Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The adoption of sustainable remediation behaviour in the US and UK: a cross country comparison and determinant analysis.

The sustainable remediation concept, aimed at maximizing the net environmental, social, and economic benefits in contaminated site remediation, is being increasingly recognized by industry, governments, and academia. However, there is limited understanding of actual sustainable behaviour being adopted and the determinants of such sustainable behaviour. The present study identified 27 sustainable practices in remediation. An online questionnaire survey was used to rank and compare them in the US (n=112) and the UK (n=54). The study also rated ten promoting factors, nine barriers, and 17 types of stakeholders' influences. Subsequently, factor analysis and general linear models were used to determine the effects of internal characteristics (i.e. country, organizational characteristics, professional role, personal experience and belief) and external forces (i.e. promoting factors, barriers, and stakeholder influences). It was found that US and UK practitioners adopted many sustainable practices to similar extents. Both US and UK practitioners perceived the most effectively adopted sustainable practices to be reducing the risk to site workers, protecting groundwater and surface water, and reducing the risk to the local community. Comparing the two countries, we found that the US adopted innovative in-situ remediation more effectively; while the UK adopted reuse, recycling, and minimizing material usage more effectively. As for the overall determinants of sustainable remediation, the country of origin was found not to be a significant determinant. Instead, organizational policy was found to be the most important internal characteristic. It had a significant positive effect on reducing distant environmental impact, sustainable resource usage, and reducing remediation cost and time (p<0.01). Customer competitive pressure was found to be the most extensively significant external force. In comparison, perceived stakeholder influence, especially that of primary stakeholders (site owner, regulator, and primary consultant), did not appear to have as extensive a correlation with the adoption of sustainability as one would expect.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

The placebo effect: international patent law and the protection of traditional plant medicine

Une préoccupation essentielle traverse cette thèse: l'indifférence systémique de la Loi internationale sur la propriété intellectuelle a l'égard des savoirs traditionnels autochtones. De manière générale, un écart semble d'ailleurs croissant entre l'importance des accords internationaux sur les questions d'intérêt commercial et ceux de nature sociale. Les savoirs traditionnels autochtones sur les plantes médicinales sont particulièrement désavantagés dans ce système dichotomique puisqu'ils sont non seulement à l'origine d'énormes profits commerciaux mais se trouvent aussi au cœur de multiples croyances propres à ces sociétés. L'Accord sur les aspects des droits de propriété intellectuelle qui touchent au commerce (ADPIC) de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) a cristallisé le souci de la législation internationale à l'égard d'une protection efficace des intérêts commerciaux. Deux années auparavant, la Convention sur la diversité biologique (CDB) était signée, traduisant une préoccupation à l'égard du développement durable, et elle devenait le premier accord international à tenir compte des savoirs traditionnels autochtones. On considère souvent que ces deux accords permettent l'équilibre du développement commercial et durable, requis par l'économie internationale. Après plus ample examen, on a plutôt l'impression que l'idée d'une CDB défendant, avec succès et efficacité, la nécessité du développement durable et des savoirs traditionnels autochtones contre les pressions opposées de l'ADPIC et de l'OMC est, au mieux, simpliste. La thèse explore également la fonction de la Loi sur les brevets dans la création d’industries, notamment pharmaceutique, et la manière dont ces industries influencent la législation nationale et en particulier internationale. De même, elle traite du rôle que jouent les brevets dans l'affaiblissement et la dépossession des peuples autochtones dotés de savoirs traditionnels sur les plantes médicinales, conduisant à une situation ou ces savoirs sont marginalisés ainsi que leurs détenteurs. La thèse aborde les failles institutionnelles du système juridique international qui permet une telle situation et indique l'urgente nécessité d'examiner attentivement les inégalités économiques et sociales au Nord comme au Sud, et non seulement entre eux. Finalement, la thèse suggère que la législation internationale gagnerait à s'inspirer des diverses traditions juridiques présentes à travers le monde et, dans ce cas particulier, peut être les détenteurs des connaissances traditionnelles concernant les plantes médicinales seront mieux servi par le droit des obligations.

