Temperature-dependent fecundity and life table of the fennel aphid hyadaphis foeniculi (passerini) (hemiptera: aphididae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Aircraft selection with DEA's triple index: an approach for sustainability

The objective of this paper is to present a benefit-cost ranking of 127 civil transport aircraft; this ranking was determined considering a new data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, called triple index, which combines three assessment methods: 1) standard frontier, 2) inverted index; 3) cross-multiplicative index. The analysis used the following inputs: a) market price; b) direct operating costs; and as outputs: a) payload, b) cruise speed; c) maximum rate of climb with a single engine. To ensure the homogeneity of the units, the aircrafts were divided according to the propulsion system (jet and turboprop) and size (regional, narrow-body and wide-body); they were also evaluated according to different ranges in order to identify the aircraft with the best cost-benefit relationship for each option.

The effect of sodium fluoride preservative and storage temperature on the stability of cocaine in horse blood, sheep vitreous and deer muscle

The in vitro stability of cocaine in horse blood, sheep vitreous humour (VH) and homogenised deer muscle is described. The stability of cocaine in horse blood was of interest because many toxicology laboratories utilise horse blood for the preparation of calibration and check standards and the latter are typically stored during routine use. The storage stability of cocaine in human VH and muscle has not been previously reported. In the absence of blank human VH and muscle, cocaine stability under varying conditions was demonstrated in animal tissues. Blood and VH were stored with and without addition of NaF at room temperature (RT), 4 degrees C and -18 degrees C for 84 days. Muscle homogenates were prepared in water, water/2% NaF, and phosphate buffer (pH 6.0)/2% NaF, and stored for 31 days at RT, 4 degrees C and -18 degrees C. Cocaine stability in human muscle obtained from cocaine positive forensic cases was assessed following storage at -18 degrees C for 13 months. Cocaine and benzoylecgonine (BZE) were extracted using SPE and quantified by GC-MS/MS. Cocaine was stable for 7 days in refrigerated (4 degrees C) horse blood fortified with 1 and 2% NaF. In the absence of NaF, cocaine was not detectable by day 7 in blood stored at RT and 4 degrees C and had declined by 81% following storage at -18 degrees C. At 4 degrees C the rate of cocaine degradation in blood preserved with 2% NaF was significantly slower than with 1% NaF. The stability of cocaine in horse blood appeared to be less than that reported for human blood, probably attributable to the presence of carboxylesterase in horse plasma. Cocaine stored in VH at -18 degrees C was essentially stable for the study period whereas at 4 degrees C concentrations decreased by >50% in preserved and unpreserved VH stored for longer than 14 days. Fluoride did not significantly affect cocaine stability in VH. The stability of cocaine in muscle tissue homogenates significantly exceeded that in blood and VH at every temperature. In preserved and unpreserved samples stored at 4 degrees C and below, cocaine loss did not exceed 2%. The increased stability of cocaine in muscle was attributed to the low initial pH of post-mortem muscle. In tissue from one human case stored for 13 months at -18 degrees C the muscle cocaine concentration declined by only 15% (range: 5-22%). These findings promote the use of human muscle as a toxicological specimen in which cocaine may be detected for longer compared with blood or VH. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Troposphere Calibration Techniques for Deep Space Probe Tracking

