The Serido Group of NE Brazil, a late Neoproterozoic pre- to syn-collisional basin in West Gondwana: insights from SHRIMP U-Pb detrital zircon ages and Sm-Nd crustal residence (T-DM) ages

The Serido Group is a deformed and metamorphosed metasedimentary sequence that overlies early Paleoproterozoic to Archean basement of the Rio Grande do Norte domain in the Borborema Province of NE Brazil. The age of the Serido Group has been disputed over the past two decades, with preferred sedimentation ages being either Paleoproterozoic or Neoproterozoic. Most samples of the Serido Formation, the upper part of the Serido Group, have Sm-Nd T-DM ages between 1200 and 1600 Ma. Most samples of the Jucurutu Formation, the lower part of the Serido Group, have T-DM ages ranging from 1500 to 1600 Ma; some basal units have T-DM ages as old as 2600 Ma, reflecting proximal basement. Thus, based on Sm-Nd data, most, if not all, of the Serido Group was deposited after 1600 Ma and upper parts must be younger than 1200 Ma.Cathodoluminescence photos of detrital zircons show very small to no overgrowths produced during ca. 600 Ma Brasiliano deformation and metamorphism, so that SHRIMP and isotope dilution U-Pb ages must represent crystallization ages of the detrital zircons. Zircons from meta-arkose near the base of the Jucurutu Formation yield two groups of ages: ca. 2200 Ma and ca. 1800 Ma. In contrast, zircons from a metasedimentary gneiss higher in the Jucurutu Formation yield much younger ages, with clusters at ca. 1000 Ma and ca. 650 Ma. Zircons from metasedimentary and metatuffaceous units in the Serido Formation also yield ages primarily between 1000 and 650 Ma, with clusters at 950-1000, 800, 750, and 650 Ma. Thus, most, if not all, of the Serido Group must be younger than 650 Ma. Because these units were deformed and metamorphosed in the ca. 600 Ma Brasiliano fold belt during assembly of West Gondwana, deposition probably occurred ca. 610-650 Ma, soon after crystallization of the youngest population of zircons and before or during the onset of Brasiliano deformation.The Serido Group was deposited upon Paleoproterozoic basement in a basin receiving detritus from a variety of sources. The Jucurutu Formation includes some basal volcanic rocks and initially received detritus from proximal 2.2-2.0 Ga (Transamazonian) to late Paleoproterozoic (1.8-1.7 Ga) basement. Provenance for the upper Jucurutu Formation and all of the Serido Formation was dominated by more distal and younger sources ranging in age from 1000 to 650 Ma. We suggest that the Serido basin may have developed as the result of late Neoproterozoic extension of a pre-existing continental basement, with formation of small marine basins that were largely floored by cratonic basement (subjacent oceanic crust has not yet been found). Immature sediment was initially derived from surrounding land; as the basin evolved much of the detritus probably came from highlands to the south (present coordinates). Alternatively, if the Patos shear zone is a major terrane boundary, the basin may have formed as an early collisional foredeep associated with south-dipping subduction. In any case, within 30 million years the region was compressed, deformed, and metamorphosed during final assembly of West Gondwana and formation of the Brasiliano-Pan African fold belts. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emplacement setting of the granite sheeted pluton of Esperanca (Brasiliano orogen, Northeastern Brazil)

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and isotopic (U-Pb, Sm-Nd) data were combined to study the emplacement setting of the granite sheets that constitute the Esperanca pluton in the Borborema Province (Northeastern Brazil). The sheets dip moderately to the SE along the contact zone between the Paleoproterozoic basement rocks and Early Neoproterozoic orthogneisses and metasediments. Granite fabrics were determined mainly using AMS in 136 sites distributed within the central and western part of the pluton. The sheets normally have susceptibility lower than 0.35 mSI but, locally, where a Ti-poor magnetite appears with titanite, the susceptibility increases up to 5 mSI. Comparison between the silicate fabric and AMS showed inconsistencies between the shape of mineral and magnetic ellipsoids despite of their orientations that fit fairly well to each other. AMS indicated the deformation was partitioned between the lower (tonalite, syenogranite) and upper (leucogranite and coarse porphyritic granite) sheets. In the lower sheets the curvilinear lineation trajectory is attributed to a dominant heterogeneous pure shear event that flattened laterally the still molten tonalite and syenogranite into the regional foliation. ne associated microstructures are typically magmatic. Zircon U/Pb data of the syenogranite yielded a crystallization age of 592 +/- 5 Ma. In the upper sheets the fabric recorded a component of simple shear deformation that displaced the coarse porphyritic granite and the top gneissic host rocks to the southwest. Microstructures are mostly of post-full crystallization type. T(DM) model ages and epsilon(Nd) (t = 0) values indicate that the magma contaminated by partial melting of the regional host rocks. Sheet propagation at the emplacement level would have exploited the contact zone between crustal blocks of different rheologies when the melt pressures would be able to tensionally fail the anisotropy of the host rocks. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On epidote fission track dating

The use of epidote in fission track dating was abandoned since the beginning of the 1980s due to difficulties like absence of a standard etching procedure, obtainment of different closure temperatures and the percentage of the datable samples. The results become much more reproducible when restricting fission track analysis to a peculiar kind of track. We are also studying confined track length, what makes possible to obtain information about fossil track annealing. Fission tracks in epidote were successfully etched with 48% HF at 35 degrees C for 12.5 min. Dating samples by the external detector method was not possible due to problems in measuring the efficiency factor held between the number of fossil fission tracks and tracks induced in mica. Dating a sample from Brejui, RN, Brazil with the population method gave a corrected age of 510 +/- 69Ma, in agreement with published U/Th-Pb ages. From the fact that the fossil track length histogram was bimodal, we were able to infer that this sample registered a thermal episode during its history.These preliminary results indicate that epidote deserves further studies to establish whether it can be employed as a thermochronological tool. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sm-Nd system in total rock open versus closed isotopic composition in zones of high deformation

High strain shear zones of Brasiliano age, developed in Paleoproterozoic basement gneiss of the Caicó region, Borborema Province, NE Brazil, were associated with medium- to low-grade metamorphism and deformational processes that transformed porphyritic augen gneiss into muscovite quartzite, modifying their original mineralogy and chemical properties. During the last hydrothermal event mobility of major, minor and trace elements was great, whereas the pattern of Rare Earth Elements was not changed. We carried out a Sm-Nd isotopic study in these rocks in order to understand the behavior of Nd isotopes during mylonite generation. TDM model ages at around 2.6 Ga and εNd (t) values for both protolith and transformed rock suggest that the Nd isotopic system remained closed, recording the original source rock signature, despite undergoing two superposed metamorphic events. These new Sm-Nd results provide important information on the geologic evolution of basement rocks in the central Rio Grande do Norte Terrane of the Borborema Province, NE Brazil.

Paleoambiente e proveniência da formação cabeças da bacia do Parnaíba: evidências da glaciação famenniana e implicações na potencialidade do reservatório

