The Probe, Issue 229 – July/August 2003

• Human/Wildlife Conflicts in Ethiopia -- Jeff Peter sen, Berryman Institute, Utah State University • NADCA 2004 Election • If the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) originated in Asia, why is this rat commonly called a Norway rat? • Book Review: When Raccoons Fall through Your Ceiling: The Handbook for Coexisting with Wildlife by Andrea Dawn Lopez. • Antarctic Scientist Dies in Seal Attack: Research scientist, Kirsty Brown was snorkelling in waters close to the Rothera Research Station as part of her studies when a Leopard seal pulled her under. • Giant Lizards Spreading Through the Gulf Coast: Cape Coral, Florida has become a haven for Nile monitor lizards, and their population, which continues to grow, has possibly reached the thousands in the Gulf Coast city. • Monkeypox Outbreak: An Alert • NADCA 2004 Ballot

Direct Democracy and Institutional Trust: Relationships and Differences across Personality Traits

Direct democracy plays a prominent role in the explanation of institutional trust. To date, however, empirical findings on the effects of direct democracy remain inconclusive. In this article, we argue that this inconclusiveness can be partly ascribed to the diverse effects direct democracy has on individuals. In other words, direct democracy influences institutional trust, but how and to what degree depends on individuals’ personality traits. Running hierarchical analyses of unique survey data from a random sample of eligible Swiss voters, we document three findings: First, we show that the number of ballot measures is not directly associated with institutional trust. Second, we demonstrate that the Big Five personality traits affect the propensity to trust. Third, some of these traits also alter the relationship between direct democracy and institutional trust, suggesting that certain personality types are more likely to be sensitive to popular votes than others and that not everyone is equally likely to respond to political stimuli, even in highly democratic environments.

A comparative state policy analysis of the adoption of birth defects surveillance legislation

Birth defects are the leading cause of infant mortality in the United States and are a major cause of lifetime disability. However, efforts to understand their causes have been hampered by a lack of population-specific data. During 1990–2004, 22 state legislatures responded to this need by proposing birth defects surveillance legislation (BDSL). The contrast between these states and those that did not pass BDSL provides an opportunity to better understand conditions associated with US public health policy diffusion. ^ This study identifies key state-specific determinants that predict: (1) the introduction of birth defects surveillance legislation (BDSL) onto states' formal legislative agenda, and (2) the successful adoption of these laws. Secondary aims were to interpret these findings in a theoretically sound framework and to incorporate evidence from three analytical approaches. ^ The study begins with a comparative case study of Texas and Oregon (states with divergent BDSL outcomes), including a review of historical documentation and content analysis of key informant interviews. After selecting and operationalizing explanatory variables suggested by the case study, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) was applied to publically available data to describe important patterns of variation among 37 states. Results from logistic regression were compared to determine whether the two methods produced consistent findings. ^ Themes emerging from the comparative case study included differing budgetary conditions and the significance of relationships within policy issue networks. However, the QCA and statistical analysis pointed to the importance of political parties and contrasting societal contexts. Notably, state policies that allow greater access to citizen-driven ballot initiatives were consistently associated with lower likelihood of introducing BDSL. ^ Methodologically, these results indicate that a case study approach, while important for eliciting valuable context-specific detail, may fail to detect the influence of overarching, systemic variables, such as party competition. However, QCA and statistical analyses were limited by a lack of existing data to operationalize policy issue networks, and thus may have downplayed the impact of personal interactions. ^ This study contributes to the field of health policy studies in three ways. First, it emphasizes the importance of collegial and consistent relationships among policy issue network members. Second, it calls attention to political party systems in predicting policy outcomes. Finally, a novel approach to interpreting state data in a theoretically significant manner (QCA) has been demonstrated.^

La ciudadanía política de las mujeres y las elecciones de 1951

Este estudio analiza los derechos políticos de las mujeres en la Argentina después de la ley 13010 (1947) que les permitió acceder al voto y se electas. El propósito del artí culo es comprender tres diferentes dimensiones de la ciudadanía política. Primero, se enfoca en un grupo de mujeres que votaron por primera vez en 1951 con el objetivo de comprender sus ideas sobre su nuevo status. Segundo, se analiza el comportamiento electoral de varones y mujeres en las urnas en 1951. Tercero, se explora cómo Eva Perón influenció la percepción de la representación y los límites del poder femenino en las relaciones políticas.

