898 resultados para Bayesian shared component model
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In this study in urban Brazil we examine, as a predictor of depressive symptoms, the interaction between a single nucleotide polymorphism in the 2A receptor in the serotonin system (-1438G/A) and cultural consonance in family life, a measure of the degree to which an individual perceives her family as corresponding to a widely shared cultural model of the prototypical family. A community sample of 144 adults was followed over a 2-year-period. Cultural consonance in family life was assessed by linking individuals` perceptions of their own families with a shared cultural model of the family derived from cultural consensus analysis. The -1438G/A polymorphism in the 2A serotonin receptor was genotyped using a standard protocol for DNA extracted from leukocytes. Covariates included age, sex, socioeconomic status, and stressful life events. Cultural consonance in family life was prospectively associated with depressive symptoms. In addition, the interaction between genotype and cultural consonance in family life was significant. For individuals with the A/A variant of the -1438G/A polymorphism of the 2A receptor gene, the effect of cultural consonance in family life on depressive symptoms over a 2-year-period was larger (beta = -0.533, P < 0.01) than those effects for individuals with either the G/A (beta = -0.280, P < 0.10) or G/G (beta = -0.272, P < 0.05) variants. These results are consistent with a process in which genotype moderates the effects of culturally meaningful social experience on depressive symptoms. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 21:91-97, 2009. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Conventional whole-body single frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) of body composition typically uses height as a surrogate measure of conductor length. A new method of BIA analysis for the prediction of body cell mass (BCM) and extracellular water (ECW, as % body weight) not using height has been introduced-the Soft Tissue Analyser (STA(TM), Akern Sri, Florence, Italy)-making it ideal for use in subjects where measurement of height is difficult or impossible. The performance of the new analytical method in predicting BCM and ECW in 139 normal control subjects was assessed by comparison with reference data obtained from a four-component (4-C) model of body composition and with predictions obtained from conventional BIA analysis. Both predicted BCM and ECW were strongly (r = 0.82, SEE = 6.3 kg and 0.89, SEE = 1.3 kg respectively) correlated with the corresponding 4-C model measurements although differing significantly from the lines of identity (P < 0.0001). Fat-free mass, calculated from STA estimates of BCM and ECW, was better predicted (r = 0.91, SEE = 5.6 kg). The significant differences in STA-group mean values for BCM and ECW and wide limits of agreement compared with the reference data indicate that the method cannot be used with confidence for prediction of these body compartments despite the obvious advantage of not requiring an accurate measurement of height. (C) 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.
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Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.
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Dissertação apresentada no Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização Orientador: Professor Doutor José de Freitas Santos
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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química Pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa,Faculdade de Ciências e Tecn
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RESUMO - A infecção por VIH é reconhecida mundialmente como um problema de saúde pública, apesar de todos os esforços e recursos despendidos e dos avanços científicos conseguidos nos últimos anos. Portugal, apesar do registo da diminuição de novos casos de infecção VIH, encontra-se no 4.º lugar (dos países da União Europeia) em termos de incidência de infecção por VIH (dados de 2008). Esta situação, juntamente com a crescente constatação dos custos elevados para o tratamento desta infecção, da variabilidade de práticas e a fragmentação dos cuidados, motivou a reflexão sobre modelos alternativos de organização de cuidados, inspirados em modelos de gestão da doença e idealmente centrados nos cuidados de saúde primários. O presente trabalho teve como objectivos analisar os modelos de organização de cuidados prestados à pessoa com VIH, nos países desenvolvidos, a nível dos cuidados de saúde primários e compreender o nível de adequação dos resultados encontrados, para a realidade portuguesa. Para os alcançar foi realizada uma revisão da literatura e a realização de entrevistas a profissionais de saúde. Nos artigos analisados na revisão da literatura, verificou-se consenso em torno de um modelo baseado em cuidados partilhados, entre os prestadores primários e os diferenciados. Foram ainda referenciados múltiplos factores e condições que terão de ser assegurados para uma possível implementação do modelo. Quanto aos entrevistados verificou-se uma opinião favorável em relação ao modelo de cuidados partilhados, mostrando-se expectantes e despertos para a necessidade de mudança, perspectivando uma maior integração do actual estado de organização dos cuidados para a pessoa com VIH. Estes indícios reflectem a relevância de maior investigação sobre o modelo de cuidados partilhados.
