中国东北样带孢粉-植被的定量关系及古生物群区的反演

基于中国东北样带（NECT）30个植被样方调查和表土孢粉资料，从个体、群落水平研究了孢粉－植被关系，结果表明，孢粉类型与植被关系密切，在 ＝ 0．05的显著性水平上，相关系数大于0．5;表土孢粉组合与植物群落间有较大的相似性，相似系数大于50％。采用定量描述花粉与植物关系的参数：联合指数（association）A、超代表性指数（over-representation）O、低代表性指数（under-representation）U、相关系数（correlation coefficient）C和代表性系数（representation coefficient）R等值，应用TWINSPAN分类、PCA排序和回归分析，把表土花粉类型划分为4类：具代表性类群组Group1，它们能正确反映植被;超代表性类群组Group2，它们常具有高花粉值与植被不成比例;低代表性类群组Group3，它们的花粉很难分离提取;以及低代表性类群的Group4，其花粉在土壤地层中较常见;指出一些常见花粉类型：松（Pinus）、桦（Betula）、栎（Quercus）、椴（Tilia）、槭（Acer）、榆（Ulmus）、蒿（Artemisia）、藜（Chenopodiaceae）、禾本科（Gramineae）和莎草科（Cyperaceae）的回归参数在东部森林区和西部草原区是有变化的，因此回归参数在应用于古植被恢复中要注意适用范围。 以Biomization模型为基础，根据植物的生理生态特性，定义了NECT孢粉类型的植物功能型（PETs）各种生物群区（Biome）的PFTs组合，构建了经表土孢粉检验的适用于NECT的以孢粉数据为驱动的模型框架，该模型模拟的生物群区与其化指标（气候、植物生理、土壤等）模拟划分的BIOME（Holdrige, BIOME3）是可比的，与植被类型有较好的对应性。 根据29剖面（986个样品）的孢粉数据，重建了NECT 6 kaB.P以来的生物群区。从时空二方面阐述了NECT6kaB.P以来生物群区的分布特点： （1）6ka B. P是一暖湿期，气温比现在高1～4℃，降水比现在多50％。落叶阔叶林分最广，面积最大。森林草原、落叶阔叶林、针阔混交林向西延伸最远。 （2）5ka B. P 是一降温期，气温比现在低2℃，降水多30％。有苔原、寒温带针叶林分布。 （3）4ka B. P是一暖湿期，气温比现在高1～2℃，降水比现在多50％。针阔光林和森林草原有最大分布面积。 （4）3Ka－2kaBP的气温与现代相似，降水比现在多20％左右。与4Ka B. P相比，森林和森林草原过渡带都向东移动。 （5）1Ka B. P的气温与现代相似，降水比现在多10％左右。草原向东大幅度扩张，森林分布面积减小。 （6）东部森林，中部森林草原，西部草原的分布格局的3Ka B. P基本确定，此后随着气候的不断变干冷，草原向东扩张。 （7）森林向扩张最大距离的时期发生在6Ka B. P，此时也是森林草原向西扩张最远时期。落叶阔叶林、针阔混交林、森林草原向西移动最大距离的时间是6Ka B. P，草原向西移动最远距离的时期发生在3Ka B. P。