Ground-based Earth troposphere calibration systems play an important role in planetary exploration, especially to carry out radio science experiments aimed at the estimation of planetary gravity fields. In these experiments, the main observable is the spacecraft (S/C) range rate, measured from the Doppler shift of an electromagnetic wave transmitted from ground, received by the spacecraft and coherently retransmitted back to ground. If the solar corona and interplanetary plasma noise is already removed from Doppler data, the Earth troposphere remains one of the main error sources in tracking observables. Current Earth media calibration systems at NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) stations are based upon a combination of weather data and multidirectional, dual frequency GPS measurements acquired at each station complex. In order to support Cassini’s cruise radio science experiments, a new generation of media calibration systems were developed, driven by the need to achieve the goal of an end-to-end Allan deviation of the radio link in the order of 3×〖10〗^(-15) at 1000 s integration time. The future ESA’s Bepi Colombo mission to Mercury carries scientific instrumentation for radio science experiments (a Ka-band transponder and a three-axis accelerometer) which, in combination with the S/C telecommunication system (a X/X/Ka transponder) will provide the most advanced tracking system ever flown on an interplanetary probe. Current error budget for MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment) allows the residual uncalibrated troposphere to contribute with a value of 8×〖10〗^(-15) to the two-way Allan deviation at 1000 s integration time. The current standard ESA/ESTRACK calibration system is based on a combination of surface meteorological measurements and mathematical algorithms, capable to reconstruct the Earth troposphere path delay, leaving an uncalibrated component of about 1-2% of the total delay. In order to satisfy the stringent MORE requirements, the short time-scale variations of the Earth troposphere water vapor content must be calibrated at ESA deep space antennas (DSA) with more precise and stable instruments (microwave radiometers). In parallel to this high performance instruments, ESA ground stations should be upgraded to media calibration systems at least capable to calibrate both troposphere path delay components (dry and wet) at sub-centimetre level, in order to reduce S/C navigation uncertainties. The natural choice is to provide a continuous troposphere calibration by processing GNSS data acquired at each complex by dual frequency receivers already installed for station location purposes. The work presented here outlines the troposphere calibration technique to support both Deep Space probe navigation and radio science experiments. After an introduction to deep space tracking techniques, observables and error sources, in Chapter 2 the troposphere path delay is widely investigated, reporting the estimation techniques and the state of the art of the ESA and NASA troposphere calibrations. Chapter 3 deals with an analysis of the status and the performances of the NASA Advanced Media Calibration (AMC) system referred to the Cassini data analysis. Chapter 4 describes the current release of a developed GNSS software (S/W) to estimate the troposphere calibration to be used for ESA S/C navigation purposes. During the development phase of the S/W a test campaign has been undertaken in order to evaluate the S/W performances. A description of the campaign and the main results are reported in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents a preliminary analysis of microwave radiometers to be used to support radio science experiments. The analysis has been carried out considering radiometric measurements of the ESA/ESTEC instruments installed in Cabauw (NL) and compared with the requirements of MORE. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the results obtained and defines some key technical aspects to be evaluated and taken into account for the development phase of future instrumentation.

Modelling the effects of nitrogen deposition and carbon dioxide enrichment on forest carbon balance

Atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) has increased over the last 250 years, mainly due to human activities. Of total anthropogenic emissions, almost 31% has been sequestered by the terrestrial biosphere. A considerable contribution to this sink comes from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere, which contain a large amount of carbon (C) stored as biomass and soil organic matter. Several potential drivers for this forest C sequestration have been proposed, including increasing atmospheric [CO2], temperature, nitrogen (N) deposition and changes in management practices. However, it is not known which of these drivers are most important. The overall aim of this thesis project was to develop a simple ecosystem model which explicitly incorporates our best understanding of the mechanisms by which these drivers affect forest C storage, and to use this model to investigate the sensitivity of the forest ecosystem to these drivers. I firstly developed a version of the Generic Decomposition and Yield (G’DAY) model to explicitly investigate the mechanisms leading to forest C sequestration following N deposition. Specifically, I modified the G’DAY model to include advances in understanding of C allocation, canopy N uptake, and leaf trait relationships. I also incorporated a simple forest management practice subroutine. Secondly, I investigated the effect of CO2 fertilization on forest productivity with relation to the soil N availability feedback. I modified the model to allow it to simulate short-term responses of deciduous forests to environmental drivers, and applied it to data from a large-scale forest Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment. Finally, I used the model to investigate the combined effects of recent observed changes in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition, and climate on a European forest stand. The model developed in my thesis project was an effective tool for analysis of effects of environmental drivers on forest ecosystem C storage. Key results from model simulations include: (i) N availability has a major role in forest ecosystem C sequestration; (ii) atmospheric N deposition is an important driver of N availability on short and long time-scales; (iii) rising temperature increases C storage by enhancing soil N availability and (iv) increasing [CO2] significantly affects forest growth and C storage only when N availability is not limiting.

