Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

[need For Orthodontic Treatment Among Brazilian Adolescents: Evaluation Based On Public Health].

To identify the prevalence and the severity of malocclusions and to analyze factors associated with the need for orthodontic treatment of Brazilian adolescents. This exploratory, cross-sectional study was carried out based on secondary data from the national epidemiological survey on oral health in Brazil (2002-2003). Socio-demographic conditions, self-perception, and the existence and degree of malocclusion, using the Dental Aesthetic Index, were evaluated in 16,833 adolescent Brazilians selected by probabilistic sample by conglomerates. The dependent variable - need orthodontic treatment - was estimated from the severity of malocclusion. The magnitude and direction of the association in bivariate and multivariate analyzes from a Robust Poisson regression was estimated RESULTS: The majority of the adolescents needed orthodontic treatment (53.2%). In the multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the need for orthodontic treatment was larger among females, non-whites, those that perceived a need for treatment, and those that perceived their appearance as normal, bad, or very bad. The need for orthodontic treatment was smaller among those that lived in the Northeast and Central West macro-regions compared to those living in Southeast Brazil and it was also smaller among those that perceived their chewing to be normal or their oral health to be bad or very bad. There was a high prevalence of orthodontic treatment need among adolescents in Brazil and this need was associated with demographic and subjective issues. The high prevalence of orthodontic needs in adolescents is a challenge to the goals of Brazil's universal public health system.

Color/race inequalities in oral health among Brazilian adolescents

This study assessed oral health outcomes (perceived dental treatment need, untreated dental caries, gingival bleeding, periodontal pockets, and pain in teeth and gums), in relation to color/race inequalities among adolescents in each Brazilian region. The database included dental examination and interview of 16,833 15-19-year-old adolescents, surveyed by the Brazilian health authority, from May 2002 to October 2003, in accordance with international diagnostic criteria standardized by the World Health Organization. Prevalence ratios estimated by Poisson regression, and controlled by socioeconomic status and access to fluoridated piped water, assessed oral health differentials among color/race groups and country's regions. Except for periodontal pockets, prevalence figures were higher in the North and Northeast: perceived dental treatment needs, untreated dental caries, gingival bleeding at probing and pain in teeth and gums varied between 80-83%, 75-76%, 38-43%, and 17-18%, respectively, in these regions. Adolescents living in the Southeast - the richest Brazilian region - presented a better general profile of oral health than their counterparts living in the remaining regions; they had a lower prevalence of untreated dental caries (54%) and unfavorable gingival status (29%). However, the Southeast presented color/race inequalities in all oral health outcomes, with a poorer profile systematically affecting browns or blacks, depending on the oral health condition under consideration. These results reinforce the need for expanding the amplitude of health initiatives aimed at adolescent oral health. Socially appropriate health programs should concurrently aim at the reduction of levels of oral disease and its inequalities.

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996-2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996-2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

A costs structure analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies

The Brazil consolidated itself as the largest world producer of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol. The creation of the Programa Nacional do Alcool - PROALCOOL and the growing use of cars with flexible motors were some of the factors that helped to motivate still more the production. Evolutions in the agricultural and industrial research did the Brazilian competitiveness in sugar and ethanol globally elevated, what is evidenced when comparing the amount produced at the country and the production costs, which turned a big one differential. Therefore, the administration of costs is of great relevance to the sugar and ethanol companies, for representing a significant rationalization in the production processes, with economy of resources and the reach of better earnings, besides reducing the operational risk pertinent at the fixed costs of production. Thus, the present work has for objective to analyze the costs structure of sugar and ethanol companies of the Center-south area of the country through an empiric-analytical study based in methodologies and concepts extracted of the costs accounting. It is verified that great part of the costs and operational expenses have variable behavior, a positive factor for the sector reducing the operational risk of the activity. The main restraint of this study is the sample of five years and 10% of the number of plants in Brazil that although they represent 30% of the national production, don`t allow the generalization of the model.

The Brazilian Business World: the difficult adaptation to globalization

The article deals with the internationalization of Brazilian businesses in the current decade. In the 1990s, Brazil embraced economic neoliberalism and promoted a huge opening up of its economy. At that time, Brazilian companies had to adapt rapidly. Twenty years later, the country has reinforced its presence in Latin America and has ensured a better position in the global markets, especially by through agricultural exports.