全球气候变化条件下新疆天山云杉林生长的分析与模拟

气候变化对人类赖以生存的陆地生态系统尤其是森林会产生很大的影响。本论文选择新疆天山东部的伊吾、中部的天池和小渠子、西部的昭苏四个代表性样点，利用BIOME-BGC模型和树木年轮分析方法探讨1961 ~ 2000年间气候变化和大气CO2浓度增高对天山北坡地带性植被天山云杉林（Picea schrenkiana）生长的影响，并利用BIOME-BGC模型预测未来气候变化条件下天山云杉林生产力的可能变化。 利用BIOME-BGC模型模拟了当前气候和CO2浓度条件下四个研究样点净初级生产力（NPP）特征。比较BIOME-BGC模型模拟值与实测NPP、树木年轮指数，结果表明该模型适用于天山北坡天山云杉林的模拟研究。 以BIOME-BGC模型模拟的NPP和树木年轮宽度指数作为生长指标，分析了天山云杉林过去40年的生长特点和趋势。结果表明近40年来天山云杉林生长总体上呈现上升趋势，尤其是自1987年以后，变化幅度更大。天山云杉林的生长对气候变化的反应很敏感，年降水量与当年的NPP呈现显著正相关关系（R=0.774 ~ 0.882，P < 0.001）。年降水量与树木年轮宽度指数也呈现出相似的相关关系，但相关系数相对较小（0.305 ~ 0.544），其中只有昭苏和小渠子样点达到显著水平。在昭苏和伊吾，年平均温度与对应年份的NPP相关关系微弱，相关系数仅分别为0.036和0.159。而天山中部的小渠子和天池年平均温度与对应年份的NPP呈显著负相关关系（相关系数分别为-0.324和-0.322;P <0.05）,这可能是由于温度的升高加剧水分胁迫，导致NPP下降。年平均温度与树木年轮宽度指数的相关关系与NPP的基本一致。同时，年平均温度也表现出比较强的滞后效应,尤其是滞后两年的效应，这可能是由于温度的升高，加速养分循环产生施肥效应，从而间接促进天山云杉林的生长。近40年来，大气CO2浓度的增高对天山云杉林生长具有一定促进作用，NPP升高的幅度为1.85 ~ 4.51%,根据树木年轮估算大气CO2施肥效应β相对比较小,仅为0.133。进一步分析表明大气 CO2浓度主要是通过提高水分利用效率的途径促进天山云杉林生长。 利用RegCM2区域气候模式模拟的大气CO2倍增时（大约2070年）的气候变化情形作为输入参数，应用BIOME-BGC模型预测了在未来气候状况发生改变，而大气CO2浓度没有变化的情况下（C0T1P1），天山云杉林的NPP增长幅度为13.33 ~ 29.11%,其中对东部伊吾NPP的促进作用最大，其次是中部的小渠子和天池，而对西部昭苏NPP的影响最小;结合当前气候条件和大气CO2浓度加倍情形（C1T0P0），模拟结果表明NPP在比较温暖的天山中部和西部将会有所增加，增加幅度为1.17 ~ 8.62%，而在寒冷的东部伊吾，NPP则会下降2.50%, CO2的施肥效应表现出很大的温度依赖性;结合气候变化和大气CO2浓度加倍情形（C1T1P1），模拟结果表明NPP的增加幅度将会上升为26.43 ~ 37.24%，温度、降水和大气CO2浓度对NPP的影响存在较强的交互作用。 研究表明树木年轮真实记录了树木在自然条件下长期的生长特征，是验证生态系统模型比较理想的材料之一。生态系统模型可以从机理上对生态系统的生物物理过程以及影响因子进行分析和模拟。本研究利用生态系统模型与树木年轮方法相结合很好地揭示天山云杉林的生长与全球气候变化之间的相互关系。同时，研究表明未来气候变化有利于天山云杉林的生长，天山云杉林可能会成为一个重要的碳汇而在碳循环研究中倍受关注。

沿水分梯度草原群落NPP动态及对气候变化响应的模拟分析

水分条件不仅影响半干旱区群落的组成，而且在一定程度上决定了群落的功能。处于不同水分条件生境下群落的优势物种在水分利用和同化物利用效率方面的功能特征会存在差异，这些差异将导致群落对于气候变化产生不同的响应，进而影响到景观和区域尺度上对于全球变化下碳动态和格局的分析。本研究选取了锡林河流域典型草原区沿水分梯度的四个代表群落，在野外实验测定并结合长期定位研究成果基础上，利用BIOME-BGC模型对代表群落的长期净初级生产力(NPP)动态进行了模拟和模型验证。通过分析该地区1953~2005年气候变化趋势，推测了未来可能的气候变化情景，进而模拟了气候变化下四个群落长期NPP动态的响应。 野外实验分析表明，在四个群落中，净光合速率与光合有效辐射呈单峰曲线关系，与温度和蒸气压亏损(VPD)成反比，叶片氮含量和比叶面积也会影响到光合能力。四个群落由于水分与土壤条件的差别，净光合速率随VPD与温度的变化表现出不同的增减幅度。将日变化分为四个阶段，分别为大致在6:00~8:00左右的低温高湿阶段，10:00~16:00的高温低湿阶段，16:00以后的低温低湿阶段和低温高湿阶段变为高温低湿阶段过程中的适温适湿阶段。在每个阶段中，影响羊草光合速率的主导因子是不同的。在不同的水分与土壤状况下，羊草的光合特性表现出明显差异，但总体说来水分仍是光合作用的主导因子。 模型模拟结果表明，当前气候条件下，羊草群落NPP平均值为197.76 gC m-2 (SE=7.11)，大针茅群落NPP平均值为198.95 gC m-2 (SE=6.41)，贝加尔针茅群落NPP平均值为210.41 gC m-2 (SE=7.87)，克氏针茅群落NPP平均值为144.92 gC m-2 (SE=4.64)，四个群落NPP平均值为188.01 gC m-2 (SE=3.72)。 日最高温度与最低温度在1953~2005年间都明显增加，而降水变化很大。温度增加下(P0T1)NPP平均下降14.2%，降水增加下(P1T0)NPP平均增加13.2%，温度与降水都增加情景下(P1T1)NPP平均下降2.7%。在半干旱区，降水是NPP变化的主要限制因子，而温度通过影响了植物的呼吸与蒸散作用对NPP产生影响。 由于生境水分条件差别和优势物种功能特征差异，四个群落在气候变化中表现出对温度与降水不同的敏感程度，这与水分胁迫系数WSI、碳胁迫系数CSI变化密切相关。克氏针茅群落由于所处生境水分条件差，水分胁迫系数高，对降水的依赖程度最大;贝加尔针茅群落一方面处于较好的水分生境，具有相对较小的水分胁迫系数，另一方面，由于具有高碳氮比，维持呼吸消耗的光合产物比例低，碳胁迫系数远低于其它三个群落，未来气候变化下NPP较其它三个群落仍较高。

