Nonparametric versus Parametric Statistical Approaches for Genetic Anticipation: The Pancreatic Cancer Case

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 62N01, 62N05, 62P10, 92D10, 92D30.

Facultad por Facultad. Origen familiar y empleo de los licenciados en CCSS y Humanidades de la UCM en el año 2003

Muchos estudios encuentran un efecto del origen social sobre la ocupación y el salario incluso tras controlar la educación. Este efecto, que suele ser pequeño, puede ser un artificio resultante del deficiente control de la educación. Este trabajo examina la importancia de controlar en detalle la educación desagregando las carreras universitarias. Estudiamos el clasismo del mercado de trabajo para una promoción de titulados en Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) en los seis años entre su graduación en 1997 y 2003. Esta es la fecha de la encuesta gracias a la cual podemos medir la influencia del status social de los padres sobre las oportunidades de empleo de los hijos no con título universitario en general, sino con el mismo título universitario. Encontramos que la influencia del origen social sobre la clase profesional y los ingresos disminuye mucho cuando se controlan las titulaciones, y que no se observa en la mayor parte de ellas, pero sí en algunas, en concreto Políticas y Sociología y Económicas. Esta concreción allana el camino para investigar las vías por las que esta influencia se produce.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

Exposure to Trihalomethanes through Different Water Uses and Birth Weight, Small for Gestational Age, and Preterm Delivery in Spain

BACKGROUND Evidence associating exposure to water disinfection by-products with reduced birth weight and altered duration of gestation remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE We assessed exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) during pregnancy through different water uses and evaluated the association with birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), and preterm delivery. METHODS Mother-child cohorts set up in five Spanish areas during the years 2000-2008 contributed data on water ingestion, showering, bathing, and swimming in pools. We ascertained residential THM levels during pregnancy periods through ad hoc sampling campaigns (828 measurements) and regulatory data (264 measurements), which were modeled and combined with personal water use and uptake factors to estimate personal uptake. We defined outcomes following standard definitions and included 2,158 newborns in the analysis. RESULTS Median residential THM ranged from 5.9 μg/L (Valencia) to 114.7 μg/L (Sabadell), and speciation differed across areas. We estimated that 89% of residential chloroform and 96% of brominated THM uptakes were from showering/bathing. The estimated change of birth weight for a 10% increase in residential uptake was -0.45 g (95% confidence interval: -1.36, 0.45 g) for chloroform and 0.16 g (-1.38, 1.70 g) for brominated THMs. Overall, THMs were not associated with SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery. CONCLUSIONS Despite the high THM levels in some areas and the extensive exposure assessment, results suggest that residential THM exposure during pregnancy driven by inhalation and dermal contact routes is not associated with birth weight, SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery in Spain.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Birth weight, weight change, and blood pressure during childhood and adolescence: a school-based multiple cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between birth weight, weight change, and current blood pressure (BP) across the entire age-span of childhood and adolescence in large school-based cohorts in the Seychelles, an island state in the African region. METHODS: Three cohorts were analyzed: 1004 children examined at age 5.5 and 9.1 years, 1886 children at 9.1 and 12.5, and 1575 children at 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Birth and 1-year anthropometric data were gathered from medical files. The outcome was BP at age 5.5, 9.1, 12.5 or 15.5 years, respectively. Conditional linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relative contribution of changes in weight (expressed in z-score) during different age periods on BP. All analyses were adjusted for height. RESULTS: At all ages, current BP was strongly associated with current weight. Birth weight was not significantly associated with current BP. Upon adjustment for current weight, the association between birth weight and current BP tended to become negative. Conditional linear regression analyses indicated that changes in weight during successive age periods since birth contributed substantially to current BP at all ages. The strength of the association between weight change and current BP increased throughout successive age periods. CONCLUSION: Weight changes during any age period since birth have substantial impact on BP during childhood and adolescence, with BP being more responsive to recent than earlier weight changes.