O histórico de prospecção de hidrocarbonetos da Bacia Paleozoica do Parnaíba, situada no norte-nordeste do Brasil, sempre foi considerado desfavorável quando comparado aos super-reservatórios estimados do Pré-Sal das bacias da Margem Atlântica e até mesmo interiores, como a Bacia do Solimões. No entanto, a descoberta de gás natural em depósitos da superseqüência mesodevoniana-eocarbonífera do Grupo Canindé, que incluem as formações Pimenteiras, Cabeças e Longá, impulsionou novas pesquisas no intuito de refinar a caracterização paleoambiental, paleogeográfica, bem como, entender o sistema petrolífero, os possíveis plays e a potencialidade do reservatório Cabeças. A avaliação faciológica e estratigráfica com ênfase no registro da tectônica glacial, em combinação com a geocronologia de zircão detrítico permitiu interpretar o paleoambiente e a proveniência do reservatório Cabeças. Seis associações de fácies agrupadas em sucessões aflorantes, com espessura máxima de até 60m registram a evolução de um sistema deltaico Devoniano influenciado por processos glaciais principalmente no topo da unidade. 1) frente deltaica distal, composta por argilito maciço, conglomerado maciço, arenito com acamamento maciço, laminação plana e estratificação cruzada sigmoidal 2) frente deltaica proximal, representada pelas fácies arenito maciço, arenito com laminação plana, arenito com estratificação cruzada sigmoidal e conglomerado maciço; 3) planície deltaica, representada pelas fácies argilito laminado, arenito maciço, arenito com estratificação cruzada acanalada e conglomerado maciço; 4) shoreface glacial, composta pelas fácies arenito com marcas onduladas e arenito com estratificação cruzada hummocky; 5) depósitos subglaciais, que englobam as fácies diamictito maciço, diamictito com pods de arenito e brecha intraformacional; e 6) frente deltaica de degelo, constituída pelas fácies arenito maciço, arenito deformado, arenito com laminação plana, arenito com laminação cruzada cavalgante e arenito com estratificação cruzada sigmoidal. Durante o Fammeniano (374-359 Ma) uma frente deltaica dominada por processos fluviais progradava para NW (borda leste) e para NE (borda oeste) sobre uma plataforma influenciada por ondas de tempestade (Formação Pimenteiras). Na borda leste da bacia, o padrão de paleocorrente e o espectro de idades U-Pb em zircão detrítico indicam que o delta Cabeças foi alimentado por áreas fonte situadas a sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba, provavelmente da Província Borborema. Grãos de zircão com idade mesoproterozóica (~ 1.039 – 1.009 Ma) e neoproterozóica (~ 654 Ma) são os mais populosos ao contrário dos grãos com idade arqueana (~ 2.508 – 2.678 Ma) e paleoproterozóica (~ 2.054 – 1.992 Ma). O grão de zircão concordante mais novo forneceu idade ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U de 501,20 ± 6,35 Ma (95% concordante) indicando idades de áreas-fonte cambrianas. As principais fontes de sedimentos do delta Cabeças na borda leste são produto de rochas do Domínio Zona Transversal e de plútons Brasilianos encontrados no embasamento a sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba, com pequena contribuição de sedimentos oriundos de rochas do Domínio Ceará Central e da porção ocidental do Domínio Rio Grande do Norte. No Famenniano, a movimentação do supercontinente Gondwana para o polo sul culminou na implantação de condições glaciais concomitantemente com o rebaixamento do nível do mar e exposição da região costeira. O avanço das geleiras sobre o embasamento e depósitos deltaicos gerou erosão, deposição de diamictons com clastos exóticos e facetados, além de estruturas glaciotectônicas tais como plano de descolamento, foliação, boudins, dobras, duplex, falhas e fraturas que refletem um cisalhamento tangencial em regime rúptil-dúctil. O substrato apresentava-se inconsolidado e saturados em água com temperatura levemente abaixo do ponto de fusão do gelo (permafrost quente). Corpos podiformes de arenito imersos em corpos lenticulares de diamicton foram formados pela ruptura de camadas pelo cisalhamento subglacial. Lentes de conglomerados esporádicas (dump structures) nos depósitos de shoreface sugere queda de detritos ligados a icebergs em fases de recuo da geleira. A elevação da temperatura no final do Famenniano reflete a rotação destral do Gondwana e migração do polo sul da porção ocidental da América do Sul e para o oeste da África. Esta nova configuração paleogeográfica posicionou a Bacia do Parnaíba em regiões subtropicais iniciando o recuo de geleiras e a influência do rebound isostático. O alívio de pressão é indicado pela geração de sills e diques clásticos, estruturas ball-and-pillow, rompimento de camadas e brechas. Falhas de cavalgamento associadas à diamictitos com foliação na borda oeste da bacia sugerem que as geleiras migravam para NNE. O contínuo aumento do nível do mar relativo propiciou a instalação de sedimentação deltaica durante o degelo e posteriormente a implantação de uma plataforma transgressiva (Formação Longá). Diamictitos interdigitados com depósitos de frente deltaica na porção superior da Formação Cabeças correspondem a intervalos com baixo volume de poros e podem representar trapas estratigráficas secundárias no reservatório. As anisotropias primárias subglaciais do topo da sucessão Cabeças, em ambas as bordas da Bacia do Parnaíba, estende a influência glacial e abre uma nova perspectiva sobre a potencialidade efetiva do reservatório Cabeças do sistema petrolífero Mesodevoniano-Eocarbonífero da referida bacia.