Sofia Gubaidulina's violin concerto Offertorium : theology and music in dialogue

L’objectif de ce mémoire est de comprendre comment une certaine vision du monde, basée sur des croyances théologiques, a contribué à la composition du concerto pour violon Offertorium de Sofia Gubaïdulina. C’est par le biais de cette œuvre qu’est explorée l’idée du dialogue musicothéologique, en proposant des façons par lesquelles la pièce musicale en question peut servir de porteuse ou d’interprète d’une pensée théologique. Afin d’appuyer cette idée, la démarche intertextuelle employée par Heidi Epstein est utilisée. Cette méthode permet de faciliter non seulement le travail interdisciplinaire, mais aussi la lecture théologique de l’œuvre musicale. Le premier chapitre explore les sources, les questions et la problématique qui entoure le dialogue musicothéologique. La conclusion tirée est que l’étude d’Offertorium nécessite une approche équilibrée. Nous entendons par cela, une approche qui prend en ligne de compte la réflexion théologique autant que la recherche musicologique tout en respectant les contributions théologiques que l’œuvre musicale peut apporter en soi. Dans le deuxième chapitre, une analyse thématique d’Offertorium a été tentée ainsi qu’une étude du discours théologique et spirituel de la compositrice. Il a été conclu que l’arrière-plan russe orthodoxe de Gubaidulina a beaucoup influencé sa vision du monde et son approche artistique. Le concerto est porteur d’idées et de symboles liturgiques ou théologiques de l’Orthodoxie dans sa structure et dans sa construction thématique. Le troisième chapitre explore les parallèles entre la pensée de Gubaidulina et les écritures de plusieurs théologiens russes orthodoxes du 20e siècle. La conclusion de ce chapitre démontre que, même s’il est improbable que la compositrice connaisse bien ces auteurs, sa compréhension théologique et spirituelle sort du climat religieux de l’Église Orthodoxe. Cette idée explique les complémentarités et les similarités entre son discours, son œuvre et les propos des théologiens discutés. Le quatrième chapitre évalue la validité d’Offertorium comme moyen d’expression théologique ainsi que de générateur de réflexion théologique. La conclusion de la recherche est qu’Offertorium peut bel et bien être un espace théologique. Ce qui veut dire que des idées théologiques peuvent être communiquées par le biais de l’expérience sonore que ce soit par la mélodie ou l’ambiance générale. Également, cela implique que la musique devient un partenaire égal, quoique différent des méthodes de réflexion traditionnelles au sein de la conversation théologique.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Copyright and research: an archivangelist's perspective

Conflation of academic copyright issues with respect to books (whether text books, research monographs or popularisations) and research articles, is rife in the academic publishing industry. A charitable interpretation is that this is because to publishers they are all effectively the same: a product produced for commercial benefit. An uncharitable interpretation is that this is a classic Fear Uncertainty and Doubt approach, in an attempt to delay the inevitable move to Open Access (OA) to research articles. To authors, however, research articles and books are generally very different things. Research articles are produced without the expectation of direct financial return, whereas books generally include some consideration of financial return. Taylor’s “Copyright and research: an academic publisher’s perspective” (SCRIPT-ed 4:2) falls wholesale into this mental trap and in particular his lauding of the position paper of the Association of American Professional and Scholarly Publishers, shows a lack of understanding of the continuing huge loss to scholarship of a lack of OA to research articles. It should be regarded as a categorical imperative for scholars to embrace OA to research articles.

The impact of consumer ethnocentrism and country of origin sub-components for high involvement products on young Chinese consumers' product assessments

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of country of origin (COO) sub-components (i.e. design, assembly and parts), as well as the extent to which consumer ethnocentrism tendencies interact with these COO sub-components for young Chinese consumers with regards to product quality assessments and purchase intentions.

Design/methodology/approach – A 2?×?2?×?2 factorial experimental design was used to examine the effects of the three sub-components of COO with two levels of sourcing location – Home (China) and Foreign (Germany), for two high involvement products (an automobile and a digital camera). Chinese students in China represented the sample of 272 respondents. MANOVA was used to examine the direct effects and interactions of the three COO components, as well as ethnocentrism, measured using the CETSCALE.

Findings – It was found that the three COO sub-components did not influence young Chinese consumers’ evaluation of product quality or purchase intentions. In addition, consumers’ level of ethnocentrism also did not have a direct effect on perceived product quality or purchase intentions. There was only one statistically significant interaction effect between ethnocentrism and country of parts for one of the two products. As such, COO dimensions and young Chinese consumers’ ethnocentrism appears to have limited influence on their assessments of product quality or purchase intentions. This may occur because young Chinese consumers perceive that hybrid products are the norm for high involvement products in China as these products are all these consumers have experienced.

