929 resultados para C51 - Model Construction and Estimation


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Current EU Directives force the Member States to assure by 2020 that 70% of the Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste is recovered instead of landfilled. While some countries have largely achieved this target, others still have a long way to go. For better understanding the differences arising from local disparities, six factors related to technical, economic, legislative and environmental aspects have been identified as crucial influences in the market share of C&D waste recycling solutions. These factors are able to identify the causes that limit the recycling rate of a certain region. Moreover, progress towards an efficient waste management can vary through the improvement of a single factor. This study provides the background for further fine-tuning the factors and their combination into a mathematical model for assessing the market share of C&D recycling solutions.

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This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

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Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

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An approach for knowledge extraction from the information arriving to the knowledge base input and also new knowledge distribution over knowledge subsets already present in the knowledge base is developed. It is also necessary to realize the knowledge transform into parameters (data) of the model for the following decision-making on the given subset. It is assumed to realize the decision-making with the fuzzy sets’ apparatus.

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This paper outlines a novel elevation linear Fresnel reflector (ELFR) and presents and validates theoretical models defining its thermal performance. To validate the models, a series of experiments were carried out for receiver temperatures in the range of 30-100 °C to measure the heat loss coefficient, gain in heat transfer fluid (HTF) temperature, thermal efficiency, and stagnation temperature. The heat loss coefficient was underestimated due to the model exclusion of collector end heat losses. The measured HTF temperature gains were found to have a good correlation to the model predictions - less than a 5% difference. In comparison to model predictions for the thermal efficiency and stagnation temperature, measured values had a difference of -39% to +31% and 22-38%, respectively. The difference between the measured and predicted values was attributed to the low-temperature region for the experiments. It was concluded that the theoretical models are suitable for examining linear Fresnel reflector (LFR) systems and can be adopted by other researchers.

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ix Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites, in the Northwest Atlantic have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the "Western Boundary Undercurrent" (WBUC) during the development of full glacial conditions across the Marine Isotope Stage 5a/4 boundary (~70,000 years ago). Sortable silt mean grain size(sort s) measurements are employed to examine changes in near bottom flow speeds, together with carbon isotopes measured in benthic foraminifera and % planktic foraminiferal fragmentation as proxies for changes in water-mass chemistry. A depth transect of cores, spanning 1.8-4.6 km depth, allows changes in both the strength and depth of the WBUC to be constrained across millennial scale events. Sort s measurements reveal that the flow speed structure of the WBUC during warm intervals ("interstadials") was comparable to modern (Holocene) conditions. However, significant differences are observed during cold intervals, with higher relative flow speeds inferred for the shallow component of the WBUC (~2 km depth) during all cold "stadial" intervals (including Heinrich Stadial 6), and a substantial weakening of the deep component (~3-4 km) during full glacial conditions. Our results therefore reveal that the onset of full glacial conditions was associated with a regime shift to a shallower mode of circulation (involving Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water) that was quantitatively distinct from preceding cold stadial events. Furthermore, our chemical proxy data show that the physical response of the WBUC during the last glacial inception was probably coupled to basin-wide changes in the water-mass composition of the deep Northwest Atlantic.