Dissemination of periodic mammography and patterns of use, by birth cohort, in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: In Catalonia (Spain) breast cancer mortality has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. The dissemination of early detection by mammography and the introduction of adjuvant treatments are among the possible causes of this decrease, and both were almost coincident in time. Thus, understanding how these procedures were incorporated into use in the general population and in women diagnosed with breast cancer is very important for assessing their contribution to the reduction in breast cancer mortality. In this work we have modeled the dissemination of periodic mammography and described repeat mammography behavior in Catalonia from 1975 to 2006. Methods: Cross-sectional data from three Catalan Health Surveys for the calendar years 1994, 2002 and 2006 was used. The dissemination of mammography by birth cohort was modeled using a mixed effects model and repeat mammography behavior was described by age and survey year. Results: For women born from 1938 to 1952, mammography clearly had a period effect, meaning that they started to have periodic mammograms at the same calendar years but at different ages. The age at which approximately 50% of the women were receiving periodic mammograms went from 57.8 years of age for women born in 1938–1942 to 37.3 years of age for women born in 1963–1967. Women in all age groups experienced an increase in periodic mammography use over time, although women in the 50–69 age group have experienced the highest increase. Currently, the target population of the Catalan Breast Cancer Screening Program, 50–69 years of age, is the group that self-reports the highest utilization of periodic mammograms, followed by the 40–49 age group. A higher proportion of women of all age groups have annual mammograms rather than biennial or irregular ones. Conclusion: Mammography in Catalonia became more widely implemented during the 1990s. We estimated when cohorts initiated periodic mammograms and how frequently women are receiving them. These two pieces of information will be entered into a cost-effectiveness model of early detection in Catalonia.

Obstetric outcomes in the second birth of women with a previous caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study from Peru

PURPOSE: To examine obstetric outcomes in the second birth of women who had undergone a previous cesarean delivery. METHODS: This was a large hospital-based retrospective cohort study. We included pregnant women who had a previous delivery (vaginal or cesarean) attending their second birth from 2001 to 2009. Main inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies and delivery between a gestation of 24 and 41 weeks. Two cohorts were selected, being women with a previous cesarean delivery (n=7,215) and those with a vaginal one (n=23,720). Both groups were compared and logistic regression was performed to adjust for confounding variables. The obstetric outcomes included uterine rupture, placenta previa, and placental-related complications such as placental abruption, preeclampsia, and spontaneous preterm delivery. RESULTS: Women with previous cesarean delivery were more likely to have adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture (OR=12.4, 95%CI 6.8-22.3), placental abruption (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.1-2.1), preeclampsia (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.2-1.6), and spontaneous preterm delivery (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with previous cesarean section have adverse obstetric outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy, including uterine rupture, and placental-related disorders such as preeclampsia, spontaneous preterm delivery, and placental abruption.

Examining life-course influences on chronic disease: the Ribeirão Preto and São Luís birth cohort studies (Brazil)

More than any other low- and middle-income country, Brazil has the longest research tradition of establishing, maintaining and exploiting birth cohort studies. This research pedigree is highlighted in the present issue of the Brazilian Journal of Medical and Biological Research, which contains a series of twelve papers from the Ribeirão Preto and São Luis birth cohort studies from the Southeast and Northeast of Brazil, respectively. The topics covered in this raft of reports vary and include predictors of perinatal health and maternal risk factors, early life determinants of cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and adolescence, use of health services, and a description of dietary characteristics of young adults, amongst other topics. There is also a guide to the background, objectives, sampling and protocols employed across these studies, which, together with similar pieces published in past issues of the Brazilian Journal, serve as a very useful starting point, particularly for potential collaborators. In the fervent hope that further follow-up of these cohorts will take place - we provide our own justification for cohort maintenance and extension in this issue - future data collection could include: genetic material, atherosclerosis, ascertained, for instance, by intima-media thickness, and IQ testing in children - scores from which are emerging as potentially important predictors of adult health outcomes up to six decades later.

