998 resultados para Business forecasting


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In recent years, domestic business-to-business barter has become institutionalized as an alternative marketing exchange system in Australia, and elsewhere. This article reports the findings of a survey of 164 members of Australia's largest trade exchange, Bartercard There are few, if any, published empirical studies on this topic. This study is exploratory. Most firms surveyed are small firms in the services sectors. Although Bartercard has an extensive membership, trading within the system is limited with most members trading less than once per week and with barter transactions contributing less than 5% of their annual gross sales. The main benefits of membership include new customers and increased sales and networking opportunities. The main limitations include the limited functionality of the trade dollar limited trading opportunities, and practical trading difficulties. In selling, there appears to be no differential between the cash and trade prices, whereas trade dollars are discounted in purchasing. Participants acknowledge that business-to-business barter will remain and grow regardless of cyclical macroeconomic changes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

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This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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This article`s main purpose consists in showing how family and ownership cultures may influence the process of making a ""well-performing"" organization, based on an empirical study in family business in Brazil. The study aimed to find critical moments of company`s history and the focus was to compare critical moments with the three-dimension model of family business development proposed by Davis et al. (1996). Through facts sequence, research was organized so as to find how the process influenced company`s professionalization. The article concludes that family and its value and culture may impact on the evolution, and the first step to organize a company is to organize the family that leads the company.

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In this short article we use a simple differences-in-clifferences technique to investigate whether bilateral correlation of business cycles increased more amongst members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) after the implementation of the Euro than amidst other OECD economies. We present evidence suggesting this to be the case. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents the results of a study on the analysis of training needs regarding environmental (green) management and climate change topics in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil and its implications on education for sustainable development. It reports on an e-mail survey of Brazilian small enterprises, whose results indicate that they are indeed interested in environmental management and climate change topics in an education for sustainable development context. The study indicates that proposals for courses on environmental management and climate change should follow a systemic perspective and take sustainable development into account. By applying factor analysis, it was found that the topics of interest can be grouped into thematic modules, which can be useful in the design of training courses for the top management leaders of those companies.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the major impacts on developing nations and food-producing countries Within this macro-environment of food chains, there is concern that food inflation might come back sooner than expected The role of China as one of the major food consumers in the future, and Brazil, as the major food producer, is described as the food bridge, and an agenda of common development of these countries suggested. Design/methodology/approach - This paper reviews literature on muses of food inflation, production shortages, and investigation of programs to solve the problem in the future, it is also based on author`s personal insights and experience of working on this field in the last 15 years, and recent discussions in forums and interviews Findings - The major factors that jointly caused food prices increase in 2007/2008 were population growth, Income distribution, urbanization, dollar devaluations, commodity funds, social programs, production shortages, and bionic`s A list of ten policies is suggested. horizontal expansion of food production, vertical expansion, reduction in transaction costs, in protectionism and other taxes, investment in logistics, technology and better coordination, contracts, new generation of fertilizers and to use the best sources of biofuels. Originality/value - Two major outputs from this paper are the ""food demand model"" that inserts in one model the trends and muses of food inflation and the solutions, and the ""food bridge concept"" that also aligns in one box the imminent major food chain cooperation between China and Brazil

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Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

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