La ciudadanía política de las mujeres y las elecciones de 1951

Este estudio analiza los derechos políticos de las mujeres en la Argentina después de la ley 13010 (1947) que les permitió acceder al voto y se electas. El propósito del artí culo es comprender tres diferentes dimensiones de la ciudadanía política. Primero, se enfoca en un grupo de mujeres que votaron por primera vez en 1951 con el objetivo de comprender sus ideas sobre su nuevo status. Segundo, se analiza el comportamiento electoral de varones y mujeres en las urnas en 1951. Tercero, se explora cómo Eva Perón influenció la percepción de la representación y los límites del poder femenino en las relaciones políticas.

La ciudadanía política de las mujeres y las elecciones de 1951

Este estudio analiza los derechos políticos de las mujeres en la Argentina después de la ley 13010 (1947) que les permitió acceder al voto y se electas. El propósito del artí culo es comprender tres diferentes dimensiones de la ciudadanía política. Primero, se enfoca en un grupo de mujeres que votaron por primera vez en 1951 con el objetivo de comprender sus ideas sobre su nuevo status. Segundo, se analiza el comportamiento electoral de varones y mujeres en las urnas en 1951. Tercero, se explora cómo Eva Perón influenció la percepción de la representación y los límites del poder femenino en las relaciones políticas.

Kenya's 2007 election crisis

On 27 December 2007, the Republic of Kenya held its tenth general election since independence. The ballot-related proceedings went as planned up to and including the vote count, providing grounds for optimism for a largely peaceful transfer of power. However, after the official declaration by the Electoral Commission of Kenya late in the afternoon of 30 December that the presidential election had been won by the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (from Central Province and a Kikuyu), Kenya entered into a period of deep crisis. How might we best understand this great turbulence, which was unprecedented in post-independence Kenya? Perhaps the answer lies in the sudden defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga from Nyanza Province and a Luo, who had been widely expected to win. With the post-election upheaval as the context, and looking at the situation from the standpoint of political history, this paper will offer an analysis of trends in Kenya's politics since 2002.

Detecting false testimonies in reputation systems using self-organizing maps

It has been demonstrated that rating trust and reputation of individual nodes is an effective approach in distributed environments in order to improve security, support decision-making and promote node collaboration. Nevertheless, these systems are vulnerable to deliberate false or unfair testimonies. In one scenario, the attackers collude to give negative feedback on the victim in order to lower or destroy its reputation. This attack is known as bad mouthing attack. In another scenario, a number of entities agree to give positive feedback on an entity (often with adversarial intentions). This attack is known as ballot stuffing. Both attack types can significantly deteriorate the performances of the network. The existing solutions for coping with these attacks are mainly concentrated on prevention techniques. In this work, we propose a solution that detects and isolates the abovementioned attackers, impeding them in this way to further spread their malicious activity. The approach is based on detecting outliers using clustering, in this case self-organizing maps. An important advantage of this approach is that we have no restrictions on training data, and thus there is no need for any data pre-processing. Testing results demonstrate the capability of the approach in detecting both bad mouthing and ballot stuffing attack in various scenarios.