Studio del processo CVI/CVD per lo sviluppo di compositi ceramici rinforzati a fibra lunga

The most relevant thermo-mechanical properties of SiC or C based CFCCs are high strength, high toughness, low weight, high reliability, thermal shock and fatigue resistance. Thanks to these special characteristics, the CFCCs are the best candidates to substitute metals and monolithic ceramics, traditionally employed to realize components in energy, aeronautic and nuclear fields. Among the commonly techniques for the CFCCs production, CVI still represents the most significant one. Its main advantages are the versatility, the high quality deposits and the fact that it is conducted under mild temperature conditions. On the other hand, this technique is quite complex, therefore the set up of all process parameters needs long development time. The main purpose of the present study was to analyze the parameters controlling the CVD and CVI processes. Specifically, deposition and infiltration of SiC and Py-C tests were conducted on non-porous and porous substrates. The experiments were performed with a pilot size Isothermal/Isobaric CVI plant, designed and developed by ENEA. To guarantee the control of the process parameters, a previously optimization of the plant was needed. Changing temperature, pressure, flow rates and methane/hydrogen ratio, the Py-C deposition rate value, for an optimal fibre/matrix interphase thickness, was determined. It was also underlined the hydrogen inhibiting effect over the Py-C deposition rate. Regarding SiC morphologies, a difference between the inner and outer substrate surfaces was observed, as a consequence of a flow rate non-uniformity. In the case of the Cf/C composites development, the key parameter of the CVI process was the gas residence time. In fact, the hydrogen inhibiting effect was evident only with high value of residence time. Furthermore, lower the residence time more homogeneous the Py-C deposition rate was obtained along the reaction chamber axis. Finally, a CVD and CVI theoretical modelling was performed.

Effect of different management intensities on natural and human-induced carbon fluxes in a golf course in northern Italy

Turfgrasses are ubiquitous in urban landscape and their role on carbon (C) cycle is increasing important also due to the considerable footprint related to their management practices. It is crucial to understand the mechanisms driving the C assimilation potential of these terrestrial ecosystems Several approaches have been proposed to assess C dynamics: micro-meteorological methods, small-chamber enclosure system (SC), chrono-sequence approach and various models. Natural and human-induced variables influence turfgrasses C fluxes. Species composition, environmental conditions, site characteristics, former land use and agronomic management are the most important factors considered in literature driving C sequestration potential. At the same time different approaches seem to influence C budget estimates. In order to study the effect of different management intensities on turfgrass, we estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE) through a SC approach in a hole of a golf course in the province of Verona (Italy) for one year. The SC approach presented several advantages but also limits related to the measurement frequency, timing and duration overtime, and to the methodological errors connected to the measuring system. Daily CO2 fluxes changed according to the intensity of maintenance, likely due to different inputs and disturbances affecting biogeochemical cycles, combined also to the different leaf area index (LAI). The annual cumulative NEE decreased with the increase of the intensity of management. NEE was related to the seasonality of turfgrass, following temperatures and physiological activity. Generally on the growing season CO2 fluxes towards atmosphere exceeded C sequestered. The cumulative NEE showed a system near to a steady state for C dynamics. In the final part greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions due to fossil fuel consumption for turfgrass upkeep were estimated, pinpointing that turfgrass may result a considerable C source. The C potential of trees and shrubs needs to be considered to obtain a complete budget.

Tracing of 15N in a mountain spruce forest: comparison of experimental data with th TRACE model

Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.

Effects of carbonation on the mineral composition of cement kiln dust

Due to their relatively high calcium oxide content, industrial mineral oxide wastes are potential candidates for mineral sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2). Cement kiln dust (CKD), a byproduct of cement manufacturing contains 20-60% CaO making it a possible candidate for CO2 sequestration. In this study, three types of CKD are characterized, before and after carbonation, using environmental scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive x-ray microanalysis to determine the mineralogical and morphological changes occurring due to carbonation. The reactants, products, and precipitation mechanisms were investigated to enhance understanding of the governing processes and allow better utilization of CKD for CO2 sequestration. The results of multiple independent analyses confirmed the formation of CaCO3 during carbonation. Examinations of the reaction pathways found that CaO and calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) were the major reactants. Three types of CaCO3 precipitation mechanisms were observed: (1) diffusion of CO2 into Ca(OH)2 particles causing precipitation in the pores of the particle and the growth of a CaCO3 ring from the outside inward, (2) precipitation onto existing particles, and (3) precipitation from aqueous solution. The growth of a CaCO3 ring on the outside of a particle may slow further diffusion of CO2 into a particle slowing iv the overall sequestration rate. Additionally, changes caused by carbonation in the solubility of trace metals were studied by mixing pre- and post-carbonated CKD with water and analyzing the solution using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Decreases in the leaching of chromium, lead, and copper were observed, and is an incentive for use of CKD for CO2 sequestration. Equilibrium modeling using PHREEQC confirmed that CaO and Ca(OH)2 would carbonate readily and form CaCO3.

