Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.

The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 4.0 and JULES global land 4.0 configurations

We describe Global Atmosphere 4.0 (GA4.0) and Global Land 4.0 (GL4.0): configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) community land surface model developed for use in global and regional climate research and weather prediction activities. GA4.0 and GL4.0 are based on the previous GA3.0 and GL3.0 configurations, with the inclusion of developments made by the Met Office and its collaborators during its annual development cycle. This paper provides a comprehensive technical and scientific description of GA4.0 and GL4.0 as well as details of how these differ from their predecessors. We also present the results of some initial evaluations of their performance. Overall, performance is comparable with that of GA3.0/GL3.0; the updated configurations include improvements to the science of several parametrisation schemes, however, and will form a baseline for further ongoing development.

The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration

The latest coupled configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (Global Coupled configuration 2, GC2) is presented. This paper documents the model components which make up the configuration (although the scientific description of these components is detailed elsewhere) and provides a description of the coupling between the components. The performance of GC2 in terms of its systematic errors is assessed using a variety of diagnostic techniques. The configuration is intended to be used by the Met Office and collaborating institutes across a range of timescales, with the seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) and climate projection system (HadGEM) being the initial users. In this paper GC2 is compared against the model currently used operationally in those two systems. Overall GC2 is shown to be an improvement on the configurations used currently, particularly in terms of modes of variability (e.g. mid-latitude and tropical cyclone intensities, the Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation). A number of outstanding errors are identified with the most significant being a considerable warm bias over the Southern Ocean and a dry precipitation bias in the Indian and West African summer monsoons. Research to address these is ongoing.

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

Ausencia, prohibición y carencia : Estudio de los personajes y el deseo frustrado en tres obras de García Lorca

In this thesis, the main male characters in three of the plays written by Federico García Lorca are analysed with the aim of seeingthe role they play in the frustration of desire. After two chapters dedicated to a review of published critical studies on Lorca and tocertain theoretical considerations, Chapter Three examines desire drawing on Ubersfeld's actancial model and observes that thesemale characters can be divided into two groups: those who are desired and those who are undesired.In Chapter Four this classification is linked to an analysis of absence, prohibition and lack. Absence is here defined not asrelated to their non-appearance on stage but rather to their non-presence in the lives of the desiring female protagonists. It isobserved that a number of male characters are absent in the plays mainly due to death or a journey. As far as prohibition isconcerned, in two of the works, there is a moral code associated with concepts such as "honour" and "decency", which blocks thefemale characters' access to the males they desire. Chapter Four also shows how several characters can be considered as lacking inthe sense that they do not possess the ideal male qualities contained in the plays. This chapter reaches the conclusion that desiredmale characters are either absent or forbidden in the world of the desiring female, whereas undesired male characters are lacking inthe sense that they fail to live up to the ideal highlighted in the plays.Chapter Five analyses the female characters' perception of the male figures, making use of René Girard's notion of"transfiguration", which alludes to a process of idealisation of the object of desire. Our analysis reveals a connection betweendesire, denied access to the object of desire and transfiguration in the main subjects of desire. The phenomenon of "transfiguration"has several functions in the play: firstly, the creation of hyperbolical male characters; secondly, that of transmitting the intensity ofthe desire experienced and, finally, the highlighting of the lack of certain qualities in several male characters.We thus observe that, in these three plays written by García Lorca, Girard's pessimistic view of desire is confirmed, since desireneeds a series of obstacles, such as absence or prohibition, to survive. However, this is not the only explanation for the frustrationof desire: other factors, like the actions of certain male characters or destiny, also play a decisive role.

Traços decadentistas na poesia de Camilo Pessanha e Al Berto

This monograph aims contribute to point out the presence of technical procedures, formal and thematic elements, typical of the Symbolist/Decadentism aesthetic in lyric poetry of Al Berto (1948-1997), using the Camilo Pessanha’s (1867-1926) work as tool to comparison. To achieve this goal, we analyze the corpus selected for research, consisting of three Pessanha’s poems taken from the book that brings together his work, Clepsidra, “Caminho I”, “Caminho II” e “[Depois das bodas de oiro]”, and three poems of Al Berto, taken from the book O Medo, which is the combination of his work too: “Os dias sem ninguém - 4”, “Doze moradas de silêncio – I” and “[no exíguo espaço do corpo ou da casa]”. Through the comparison between the analysis of the poems from Al Berto and Camilo Pessanha it was found resemblances, in fact, - and obviously some differences - between both. Furthermore, it was verified that Al Berto, a contemporary poet, rescues numerous traits of the decadent aesthetic, whose Camilo Pessanha is one of the greatest representatives

Estudo de parâmetros climáticos como subsídio à gestão ambiental da vertente paranaense da bacia hidrográfica do rio Itararé

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

An optimization method for conceptual design in engineering systems based on high order singular value decomposition

Se presenta un nuevo método de diseño conceptual en Ingeniería Aeronáutica basado el uso de modelos reducidos, también llamados modelos sustitutos (‘surrogates’). Los ingredientes de la función objetivo se calculan para cada indiviudo mediante la utilización de modelos sustitutos asociados a las distintas disciplinas técnicas que se construyen mediante definiciones de descomposición en valores singulares de alto orden (HOSVD) e interpolaciones unidimensionales. Estos modelos sustitutos se obtienen a partir de un número limitado de cálculos CFD. Los modelos sustitutos pueden combinarse, bien con un método de optimización global de tipo algoritmo genético, o con un método local de tipo gradiente. El método resultate es flexible a la par que mucho más eficiente, computacionalmente hablando, que los modelos convencionales basados en el cálculo directo de la función objetivo, especialmente si aparecen un gran número de parámetros de diseño y/o de modelado. El método se ilustra considerando una versión simplificada del diseño conceptual de un avión. Abstract An optimization method for conceptual design in Aeronautics is presented that is based on the use of surrogate models. The various ingredients in the target function are calculated for each individual using surrogates of the associated technical disciplines that are constructed via high order singular value decomposition and one dimensional interpolation. These surrogates result from a limited number of CFD calculated snapshots. The surrogates are combined with an optimization method, which can be either a global optimization method such as a genetic algorithm or a local optimization method, such as a gradient-like method. The resulting method is both flexible and much more computationally efficient than the conventional method based on direct calculation of the target function, especially if a large number of free design parameters and/or tunablemodeling parameters are present. The method is illustrated considering a simplified version of the conceptual design of an aircraft empennage.

De su alma y de su pluma : (colección de pensamientos, seleccionados en los escritos del nacionalismo vasco) / Arana-Goiri'tar Sabin.

Publicado con motivo de la celebración de las "Bodas de oro" del Nacionalismo Vasco, 1882-1932

Breve noticia de las festivas demonstraciones con que la ... ciudad de Valencia celebrò la feliz noticia del ... casamiento del ... Principe de las Asturias con la ... Princesa de Orleans

Tít. tomado de principio de texto

De part de la Sacra Catholica y Real Magestat del Rey ... Carlos Segon ... ... de Orleans ...

Impreso con huecos para rellenar a mano, vacios

Plan de negocio Miraparty

En el siguiente trabajo se documentará un plan de negocio para Miraparty. Miraparty es una empresa que ofrece un servicio de photocall innovador en tres diferentes ámbitos de negocio: Bodas, celebración de todo tipo de eventos socio-culturales (fiestas, eventos deportivos, musicales, gastronómicos,...), y en el ámbito empresarial para eventos promocionales. Se realizará primero una presentación de la compañía describiendo sus servicios y su organización. Posteriormente se describirá tanto las características técnicas de toda la tecnología empleada, así como una descripción detallada del proceso y modelo de operaciones de Miraparty. A continuación se ha realizado un estudio de mercado analizando los competidores dentro del mismo sector, cuyas conclusiones se muestran en una tabla resumen, y termina con una matriz DAFO que ayuda a ver y comprender la situación actual de Miraparty. Dentro de la sección específica de marketing, se ha descrito primero el posicionamiento de la empresa para, posteriormente, desarrollar las capacidades de Go-to-market dentro de los distintos canales comerciales que Miraparty debe emplear. Además de ello, se ha diseñado una encuesta de satisfacción al cliente para su uso posterior. Por último, se ha desarrollado un caso de negocio en el que se estudia con éxito la viabilidad de la apertura de una franquicia de Miraparty en la ciudad de Madrid. Se ha optado por realizar un estudio con un horizonte de tres años. ---ABSTRACT---In following document a business plan for Miraparty will be developed. Miraparty is a company that offers a brand new photocall service in three different business areas: Weddings, every kind of social and cultural events (parties, sport events, musical events,...) and for promotional events for other companies. First of all, Miraparty will be described as well as its offered services and its organization. Afterwards, used technology and technical equipment will be described along with a detailed description of its core process and Miraparty's operational model. Secondly, it is presented a market analysis with a thorough analysis of Miraparty's direct competitors. Conclusions are summarized in a comparison table, and this part finishes with a DAFO matrix that helps understanding Miraparty's current situation. Next, in marketing related section, firstly, company's services positioning has been described using BCG matrix to, secondly, develop Go-to-Market capabilities for every market channel Miraparty should use. Besides that, a customer satisfaction survey form has been designed for its further use. Finally, a business case has been developed to study v Madrid. In this study it has been decided to state a three year time limit.

Arenga pera tirar desde el carro, que fa Sento el Novelero, de la Chunta que tingueren el Rat-Penat, el Pardal del Rellonche de Sen Chuan, el Dragó del Colechi ... : ahon éste feu descripció de la Danza, y Carro Triunfant que en obsequi de SS. MM. y AA. fan els empleats de Pes Real, del Oli, Arros ...

Autor tomado del final del texto

Romance espiritual, en que se declara el misterio de los desposorios del señor san Joseph, y Maria Santissima ; la Encarnación del Divino Verbo, y los zelos del señor san Joseph : del desposorio de san Joseph

Subtit. va detras de mencion de resp

De las escuelas rurales: el ejemplo de la Escuela de Barxell "Santa Rosa de Lima", Alcoy

El presente texto se ha elaborado pensando en objetivos aparentemente diferentes, pero en conjunto interrelacionados: El primer objetivo era reconstruir la historia de una escuela rural, como otras muchas, unitaria y mixta. Estas escuelas rurales no han atraido la atención de la sociedad contemporánea, de sus investigadores y sus medios de comunicación, y difícilmente realizaran un homenaje sobre sus bodas de plata, oro, etc., como ocurre en muchas de las escuelas urbanas. Y no podrán hacerlo porque la sociedad en la que se crearon, desarrollaron y finalmente desaparecieron, igualmente, se ha extinguido. No se trata, como es normal, de una desaparición relacionada sólo con el paso del tiempo, tempus fugit. Es obvio que el paso del tiempo ha influido, pero también ha sido decisiva la transformación de una sociedad rural en otra urbana. Esta transición cronológicamente se sitúa en la provincia de Alicante entre 1960 y 1970, con el “take off” o despegue industrial, y en otros casos con el desarrollo turístico. Fue especialmente en la década de los setenta, coincidiendo con la crisis económica y política cuando se cerraron muchas escuelas rurales. Como elemento decisivo influyó un criterio económico y no educativo o social. La concentración de los niños de población rural en un centro urbano era más barato, incluso si se tenía que pagar los gastos de transporte y comedor escolar. Con el tiempo, este criterio económico que podemos calificar de fordista, se ha manifestado como problemático e inadecuado en diferentes actividades, sin que su cuestionamiento en el mundo de la educación se haya generalizado. Es cierto, que en la educación es esencial la socialización del niño y el que exista un cierto número de niños en la escuela, pero esta razón, o no ha estado presente, o no se ha explicitado lo suficiente. El segundo objetivo era reconstruir la historia de una escuela rural, a partir de fuentes documentales, preferentemente no conservadas en archivos oficiales, sino a partir de la experiencia de sus protagonistas, alumnos, maestros, padres, mediante documentos conservados en sus casas como notas, cuadernos, libros de texto, fotografías, etc. Es decir, mediante los nuevos métodos de investigación que se potenciaron a partir de la renovación que supuso la Escuela de los Annales. Esta historia no es la historia “oficial” de grandes personajes, ilustres pedagogos, reconocidos docentes o avanzados investigadores. Esta historia narra un determinado aspecto de la vida cotidiana de muchas personas que hacen historia, pero de la que los investigadores, en muchas ocasiones, hacen caso omiso. El tercer objetivo era el de contribuir a la reconstrucción de la historia de la escuela rural. El alcance de este objetivo no se limita al “caso” de la escuela, sino que pretende servir de modelo y estímulo para que muchos docentes jubilados, familiares, estudiantes, vean este trabajo como ejemplo para recuperar la historia de sus escuelas y con ellas la de una sociedad cuyo modelo ha sido hasta fechas recientes el más extenso. El investigador que decida seguir esta senda encontrará un amplio apoyo social. Es grande la predisposición de los implicados en colaborar en la recuperación de la memoria colectiva. La inicial dificultad de carecer del clásico archivo público no suele ser un obstáculo. La investigación se desarrolla a través de un circuito en el que establecido el primer contacto, éste te facilita otro y al final se dispone de una estructura piramidal de contactos, que permiten obtener una información diversa y compleja. La amplitud de la documentación facilitada puede generar el problema de cómo tener que elegir para evitar la divagación. En la investigación afloran cuestiones etnográficas, sociales y culturales, que aunque interesantes y que permiten conocer mejor la sociedad en la que se asienta la escuela, en ocasiones llegan a obstruir el cumplimiento de nuestro propósito. Por esta razón conviene tener en todo momento clara la intención que se persigue y seleccionar aquello que se considere más directamente relacionado con el tema.