Originality/value – The findings of this research dispute the commonly held belief and evidence that sub-components of COO have an impact on the perceptions of product quality and purchase intentions. Young Chinese consumers may be different to consumers from western countries because they have been extensively exposed to hybrid products. Given the size and growth potential of China, young Chinese are an important, under-researched segment within the Chinese market.

The Queen v Getachew : rethinking DPP v Morgan

In The Queen v Getachew, a recent decision of the High Court of Australia that was soon followed by the Victorian Court of Appeal, the High Court correctly noted that there is a fine line between the mens reas of belief and knowledge which turns upon the degree of conviction with which a belief is held. In particular, the court emphasised that a belief in the existence of a fact or circumstance that contemplates a real possibility or perhaps a higher degree of doubt as to the existence of that fact or circumstance is tantamount to knowledge or awareness that such fact or circumstance may not exist. When applied to the principle enunciated in DPP v Morgan, that type of belief would not be mutually exclusive with the alternative mens reas that require the Crown to prove that the accused was aware that the complainant was not or might not be consenting to the penetration at issue. In Getachew, the High Court merely pointed out that the mens reas of knowledge and belief, though similar in certain respects, are separate and distinct mental states that were incorrectly and inexplicably treated as though they were identical in Morgan and innumerable decisions that have followed and relied upon Morgan since it was decided by the House of Lords in 1976. In the aftermath of Getachew, therefore, the principle that an accused can act with a mental state that is mutually exclusive of the mens rea for rape remains intact. What has changed is that it is knowledge, rather than a mere belief that the complainant is not or might not be consenting, that is mutually exclusive of the requisite mens rea for rape.

The silent witness: art as a mode of representation of voices and visions of how,as a woman, I build borders and bridges in enacting my identit(ies)

Feminist theorists unveil how women negotiate their identities within complex entanglements of social constructs such as race, ethnicity, religious belief and practices, cultural tradition, and values. Feminist artists use subjective experiences that shape representation and performativity in empowering women to have a ‘voice’. In this paper, I focus on ‘breaking silences’ through series of my artworks (as part of my PhD research) that represent self-narratives as subjectivities of life experiences, contingencies, and cultural shifts through migration transitions as new ways of figuration and reflection on such issues. I look through discourses of gender differences, nomadic subjectivity, and new ways of figurations (Braidotti 2011, 10) and the affect theory (Gregg and Seigworth 2010), and the concept of giving ‘voice’ (Berlant 2011). Such discourses frame how I interrogate and represent my gendered identities.

Intuitionistic common knowledge or belief

Starting off from the usual language of modal logic for multi-agent systems dealing with the agents’ knowledge/belief and common knowledge/belief we define so-called epistemic Kripke structures for intu- itionistic (common) knowledge/belief. Then we introduce corresponding deductive systems and show that they are sound and complete with respect to these semantics.

Fragments in philosophy and science,

Philosophy: its relation to life and education.--The idealism of Spinoza.--Recent discussion in materialism.--Professor Watson on reality and time.--The cosmic and the moral.--Psychology past and present.--The postulates of physiological psychology.--The origin of volition in childhood.--Imitation: a chapter in the natural history of consciousness.--The origin of emotional expression.--The perception of external reality.--Feeling, belief, and judgment.--Memory for square size.--The effect of size-contrast upon judgments of position in the retinal field.--An optical illusion.--New questions in mental chronometry.--Types of reaction.--The "type-theory" of reaction.--The psychology of religion.--Shorter philosophical papers.--Shorter literary papers.

Crafting a Third Space: Teacher Beliefs and Practices in Curriculum Reform for Multicultural Education

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Rumors denials as persuasive messages: Effects of personal relevance, source, and message characteristics

Denial is a commonly used strategy to rebut a false rumor. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on the effectiveness of denials in combating rumors. Treating denials as persuasive messages, we conducted 3 laboratory-based simulation studies testing the overall effectiveness of denials in reducing belief and anxiety associated with an e-mail virus rumor. Under the framework of the elaboration likelihood model, we also tested the effects of denial message quality and source credibility, and the moderating effects of personal relevance. Overall, the results provided some support for the effectiveness of denials with strong arguments and an anxiety-alleviating tone in reducing rumor-related belief and anxiety. The effects of denial wording and source credibility were visible for participants who perceived high personal relevance of the topic. Limitations of the current research and future research directions are discussed.