Birth in Brazil: national survey into labour and birth

Background: Caesarean section rates in Brazil have been steadily increasing. In 2009, for the first time, the number of children born by this type of procedure was greater than the number of vaginal births. Caesarean section is associated with a series of adverse effects on the women and newborn, and recent evidence suggests that the increasing rates of prematurity and low birth weight in Brazil are associated to the increasing rates of Caesarean section and labour induction. Methods: Nationwide hospital-based cohort study of postnatal women and their offspring with follow-up at 45 to 60 days after birth. The sample was stratified by geographic macro-region, type of the municipality and by type of hospital governance. The number of postnatal women sampled was 23,940, distributed in 191 municipalities throughout Brazil. Two electronic questionnaires were applied to the postnatal women, one baseline face-to-face and one follow-up telephone interview. Two other questionnaires were filled with information on patients' medical records and to assess hospital facilities. The primary outcome was the percentage of Caesarean sections (total, elective and according to Robson's groups). Secondary outcomes were: post-partum pain; breastfeeding initiation; severe/near miss maternal morbidity; reasons for maternal mortality; prematurity; low birth weight; use of oxygen use after birth and mechanical ventilation; admission to neonatal ICU; stillbirths; neonatal mortality; readmission in hospital; use of surfactant; asphyxia; severe/near miss neonatal morbidity. The association between variables were investigated using bivariate, stratified and multivariate model analyses. Statistical tests were applied according to data distribution and homogeneity of variances of groups to be compared. All analyses were taken into consideration for the complex sample design. Discussion: This study, for the first time, depicts a national panorama of labour and birth outcomes in Brazil. Regardless of the socioeconomic level, demand for Caesarean section appears to be based on the belief that the quality of obstetric care is closely associated to the technology used in labour and birth. Within this context, it was justified to conduct a nationwide study to understand the reasons that lead pregnant women to submit to Caesarean sections and to verify any association between this type of birth and it's consequences on postnatal health.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: Descriptive epidemiology, secular trends, and birth cohort effects on incidence, 1950--1989

This study describes the patterns of occurrence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and parkinsonism-dementia complex (PDC) of Guam during 1950-1989. Both ALS and PDC occur with high frequency among the indigenous Chamorro population, first recognized in the early 1950's. Reports in the early 1980's indicated that both ALS and PDC were disappearing, due to a purported reduction in exposure to harmful environmental factors as a result of the dramatic changes in lifestyle that took place after World War II. However, this study provides compelling evidence that ALS and PDC have not disappeared on Guam and that rates for both are higher during 1980-1989 than previously reported.^ The patterns of occurrence for both ALS and PDC overlap in most respects: (1) incidence and mortality are decreasing; (2) median age at onset is increasing; (3) males are at increased risk for developing disease; (4) risk is higher for those residing in the south compared to the non-south; and (5) age-specific incidence is decreasing over time except in the oldest age groups.^ Age-specific incidence of ALS and PDC, separately and together, is generally higher for cohorts born before 1920 than for those born after 1920. A significant birth cohort effect on the incidence of PDC for the 1906-1915 birth cohort was found, but not for ALS and for ALS and PDC together. Whether or not a cohort effect, period effect, or both are associated with incidence of ALS and PDC cannot be determined from the data currently available and will require additional follow-up of individuals born after 1920.^ The epidemiological data amassed over this 40-year period provide evidence that supports an environmental exposure model for disease occurrence as opposed to a simple genetic or infectious disease model. Whether neurodegenerative disease in this population occurs as a consequence of a single exposure or is explained by a multifactorial model such as a genetic predisposition with some environmental interaction is yet to be determined. However, descriptive studies such as this can provide clues concerning timing and location of potential adverse exposures but cannot determine etiology, underscoring the urgent need for analytic studies of ALS and PDC to further investigate existing etiologic hypotheses and to test new hypotheses. ^

Lifespan depends on month of birth

Month of birth influences adult life expectancy at ages 50+. Why? In two countries of the Northern Hemisphere–Austria and Denmark–people born in autumn (October–December) live longer than those born in spring (April–June). Data for Australia show that, in the Southern Hemisphere, the pattern is shifted by half a year. The lifespan pattern of British immigrants to Australia is similar to that of Austrians and Danes and significantly different from that of Australians. These findings are based on population data with more than a million observations and little or no selectivity. The differences in lifespan are independent of the seasonal distribution of deaths and the social differences in the seasonal distribution of births. In the Northern Hemisphere, the excess mortality in the first year of life of infants born in spring does not support the explanation of selective infant survival. Instead, remaining life expectancy at age 50 appears to depend on factors that arise in utero or early in infancy and that increase susceptibility to diseases later in life. This result is consistent with the finding that, at the turn of the last century, infants born in autumn had higher birth weights than those born in other seasons. Furthermore, differences in adult lifespan by month of birth decrease over time and are significantly smaller in more recent cohorts, which benefited from substantial improvements in maternal and infant health.