中国西部亚热带常绿阔叶林木本植物小枝功能生态学初步研究

常绿阔叶林以其富饶的生物资源、丰富的生物多样性和巨大的生态与环境效益引起了人们越来越大的重视，它的研究已成为国际植被科学界关注的主题之一。我国分布着世界上面积最大的亚热带常绿阔叶林，在世界植被中具有重要地位，它的分布表现出明显的地带性差异，存在着多样的植物群系及其对应的气候特征。但是在植物功能性状领域，与全球范围其它生物群系相比，常绿阔叶林物种的研究较少，其功能性状间、功能性状与环境间的关系尚不清晰。 本研究以常绿阔叶林木本植物的当年生小枝为对象，试图从小枝水平上的生物量分配格局、叶片大小与数量的权衡关系、小枝茎的构型效应、叶片元素化学计量学，以及小枝大小的成本与效益分析等方面，较为系统地揭示小枝水平上的植物功能性状间及其与气候间的关系。因此，在华西雨屏带内部的不同纬度设置峨眉－青城－雷波－平武的温度梯度进行比较，并对有降水差异的川西南偏湿性（雷波）与偏干性常绿阔叶林（西昌）进行对比研究，同时在不同山体进行不同海拔梯度的比较研究。 本文主要研究结果如下： （1）小枝生物量分配格局叶水平上，叶片重－叶柄重（Y轴vs.X轴,下同）呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，表明叶柄对叶内部的生物量分配影响显著。小枝水平上，叶和茎的生物量以及它们与小枝总生物量间基本呈等速生长关系，表明大的小枝或大叶物种不一定在叶生物量的分配上占优势。不同生活型间，在小枝或者茎的生物量一定时，常绿物种叶片的生物量比例较落叶物种稍高。与温度和水分较优越（峨眉及其低海拔）的生境相比，在相对低湿（螺髻）与低温（平武）的生境中的植物会减少对叶的投入而增加对支撑部分的投资比例。 （2）小枝叶片大小与数量的权衡无论是不同气候带还是不同生活型以及不同海拔梯度，叶片大小与出叶强度基本都是呈负的等速生长关系，表明了叶片大小－数量在小枝水平上的权衡。在不同气候梯度的对比中，叶片数量（出叶强度）一定时，高温和高水分生境（峨眉）比低温（平武）和低湿（螺髻山）生境中的物种的叶片大小（质量和面积）更大，表明不同生境的比较中，小的叶片可能具有较高的出叶强度和更高的适合度收益。“出叶强度优势”（Leafingintensitypremium）假说可能不适宜解释不同生境物种叶片大小差异。 （3）小枝茎的构型效应虽然茎长和茎径与叶片大小都呈正相关关系，与出叶强度都呈负相关关系，但茎长/茎径比与叶/茎生物量之比呈负相关关系；与叶片的大小呈负相关关系，与出叶强度呈正相关关系。这说明小枝构型能影响小枝叶/茎生物量分配和叶大小－数量的权衡关系。其影响机制可能是小枝内部的顶端优势。另外，茎长/茎径比在低湿和低温等不利生境中的植物中较高，而在降水和温度较适宜环境中较低。 （4）叶片C、N、P化学计量学N含量和P含量，C/N比和比叶重（LMA,leafmassperarea）呈正的等速生长关系，而N和LMA，P和LMA呈负的等速生长关系。在LMA一定时，C/N比随着生境胁迫压力的增加而降低，N、P含量随着生境压力的增加而增加。在P含量一定时，N含量随着生境压力的增加而降低，即N/P比在生境条件较优（峨眉及其低海拔）时较高。常绿和落叶植物叶片的N/P比没有差异，在LMA一定时，常绿植物的N、P含量较高、C/N比较低。总之，植物的C、N、P化学计量学特征受叶片属性如LMA与气候，及其相互作用的影响。 （5）小枝大小的代价与效益分析、TLA与小枝总重总叶面积（TLA,totalleafarea，Y轴，下同）与总叶重（X轴）均呈斜率小于1的异速生长关系，TLA与小枝横切面积呈斜率为1的等速生长关系。表明叶片面积的增加总是小于叶重和小枝总重的增加，随着小枝的增大，它的叶面积支撑效率下降。在热量和降水优越的生境（峨眉及其低海拔）中，相同小枝重或者相同茎横切面积的小枝，其叶面积支撑效率较低湿与低温环境下（螺髻山、平武及高海拔）的高。 总体上，本文初步研究了小枝水平上可能存在的以下三种权衡关系：叶－茎生物量分配权衡；叶片大小－数量的权衡；小枝茎长－茎径的权衡关系，以及气候要素等对这三种权衡关系的影响。在此基础上，我们还讨论了这些权衡关系的可能形成机制，及其与物种生态适应的联系。本研究丰富了生活史对策中关于权衡关系的研究内容，为我国常绿阔叶林功能生态学研究积累了材料。 Evergreen broad-leaved forests are attracting much more attention from vegetation ecologists than ever before because of their abundant nature resource and biological diversity, and also great ecological benefits. China has the largest distribution of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (temperate rainforests) that are typical and representative in the world. The forests span over more than ten degrees in latitude and more than 30 degrees in longitude, providing an ideal place to study plant functional ecology, i.e., the climatic effect on plant functional traits and the relationship between the traits. However, relative to the other biomes, there are few studies addressing functional ecology of the plant species from subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. In this study, I focused on the leaf size-twig size spectrum of the woody species of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in southwestern china. I collected data on leaf size and number, twig size in terms of both mass and volume, and stem architecture from five temperate mountains, and then I analyzed the relationships between leaf and stem biomass and between leaf size and number, the effect of stem length/diameter ratio on biomass allocation and on the relationship between leaf size and number, leaf C:N:P stoichiometry, and the twig efficiency of supporting leaf area in relation to twig size. I also addressed the climate effect on the spectrum. The temperature gradient from warm to cool sites was represented by Emei Mountain, Qingchengshan, Leibo, and Pingwu, and the rainfall gradient was assumed to emerge from the comparison between Leibo (High) and Luojishan (Low). In addition, altitudinal effects were analyzed with comparisons between low and high altitudes for each mountains. My main results are as follows. Isometric relationships were found between leaf mass and twig mass and between lamina mass and twig mass, suggesting that the biomass allocation to leaves or laminas was independent of twig mass. Petiole mass disproportionably increase with respect to lamina mass and twig mass, indicating the importance of leaf petioles to the within-twig biomass allocation. In addition, the investigated species tended to have a larger leaf and lamina mass, but a smaller stem mass at a given twig mass at favorable environments including warm and humid sites or at low altitude than unfavorable habitats, which might be due to the large requirements in physical support and transporting safety for the species living at unfavorable conditions. Moreover, the evergreen species invested more in leaves and laminas than the deciduous at given stem or twig biomass within any specified habitats. Negative, isometric scaling relationships between leaf number and size broadly existed in the species regardless of climate, altitude, and life forms, suggesting a leaf size/number trade-off within twigs. Along the climatic gradients, at given leaf number or leafing intensity, the leaves were larger in the favorable environments than the poor habitats. This suggested that the fitness benefit gained by small leaves could be larger than that with high leafing intensity in the stressful sites. I concluded that the “leafing intensity premium” hypothesis was not appropriate to interpreting between-habitat variation in leaf size. Both stem length and diameter were positively correlated to leaf size but negatively correlated to leafing intensity. The ratio of stem length to diameter was negatively correlated to leaf mass fraction, and it was negatively correlated to leaf size but positively correlated to leafing intensity. This suggested that the stem architecture influenced twig biomass allocation and the relationship between leaf size and number. The mechanism underlying the architectural effect might lie in the apical dominance within twig. Moreover, the ratio was greater in unfavorable habitats but smaller in favorable environments. Positive, isometric relationships were found between N and P contents per leaf mass, and between C/N ratio and leaf mass per area (LMA), but N and P contents scaled negatively to LMA. C/N ratio decreased but N and P increased with increasing habitat stress at a given LMA. N content declined with increasing habitat stress at given P content. These indicated that N/P and C/N were higher but LMA was lower in favorable habitats than in the other circumstances. The evergreen and deciduous species were non-heterogeneous in N/P, but the evergreen species have higher N and P contents and lower C/N than the deciduous ones. In general, C:N:P stoichiometry were related to both climatic conditions and other important functional traits like LMA. Total leaf area (TLA) allometricly scaled to leaf mass with a slope shallower than 1, similar to the relationship between TLA and total twig mass (leaf mass plus stem mass), suggesting that TLA failed to keep pace with the increase of leaf mass and twig size. However, TLA scaled isometricly to twig cross-sectional area. Thus, it could be inferred that the twig efficiency of displaying leaf area decreased with increasing twig size. In addition, the efficiency at a given twig size was large in favorable than unfavorable habitats. In general, in this preliminary study, I studied three tradeoff relationships within twigs, i.e., between leaf and stem biomass, between leaf number and size, and between stem length and diameter, as well as the climatic effect on the relationships. I discussed the mechanisms underlying the tradeoff relationships in view of biophysics and eco-physiology of plants. I believe that this study can serve as important materials advancing plant functional ecology of subtropical forest and that it will improve the understanding of life history strategies of plants from this particular biome.

气候变化对森林演替的影响

森林演替是森林生态动力源驱动下森林再生的生态学过程 ,自 2 0世纪初建立群落演替理论以来 ,演替研究成为生态学研究中的热点 .客观准确地认识森林演替规律 ,研究森林演替动力学机理及其模型 ,是科学管理森林生态系统的需要 ;对于天然林保护工程与森林植被的恢复重建 ,具有重要的理论与实际意义 .干扰是森林循环的驱动力 ,导致森林生态系统时空异质性 ,是更新格局和生态学过程的主要影响因素 .它可改变资源的有效性 ,干扰导致的林隙是森林循环的起点 .回顾了目前演替研究的几种方法 ,即马尔科夫模型、林窗模型 (GAP)、陆地生物圈模型 (BIOME)和非线性演替模式 .介绍了气候变化对森林演替的影响 ;并在已有成果的基础上 ,提出了目前研究存在的问题及未来的发展方向 .

不同类型生态系统水热碳通量的监测与研究

亚太地区环境革新战略项目(APEIS)在中国5种主要生态系统类型区(草地:海北、耕地:禹城、稻田:桃源、林地:千烟洲、荒漠:阜康)建立了一个以连续观测能量、水分和碳素通量为中心,包括气象、水文、土壤、植被等各项生态要素的监测网络系统,被称之为APEIS-FLUX系统.作者首先对APEIS-FLUX系统的观测数据进行了初步分析,表明该系统稳定可靠,它可以实时地提供高质量、高精度、长期而连续的通量及生态要素的观测数据.对数据的比较清楚地反映出了不同生态系统类型区的水热碳通量的差异性.其次,利用APEIS-FLUX数据对美国航空航天局(NASA)的MODIS数据产品进行比较验证后发现,除部分产品如地表面温度(MOD11)等与观测数据较吻合以外,大部分数据产品如土地覆盖(MOD12),叶面积指数(MOD15)和光合速率与净第一性生产力(MOD17)等都与观测数据相差深远,有必要对其处理程序和模式进行修正.为此,我们利用APEIS-FLUX的数据作为MOD15和MOD17的生成模型(BIOME-BGC)的输入数据,并对该模型的有关参数进行了修订.结果表明,该模式在通过修正后,可以很好地模拟植被的生长过程及其相应的水热碳循环过程.

Macroecology of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas

Global climate change is expected to modify the spatial distribution of marine organisms. However, projections of future changes should be based on robust information on the ecological niche of species. This paper presents a macroecological study of the environmental tolerance and ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson 1957, i.e. the field of tolerance of a species to the principal factors of its environment) of Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Biological data were collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) Survey, which samples plankton in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas at a standard depth of 7 m. Eleven parameters were chosen including bathymetry, temperature, salinity, nutrients, mixed-layer depth and an index of turbulence compiled from wind data and chlorophyll a concentrations (used herein as an index of available food). The environmental window and the optimum level were determined for both species and for each abiotic factor and chlorophyll concentration. The most important parameters that influenced abundance and spatial distribution were temperature and its correlates such as oxygen and nutrients. Bathymetry and other water-column-related parameters also played an important role. The ecological niche of C. finmarchicus was larger than that of C. helgolandicus and both niches were significantly separated. Our results have important implications in the context of global climate change. As temperature (and to some extent stratification) is predicted to continue to rise in the North Atlantic sector, changes in the spatial distribution of these 2 Calanus species can be expected. Application of this approach to the 1980s North Sea regime shift provides evidence that changes in sea temperature alone could have triggered the substantial and rapid changes identified in the dynamic regimes of these ecosystems. C. finmarchicus appears to be a good indicator of the Atlantic Polar Biome (mainly the Atlantic Subarctic and Arctic provinces) while C. helgolandicus is an indicator of more temperate waters (Atlantic Westerly Winds Biome) in regions characterised by more pronounced spatial changes in bathymetry.

