Negative emotional stimuli enhance vestibular processing

Recent studies have shown that vestibular stimulation can influence affective processes. In the present study, we examined whether emotional information can also modulate vestibular perception. Participants performed a vestibular discrimination task on a motion platform while viewing emotional pictures. Six different picture categories were taken from the International Affective Picture System: mutilation, threat, snakes, neutral objects, sports and erotic pictures. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach we were able to show that vestibular discrimination improved when participants viewed emotionally negative pictures (mutilation, threat, snake) when compared to neutral objects. There was no difference in vestibular discrimination while viewing emotionally positive compared to neutral pictures. We conclude that some of the mechanisms involved in the processing of vestibular information are also sensitive to emotional content. Emotional information signals importance and mobilizes the body for action. In case of danger, a successful motor response requires precise vestibular processing. Therefore, negative emotional information improves processing of vestibular information.

Negative emotional stimuli enhance vestibular processing

Recent studies have shown that vestibular stimulation can influence affective processes. In the present study, we examined whether emotional information can also modulate vestibular perception. Participants performed a vestibular discrimination task on a motion platform while viewing emotional pictures. Six different picture categories were taken from the International Affective Picture System: mutilation, threat, snakes, neutral objects, sports and erotic pictures. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach we were able to show that vestibular discrimination improved when participants viewed emotionally negative pictures (mutilation, threat, snake) when compared to neutral objects. There was no difference in vestibular discrimination while viewing emotionally positive compared to neutral pictures. We conclude that some of the mechanisms involved in the processing of vestibular information are also sensitive to emotional content. Emotional information signals importance and mobilizes the body for action. In case of danger, a successful motor response requires precise vestibular processing. Therefore, negative emotional information improves processing of vestibular information.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Negative Emotional Stimuli Enhance Vestibular Processing

Recent studies have shown that vestibular stimulation can influence affective processes. In the present study, we examined whether emotional information can also modulate vestibular perception. Participants performed a vestibular discrimination task on a motion platform while viewing emotional pictures. Six different picture categories were taken from the International Affective Picture System: mutilation, threat, snakes, neutral objects, sports, and erotic pictures. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we were able to show that vestibular discrimination improved when participants viewed emotionally negative pictures (mutilation, threat, snake) when compared to neutral/positive objects. We conclude that some of the mechanisms involved in the processing of vestibular information are also sensitive to emotional content. Emotional information signals importance and mobilizes the body for action. In case of danger, a successful motor response requires precise vestibular processing. Therefore, negative emotional information improves processing of vestibular information.

Source Memory for Mental Imagery: Influences of the Stimuli’s Ease of Imagery.

The present study investigated how ease of imagery influences source monitoring accuracy. Two experiments were conducted in order to examine how ease of imagery influences the probability of source confusions of perceived and imagined completions of natural symmetric shapes. The stimuli consisted of binary pictures of natural objects, namely symmetric pictures of birds, butterflies, insects, and leaves. The ease of imagery (indicating the similarity of the sources) and the discriminability (indicating the similarity of the items) of each stimulus were estimated in a pretest and included as predictors of the memory performance for these stimuli. It was found that confusion of the sources becomes more likely when the imagery process was relatively easy. However, if the different processes of source monitoring-item memory, source memory and guessing biases-are disentangled, both experiments support the assumption that the effect of decreased source memory for easily imagined stimuli is due to decision processes and misinformation at retrieval rather than encoding processes and memory retention. The data were modeled with a Bayesian hierarchical implementation of the one high threshold source monitoring model.

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Two-layer particle filter for multiple target detection and tracking

This paper deals with the detection and tracking of an unknown number of targets using a Bayesian hierarchical model with target labels. To approximate the posterior probability density function, we develop a two-layer particle filter. One deals with track initiation, and the other with track maintenance. In addition, the parallel partition method is proposed to sample the states of the surviving targets.

Differentiated effect of advertising: Joint vs. separate consumption

In a context of intense competition, cooperative advertising between firms is critical. Accordingly, the objective of this article is to analyze the potential differentiated effect of advertising on two basic consumption patterns: individual products (i.e. hotel, restaurant) vs. bundle (i.e. hotel + restaurant). This research adds to the extant literature in that, for the first time, this potential differentiated effect is examined through a hierarchical modelling framework that reflects the way people make their decisions: first, they decide whether to visit or not a region; second, whether to purchase an advertised product in that region; and third, whether to buy products together or separately at the region. The empirical analysis, applied to a sample of 11,288 individuals, shows that the influence of advertising is positive for the decisions to visit and to purchase; however, when it comes to the joint or separate consumption, advertising has a differentiated effect: its impact is much greater on the joint alternative (“hotel + restaurant”) than the separate options (“hotel” and “restaurant”). Also, the variable distance moderates the advertising effect.

Alternative harvest strategies to alleviate predation bottlenecks: a bioeconomic modeling approach to inform adaptive management

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Site specific growth of metal catalyzed silica nanowires for biological and chemical sensing

In this research the integration of nanostructures and micro-scale devices was investigated using silica nanowires to develop a simple yet robust nanomanufacturing technique for improving the detection parameters of chemical and biological sensors. This has been achieved with the use of a dielectric barrier layer, to restrict nanowire growth to site-specific locations which has removed the need for post growth processing, by making it possible to place nanostructures on pre-pattern substrates. Nanowires were synthesized using the Vapor-Liquid-Solid growth method. Process parameters (temperature and time) and manufacturing aspects (structural integrity and biocompatibility) were investigated. Silica nanowires were observed experimentally to determine how their physical and chemical properties could be tuned for integration into existing sensing structures. Growth kinetic experiments performed using gold and palladium catalysts at 1050°C for 60 minutes in an open-tube furnace yielded dense and consistent silica nanowire growth. This consistent growth led to the development of growth model fitting, through use of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Transmission electron microscopy studies revealed the nanowires to be amorphous and X-ray diffraction confirmed the composition to be SiO2 . Silica nanowires were monitored in epithelial breast cancer media using Impedance spectroscopy, to test biocompatibility, due to potential in vivo use as a diagnostic aid. It was found that palladium catalyzed silica nanowires were toxic to breast cancer cells, however, nanowires were inert at 1μg/mL concentrations. Additionally a method for direct nanowire integration was developed that allowed for silica nanowires to be grown directly into interdigitated sensing structures. This technique eliminates the need for physical nanowire transfer thus preserving nanowire structure and performance integrity and further reduces fabrication cost. Successful nanowire integration was physically verified using Scanning electron microscopy and confirmed electrically using Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy of immobilized Prostate Specific Antigens (PSA). The experiments performed above serve as a guideline to addressing the metallurgic challenges in nanoscale integration of materials with varying composition and to understanding the effects of nanomaterials on biological structures that come in contact with the human body.

Settlement Duration and Materiality:Formal Chronological Models for the Development of Barnhouse, a Grooved Ware Settlement in Orkney

Radiocarbon dating and Bayesian chronological modelling, undertaken as part of the investigation by the Times of Their Lives project into the development of Late Neolithic settlement and pottery in Orkney, has provided precise new dating for the Grooved Ware settlement of Barnhouse, excavated in 1985–91. Previous understandings of the site and its pottery are presented. A Bayesian model based on 70 measurements on 62 samples (of which 50 samples are thought to date accurately the deposits from which they were recovered) suggests that the settlement probably began in the later 32nd century cal bc (with Houses 2, 9, 3 and perhaps 5a), possibly as a planned foundation. Structure 8 – a large, monumental structure that differs in character from the houses – was probably built just after the turn of the millennium. Varied house durations and replacements are estimated. House 2 went out of use before the end of the settlement, and Structure 8 was probably the last element to be abandoned, probably during the earlier 29th century cal bc. The Grooved Ware pottery from the site is characterised by small, medium-sized, and large vessels with incised and impressed decoration, including a distinctive, false-relief, wavy-line cordon motif. A considerable degree of consistency is apparent in many aspects of ceramic design and manufacture over the use-life of the settlement, the principal change being the appearance, from c. 3025–2975 cal bc, of large coarse ware vessels with uneven surfaces and thick applied cordons, and of the use of applied dimpled circular pellets. The circumstances of new foundation of settlement in the western part of Mainland are discussed, as well as the maintenance and character of the site. The pottery from the site is among the earliest Grooved Ware so far dated. Its wider connections are noted, as well as the significant implications for our understanding of the timing and circumstances of the emergence of Grooved Ware, and the role of material culture in social strategies.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Resistance to phosphine in Sitophilus oryzae in Australia: A national analysis of trends and frequencies over time and geographical spread

In Australia, along with many other parts of the world, fumigation with phosphine is a vital component in controlling stored grain insect pests. However, resistance is a factor that may limit the continued efficacy of this fumigant. While strong resistance to phosphine has been identified and characterised, very little information is available on the causes of its development and spread. Data obtained from a unique national resistance monitoring and management program were analysed, using Bayesian hurdle modelling, to determine which factors may be responsible. Fumigation in unsealed storages, combined with a high frequency of weak resistance, were found to be the main criteria that led to the development of strong resistance in Sitophilus oryzae. Independent development, rather than gene flow via migration, appears to be primarily responsible for the geographic incidence of strong resistance to phosphine in S. oryzae. This information can now be utilised to direct resources and education into those areas at high risk and to refine phosphine resistance management strategies.

Site Specifc Growth of Metal Catalyzed Silica Nanowires for Biological and Chemical Sensing

In this research the integration of nanostructures and micro-scale devices was investigated using silica nanowires to develop a simple yet robust nanomanufacturing technique for improving the detection parameters of chemical and biological sensors. This has been achieved with the use of a dielectric barrier layer, to restrict nanowire growth to site-specific locations which has removed the need for post growth processing, by making it possible to place nanostructures on pre-pattern substrates. Nanowires were synthesized using the Vapor-Liquid-Solid growth method. Process parameters (temperature and time) and manufacturing aspects (structural integrity and biocompatibility) were investigated. Silica nanowires were observed experimentally to determine how their physical and chemical properties could be tuned for integration into existing sensing structures. Growth kinetic experiments performed using gold and palladium catalysts at 1050 ˚C for 60 minutes in an open-tube furnace yielded dense and consistent silica nanowire growth. This consistent growth led to the development of growth model fitting, through use of the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Transmission electron microscopy studies revealed the nanowires to be amorphous and X-ray diffraction confirmed the composition to be SiO2 . Silica nanowires were monitored in epithelial breast cancer media using Impedance spectroscopy, to test biocompatibility, due to potential in vivo use as a diagnostic aid. It was found that palladium catalyzed silica nanowires were toxic to breast cancer cells, however, nanowires were inert at 1µg/mL concentrations. Additionally a method for direct nanowire integration was developed that allowed for silica nanowires to be grown directly into interdigitated sensing structures. This technique eliminates the need for physical nanowire transfer thus preserving nanowire structure and performance integrity and further reduces fabrication cost. Successful nanowire integration was physically verified using Scanning electron microscopy and confirmed electrically using Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy of immobilized Prostate Specific Antigens (PSA). The experiments performed above serve as a guideline to addressing the metallurgic challenges in nanoscale integration of materials with varying composition and to understanding the effects of nanomaterials on biological structures that come in contact with the human body.