Evolução da tectônica rúptil no nordeste do Brasil baseada na termocronologia por traço de fissão em apatita

Results of apatite fission tracks from twelve samples collected across a Borborema Province transect, northeastern Brazil, revealed two major paleothermal events: a cooling event occurred between Albian and late Cenomanian (110 - 80 Ma) and a second cooling event starting on early Paleocene (66 Ma). Given the wide expression of the studied area (sampling trend along four brazilian states) a correlation between the distribution of fission track data and the current geological / geomorphological scenario was made possible, considering the area’s tectono - stratigraphic past and its thermochronologic evolution until now. The fact that the employed thermochronologic tool relates to a relatively shallow geothermometer, substancially information for understanding the behavior of basement brittle tectonic was achieved. These data were used to analyze faults origin and reactivation, associated with sedimentary basins evolution in the context of South America - Africa continental breakup.

Sismicidade e esforços tectônicos na zona sísmica Acaraú, Nordeste do Brasil

Inside the Borborema Province the Northwestern Ceará (NC) is one of the most seismic active regions. There are reports of an earthquake occurred in 1810 in the Granja town. On January, 2008 the seismic activity in NC has increased and it was deployed a seismographic network with 11 digital stations. In 2009, another earthquake sequence began and it was deployed another seismographic network in the Santana do Acaraú town with 6 stations. This thesis presents the results obtained by analyzing the data recorded in these two networks. The epicentral areas are located near the northeastern part of the Transbrasiliano Lineament, a shear zone with NE-SW-trending that cuts the study area. The hypocenters are located between 1km and 8km. The strike-slip focal mechanisms were found, which is predominant in the Borborema Province. An integration of seismological, geological and geophysical data was performed and it show that the seismogenic faults found are oriented in the same direction to the local brittle structures observed in field and magnetic lineaments. The SHmax (maximum compressional stress) direction in NC was estimated using an inversion of seven focal mechanisms. The horizontal maximum compression stress (σ1 = 300°) with orientation NW-SE and extension (σ3 = 210°) with NE-SW and σ2 vertical. These results are consistent with results of previous studies. The seismic activity recorded in NC is not related to a possible reactivation of the Transbrasiliano Lineament, by now.

Análise estratigráfica de subsuperfície do Devoniano Inferior da Bacia do Rio do Peixe, Nordeste do Brasil

Subsurface stratigraphic analysis of Devonian strata from the Rio do Peixe Basin, newly recognized by palynological studies, has resulted in the identification of two new lithostratigraphic units assembled in the Santa Helena Group. The Pilões Formation, the lower unit, is composed mainly of dark mudstones and medium-tovery fine-grained sandstones, with minor conglomerates and breccias. The Triunfo Formation, the upper unit, comprises whitish grey, kaolinitic, coarse-grained to conglomeratic, cross stratified sandstones and conglomerates, with interbedded mudstones and fine-grained sandstones. These units were characterized using cores, sidewall and cuttings samples, conventional logs and image log, from three wells drilled by PETROBRAS, and 3D seismic data. The Pilões Formation is interpreted as prodeltaic facies, with lesser associated subaqueous talus, debrite and sandy turbidite lobe facies, distal part of fandelta and braided fluviodeltaic facies of Triunfo Formation. The Santa Helena Group corresponds to the Lower Devonian tectono-sequence deposited in a NW-SE-trending graben during a transgressiveregressive cycle. With 343 meters of thickness (isochore) in well 1-PIL-1-PB (Pilões 1), this sequence has a non-conformity at the lower boundary and its upper boundary is an unconformity with the Lower Cretaceous tectono-sequence (Rio do Peixe Group), that represents a hiatus of about 265 million years. Ignimbrites and coignimbrite breccias (Poço da Jurema volcanic breccia), related to an unknown pyroclastic volcanic event, were recognized at the northern margin of the Sousa halfgraben. Evidence from well data suggests that this event is coeval with the Devonian graben filling. The present study indicates a polyhistorical tectono-volcanosedimentary evolution of the basin. This lithostratigraphic update brings new perspectives for geological research in the Rio do Peixe Basin, as well as in other inland basins of the Northeastern of Brazil. The results of the research also contribute to the kwnoledge of the Borborema Province and western Gondwana paleogeography during the Early Devonian.