Simple measures of climate, soil properties and plant traits predict national-scale grassland soil carbon stocks

Soil carbon (C) storage is a key ecosystem service. Soil C stocks play a vital role in soil fertility and climate regulation, but the factors that control these stocks at regional and national scales are unknown, particularly when their composition and stability are considered. As a result, their mapping relies on either unreliable proxy measures or laborious direct measurements. Using data from an extensive national survey of English grasslands, we show that surface soil (0–7 cm) C stocks in size fractions of varying stability can be predicted at both regional and national scales from plant traits and simple measures of soil and climatic conditions. Soil C stocks in the largest pool, of intermediate particle size (50–250 μm), were best explained by mean annual temperature (MAT), soil pH and soil moisture content. The second largest C pool, highly stable physically and biochemically protected particles (0·45–50 μm), was explained by soil pH and the community abundance-weighted mean (CWM) leaf nitrogen (N) content, with the highest soil C stocks under N-rich vegetation. The C stock in the small active fraction (250–4000 μm) was explained by a wide range of variables: MAT, mean annual precipitation, mean growing season length, soil pH and CWM specific leaf area; stocks were higher under vegetation with thick and/or dense leaves. Testing the models describing these fractions against data from an independent English region indicated moderately strong correlation between predicted and actual values and no systematic bias, with the exception of the active fraction, for which predictions were inaccurate. Synthesis and applications. Validation indicates that readily available climate, soils and plant survey data can be effective in making local- to landscape-scale (1–100 000 km2) soil C stock predictions. Such predictions are a crucial component of effective management strategies to protect C stocks and enhance soil C sequestration.

Organic matter preservation in sediments of the Peru and Oman continental margin

Detailed petrographical and bulk geochemical investigations of organic matter (OM) have been performed on sediments deposited below or close to upwelling areas offshore Peru (ODP-Leg 112; Sites 679, 681, 688) and Oman (ODP-Leg 117; Sites 720, 723, 724) in order to obtain a quantitative understanding of its accumulation and degradation. Microscopical as well as nanoscopical investigations reveal that the OM in sediments affected by upwelling mechanisms mainly (up to 98%) consists of unstructured (amorphous) organic aggregates without any apparent biological structures. In sediments which are not or to a lesser extent affected by upwelling (Site 720) terrestrial OM predominates. Organic carbon (TOC) contents are highly variable and range between 9.8% in sediments deposited below upwelling cells and 0.2% in sediments outside the upwelling zone. The TOC/sulphur ratios of the sediments scatter widely. The samples from the deep-water locations (Sites 688 and 720), show C/S-ratios of "normal" marine sediments, whereas at the other locations no correlation or even a negative correlation between sulphur and TOC concentration exists. In most of the upwelling-influenced sediments OM contains a significant amount of sulphur. The incorporation of sulphur into the OM followed microbial sulphate reduction and occurred in the upper meters of the sedimentary column. Below, OM is still present in vast amounts and relatively hydrogen-rich, but is nevertheless non-metabolizable and becomes the limiting factor for bacterial sulphate reduction. According to mass balance calculations 90-99% of the OM produced in the photic zone was remineralized and 1-3% was consumed by microbial sulphate reduction. The aerobic and anaerobic processes have greatly affected degradation and conservation of OM.

Feeding parameters of copepods from upwelling areas

Feeding patterns of mass herbivorous copepods in upwelling areas are investigated. Daily rations and aspects of their formation are examined in Calanoides carinatus (Benguela upwelling), Calanus pacificus (off the California coast), and Calanus australis (Peru upwelling). Rations were calculated based on gut plant pigment contents obtained at daily stations using laser spectrofluorometry, experimental data on the rate of gut evacuation and data on the carbon/chlorophyll ratio in phytoplankton and particulate matter at the respective stations. When phytoplankton was abundant, diel feeding rhythms were not pronounced and gut pigment level was high during the entire 24-h period. When phytoplankton biomass was low, distinct feeding rhythms were pronounced with a nocturnal maximum. During active upwelling intensive feeding on phytoplankton supports energy (respiration) and plastic (growth, development, reproduction, accumulation of reserves) metabolism of copepods. When upwelling was inactive, the surface part of the population feeds less actively and is able only partially to cover its energy expenditures. The actively growing and reproducing populations of C. pacificus and C. carinatus may consume close to 20% of primary production, whereas the inactive population of C. australis consumed only 0.2% of primary production when upwelling weakened.

