Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Incidental task sequence learning: perceptual rather than conceptual?

In four experiments we investigated whether incidental task sequence learning occurs when no instructional task cues are available (i.e. with univalent stimuli). We manipulated task sequence by presenting three simple binary-choice tasks (colour, form or letter case decisions) in regular repeated or random order. Participants were required to use the same two response keys for each of the tasks. We manipulated response sequence by ordering the stimuli so as to produce either a regular or a random order of left versus right-hand key presses. When sequencing in both, or either, separate stream (i.e. task sequence and/or response sequence) was changed to random, only those participants who had processed both sequences together showed evidence of sequence learning in terms of significant response time disruption (Experiments 1-3). This effect disappeared when the sequences were uncorrelated (Experiment 4). The results indicate that only the correlated integration of task sequence and response sequence produced a reliable incidental learning effect. As this effect depends on the predictable ordering of stimulus categories, it suggests that task sequence learning is perceptual rather than conceptual in nature.

A test of genetic association among male nuptial coloration, female mating preference, and male aggression bias within a polymorphic population of cichlid fish

Both inter- and intrasexual selection have been implicated in the origin and maintenance of species-rich taxa with diverse sexual traits. Simultaneous disruptive selection by female mate choice and male-male competition can, in theory, lead to speciation without geographical isolation if both act on the same male trait. Female mate choice can generate discontinuities in gene flow, while male-male competition can generate negative frequency-dependent selection stabilizing the male trait polymorphism. Speciation may be facilitated when mating preference and/or aggression bias are physically linked to the trait they operate on. We tested for genetic associations among female mating preference, male aggression bias and male coloration in the Lake Victoria cichlid Pundamilia. We crossed females from a phenotypically variable population with males from both extreme ends of the phenotype distribution in the same population (blue or red). Male offspring of a red sire were significantly redder than males of a blue sire, indicating that intra-population variation in male coloration is heritable. We tested mating preferences of female offspring and aggression biases of male offspring using binary choice tests. There was no evidence for associations at the family level between female mating preferences and coloration of sires, but dam identity had a significant effect on female mate preference. Sons of the red sire directed significantly more aggression to red than blue males, whereas sons of the blue sire did not show any bias. There was a positive correlation among individuals between male aggression bias and body coloration, possibly due to pleiotropy or physical linkage, which could facilitate the maintenance of color polymorphism.

Implicit task sequence learning in patients with Parkinson's disease, frontal lesions and amnesia: The critical role of fronto–striatal loops

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of the fronto–striatal system for implicit task sequence learning. We tested performance of patients with compromised functioning of the fronto–striatal loops, that is, patients with Parkinson's disease and patients with lesions in the ventromedial or dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. We also tested amnesic patients with lesions either to the basal forebrain/orbitofrontal cortex or to thalamic/medio-temporal regions. We used a task sequence learning paradigm involving the presentation of a sequence of categorical binary-choice decision tasks. After several blocks of training, the sequence, hidden in the order of tasks, was replaced by a pseudo-random sequence. Learning (i.e., sensitivity to the ordering) was assessed by measuring whether this change disrupted performance. Although all the patients were able to perform the decision tasks quite easily, those with lesions to the fronto–striatal loops (i.e., patients with Parkinson's disease, with lesions in the ventromedial or dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and those amnesic patients with lesions to the basal forebrain/orbitofrontal cortex) did not show any evidence of implicit task sequence learning. In contrast, those amnesic patients with lesions to thalamic/medio-temporal regions showed intact sequence learning. Together, these results indicate that the integrity of the fronto–striatal system is a prerequisite for implicit task sequence learning.