RRS Discovery DY021 Cruise Report, March 2015

The Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry research programme directly relates to the delivery of the NERC Earth system science theme and aims to provide evidence that supports a number of marine policy areas and statutory requirements, such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and Marine and Climate Acts. The shelf seas are highly productive compared to the open ocean, a productivity that underpins more than 90 per cent of global fisheries. Their importance to society extends beyond food production to include issues of biodiversity, carbon cycling and storage, waste disposal, nutrient cycling, recreation and renewable energy resources. The shelf seas have been estimated to be the most valuable biome on Earth, but they are under considerable stress, as a result of anthropogenic nutrient loading, overfishing, habitat disturbance, climate change and other impacts. However, even within the relatively well-studied European shelf seas, fundamental biogeochemical processes are poorly understood. For example: the role of shelf seas in carbon storage; in the global cycles of key nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and iron); and in determining primary and secondary production, and thereby underpinning the future delivery of many other ecosystem services. Improved knowledge of such factors is not only required by marine policymakers; it also has the potential to increase the quality and cost-effectiveness of management decisions at the local, national and international levels under conditions of climate change. The Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry research programme will take a holistic approach to the cycling of nutrients and carbon and the controls on primary and secondary production in UK and European shelf seas, to increase understanding of these processes and their role in wider biogeochemical cycles. It will thereby significantly improve predictive marine biogeochemical and ecosystem models over a range of scales. The scope of the programme includes exchanges with the open ocean (transport on and off the shelf to a depth of around 500m), together with cycling, storage and release processes on the shelf slope, and air-sea exchange of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide). The DY021 cruise is the first of the 2015 Benthic SSB cruises to investigate the 4 main ‘representative’ sites in the Celtic Sea that will represent all the various sediment types found in the whole area, these being Mud, San, Sandy-Mud and Muddy-Sand. The cruise will also carry out complimentary sampling at the Pelagic SSB programme main site called CANDYFLOSS in the central Shelf area in order to better link the Benthic and Pelagic programmes.

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

The Klondike goldfields and Pleistocene environments of Beringia

The Klondike goldfields of Yukon, Canada, contain a key record of Pleistocene Beringia, the region of Alaska, Siberia, and Yukon that remained largely unglaciated during the late Cenozoic. A concentration of mining exposures, with relict permafrost that is locally more than 700,000 years old, provides exceptional preservation of paleoenvironmental archives and a new perspective on the nature of paleoenvironments during the Pleistocene. A critical feature is the stratigraphic association of distal tephra beds with these paleoenvironmental archives, which facilitates their regional correlation and, in many cases, provides independent ages for the paleoenvironmental assemblages. Paleoenvironmental analyses of fossil arctic ground-squirrel middens and buried vegetation indicate the presence of cryoxerophilous ("steppe-tundra") vegetation growing on well-drained substrates with deep active layers (seasonal thaw depths) during cold intervals of the Pleistocene. Studies of full-glacial paleosols and cryostratigraphic relations of associated ground ice indicate the importance of active loess deposition and surface vegetation cover in maintaining the functionally distinct mammoth-steppe biome, which supported grazing mega-fauna populations, including mammoth, horse, and bison.

Rapid succession of plant associations on the small ocean island of Mauritius at the onset of the Holocene

The island of Mauritius offers the opportunity to study the poorly understood vegetation response to climate change on a small tropical oceanic island. A high-resolution pollen record from a 10 m long peat core from Kanaka Crater (560 m elevation, Mauritius, Indian Ocean) shows that vegetation shifted from a stable open wet forest Last Glacial state to a stable closed-stratified-tall-forest Holocene state. An ecological threshold was crossed at ∼11.5 cal ka BP, propelling the forest ecosystem into an unstable period lasting ∼4000 years. The shift between the two steady states involves a cascade of four abrupt (<150 years) forest transitions in which different tree species dominated the vegetation for a quasi-stable period of respectively ∼1900, ∼1100 and ∼900 years. We interpret the first forest transition as climate-driven, reflecting the response of a small low topography oceanic island where significant spatial biome migration is impossible. The three subsequent forest transitions are not evidently linked to climate events, and are suggested to be driven by internal forest dynamics. The cascade of four consecutive events of species turnover occurred at a remarkably fast rate compared to changes during the preceding and following periods, and might therefore be considered as a composite tipping point in the ecosystem. We hypothesize that wet gallery forest, spatially and temporally stabilized by the drainage system, served as a long lasting reservoir of biodiversity and facilitated a rapid exchange of species with the montane forests to allow for a rapid cascade of plant associations.