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A presente investigação tem como objetivo principal avaliar a relação entre as Condições de Trabalho, o Comprometimento Organizacional, a Satisfação Social, e a Saúde Mental dos trabalhadores no setor da Bricolage. É sua intenção compreender se as Condições de Trabalho são preditoras de Comprometimento Organizacional e Satisfação com as Relações Sociais, e se o Comprometimento Organizacional explica o Burnout, a Ansiedade e a Depressão destes trabalhadores. Investiga igualmente, através de análises exploratórias, a possível influência de algumas variáveis sociodemográficas e profissionais nos diversos construtos verificados. Participaram neste estudo, num universo de 564 colaboradores de organizações de venda de material de Bricolage da região Norte de Portugal, 190 trabalhadores (33,7%), sendo que 42,6% (n = 81) são do sexo Feminino e 57,4% (n = 109) do sexo Masculino. A metodologia do estudo seguiu uma abordagem quantitativa, com carácter descritivo, exploratório e preditivo, com utilização de inquérito por questionário. A recolha de dados foi feita num único momento através de uma série de instrumentos, entre os quais: Cuestionario de Condiciones de Trabajo (qCT) – Escalas Método e Ambiente; Three-Component Model of Organizational Commitment; The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12); World Health Organization Quality of Life – Bref (WHOQOL-Bref) – Escala das Relações Sociais; Maslach Burnout Inventory – General Survey (MBI-GS); Ficha Demográfico Profissional. As análises psicométricas destes mostraram uma validade e uma fidelidade bastante satisfatória. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo apontam, que as Condições de Trabalho são preditoras, quer do Comprometimento Organizacional, quer da Satisfação com as Relações Sociais. O Comprometimento Organizacional é, preditor significativo de maior Saúde Mental, e igualmente de menor síndrome de Burnout. As análises exploratórias mostraram diferenças significativas em termos de variáveis sociodemográficas (e.g. Idade: Comprometimento Organizacional, Saúde Mental e Burnout; Estado Civil: Condições de Trabalho; Número de Filhos: Comprometimento Organizacional). Quanto às variáveis profissionais, foram encontradas significâncias na Antiguidade (Comprometimento Organizacional e Saúde Mental) e na Função (Comprometimento Organizacional, Condições de Trabalho e Burnout). No final deste trabalho são discutidos e apresentados os principais resultados obtidos e as suas conclusões.
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Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.
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Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.
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This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.
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En el entorno actual, diversas ramas de las ciencias, tienen la necesidad de auxiliarse de la computación de altas prestaciones para la obtención de resultados a relativamente corto plazo. Ello es debido fundamentalmente, al alto volumen de información que necesita ser procesada y también al costo computacional que demandan dichos cálculos. El beneficio al realizar este procesamiento de manera distribuida y paralela, logra acortar los tiempos de espera en la obtención de los resultados y de esta forma posibilita una toma decisiones con mayor anticipación. Para soportar ello, existen fundamentalmente dos modelos de programación ampliamente extendidos: el modelo de paso de mensajes a través de librerías basadas en el estándar MPI, y el de memoria compartida con la utilización de OpenMP. Las aplicaciones híbridas son aquellas que combinan ambos modelos con el fin de aprovechar en cada caso, las potencialidades específicas del paralelismo en cada uno. Lamentablemente, la práctica ha demostrado que la utilización de esta combinación de modelos, no garantiza necesariamente una mejoría en el comportamiento de las aplicaciones. Por lo tanto, un análisis de los factores que influyen en el rendimiento de las mismas, nos beneficiaría a la hora de implementarlas pero también, sería un primer paso con el fin de llegar a predecir su comportamiento. Adicionalmente, supondría una vía para determinar que parámetros de la aplicación modificar con el fin de mejorar su rendimiento. En el trabajo actual nos proponemos definir una metodología para la identificación de factores de rendimiento en aplicaciones híbridas y en congruencia, la identificación de algunos factores que influyen en el rendimiento de las mismas.
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Estudi comparatiu amb benchmark del rendiment en dues plataformes multicore multithreading de diferents modalitats de paral·lelització de multiplicacions de matrius de nombres enters i de nombres en coma flotant mitjançant el model de memòria compartida OpenMP versió 2.5 i OpenMP versió 3.0.
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This paper breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and in other types of public financing schemes, this paper suggests extending institutional and financial strategies such as timeand place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Alongside a for-profit shared equity scheme that would be led by local governments, we also outline a private market shared equity model, one of bootstrapping home buying with purchase options.
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This Article breaks new ground toward contractual and institutional innovation in models of homeownership, equity building, and mortgage enforcement. Inspired by recent developments in the affordable housing sector and other types of public financing schemes, we suggest extending institutional and financial strategies such as time- and place-based division of property rights, conditional subsidies, and credit mediation to alleviate the systemic risks of mortgage foreclosure. Two new solutions offer a broad theoretical basis for such developments in the economic and legal institution of homeownership: a for-profit shared equity scheme led by local governments alongside a private market shared equity model, one of "bootstrapping home buying with purchase options".
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The context where the university admissions exams are performed is presented and the main concerns about this exams are outlined and discussed from a statistical point of view. The paper offers an illustration of the use of random coefficient models in the study of educational data. The association between two individual scores (one internal and the other external to the school) and the effect of the school in the external exam is analized by a regression model with random intercept and fixed slope. A variance component model for the analysis of the grading process is also presented. The paper ends with an outline of the main findings and the presentation of some specific proposals to improve and control the equity of the system. Some pedagogic reflections are also included.