Assinatura estrutural e geofísica da porção norte (fronteira Ceará-Piauí) no lineamento transbrasiliano: reativação na bacia do Parnaíba

The Transbrasiliano Lineament is a major shear zone trending NE-SW, related to the Brasiliano orogeny and evolved through high to low temperature stages. In this study, the structural and geophysical signature of the northern segment of Transbrasiliano Lineament was studied in its northern border, between Ceará and Piauí states, involving the Brasiliano mylonite zone, the Jaibaras Graben and reactivations affecting the sedimentary sequences post-ordovician of Parnaíba Basin. In the literature, is commonly the phanerozoic reactivation of this structure referred, generating several late Brasiliano grabens predating the paleozoic Parnaíba syneclises, like the Jaibaras Graben. Faults that cut the stratigraphic units of the Parnaíba Basin along the entire length of the Transbrasiliano Lineament express its reactivation during younger events. The magnetic anomaly field reduced to the pole map exhibit anomalies NE-trending, interpreted as the signature of the Transbrasiliano Lineament (and Brasiliano structures of the Borborema Province) in its high-temperature expression. The Jaibaras Graben is marked by a straight anomalous track with high magnetic susceptibility (interpreted as a prevalence of ferromagnesian rocks, probably volcanic), apparently without significant continuity in the substrate of Parnaíba Basin. The geometric and kinematic analysis of the structures in the study area, using remote sensing and field data, led to the characterization of four deformation phases brittle the ductilebrittle Dn, D1, D2 and D3. The Dn deformation phase of ediacaran-cambrian age, occurs exclusively in the Jaibaras Graben, with the development of comparatively higher temperature (as regards to younger events) ductile-brittle structures. D1, D2 and D3 deformation phases affect both the Jaibaras Graben as well as the paleozoic sequences of the northeastern edge of Parnaíba Basin, generating structures developed at lower temperatures, basically brittle/cataclastic. The SRTM image analysis allowed mapping different NE, NW and E-W trending lineaments in Parnaíba Basin, whose correlation with mesoscopic structures is discussed in terms of the reactivation of Transbrasiliano Lineament in association with the stages of general Atlantic opening and separation between South America and Africa, or even the distal orogenic events in Paleozoic.

Petrologia e geoquímica do magmatismo ediacarano Serra do Caramuru, Rio Grande do Norte, NE do Brasil

The Serra do Caramuru and Tapuio stocks, located in the extreme NE of Rio Piranhas-Seridó Domain (RN), are representative of the Ediacaran-Cambrian magmatism, an important magmatic feature of the Brasilian / Panafrican orogeny of the Borborema Province. These bodies are lithologically similar, intrusive in paleoproterozoic gneiss embasement, being separated by a thin belt of mylonitic orthogneiss. The field relations show a magmatic stratigraphy initiated by dioritic facies that coexists with the porphyritic granitic and equigranular granitic I facies, and less frequently with equigranular granitic II facies. These rocks are crosscut by late granitic dykes and sheets with NE-SW / NNE-SSW orientation. The dioritic facies (diorite, quartz diorite, quartz monzodiorites, tonalite and granodiorite) is leucocratic to melanocratic, rich in biotite and hornblende. The granitic facies are hololeucocratic to leucocratic, and have biotite ± hornblende. Petrographic and geochemical (whole rock) data, especially from Serra do Caramuru pluton, suggest fractionation of zircon, apatite, clinopyroxene (in diorites), opaque minerals, titanite, biotite, hornblende, allanite, plagioclase, microcline and garnet (in dykes). The behavior of trace elements such as Zr, La and Yb indicates that the dioritic magma does not constitute the parental magma for the granitic facies. On the other hand, the granitic facies seems to be cogenetic to each other, displaying differentiation trends and very similar rare earth elements (REE) spectra [12.3≤(La/Yb)N≤190.8; Eu/Eu*=0.30-0.68]. Field relationships and REE patterns [6.96≤(La/Yb)N≤277.8; Eu/Eu*=0.18-0.58] demonstrate that the granitic dykes and sheets are not cogenetically related to the Serra do Caramuru magmatism. The dioritic facies is metaluminous (A/CNK = 0.88-0.74) and shoshonitic, whereas the granitic ones are metaluminous to peraluminous (A/CNK = 1.08-0.93) and high potassium calc-alkaline. Dykes and sheets are strictly peraluminous (A/CNK = 1.01-1.04). Binary diagrams relating compatible and incompatible trace elements and microtextures indicate the fractional crystallization as the dominant mechanism of magmatic evolution of the various facies. The Serra do Caramuru and Tapuio stocks have well preserved magmatic fabric, do not show metamorphic minerals and are structurally isotropic, showing crosscutting contact with the ductile fabric of the basement. These observations lead to interpretate a stage of relative tectonic stability, consistent with the orogenic relaxation period of the Brasiliano / Pan-African orogeny. Chemical plots involving oxides and trace elements indicate late to post-collisional emplacement. In this context, the assumed better mechanism to describe the stocks emplacement within an extensional T Riedel joint, with ENE-WSW extensional vector. The U-Pb zircon age of 553 ± 10 Ma allows correlating the Serra do Caramuru magmatism to the group of post-collisional bodies, equigranular high potassium calc-alkaline granites of the NE of Rio Piranhas-Seridó Domain.