Coleoptera and microbe biomass in Antarctic Dry Valley paleosols adjacent to the Inland Ice: Implications for Mars

Bulk paleosol samples collected from a Middle to Early Miocene moraine in the New Mountain area of the Dry Valleys, Antarctica, yielded Coleoptera exoskeletons and occasional endoskeletons showing considerable diagenetic effects along with several species of bacteria, all lodged in a dry-frozen but salt-rich horizon at shallow depth to the land surface. The till is at the older end of a chronologic sequence of glacial deposits, thought to have been deposited before the transition from wet-based to cold-based ice (similar to 15 Ma), and hence, entirely weathered in contact with the subaerial atmosphere. It is possible, though not absolutely verifiable, that the skeletons date from this early stage of emplacement having undergone modifications whenever light snowmelt occurred or salt concentrations lowered the freezing temperature to maintain water as liquid. Correlation of the Coleoptera species with cultured bacteria in the sample and the likelihood of co-habitation with Beauveria bassiani found in two adjacent, although younger paleosols, leads to new questions about the antiquity of the Coleoptera and the source of N and glucose from chitinase derived from the insects. The skeletons in the 831 section may date close to the oldest preserved chitin (Oligocene) yet found on Earth. While harsh Martian conditions make it seemingly intolerable for complex, multicellular organisms such as insects to exist in the near-surface and subaerially, life within similar cold, dry paleosol microenvironments (Cryosols) of Antarctica point to life potential for the Red Planet, especially when considering the relatively diverse microbe (bacteria and fungi) population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A high resolution 15,600-year pollen and microcharcoal record from the Cederberg Mountains, South Africa

The Cederberg Mountains (Western Cape Province, South Africa) are located within the Fynbos Biome, which exhibits some of the highest levels of species richness and endemism in the world. The region's post-glacial vegetation history, however, remains largely unknown. Presented here are high resolution pollen and microcharcoal records spanning the last 15,600 years obtained from the De Rif rock hyrax midden from the Driehoek Valley of the central Cederberg. In this region, previous pollen studies have shown muted variability in vegetation community composition during periods of globally marked climatic variability (e.g. the last glacial-interglacial transition). In our record, however, significant changes in vegetation composition are apparent. Most notably, they indicate a shift from ericaceous/restioid fynbos (present from 15,600 to 13,300 cal yr BP) to a brief, but prominent, development of proteoid fynbos at the beginning of the Holocene around 11,200 cal yr BP. This vegetation shift is associated with increased moisture at the site, and coincides with reduced fire frequency as indicated by the microcharcoal record. At 10,400 cal yr BP, there is a marked reduction in Protea-type pollen, which is replaced by thicket, characterised by Dodonaea, which became the dominant arboreal pollen type. This shift was likely the result of a long relatively fire-free period coupled with warmer and wetter climates spanning much of the early Holocene. A brief but marked decrease in water availability around 8500-8000 cal yr BP resulted in the strong decrease of Dodonaea pollen. The vegetation of the mid- to late Holocene is characterised by the increased occurrence of Asteraceae and succulent taxa, suggesting substantially drier conditions. These data give unprecedented insight into the vegetation dynamics across a period of substantial, rapid climate change, and while they confirm the presence of fynbos elements throughout the last 15,600 years, the results highlight significant fluctuations in the vegetation that were triggered by changes in both climate and fire regimes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.