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The viscosity of ionic liquids (ILs) has been modeled as a function of temperature and at atmospheric pressure using a new method based on the UNIFAC–VISCO method. This model extends the calculations previously reported by our group (see Zhao et al. J. Chem. Eng. Data 2016, 61, 2160–2169) which used 154 experimental viscosity data points of 25 ionic liquids for regression of a set of binary interaction parameters and ion Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann (VFT) parameters. Discrepancies in the experimental data of the same IL affect the quality of the correlation and thus the development of the predictive method. In this work, mathematical gnostics was used to analyze the experimental data from different sources and recommend one set of reliable data for each IL. These recommended data (totally 819 data points) for 70 ILs were correlated using this model to obtain an extended set of binary interaction parameters and ion VFT parameters, with a regression accuracy of 1.4%. In addition, 966 experimental viscosity data points for 11 binary mixtures of ILs were collected from literature to establish this model. All the binary data consist of 128 training data points used for the optimization of binary interaction parameters and 838 test data points used for the comparison of the pure evaluated values. The relative average absolute deviation (RAAD) for training and test is 2.9% and 3.9%, respectively.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Due to increasing integration density and operating frequency of today's high performance processors, the temperature of a typical chip can easily exceed 100 degrees Celsius. However, the runtime thermal state of a chip is very hard to predict and manage due to the random nature in computing workloads, as well as the process, voltage and ambient temperature variability (together called PVT variability). The uneven nature (both in time and space) of the heat dissipation of the chip could lead to severe reliability issues and error-prone chip behavior (e.g. timing errors). Many dynamic power/thermal management techniques have been proposed to address this issue such as dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS), clock gating and etc. However, most of such techniques require accurate knowledge of the runtime thermal state of the chip to make efficient and effective control decisions. In this work we address the problem of tracking and managing the temperature of microprocessors which include the following sub-problems: (1) how to design an efficient sensor-based thermal tracking system on a given design that could provide accurate real-time temperature feedback; (2) what statistical techniques could be used to estimate the full-chip thermal profile based on very limited (and possibly noise-corrupted) sensor observations; (3) how do we adapt to changes in the underlying system's behavior, since such changes could impact the accuracy of our thermal estimation. The thermal tracking methodology proposed in this work is enabled by on-chip sensors which are already implemented in many modern processors. We first investigate the underlying relationship between heat distribution and power consumption, then we introduce an accurate thermal model for the chip system. Based on this model, we characterize the temperature correlation that exists among different chip modules and explore statistical approaches (such as those based on Kalman filter) that could utilize such correlation to estimate the accurate chip-level thermal profiles in real time. Such estimation is performed based on limited sensor information because sensors are usually resource constrained and noise-corrupted. We also took a further step to extend the standard Kalman filter approach to account for (1) nonlinear effects such as leakage-temperature interdependency and (2) varying statistical characteristics in the underlying system model. The proposed thermal tracking infrastructure and estimation algorithms could consistently generate accurate thermal estimates even when the system is switching among workloads that have very distinct characteristics. Through experiments, our approaches have demonstrated promising results with much higher accuracy compared to existing approaches. Such results can be used to ensure thermal reliability and improve the effectiveness of dynamic thermal management techniques.

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The purpose of this study was to correlate the pre-operative imaging, vascularity of the proximal pole, and histology of the proximal pole bone of established scaphoid fracture non-union. This was a prospective non-controlled experimental study. Patients were evaluated pre-operatively for necrosis of the proximal scaphoid fragment by radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Vascular status of the proximal scaphoid was determined intra-operatively, demonstrating the presence or absence of puncate bone bleeding. Samples were harvested from the proximal scaphoid fragment and sent for pathological examination. We determined the association between the imaging and intra-operative examination and histological findings. We evaluated 19 male patients diagnosed with scaphoid nonunion. CT evaluation showed no correlation to scaphoid proximal fragment necrosis. MRI showed marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images that confirmed the histological diagnosis of necrosis in the proximal scaphoid fragment in all patients. Intra-operative assessment showed that 90% of bones had absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding, which was confirmed necrosis by microscopic examination. In scaphoid nonunion MRI images with marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images and the absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding are strong indicatives of osteonecrosis of the proximal fragment.

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This work describes the construction and testing of a simple pressurized solvent extraction (PSE) system. A mixture of acetone:water (80:20), 80 ºC and 103.5 bar, was used to extract two herbicides (Diuron and Bromacil) from a sample of polluted soil, followed by identification and quantification by high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). The system was also used to extract soybean oil (70 ºC and 69 bar) using pentane. The extracted oil was weighed and characterized through the fatty acid methyl ester analysis (myristic (< 0.3%), palmitic (16.3%), stearic (2.8%), oleic (24.5%), linoleic (46.3%), linolenic (9.6%), araquidic (0.3%), gadoleic (< 0.3%), and behenic (0.3%) acids) using high-resolution gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (HRGC-FID). PSE results were compared with those obtained using classical procedures: Soxhlet extraction for the soybean oil and solid-liquid extraction followed by solid-phase extraction (SLE-SPE) for the herbicides. The results showed: 21.25 ± 0.36% (m/m) of oil in the soybeans using the PSE system and 21.55 ± 0.65% (m/m) using the soxhlet extraction system; extraction efficiency (recovery) of herbicides Diuron and Bromacil of 88.7 ± 4.5% and 106.6 ± 8.1%, respectively, using the PSE system, and 96.8 ± 1.0% and 94.2 ± 3.9%, respectively, with the SLP-SPE system; limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) for Diuron of 0.012 mg kg-1 and 0.040 mg kg-1, respectively; LOD and LOQ for Bromacil of 0.025 mg kg-1 and 0.083 mg kg-1, respectively. The linearity used ranged from 0.04 to 1.50 mg L-1 for Diuron and from 0.08 to 1.50 mg L-1 for Bromacil. In conclusion, using the PSE system, due to high pressure and temperature, it is possible to make efficient, fast extractions with reduced solvent consumption in an inert atmosphere, which prevents sample and analyte decomposition.

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We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

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Aims. Solar colors have been determined on the uvby-beta photometric system to test absolute solar fluxes, to examine colors predicted by model atmospheres as a function of stellar parameters (T(eff), log g, [Fe/H]), and to probe zero-points of T(eff) and metallicity scales. Methods. New uvby-beta photometry is presented for 73 solar-twin candidates. Most stars of our sample have also been observed spectroscopically to obtain accurate stellar parameters. Using the stars that most closely resemble the Sun, and complementing our data with photometry available in the literature, the solar colors on the uvby-beta system have been inferred. Our solar colors are compared with synthetic solar colors computed from absolute solar spectra and from the latest Kurucz (ATLAS9) and MARCS model atmospheres. The zero-points of different T(eff) and metallicity scales are verified and corrections are proposed. Results. Our solar colors are (b - y)(circle dot) = 0.4105 +/- 0.0015, m(1,circle dot) = 0.2122 +/- 0.0018, c(1,circle dot) = 0.3319 +/- 0.0054, and beta(circle dot) = 2.5915 +/- 0.0024. The (b - y)(circle dot) and m(1,circle dot) colors obtained from absolute spectrophotometry of the Sun agree within 3-sigma with the solar colors derived here when the photometric zero-points are determined from either the STIS HST observations of Vega or an ATLAS9 Vega model, but the c(1,circle dot) and beta(circle dot) synthetic colors inferred from absolute solar spectra agree with our solar colors only when the zero-points based on the ATLAS9 model are adopted. The Kurucz solar model provides a better fit to our observations than the MARCS model. For photometric values computed from the Kurucz models, (b - y)(circle dot) and m(1,circle dot) are in excellent agreement with our solar colors independently of the adopted zero-points, but for c(1,circle dot) and beta circle dot agreement is found only when adopting the ATLAS9 zero-points. The c(1,circle dot) color computed from both the Kurucz and MARCS models is the most discrepant, probably revealing problems either with the models or observations in the u band. The T(eff) calibration of Alonso and collaborators has the poorest performance (similar to 140 K off), while the relation of Casagrande and collaborators is the most accurate (within 10 K). We confirm that the Ramirez & Melendez uvby metallicity calibration, recommended by Arnadottir and collaborators to obtain [Fe/H] in F, G, and K dwarfs, needs a small (similar to 10%) zero-point correction to place the stars and the Sun on the same metallicity scale. Finally, we confirm that the c(1) index in solar analogs has a strong metallicity sensitivity.

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There are about 7500 water treatment plants in Brazil. The wastes these plants generate in their decantation tanks and filters are discharged directly into the same brooks and rivers that supply water for treatment. Another serious environmental problem is the unregulated disposal of construction and demolition rubble, which increases the expenditure of public resources by degrading the urban environment and contributing to aggravate flooding and the proliferation of vectors harmful to public health. In this study, an evaluation was made of the possibility of recycling water treatment sludge in construction and demolition waste recycling plants. The axial compressive strength and water absorption of concretes and mortars produced with the exclusive and joint addition of these two types of waste was also determined. The ecoefficiency of this recycling was evaluated by determining the concentration of aluminum in the leached extract resulting from the solubilization of the recycled products. The production of concretes and mortars with the joint addition of water treatment sludge and recycled concrete rubble aggregates proved to be a viable recycling alternative from the standpoint of axial compression strength, modulus of elasticity, water absorption and tensile strength by the Brazilian test method. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Construction and Demolition Waste (CDW) represents. about 50% of the total Brazilian municipal solid waste: thus, recycling represents huge benefits both in environmental and economic perspectives. Herein, the chemical characterization results of three samples from two different recycling plants from the State of Sao Paulo is prevented. The results demonstrated that the visual classification into grey and red is not related to the chemical composition but mostly to the grain size fraction. The chemical composition of the CDW varies according to the content of cement paste, natural aggregates (quartz sand or granite), red ceramic and clay. Furthermore, the production of recycled concrete aggregates requires two crushing stages to meet the technical standards. The sand fraction (below 4.8 mm) presents high grades of SiO(2), which indicates the liberation of cement paste to fines (< 0.15 mm). The fines have a great potential to be used in the cement industry.