A CAMPANHA ELEITORAL DE GETÚLIO VARGAS NO CINEMA EM 1950

Estudo pioneiro que tem como objetivo verificar qual foi a imagem construída de Getúlio Vargas através do cinema, mais especificamente, por meio do cinejornal, verificando como o resultado dessa imagem construída foi utilizado no período eleitoral de 1950, levando em conta as ações de propaganda política, ideológica e eleitoral. Temos como objeto de pesquisa a presença de Getúlio Vargas nos cinejornais veiculados no período de campanha presidencial de 1950 analisados com base na análise de conteúdo qualitativa. Trabalhamos também metodologicamente com a pesquisa documental e histórica, já que abordamos o governo de Vargas, seu suicídio e posteriormente, o histórico dos presidenciáveis que sucederam-no no poder, por isso foi feito um recolhimento de documentos disponíveis daquela época para endossar o trabalho. Concluímos que apesar da campanha eleitoral, política e ideológica de Vargas ter sido estruturada de forma minuciosa, atingindo o objetivo esperado nas urnas, a oposição intensiva dos partidos e da imprensa resultou em um fim trágico que marcou a história da política brasileira.(AU)

A CAMPANHA ELEITORAL DE GETÚLIO VARGAS NO CINEMA EM 1950

Estudo pioneiro que tem como objetivo verificar qual foi a imagem construída de Getúlio Vargas através do cinema, mais especificamente, por meio do cinejornal, verificando como o resultado dessa imagem construída foi utilizado no período eleitoral de 1950, levando em conta as ações de propaganda política, ideológica e eleitoral. Temos como objeto de pesquisa a presença de Getúlio Vargas nos cinejornais veiculados no período de campanha presidencial de 1950 analisados com base na análise de conteúdo qualitativa. Trabalhamos também metodologicamente com a pesquisa documental e histórica, já que abordamos o governo de Vargas, seu suicídio e posteriormente, o histórico dos presidenciáveis que sucederam-no no poder, por isso foi feito um recolhimento de documentos disponíveis daquela época para endossar o trabalho. Concluímos que apesar da campanha eleitoral, política e ideológica de Vargas ter sido estruturada de forma minuciosa, atingindo o objetivo esperado nas urnas, a oposição intensiva dos partidos e da imprensa resultou em um fim trágico que marcou a história da política brasileira.(AU)

Fracking/Takings

As the use of fracking has spread during the recent oil and gas boom, inevitable conflicts have arisen between industry and its neighbors, particularly as fracking has moved into densely populated urban and suburban areas. Concerned over the impacts of fracking – such as risks to health and safely, diminished property values, air and water pollution, as well as noise, traffic, and other annoyances – many people have demanded a government response. Government regulation of fracking has struggled to catch up, although in recent years many state and local governments have taken steps to reduce the impacts of fracking in their communities. This article focuses on government restrictions in New York and Colorado, two of the key battlegrounds in the fight over fracking. New York recently prohibited fracking across the entire state, after several towns had enacted their own bans. In Colorado, the people have used the ballot initiative process to enact restrictions on fracking directly. The industry has responded not only with public relations spending to improve the fracking’s damaged reputation, but also legal challenges to these efforts to rein in oil and gas development. In addition to suing local governments, often arguing they do not have authority to regulate fracking, industry threatens to bring costly takings claims for compensation due to alleged economic harms. This Article examines the numerous legal and factual issues that should make it difficult for industry to succeed on fracking/takings claims. First, regulation of fracking, even including outright bans, can almost always be defended as necessary to prevent a nuisance or other background principle of law that justifies government regulation. Even if a nuisance defense could be overcome, industry would have difficulty proving that regulation has destroyed all economic value in their property, unless courts take a narrow view of property that would highlight the arbitrary nature of the “denominator problem.” When fracking/takings claims are considered under the default balancing of the Penn Central case, takings are unlikely to be found except in rare outlier cases. Finally, because requiring governments to pay compensation in fracking/takings cases would likely create a windfall for industry, particularly if the oil and gas eventually is extracted in the future, courts should resist the temptation to rule against government restrictions to protect public health, safety, and the environment.

Compromiso político y feminismo en el universo comunista de la Transición

En el proceso de Transición a la democracia, las culturas políticas comunistas ocuparon una posición muy destacada, con diversos horizontes, desde la vía democrática al socialismo del PCE a las propuestas revolucionarias maoístas y trotskistas. Las mujeres que militaron en estos partidos, que también participaron en el movimiento feminista, reformularon las identidades de género de la izquierda con debates teóricos muy intensos y nuevas prácticas políticas y sociales. Aunque no alcanzaron sus objetivos políticos y feministas, ni un reconocimiento en las urnas, contribuyeron de forma decisiva a la consolidación de la democracia y la difusión de discursos y valores igualitarios en España.

Between Apathy and Anger: Challenges to the Union from the 2014 Elections to the European Parliament. EPIN [Working] Paper No. 39, 20 May 2014

This EPIN study brings together contributions from a ​broad selection of member states ​and ​provid​es ​insightful analysis ​into the 2014 elections to the European Parliament on the ground. The report reveals the different factors that impede the development of genuine European elections and the consequences of the ballot in the member states covered by the study​, namely Bulgaria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain and the UK​,​ and at EU level. The report finds that: • The EP Resolution to encourage European parties to nominate candidates for the next Commission President has not really increased public interest in the EU and voter turnout will probably remain low. • Visibility of the European top candidates in most member states has been quite limited. • National manifestos do not coincide – and sometimes event conflict with – the European parties’ manifestos. • Election debates focus on national issues; EU issues are only brought to public debate when they are relevant for domestic politics. • Again, we will see a protest vote against governments and large parties. The EP elections are still perceived as a test ahead of local and national elections, or as a vote of confidence in national governments. • This year the protest vote also concerns the EU. The report predicts a more eurosceptic ballot that might complicate decision-making in the EU, exacerbate the conflict between the national and European levels and increase tensions among member states.

Turkey votes: Part III - President Erdoğan - A foregone conclusion? EPC Commentary, 10 July 2014

On 1 July, after months of speculation, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, announced he would run in the country’s first direct presidential elections on 10 August. Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for over a decade, is viewed as the clear favourite. With current polls suggesting he could take as much as 52% of the vote, an outright victory in the first round is possible. His main rival, Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu, is very much the underdog. Until recently, an international diplomat with no experience in politics, he is the joint candidate of Turkey’s two main opposition parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). Selahattin Demirtaş, the Co-Chairman of the Kurdish Peoples Democratic Party (HDP) is also in the race, but is not expected to make it into double digits. The Kurdish vote however, could prove to be crucial if the ballot goes to a second round on 24 August. With Erdoğan wanting to increase Presidential powers, the stakes are high. With his belief in majoritarian rule, and increasingly authoritarian style of governance there has been an erosion of democracy and civil liberties. Many observers fear this trend may increase.

Gagauzia: growing separatism in Moldova? OSW Commentary No. 129, 10.03.2014

On 2 February, the regional authorities in Gagauzia - an autonomous region of the Republic of Moldova - carried out two simultaneous referenda. In the first, local residents were asked to declare their support for the country’s integration either with the EU or with the Moscow-led Customs Union (CU); the second referendum sought their opinion on the draft law “On the deferred status of the Autonomous Region of Gagauzia”. Under the proposed legislation, if Moldova were to lose its sovereignty (for example, through the unification of Moldova and Romania, or even as some politicians have argued, through Moldova’s further integration with the EU), the autonomous region would automatically become the independent Republic of Gagauzia. As expected, the outcome of the vote has shown overwhelming support for both the CU and for the draft law. According to the figures released by Gagauzia’s Central Electoral Commission, 98.5% of the voters supported Moldova’s integration with the Customs Union, while 98% voted in favour of the ‘deferred independence’ bill. Support for closer integration with the EU was marginal, reaching just over 2%. Despite the one-sided outcome of the referendum, there is no reliable evidence to suggest that the ballot was rigged. It should also be noted that voter turnout was very high, reaching about 70%. Representatives of the Moldovan Central Electoral Commission, however, believe that the figure may have been artificially inflated by excluding many of the voters currently residing abroad from the count.