Major and trace element content of the 17 lithostratigraphic units recovered during DSDP Leg 49 (Table 1)

IPOD Leg 49 recovered basalts from 9 holes at 7 sites along 3 transects across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: 63°N (Reykjanes), 45°N and 36°N (FAMOUS area). This has provided further information on the nature of mantle heterogeneity in the North Atlantic by enabling studies to be made of the variation of basalt composition with depth and with time near critical areas (Iceland and the Azores) where deep mantle plumes are thought to exist. Over 150 samples have been analysed for up to 40 major and trace elements and the results used to place constraints on the petrogenesis of the erupted basalts and hence on the geochemical nature of their source regions. It is apparent that few of the recovered basalts have the geochemical characteristics of typical "depleted" midocean ridge basalts (MORB). An unusually wide range of basalt compositions may be erupted at a single site: the range of rare earth patterns within the short section cored at Site 413, for instance, encompasses the total variation of REE patterns previously reported from the FAMOUS area. Nevertheless it is possible to account for most of the compositional variation at a single site by partial melting processes (including dynamic melting) and fractional crystallization. Partial melting mechanisms seem to be the dominant processes relating basalt compositions, particularly at 36°N and 45°N, suggesting that long-lived sub-axial magma chambers may not be a consistent feature of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Comparisons of basalts erupted at the same ridge segment for periods of the order of 35 m.y. (now lying along the same mantle flow line) do show some significant inter-site differences in Rb/Sr, Ce/Yb, 87Sr/86Sr, etc., which cannot be accounted for by fractionation mechanisms and which must reflect heterogeneities in the mantle source. However when hygromagmatophile (HYG) trace element levels and ratios are considered, it is the constancy or consistency of these HYG ratios which is the more remarkable, implying that the mantle source feeding a particular ridge segment was uniform with respect to these elements for periods of the order of 35 m.y. and probably since the opening of the Atlantic. Yet these HYG element ratios at 63°N are very different from those at 45°N and 36°N and significantly different from the values at 22°N and in "MORB". The observed variations are difficult to reconcile with current concepts of mantle plumes and binary mixing models. The mantle is certainly heterogeneous, but there is not simply an "enriched" and a "depleted" source, but rather a range of sources heterogeneous on different scales for different elements - to an extent and volume depending on previous depletion/enrichment events. HYG element ratios offer the best method of defining compositionally different mantle segments since they are little modified by the fractionation processes associated with basalt generation.

Cycling habits and other psychological variables affecting commuting by bicycle in Madrid, Spain

To develop effective cycling policies, decision makers and administrators should know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Because psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of cycling factors and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured by attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits. Statistical differences in the variables are established in relation to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport-leisure, no use). Doing so enables the authors to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle and to make recommendations for cycling policies. Two underlying structures (factors) of the attitudinal variables are identified: direct benefits and long-term benefits. Three other factors are related to variables of difficulty: physical conditions, external facilities, and individual capacities. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on people's decision to cycle to work-place of study is tested by using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid, Spain, the decision to cycle to work-place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for noncommuting trips). Because bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.

Cycling habits and other psychological variables affecting commuting by bicycle in city of Madrid

To develop effective cycling policies, decision makers and administrators should know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Because psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of cycling factors and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured by attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits. Statistical differences in the variables are established in relation to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport–leisure, no use). Doing so enables the authors to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle and to make recommendations for cycling policies. Two underlying structures (factors) of the attitudinal variables are identified: direct benefits and long-term benefits. Three other factors are related to variables of difficulty: physical conditions, external facilities, and individual capacities. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on people’s decision to cycle to work–place of study is tested by using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid, Spain, the decision to cycle to work– place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for noncommuting trips). Because bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.

A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Win-win transport strategies: searching for sinergies

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Analysing three basic decisions of tourists: going away, going abroad and going on tour

This study analyses determinant factors in the taking of three basic decisions on the part of holidaymakers: going on holiday, foreign holidays and multi-destination holidays. We propose various research hypotheses relating to the impact on these decisions of various personal characteristics. The methodology used estimates various Binomial Logit models. The empirical application carried out in Spain on a sample of 3,781 individuals allows us to conclude that personal characteristics related to the chosen destination, personal restrictions and socio-demographic and psychographic characteristics are determinants of these decisions.

Identificación de las distintas sensibilidades a los precios turísticos en la Comunidad Valenciana

El papel del precio en el sector turístico es especialmente complejo debido a la heterogeneidad existente entre los turistas y, por tanto, a las distintas sensibilidades al precio que muestran. En este sentido, el presente trabajo propone la utilización de modelos de elección discreta para identificar las sensibilidades individuales, turista a turista, y, a continuación, utilizar dichas estimaciones como punto de partida para detectar grupos de turistas con una respuesta similar a los precios. La aplicación empírica realizada en el contexto de la Comunidad Valenciana permite detectar tres segmentos: turistas de precio bajo, turistas indiferentes al precio y turistas de precio alto.

Determinantes de la motivación cultural en la elección de destinatarios: el caso español

El presente trabajo analiza los factores determinantes de la motivación cultural de los turistas a la hora de elegir un destino. Para ello se proponen diversas hipótesis de investigación relativas al impacto en dicha motivación cultural de varias características sociodemográficas, psicográficas y de comportamiento turístico. La aplicación empírica realizada en España sobre una muestra de ámbito nacional de 2.127 individuos permite concluir que mayores niveles de estudios, menores tamaños del hogar, mayor interés en conocer lugares nuevos y menor sensibilidad a los precios, conducen a una mayor motivación cultural. Especialmente curioso resulta el efecto curvilíneo obtenido para la variable edad: creciente en origen y decreciente a partir de un punto. Dada la relevancia de las dimensiones analizadas, las implicaciones para la gestión de destinos culturales son inmediatas.

A Be-type star with a black-hole companion

Stellar-mass black holes have all been discovered through X-ray emission, which arises from the accretion of gas from their binary companions (this gas is either stripped from low-mass stars or supplied as winds from massive ones). Binary evolution models also predict the existence of black holes accreting from the equatorial envelope of rapidly spinning Be-type stars1, 2, 3 (stars of the Be type are hot blue irregular variables showing characteristic spectral emission lines of hydrogen). Of the approximately 80 Be X-ray binaries known in the Galaxy, however, only pulsating neutron stars have been found as companions2, 3, 4. A black hole was formally allowed as a solution for the companion to the Be star MWC 656 (ref. 5; also known as HD 215227), although that conclusion was based on a single radial velocity curve of the Be star, a mistaken spectral classification6 and rough estimates of the inclination angle. Here we report observations of an accretion disk line mirroring the orbit of MWC 656. This, together with an improved radial velocity curve of the Be star through fitting sharp Fe ii profiles from the equatorial disk, and a refined Be classification (to that of a B1.5–B2 III star), indicates that a black hole of 3.8 to 6.9 solar masses orbits MWC 656, the candidate counterpart of the γ-ray source AGL J2241+4454 (refs 5, 6). The black hole is X-ray quiescent and fed by a radiatively inefficient accretion flow giving a luminosity less than 1.6 × 10−7 times the Eddington luminosity. This implies that Be binaries with black-hole companions are difficult to detect in conventional X-ray surveys.

A complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources

A theory of value sits at the core of every school of economic thought and directs the allocation of resources to competing uses. Ecological resources complicate the modem neoclassical approach to determining value due to their complex nature, considerable non-market values and the difficulty in assigning property rights. Application of the market model through economic valuation only provides analytical solutions based on virtual markets, and neither the demand nor supply-side techniques of valuation can adequately consider the complex set of biophysical and ecological relations that lead to the provision of ecosystem goods and services. This paper sets out a conceptual framework for a complex systems approach to the value of ecological resources. This approach is based on there being both an intrinsic quality of ecological resources and a subjective evaluation by the consumer. Both elements are necessary for economic value. This conceptual framework points the way towards a theory of value that incorporates both elements, so has implications for principles by which ecological resources can be allocated. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.