Brazilian external sector so far in the 21st century

Although Brazil has traditionally been characterized by a culture of inward-looking policy making, the presence of foreign firms in the Brazilian productive sector has always been significant. The share of foreign-owned firms is one of the highest that can be found among developing countries. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies

Edentulism and shortened dental arch in Brazilian elderly from the National Survey of Oral Health 2003

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution of edentulism and estimate the prevalence of functional dentition and shortened dental arch among elderly population. METHODS: A population-based epidemiological study was carried out with a sample of 5,349 respondents aged 65 to 74 years obtained from the 2002 and 2003 Brazilian Ministry of Health/Division of Oral Health survey database. The following variables were studied: gender; macroregion of residence; missing teeth; percentage that met the World Health Organization goal for oral health in the age group 65 to 74 years (50% having at least 20 natural teeth); presence of shortened dental arch; number of posterior occluding pairs of teeth. The Chi-square test assessed the association between categorical variables. The Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used to assess differences of mean between number of posterior occluding pairs teeth, macro-region and gender. RESULTS: The elderly population had an average of 5.49 teeth (SD: 7.93) with a median of 0. The proportion of completely edentulous respondents was 54.7%. Complete edentulism was 18.2% in the upper arch and 1.9% in the lower arch. The World Health Organization goal was achieved in 10% of all respondents studied. However, only 2.7% had acceptable masticatory function and aesthetics (having at least shortened dental arch) and a mean number of posterior occluding pairs of 6.94 (SD=2.97). There were significant differences of the percentage of respondents that met the World Health Organization goal and presence of shortened dental arch between men and women. There were differences in shortened dental arch between macroregions. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian epidemiological oral health survey showed high rate of edentulism and low rate of shortened dental arch in the elderly population studied, thus suggesting significant functional and aesthetic impairment in all Brazilian macroregions especially among women.

ERICA: prevalence of asthma in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the prevalence of asthma and physician-diagnosed asthma in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS Cross-sectional, national, school-based study with adolescents from 12 to 17 years old, participants in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA). The study stratified the sample by region and grouped according to schools and classes with representativeness to the set of cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants of the Country, macro-regions, capitals, and Federal District. A questionnaire collected data through a self-filled in method. We calculated the prevalences and their confidence intervals of 95% (95%CI) according to sex, age group, type of school and skin color. RESULTS Between 2013 and 2014, 74,589 adolescents were evaluated, 55.3% of the female sex. The total prevalence of active asthma was of 13.1% (95%CI 12.1-13.9), being higher in girls (14.8%; 95%CI 13.7-16.0) when compared to boys (11.2%; 95%CI 10.3-12.2) in all geographical strata examined. It was also higher between students of private schools (15.9%; 95%CI 14.2-17.7) when compared to public ones (12.4%; 95%CI 11.4-13.4). It was higher in the Southeast region (14.5%; 95%CI 12.9-16.1), and in the city of Sao Paulo (16.7%; 95%CI 14.7-18.7). The lowest prevalence was observed in North region (9.7%; 95%CI 9.7-10.5), and in Teresina (6.3%; 95%CI 4.9-7.7). The prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma was of 8.7% (95%CI 8.2-9.1); higher in the North region (13.5%; 95%CI 12.7-14.2), and in Porto Alegre (19.8%; 95%CI 17.5-22.3). It was lower in the Midwest (6.9%; 95%CI 6.0-7.8), and in Cuiaba (4.8%; 95%CI 3.8-5.9). We found no significant difference in the expression of this rate between the sexes, as well as in other variables evaluated by the study. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of asthma in Brazilian adolescents is high. Rates of active asthma and physician-diagnosed asthma vary widely in different regions and capitals evaluated by the ERICA. These results may assist in the preparation of preventive programs and policies on health and a better understanding of the factors associated with asthma in this age group.