Balance ability in 7- and 10-year-old children:associations with prenatal lead and cadmium exposure and with blood lead levels in childhood in a prospective birth cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Most studies reporting evidence of adverse effects of lead and cadmium on the ability to balance have been conducted in high-exposure groups or have included adults. The effects of prenatal exposure have not been well studied, nor have the effects in children been directly studied. The aim of the study was to identify the associations of lead (in utero and in childhood) and cadmium (in utero) exposure with the ability to balance in children aged 7 and 10 years. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Maternal blood lead (n=4285) and cadmium (n=4286) levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in women enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) during pregnancy. Child lead levels were measured in a subsample of 582 of ALSPAC children at age 30 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Children completed a heel-to-toe walking test at 7 years. At 10 years, the children underwent clinical tests of static and dynamic balance. Statistical analysis using SPSS V.19 included logistic regression modelling, comparing categories of ≥ 5 vs <5 µg/dL for lead, and ≥ 1 vs <1 µg/L for cadmium. RESULTS: Balance at age 7 years was not associated with elevated in utero lead or cadmium exposure (adjusted OR for balance dysfunction: Pb 1.01 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.01), n=1732; Cd 0.95 (0.77 to 1.20), n=1734), or with elevated child blood lead level at age 30 months (adjusted OR 0.98 (0.92 to 1.05), n=354). Similarly, neither measures of static nor dynamic balance at age 10 years were associated with in utero lead or cadmium exposure, or child lead level. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not provide any evidence of an association of prenatal exposure to lead or cadmium, or lead levels in childhood, on balance ability in children. Confirmation in other cohorts is needed.

Neonatal Outcomes Of Late Preterm And Early Term Birth.

To compare neonatal deaths and complications in infants born at 34-36 weeks and six days (late preterm: LPT) with those born at term (37-41 weeks and six days); to compare deaths of early term (37-38 weeks) versus late term (39-41 weeks and six days) infants; to search for any temporal trend in LPT rate. A retrospective cohort study of live births was conducted in the Campinas State University, Brazil, from January 2004 to December 2010. Multiple pregnancies, malformations and congenital diseases were excluded. Control for confounders was performed. The level of significance was set at p<0.05. After exclusions, there were 17,988 births (1653 late preterm and 16,345 term infants). A higher mortality in LPT versus term was observed, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 5.29 (p<0.0001). Most complications were significantly associated with LPT births. There was a significant increase in LPT rate throughout the study period, but no significant trend in the rate of medically indicated deliveries. A higher mortality was observed in early term versus late term infants, with adjusted OR: 2.43 (p=0.038). LPT and early term infants have a significantly higher risk of death.

Effects Of Therapeutic Approach On The Neonatal Evolution Of Very Low Birth Weight Infants With Patent Ductus Arteriosus.

To analyze the effects of treatment approach on the outcomes of newborns (birth weight [BW] < 1,000 g) with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), from the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network (BNRN) on: death, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH III/IV), retinopathy of prematurity requiring surgical (ROPsur), necrotizing enterocolitis requiring surgery (NECsur), and death/BPD. This was a multicentric, cohort study, retrospective data collection, including newborns (BW < 1000 g) with gestational age (GA) < 33 weeks and echocardiographic diagnosis of PDA, from 16 neonatal units of the BNRN from January 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2011. Newborns who died or were transferred until the third day of life, and those with presence of congenital malformation or infection were excluded. Groups: G1 - conservative approach (without treatment), G2 - pharmacologic (indomethacin or ibuprofen), G3 - surgical ligation (independent of previous treatment). Factors analyzed: antenatal corticosteroid, cesarean section, BW, GA, 5 min. Apgar score < 4, male gender, Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension (SNAPPE II), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), late sepsis (LS), mechanical ventilation (MV), surfactant (< 2 h of life), and time of MV. death, O2 dependence at 36 weeks (BPD36wks), IVH III/IV, ROPsur, NECsur, and death/BPD36wks. Student's t-test, chi-squared test, or Fisher's exact test; Odds ratio (95% CI); logistic binary regression and backward stepwise multiple regression. Software: MedCalc (Medical Calculator) software, version 12.1.4.0. p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. 1,097 newborns were selected and 494 newborns were included: G1 - 187 (37.8%), G2 - 205 (41.5%), and G3 - 102 (20.6%). The highest mortality was observed in G1 (51.3%) and the lowest in G3 (14.7%). The highest frequencies of BPD36wks (70.6%) and ROPsur were observed in G3 (23.5%). The lowest occurrence of death/BPD36wks occurred in G2 (58.0%). Pharmacological (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14-0.62) and conservative (OR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.79) treatments were protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks. The conservative approach of PDA was associated to high mortality, the surgical approach to the occurrence of BPD36wks and ROPsur, and the pharmacological treatment was protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks.