912 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off


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In groves of ectomycorrhizal caesalpiniaceous species in the Atlantic coastal forest of Central Africa the dominant tree Microberlinia bisulcata, which is shade-intolerant as a seedling but highly light-responding as a sapling, shows very limited regeneration. M. bisulcata saplings were mapped in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup and found to be located significantly far (>40 m) away from adults, a result confirmed by direct testing in a second 56-ha plot. Sapling growth over 6 years, the distribution of newly emerging seedlings around adults, recruitment of saplings in a large opening and the outward extent of seedlings at the grove edge were also investigated. Two processes appear to have been operating: (1) a very strong and consistent restriction of the very numerous seedlings establishing after masting close to adults, and (2) a strong but highly spatially variable promotion of distant survivors by increased light from the deaths of large trees of species other than M. bisulcata (which itself has very low mortality rate). This leads to an apparent escape-from-adults effect. To maintain saplings in the shade between multiple short periods of release ectomycorrhizal connections to other co-occurring caesalp species may enable a rachet-type mechanism. The recorded sapling dynamics currently contribute an essential part of the long-term cycling of the groves. M. bisulcata is an interesting example of an important group of tropical trees, particularly in Africa, which are both highly light-demanding when young yet capable also of forming very large forest emergents. To more comprehensively explain tropical tree responses, the case is made for adding a new dimension to the trade-off concept of early tree light-response versus adult longevity.

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Aquatic species can experience different selective pressures on morphology in different flow regimes. Species inhabiting lotic regimes often adapt to these conditions by evolving low-drag (i.e., streamlined) morphologies that reduce the likelihood of dislodgment or displacement. However, hydrodynamic factors are not the only selective pressures influencing organismal morphology and shapes well suited to flow conditions may compromise performance in other roles. We investigated the possibility of morphological trade-offs in the turtle Pseudemys concinna. Individuals living in lotic environments have flatter, more streamlined shells than those living in lentic environments; however, this flatter shape may also make the shells less capable of resisting predator-induced loads. We tested the idea that ‘‘lotic’’ shell shapes are weaker than ‘‘lentic’’ shell shapes, concomitantly examining effects of sex. Geometric morphometric data were used to transform an existing finite element shell model into a series of models corresponding to the shapes of individual turtles. Models were assigned identical material properties and loaded under identical conditions, and the stresses produced by a series of eight loads were extracted to describe the strength of the shells. ‘‘Lotic’’ shell shapes produced significantly higher stresses than ‘‘lentic’’ shell shapes, indicating that the former is weaker than the latter. Females had significantly stronger shell shapes than males, although these differences were less consistent than differences between flow regimes. We conclude that, despite the potential for many-to-one mapping of shell shape onto strength, P. concinna experiences a trade-off in shell shape between hydrodynamic and mechanical performance. This trade-off may be evident in many other turtle species or any other aquatic species that also depend on a shell for defense. However, evolution of body size may provide an avenue of escape from this trade-off in some cases, as changes in size can drastically affect mechanical performance while having little effect on hydrodynamic performance.

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The increasing usage of wireless networks creates new challenges for wireless access providers. On the one hand, providers want to satisfy the user demands but on the other hand, they try to reduce the operational costs by decreasing the energy consumption. In this paper, we evaluate the trade-off between energy efficiency and quality of experience for a wireless mesh testbed. The results show that by intelligent service control, resources can be better utilized and energy can be saved by reducing the number of active network components. However, care has to be taken because the channel bandwidth varies in wireless networks. In the second part of the paper, we analyze the trade-off between energy efficiency and quality of experience at the end user. The results reveal that a provider's service control measures do not only reduce the operational costs of the network but also bring a second benefit: they help maximize the battery lifetime of the end-user device.

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Objective. To examine effects of primary care physicians (PCPs) and patients on the association between charges for primary care and specialty care in a point-of-service (POS) health plan. Data Source. Claims from 1996 for 3,308 adult male POS plan members, each of whom was assigned to one of the 50 family practitioner-PCPs with the largest POS plan member-loads. Study Design. A hierarchical multivariate two-part model was fitted using a Gibbs sampler to estimate PCPs' effects on patients' annual charges for two types of services, primary care and specialty care, the associations among PCPs' effects, and within-patient associations between charges for the two services. Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs) were used to adjust for case-mix. Principal Findings. PCPs with higher case-mix adjusted rates of specialist use were less likely to see their patients at least once during the year (estimated correlation: –.40; 95% CI: –.71, –.008) and provided fewer services to patients that they saw (estimated correlation: –.53; 95% CI: –.77, –.21). Ten of 11 PCPs whose case-mix adjusted effects on primary care charges were significantly less than or greater than zero (p < .05) had estimated, case-mix adjusted effects on specialty care charges that were of opposite sign (but not significantly different than zero). After adjustment for ACG and PCP effects, the within-patient, estimated odds ratio for any use of primary care given any use of specialty care was .57 (95% CI: .45, .73). Conclusions. PCPs and patients contributed independently to a trade-off between utilization of primary care and specialty care. The trade-off appeared to partially offset significant differences in the amount of care provided by PCPs. These findings were possible because we employed a hierarchical multivariate model rather than separate univariate models.

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Theory suggests that carotenoid-based signals are used in animal communication because they contain specific information about parasite resistance or immunocompetence. This implies that honesty of carotenoid-based signals is maintained by a trade-off between pigmentation and immune function for carotenoids, assuming that the carotenoids used for coloration are also immunoenhancing. We tested this hypothesis by altering the diets of nestling great tits (Paris major) with supplementary beadlets containing the carotenoids that are naturally ingested with food or beadlets containing the carotenoids that are incorporated into the feathers; a control group received beadlets containing no carotenoids. We simultaneously immune challenged half of the nestlings of each supplementation group, using a two-factorial design. Activatior of the immune system led to reduced color expression. However, only nestlings fed with the naturally ingested carotenoids and not with the carotenoids deposited in the feathers showed an increased cellular immune response. This shows that the carotenoids used for ornamentation do not promote the immune function, which conflicts with the trade-off hypothesis. Our results indicate that honesty of carotenoid-based signals is maintained by an individual's physiological limitation to absorb and/or transport carotenoids and by access to carotenoids, indicating that preferences for carotenoid-based traits in sexual selection or parent-offspring interactions select for competitive individuals, rather than specifically for immune function.

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Passengers’ comfort in terms of acoustic noise levels is a key design driver for train design. The problem is especially relevant for high speed trains, where the aerodynamic induced noise is dominant, but it is also important for medium speed trains where the mechanical sources of noise may have more influence. The numerical interior noise prediction inside the train is a very comp lex problem, involving many different parameters: complex geometries and materials, different noise sources, com- plex interactions among those sources, broad range of frequencies where the phenomenon is important, etc. In this paper, the main findings of this work developed at IDR/UPM (Instituto de Microgravedad “Ignacio Da Riva”, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid) are presented, concentrat ing on the different modelling methodologies used for the different frequency ranges of interest, from FEM-BEM models, hybrid FEM-SEA to pure SEA models. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are summarized. Different modelling techniques have also been evaluated and compared, taking into account the various and specific geometrical configurations typical in this type of structures, and the material properties used in the models. The critical configuration of the train inside a tunnel is studied in order to evaluate the external loads due to noise sources of the train. In this work, a SEA-model composed by periodic characteristic sections of a high spee d train is analysed inside a tunnel.

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Usual long, flexible, ED tethers kept vertical by the gravity gradient might be less efficient for deorbiting S/C in near-polar orbits than conventional (Hall, Ion) electrical thrusters. A trade-off study on this application is here presented for tethers kept horizontal and perpendicular to the orbital plane. A tether thus oriented must be rigid and short for structural reasons, requiring a non-convex cross section and a power supply as in the case of electrical thrusters. Very recent developments on bare-tether collection theory allow predicting the current collected by an arbitrary cross section. For the horizontal tether, structural considerations on length play the role of ohmic effects in vertical tethers, in determining the optimal contribution of tether mass to the overall deorbiting system. For a given deorbiting-mission impulse, tether-system mass is minimal at some optimal length that increases weakly with the impulse. The horizontal-tether system may beat both the vertical tether and the electrical thruster as regards mass requirements for a narrow length range centered at about 100 m, allowing, however, for a broad mission-impulse range.

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Optimal currency area (OCA) theory has been influential in pushing eurozone countries towards structural reforms to make product and labour markets more flexible. The underlying assumption of the OCA prescription for structural reform is that asymmetric shocks are permanent. However, when shocks are temporary it does not follow that more flexibility is the answer. When shocks are the result of business-cycle movements, the way to deal with them is by stabilisation efforts. This paper provides empirical evidence that suggests that the biggest shocks in the eurozone were the result of business-cycle movements. These were relatively well synchronised, except for their amplitude. We argue that efforts to stabilise business cycles should be strengthened relative to the efforts that have been made to impose structural reforms, with consideration given to the implications for the governance of the eurozone.

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A new approach to optimisation is introduced based on a precise probabilistic statement of what is ideally required of an optimisation method. It is convenient to express the formalism in terms of the control of a stationary environment. This leads to an objective function for the controller which unifies the objectives of exploration and exploitation, thereby providing a quantitative principle for managing this trade-off. This is demonstrated using a variant of the multi-armed bandit problem. This approach opens new possibilities for optimisation algorithms, particularly by using neural network or other adaptive methods for the adaptive controller. It also opens possibilities for deepening understanding of existing methods. The realisation of these possibilities requires research into practical approximations of the exact formalism.