Petrologia e geoquímica do magmatismo ediacarano Serra do Caramuru, Rio Grande do Norte, NE do Brasil

The Serra do Caramuru and Tapuio stocks, located in the extreme NE of Rio Piranhas-Seridó Domain (RN), are representative of the Ediacaran-Cambrian magmatism, an important magmatic feature of the Brasilian / Panafrican orogeny of the Borborema Province. These bodies are lithologically similar, intrusive in paleoproterozoic gneiss embasement, being separated by a thin belt of mylonitic orthogneiss. The field relations show a magmatic stratigraphy initiated by dioritic facies that coexists with the porphyritic granitic and equigranular granitic I facies, and less frequently with equigranular granitic II facies. These rocks are crosscut by late granitic dykes and sheets with NE-SW / NNE-SSW orientation. The dioritic facies (diorite, quartz diorite, quartz monzodiorites, tonalite and granodiorite) is leucocratic to melanocratic, rich in biotite and hornblende. The granitic facies are hololeucocratic to leucocratic, and have biotite ± hornblende. Petrographic and geochemical (whole rock) data, especially from Serra do Caramuru pluton, suggest fractionation of zircon, apatite, clinopyroxene (in diorites), opaque minerals, titanite, biotite, hornblende, allanite, plagioclase, microcline and garnet (in dykes). The behavior of trace elements such as Zr, La and Yb indicates that the dioritic magma does not constitute the parental magma for the granitic facies. On the other hand, the granitic facies seems to be cogenetic to each other, displaying differentiation trends and very similar rare earth elements (REE) spectra [12.3≤(La/Yb)N≤190.8; Eu/Eu*=0.30-0.68]. Field relationships and REE patterns [6.96≤(La/Yb)N≤277.8; Eu/Eu*=0.18-0.58] demonstrate that the granitic dykes and sheets are not cogenetically related to the Serra do Caramuru magmatism. The dioritic facies is metaluminous (A/CNK = 0.88-0.74) and shoshonitic, whereas the granitic ones are metaluminous to peraluminous (A/CNK = 1.08-0.93) and high potassium calc-alkaline. Dykes and sheets are strictly peraluminous (A/CNK = 1.01-1.04). Binary diagrams relating compatible and incompatible trace elements and microtextures indicate the fractional crystallization as the dominant mechanism of magmatic evolution of the various facies. The Serra do Caramuru and Tapuio stocks have well preserved magmatic fabric, do not show metamorphic minerals and are structurally isotropic, showing crosscutting contact with the ductile fabric of the basement. These observations lead to interpretate a stage of relative tectonic stability, consistent with the orogenic relaxation period of the Brasiliano / Pan-African orogeny. Chemical plots involving oxides and trace elements indicate late to post-collisional emplacement. In this context, the assumed better mechanism to describe the stocks emplacement within an extensional T Riedel joint, with ENE-WSW extensional vector. The U-Pb zircon age of 553 ± 10 Ma allows correlating the Serra do Caramuru magmatism to the group of post-collisional bodies, equigranular high potassium calc-alkaline granites of the NE of Rio Piranhas-Seridó Domain.

Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.