Phosphorus components and barite in untreated and in carbonate-free sediments of ODP Hole 199-1221C

We determined changes in equatorial Pacific phosphorus (µmol P/g) and barite (BaSO4; wt%) concentrations at high resolution (2 cm) across the Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundary in sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 199 Site 1221 (153.40 to 154.80 meters below seafloor [mbsf]). Oxide-associated, authigenic, and organic P sequentially extracted from bulk sediment were used to distinguish reactive P from detrital P. We separated barite from bulk sediment and compared its morphology with that of modern unaltered biogenic barite to check for diagenesis. On a CaCO3-free basis, reactive P concentrations are relatively constant and high (323 µmol P/g or ~1 wt%). Barite concentrations range from 0.05 to 5.6 wt%, calculated on a CaCO3-free basis, and show significant variability over this time interval. Shipboard measurements of P and Ba in bulk sediments are systematically lower (by ~25%) than shore-based concentrations and likely indicate problems with shipboard standard calibrations. The presence of Mn oxides and the size, crystal morphology, and sulfur isotopes of barite imply deposition in sulfate-rich pore fluids. Relatively constant reactive P, organic C, and biogenic silica concentrations calculated on a CaCO3-free basis indicate generally little variation in organic C, reactive P, and biogenic opal burial across the P/E boundary, whereas variable barite concentrations indicate significant changes in export productivity. Low barite Ba/reactive P ratios before and immediately after the Benthic Extinction Event (BEE) may indicate efficient nutrient burial, and, if nutrient burial and organic C burial are linked, high relative organic C burial that could temporarily drawdown CO2 at this site. This interpretation requires postdepositional oxidation of organic C because organic C to reactive P ratios are low throughout the section. After the BEE, higher barite Ba/reactive P ratios combined with higher barite Ba concentrations may imply that higher export productivity was coupled with unchanged reactive P burial, indicating efficient nutrient and possibly also organic C recycling in the water column. If the nutrient recycling is decoupled from organic C, the high export production could be indicative of drawdown of CO2. However, the observation that organic C burial is not high where barite burial is high may imply that either C sequestration was restricted to the deep ocean and thus occurred only on timescales of the deep ocean mixing or that postdepositional oxidation (burn down) of organic matter affected the sediments. The decoupling of barite and opal may result from low opal preservation or production that is not diatom based.

Photosynthetic production in the Central Arctic during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 (IceArc) in 2012

The ice-covered Central Arctic Ocean is characterized by low primary productivity due to light and nutrient limitations. It has been speculated that the recent reduction in ice cover could lead to a substantial increase in primary production, but still little is known as to the fate of the ice-associated primary production, and of nutrient supply with increasing warming. This study presents results from the Central Arctic Ocean collected during summer 2012, when sea-ice reached a minimum extent since the onset of satellite observations. Net primary productivity (NPP) was measured in water column, sea ice and melt ponds by 14CO2 uptake at different irradiances. Photosynthesis vs. irradiance (PI) curves were established in laboratory experiments and used to upscale measured NPP to the deep Eurasian Basin (north of 78°N) using the irradiance-based Central Arctic Ocean Primary Productivity model (CAOPP). In addition, new annual production was calculated from the seasonal nutrient drawdown in the mixed layer since last winter. Results show that ice algae can contribute up to 60% to primary production in the Central Arctic at the end of the season. The ice-covered water column had lower NPP rates than open water probably due to light limitation. According to the nutrient ratios in the euphotic zone, nitrate limitation was detected in the Siberian Seas (Laptev Sea area), while silicate was the main limiting nutrient at the ice margin influenced by Atlantic waters. Although sea-ice cover was substantially reduced in 2012, total annual new production in the Eurasian Basin was 17 ± 7 Tg C/yr, which is similar to previous estimates. However, when including the contribution by sub-ice algal filaments, the annual production for the deep Eurasian Basin (north of 78°N) is 16 Tg C/yr higher than estimated before. Our data suggest that sub-ice algae might be responsible for potential local increases in NPP due to higher light availability under the ice, and their ability to benefit from a wider area of nutrients as they drift with the ice.

Metabolic rates and tissue composition of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa over 12 latitudes in the Red Sea characterized by strong temperature and nutrient gradient

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12 degrees latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5 degrees N, 21-27 degrees C) and southern (16.5 degrees N, 28-33 degrees C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29 degrees C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals