PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Mother's attachment representations of their premature infant at 6 and 18 months after birth.

The effects of premature birth on attachment have generally been examined from the infant's perspective. There is a lack of data concerning parental attachment representations toward a premature child. Because of the psychological stress engendered in parents confronted with a premature birth, we hypothesized that their attachment representations would be altered during the first months after the hospital discharge. Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 30 families with a full-term infant participated to the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during hospitalization. To assess mothers' representations of their infant, the Working Model of the Child Interview (WMCI, Zeanah & Benoit, 1995 & Benoit, Zeanah, Parker, Nicholson, & Coolbear, 1997) were administered when their children were 6 and 18 months old. The severity of the perinatal risks was found to have an impact on the mothers' attachment representations. At six months, only 20% of the mothers of a prematurely born infant (30% at 18 months) had secure attachment representations, vs. 53% for the control group (57% at 18 months). Furthermore, mothers of low-risk premature infants more often had disengaged representations, whereas distorted representations were more frequent in the high-risk group of premature children. These findings suggest that the parental response to a premature birth is linked to the severity of postnatal risks. The fact that secure attachment representations are affected in mothers of low-risk infants just as much as they are in mothers of high-risk infants points to the need to conduct further studies aimed at evaluating whether preventive intervention for both low-risk and high-risk premature will be helpful.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Birth and rapid subcellular adaptation of a hominoid-specific CDC14 protein

Gene duplication was prevalent during hominoid evolution, yet little is known about the functional fate of new ape gene copies. We characterized the CDC14B cell cycle gene and the functional evolution of its hominoid-specific daughter gene, CDC14Bretro. We found that CDC14B encodes four different splice isoforms that show different subcellular localizations (nucleus or microtubule-associated) and functional properties. A microtubular CDC14B variant spawned CDC14Bretro through retroposition in the hominoid ancestor 18-25 million years ago (Mya). CDC14Bretro evolved brain-/testis-specific expression after the duplication event and experienced a short period of intense positive selection in the African ape ancestor 7-12 Mya. Using resurrected ancestral protein variants, we demonstrate that by virtue of amino acid substitutions in distinct protein regions during this time, the subcellular localization of CDC14Bretro progressively shifted from the association with microtubules (stabilizing them) to an association with the endoplasmic reticulum. CDC14Bretro evolution represents a paradigm example of rapid, selectively driven subcellular relocalization, thus revealing a novel mode for the emergence of new gene function

Circadian and circaseptan patterns of natality and perinatal mortality of infants with different birth weights

OBJECTIVE. Data on human natality, stillbirth and perinatal mortality from Switzerland (1979-1987), available in four birthweight categories, are reexamined to assess any about-weekly (circaseptan) and changes in about-daily (circadian) patterns in central Europe over a century and a halfDESIGN. Retrospective analyses on archived data.SETTING. Federal Office of Statistics for Switzerland.RESULTS. In addition to prominent circadians, weekly patterns are also documented.CONCLUSION. Exogenous variations, prominent in early extrauterine life, such as changes of scheduling in obstetrics, may contribute to circadian and cireaseptan natality patterns. Information on these patterns serves in the optimization of neonatal care. Partly endogenous, partly physical environmental aspects, at least of about-weekly patterns, remain to be elucidated in series consisting exclusively of spontaneous parturitions.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Spontaneous Atopic Dermatitis-Like Symptoms in a/a ma ft/ma ft/J Flaky Tail Mice Appear Early after Birth.

Loss-of-function mutations in human profilaggrin gene have been identified as the cause of ichthyosis vulgaris (IV), and as a major predisposition factor for atopic dermatitis (AD). Similarly, flaky tail (a/a ma ft/ma ft/J) mice were described as a model for IV, and shown to be predisposed to eczema. The aim of this study was to correlate the flaky tail mouse phenotype with human IV and AD, in order to dissect early molecular events leading to atopic dermatitis in mice and men, suffering from filaggrin deficiency. Thus, 5-days old flaky tail pups were analyzed histologically, expression of cytokines was measured in skin and signaling pathways were investigated by protein analysis. Human biopsies of IV and AD patients were analyzed histologically and by real time PCR assays. Our data show acanthosis and hyperproliferation in flaky tail epidermis, associated with increased IL1β and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) expression, and Th2-polarization. Consequently, NFκB and Stat pathways were activated, and IL6 mRNA levels were increased. Further, quantitative analysis of late epidermal differentiation markers revealed increased Small proline-rich protein 2A (Sprr2a) synthesis. Th2-polarization and Sprr2a increase may result from high TSLP expression, as shown after analysis of 5-days old K14-TSLP tg mouse skin biopsies. Our findings in the flaky tail mouse correlate with data obtained from patient biopsies of AD, but not IV. We propose that proinflammatory cytokines are responsible for acanthosis in flaky tail epidermis, and together with the Th2-derived cytokines lead to morphological changes. Accordingly, the a/a ma ft/ma ft/J mouse model can be used as an appropriate model to study early AD onset associated with profilaggrin deficiency.

Risk of a Down syndrome live birth in women 45 years of age and older.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the risk of a Down syndrome (DS) live birth for women 45 years of age and over. METHODS: A meta-analysis of data from five published articles, 13 EUROCAT congenital anomaly population registers and two unpublished sources. RESULTS: Information was available on the number of DS live births occurring amongst 13,745 live births to women 45 years of age and over. Information was also available on DS pregnancies diagnosed prenatally that were subsequently terminated. These pregnancies were adjusted for expected fetal loss to estimate the number of live births that would have occurred in the absence of prenatal diagnoses, when a total of 471 DS live births were estimated to have occurred. The risk of a DS birth did not increase for women 45 years of age and over. The average risk was 34 per 1000 births (95% CI: 31-37). CONCLUSION: The risk of a DS live birth for women 45 years of age and over is considerably lower than has often been previously assumed. The most likely explanation is that women of this age are more likely to miscarry DS pregnancies than younger mothers.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Direct Effect of Birth Weight on Childhood Blood Pressure: a Causal Mediation Analysis

Background: Numerous studies have shown a negative association between birth weight (BW) and blood pressure (BP) later in life. To estimate the direct effect of BW on BP, it is conventional to condition on current weight (CW). However, such conditioning can induce collider stratification bias in the estimate of the direct effect. Objective: To bound the potential bias due to U, an unmeasured common cause of CW and BP, on the estimate of the (controlled) direct effect of BW on BP. Methods: Data from a school based study in Switzerland were used (N = 4,005; 2,010 B/1,995 G; mean age: 12.3 yr [range: 10.1-14.9]). Measured common causes of BW-BP (SES, smoking, body weight, and hypertension status of the mother) and CW-BP (breastfeeding and child's physical activity and diet) were identified with DAGs. Linear regression models were fitted to estimate the association between BW and BP. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the potential effect of U on the association between BW and BP. U was assumed 1) to be a binary variable that affected BP by the same magnitude in low BWand in normal BW children and 2) to have a different prevalence in low BW children and in normal BW children for a given CW. Results: A small negative association was observed between BW and BP [beta: -0.3 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -0.9 to 0.3)]. The association was strengthened upon conditioning for CW [beta: -1.5 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -2.1 to -0.9)]. Upon further conditioning on common causes of BW-BP and CW-BP, the association did not change substantially [beta: -1.4 mmHg/kg (95% CI: -2.0 to -0.8)]. The negative association could be explained by U only if U was strongly associated with BP and if there was a large difference in the prevalence of U between low BWand normal BW children. Conclusion: The observed negative association between BW and BP upon adjustment for CW was not easily explained by an unmeasured common cause of CWand BP.

Assessing the possible direct effect of birth weight on childhood blood pressure : a sensitivity analysis.

To estimate the possible direct effect of birth weight on blood pressure, it is conventional to condition on the mediator, current weight. Such conditioning can induce bias. Our aim was to assess the potential biasing effect of U, an unmeasured common cause of current weight and blood pressure, on the estimate of the controlled direct effect of birth weight on blood pressure, with the help of sensitivity analyses. We used data from a school-based study conducted in Switzerland in 2005-2006 (n = 3,762; mean age = 12.3 years). A small negative association was observed between birth weight and systolic blood pressure (linear regression coefficient βbw = -0.3 mmHg/kg, 95% confidence interval: -0.9, 0.3). The association was strengthened upon adjustment for current weight (βbw|C = -1.5 mmHg/kg, 95% confidence interval: -2.1, -0.9). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the negative conditional association was explained by U only if U was relatively strongly associated with blood pressure and if there was a large difference in the prevalence of U between low-birth weight and normal-birth weight children. This weakens the hypothesis that the negative relationship between birth weight and blood pressure arises only from collider-stratification bias induced by conditioning on current weight.

The birth of the Rheic Ocean - Early Palaeozoic subsidence patterns and subsequent tectonic plate scenarios

New plate-tectonic reconstructions of the Gondwana margin suggest that the location of Gondwana-derived terranes should not only be guided by the models, but should also consider the possible detrital input from some Asian blocks (Hunia), supposed to have been located along the Cambrian Gondwana margin, and accreted in the Silurian to the North-Chinese block. Consequently, the Gondwana margin has to be subdivided into a more western domain, where the future Avalonian blocks will be separated from Gondwana by the opening Rheic Ocean, whereas in its eastern continuation, hosting the future basement areas of Central Europe, different periods of crustal extension should be distinguished. Instead of applying a rather cylindrical model, it is supposed that crustal extension follows a much more complex pattern, where local back-arcs or intra-continental rifts are involved. Guided by the age data of magmatic rocks and the pattern of subsidence curves, the following extensional events can be distinguished: During the early to middle Cambrian, a back-arc setting guided the evolution at the Gondwana margin. Contemporaneous intra-continental rift basins developed at other places related to a general post-PanAfrican extensional phase affecting Africa Upper Cambrian formation of oceanic crust is manifested in the Chamrousse area, and may have lateral cryptic relics preserved in other places. This is regarded as the oceanisation of some marginal basins in a context of back-arc rifting. These basins were closed in a mid-Ordovician tectonic phase, related to the subduction of buoyant material (mid-ocean ridge?) Since the Early Ordovician, a new phase of extension is observed, accompanied by a large-scale volcanic activity, erosion of the rift shoulders generated detritus (Armorican Quartzite) and the rift basins collected detrital zircons from a wide hinterland. This phase heralded the opening of Palaeotethys, but it failed due to the Silurian collision (Eo-Variscan phase) of an intra-oceanic arc with the Gondwana margin. During this time period, at the eastern wing of the Gondwana margin begins the drift of the future Hunia microcontinents, through the opening of an eastern prolongation of the already existing Rheic Ocean. The passive margin of the remaining Gondwana was composed of the Galatian superterranes, constituents of the future Variscan basement areas. Remaining under the influence of crustal extension, they will start their drift to Laurussia since the earliest Devonian during the opening of the Palaeotethys Ocean. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Birth weight, weight change, and blood pressure during childhood and adolescence: a school-based multiple cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between birth weight, weight change, and current blood pressure (BP) across the entire age-span of childhood and adolescence in large school-based cohorts in the Seychelles, an island state in the African region. METHODS: Three cohorts were analyzed: 1004 children examined at age 5.5 and 9.1 years, 1886 children at 9.1 and 12.5, and 1575 children at 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Birth and 1-year anthropometric data were gathered from medical files. The outcome was BP at age 5.5, 9.1, 12.5 or 15.5 years, respectively. Conditional linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relative contribution of changes in weight (expressed in z-score) during different age periods on BP. All analyses were adjusted for height. RESULTS: At all ages, current BP was strongly associated with current weight. Birth weight was not significantly associated with current BP. Upon adjustment for current weight, the association between birth weight and current BP tended to become negative. Conditional linear regression analyses indicated that changes in weight during successive age periods since birth contributed substantially to current BP at all ages. The strength of the association between weight change and current BP increased throughout successive age periods. CONCLUSION: Weight changes during any age period since birth have substantial impact on BP during childhood and adolescence, with BP being more responsive to recent than earlier weight changes.

Systematic review protocol to define classical IgE-associated diseases from birth to adolescence: the MeDALL study

BACKGROUND: Classical disease phenotypes are mainly based on descriptions of symptoms and the hypothesis that a given pattern of symptoms provides a diagnosis. With refined technologies there is growing evidence that disease expression in patients is much more diverse and subtypes need to be defined to allow a better targeted treatment. One of the aims of the Mechanisms of the Development of Allergy Project (MeDALL,FP7) is to re-define the classical phenotypes of IgE-associated allergic diseases from birth to adolescence, by consensus among experts using a systematic review of the literature and identify possible gaps in research for new disease markers. This paper describes the methods to be used for the systematic review of the classical IgE-associated phenotypes applicable in general to other systematic reviews also addressing phenotype definitions based on evidence. METHODS/DESIGN: Eligible papers were identified by PubMed search (complete database through April 2011). This search yielded 12,043 citations. The review includes intervention studies (randomized and clinical controlled trials) and observational studies (cohort studies including birth cohorts, case-control studies) as well as case series. Systematic and non-systematic reviews, guidelines, position papers and editorials are not excluded but dealt with separately. Two independent reviewers in parallel conducted consecutive title and abstract filtering scans. For publications where title and abstract fulfilled the inclusion criteria the full text was assessed. In the final step, two independent reviewers abstracted data using a pre-designed data extraction form with disagreements resolved by discussion among investigators. DISCUSSION: The systematic review protocol described here allows to generate broad,multi-phenotype reviews and consensus phenotype definitions. The in-depth analysis of the existing literature on the classification of IgE-associated allergic diseases through such a systematic review will 1) provide relevant information on the current epidemiologic definitions of allergic diseases, 2) address heterogeneity and interrelationships and 3) identify gaps in knowledge.