ERICA: patterns of alcohol consumption in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the patterns of alcohol consumption in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We investigated adolescents who participated in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA). This is a cross-sectional, national and school-based study, which surveyed adolescents of 1,247 schools from 124 Brazilian municipalities. Participants answered a self-administered questionnaire with a section on alcoholic beverages consumption. Measures of relative frequency (prevalence), and their 95% confidence intervals, were estimated for the following variables: use of alcohol beverages in the last 30 days, frequency of use, number of glasses or doses consumed in the period, age of the first use of alcohol, and most consumed type of drink. Data were estimated for country and macro-region, sex, and age group. The module survey of the Stata program was used for data analysis of complex sample. RESULTS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents, who accounted for 72.9% of eligible students. About 1/5 of adolescents consumed alcohol at least once in the last 30 days and about 2/3 in one or two occasions during this period. Among the adolescents who consumed alcoholic beverages, 24.1% drank it for the first time before being 12 years old, and the most common type of alcoholic beverages consumed by them were drinks based on vodka, rum or tequila, and beer. CONCLUSIONS There is a high prevalence of alcohol consumption among adolescents, as well as their early onset of alcohol use. We also identified a possible change in the preferred type of alcoholic beverages compared with previous research.

ERICA: prevalences of hypertension and obesity in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of arterial hypertension and obesity and the population attributable fraction of hypertension that is due to obesity in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS Data from participants in the Brazilian Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), which was the first national school-based, cross-section study performed in Brazil were evaluated. The sample was divided into 32 geographical strata and clusters from 32 schools and classes, with regional and national representation. Obesity was classified using the body mass index according to age and sex. Arterial hypertension was defined when the average systolic or diastolic blood pressure was greater than or equal to the 95th percentile of the reference curve. Prevalences and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) of arterial hypertension and obesity, both on a national basis and in the macro-regions of Brazil, were estimated by sex and age group, as were the fractions of hypertension attributable to obesity in the population. RESULTS We evaluated 73,399 students, 55.4% female, with an average age of 14.7 years (SD = 1.6). The prevalence of hypertension was 9.6% (95%CI 9.0-10.3); with the lowest being in the North, 8.4% (95%CI 7.7-9.2) and Northeast regions, 8.4% (95%CI 7.6-9.2), and the highest being in the South, 12.5% (95%CI 11.0-14.2). The prevalence of obesity was 8.4% (95%CI 7.9-8.9), which was lower in the North region and higher in the South region. The prevalences of arterial hypertension and obesity were higher in males. Obese adolescents presented a higher prevalence of hypertension, 28.4% (95%CI 25.5-31.2), than overweight adolescents, 15.4% (95%CI 17.0-13.8), or eutrophic adolescents, 6.3% (95%CI 5.6-7.0). The fraction of hypertension attributable to obesity was 17.8%. CONCLUSIONS ERICA was the first nationally representative Brazilian study providing prevalence estimates of hypertension in adolescents. Regional and sex differences were observed. The study indicates that the control of obesity would lower the prevalence of hypertension among Brazilian adolescents by 1/5.

ERICA: sexual initiation and contraception in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of sexual initiation and contraceptive use at the last sexual intercourse of Brazilian adolescents, according to sociodemographic features. METHODS The data were obtained from the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), a national school-based cross-sectional study. We included 74,589 adolescents from 32 geographic strata (27 capitals and five sets of municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants of each of the five macro-regions of the Country). Information on sexual initiation and contraceptive use at the last sexual intercourse (male condom and oral contraceptive pill) has been used. We have estimated prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) considering sample weights according to sex, age, type of school, residence status, macro-region and capitals. RESULTS We observed that 28.1% (95%CI 27.0-29.2) of the adolescents had already initiated sexual life, with higher prevalence among those aged 17 years (56.4%, 95%CI 53.9-58.9), males (33.5%, 95%CI 31.8-35.2), studying at public schools (29.9%, 95%CI 28.5-31.4), and from the Northern region (33.9%, 95%CI 32.3-35.4), mainly from Macapa, Manaus, and Rio Branco. Among those who had started their sexual life, 82.3% (95%CI 81.1-83.4) reported the use of contraceptive methods at the last intercourse, and the prevalence of use was higher among adolescents aged 17 years (85.3%, 95%CI 82.7-87.6), females (85.2%, 95%CI 83.8-86.5) and those living in the Southern region (85.9%, 95%CI 82.9-88.5). Male condom was used by 68.8% (95%CI 66.9-70.7), with no difference by type of school or macro-regions; the contraceptive pill was used by 13.4% (CI95% 12.2-14.6), and more frequently used among women (24.7%, 95%CI 22.5-27,0) and 17-year-old adolescents (20.8%, 95%CI 18.2-23.6) from urban settings(13.7%, 95%CI 12.5-14.9) and from the Southern region (22.6%, 95%CI 19.0-26.8), and less often in the Northern region. CONCLUSIONS ERICA’s data analysis on sexuality and contraception shows heterogeneities in the prevalence of sexual initiation and use of contraceptive methods among Brazilian adolescents, depending on their age, where they live, and the type of school they study at. Younger adolescents and those living in the Northern region seem to be more vulnerable to the consequences of unprotected sexual intercourses.

