923 resultados para Bayesean Prior


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Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

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An extreme dry-down and muck-removal project was conducted at Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, in 2003-2004, to remove dense vegetation from inshore areas and improve habitat degraded by stabilized water levels. Vegetation was monitored from June 2002 to December 2003, to describe the pre-existing communities in terms of composition and distribution along the environmental gradients. Three study areas (Treatment-Selection Sites) were designed to test the efficacy of different treatments in enhancing inshore habitat, and five other study areas (Whole-Lake Monitoring Sites) were designed to monitor the responses of the emergent littoral vegetation as a whole. Five general community types were identified within the study areas by recording aboveground biomasses and stem densities of each species. These communities were distributed along water and soils gradients, with water depth and bulk density explaining most of the variation. The shallowest depths were dominated by a combination of Eleocharis spp., Luziola fluitans, and Panicum repens; while the deeper areas had communities of Nymphaea odorata and Nuphar luteum; Typha spp.; or Paspalidium geminatum and Hydrilla verticillata. Mineralized soils were common in both the shallow and deep-water communities, while the intermediate depths had high percentages of organic material in the soil. These intermediate depths (occurring just above and just below low pool stage) were dominated by Pontederia cordata, the main species targeted by the habitat enhancement project. This emergent community occurred in nearly monocultural bands around the lake (from roughly 60–120 cm in depth at high pool stage) often having more diverse floating mats along the deep-water edge. The organic barrier these mats create is believed to impede access of sport fish to shallow-water spawning areas, while the overall low diversity of the community is evidence of its competitive nature in stabilized waters. With continued monitoring of these study areas long-term effects of the restoration project can be assessed and predictive models may be created to determine the efficacy and legitimacy of such projects in the future.

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Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.

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Fishes are widely known to aggregate around floating objects, including flotsam and fish aggregating devices (FADs).The numbers and diversity of juvenile fishes that associated with floating objects in the nearshore waters of the eastern tropical Pacific were recording by using FADs as an experimental tool. The effects of fish removal, FAD size, and the presence or absence of a fouling community at the FAD over a period of days, and the presence of prior recruits over a period of hours were evaluated by using a series of experiments. The removal of FAD-associated fish assemblages had a significant effect on the number of the dominant species (Abudefduf troschelii) in the following day’s assemblage compared to FADs where the previous day’s assemblage was undisturbed; there was no experimental effect on combined species totals. Fishes do, however, discriminate among floating objects, forming larger, more species-rich assemblages around large FADs compared to small ones. Fishes also formed larger assemblages around FADs possessing a fouling biota versus FADs without a fouling biota, although this effect was also closely tied to temporal factors. FADs enriched with fish accumulated additional recruits more quickly than FADs that were not enriched with fish and therefore the presence of prior recruits had a strong, positive effect on subsequent recruitment. These results suggest that fish recruitment to floating objects is deliberate rather than haphazard or accidental and they sup-port the hypothesis that flotsam plays a role in the interrelationship between environment and some juvenile fishes. These results are relevant to the use of FADs for fisheries, but emphasize that further research is necessary for applied interests.

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The problem of bias in female petrale sole age and length-at-maturity relationships caused by sampling from spawning aggregations was investigated. Samples were collected prior to aggregation, and histological methods were used to determine maturity status. Mature and immature fish were classified by inspecting oocytes for the presence of yolk in September, when substantial divergence in yolked and unyolked oocyte diameters had been observed. Comparison of macroscopic and microscopic assessment of maturity showed that maturity status cannot be determined accurately by using macroscopic inspection during the summer. Female petrale sole from the central Oregon coast were 50% mature at 33 cm and 5 years of age. Comparison of data from our study with data used in recent petrale sole stock assessments showed that both sampling bias and the use of samples from sea-sons when status cannot be accurately determined have likely caused errors in fitted maturity relationships.

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Research in inclusive design has shown the importance of prior experience for the usability of interactive products. Prior experience, however, is an ill-defined and inconsistently used construct. A number of different definitions and operationalisations of experience exist, but the differing power of these operationalisations to predict the usability of products for older users has rarely been investigated systematically. This study seeks to fill that gap. It is argued that the construct of experience has at least three components. It is proposed that two of these components, exposure and competence, are directly relevant for the current discussion about prior experience in inclusive design and that they can predict to different degrees the usability of a product for older users. In an empirical study, these facets of expertise are each operationalised on three levels of specificity and their impact on usability is assessed. The results show that measures of competence predict usability variables more strongly than measures of exposure and that levels of medium and high specificity are the best predictors. The application of inclusive design principles to a redesigned version of a ticket vending machine-although not resulting in a difference of overall usability-changed the impact of prior experience on usability measures implying an enhanced inclusiveness of the redesign with regard to prior experience. The implications of these findings for the effectiveness of inclusive design for older users are discussed. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.