ERICA: prevalence of common mental disorders in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the prevalence of common mental disorders in Brazilian adolescent students, according to geographical macro-regions, school type, sex, and age. METHODS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents who participated in the Cardiovascular Risk Study in Adolescents (ERICA), a cross-sectional, national, school-based study conducted in 2013-2014 in cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. A self-administered questionnaire and an electronic data collector were employed. The presence of common mental disorders was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). We estimated prevalence and 95% confidence intervals of common mental disorders by sex, age, and school type, in Brazil and in the macro-regions, considering the sample design. RESULTS The prevalence of common mental disorders was of 30.0% (95%CI 29.2-30.8), being higher among girls (38.4%; 95%CI 37.1-39.7) when compared to boys (21.6%; 95%CI 20.5-22.8), and among adolescents who were from 15 to 17 years old (33.6%; 95%CI 32.2-35.0) compared to those aged between 12 and 14 years (26.7%; 95%CI 25.8-27.6). The prevalence of common mental disorders increased with age for both sexes, always higher in girls (ranging from 28.1% at 12 years to 44.1% at 17 years) than in boys (ranging from 18.5% at 12 years to 27.7% at 17 years). We did not observe any significant difference by macro-region or school type. Stratified analyses showed higher prevalence of common mental disorders among girls aged from 15 to 17 years of private schools in the North region (53.1; 95%CI 46.8-59.4). CONCLUSIONS The high prevalence of common mental disorders among adolescents and the fact that the symptoms are often vague mean these disorders are not so easily identified by school administrators or even by health services. The results of this study can help the proposition of more specific prevention and control measures, focused on highest risk subgroups.

ERICA: prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We evaluated 37,504 adolescents who were participants in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA), a cross-sectional, school-based, national study. The adolescents, aged from 12 to 17 years, lived in cities with populations greater than 100,000 inhabitants. The sample was stratified and clustered into schools and classes. The criteria set out by the International Diabetes Federation were used to define metabolic syndrome. Prevalences of metabolic syndrome were estimated according to sex, age group, school type and nutritional status. RESULTS Of the 37,504 adolescents who were evaluated: 50.2% were female; 54.3% were aged from 15 to 17 years, and 73.3% were from public schools. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 2.6% (95%CI 2.3-2.9), slightly higher in males and in those aged from 15 to 17 years in most macro-regions. The prevalence was the highest in residents from the South macro-region, in the younger female adolescents and in the older male adolescents. The prevalence was higher in public schools (2.8% [95%CI 2.4-3.2]), when compared with private schools (1.9% [95%CI 1.4-2.4]) and higher in obese adolescents when compared with nonobese ones. The most common combinations of components, referring to 3/4 of combinations, were: enlarged waist circumference (WC), low HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c) and high blood pressure; followed by enlarged WC, low HDL-c and high triglycerides; and enlarged WC, low HDL-c, high triglycerides and blood pressure. Low HDL was the second most frequent component, but the highest prevalence of metabolic syndrome (26.8%) was observed in the presence of high triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS ERICA is the first Brazilian nation-wide study to present the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and describe the role of its components. Despite the prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome being low, the high prevalences of some components and participation of others in the syndrome composition shows the importance of early diagnosis of this changes, even if not grouped within the metabolic syndrome.