On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamical aspects of atmospheric data assimilation in the tropics

A faithful depiction of the tropical atmosphere requires three-dimensional sets of observations. Despite the increasing amount of observations presently available, these will hardly ever encompass the entire atmosphere and, in addition, observations have errors. Additional (background) information will always be required to complete the picture. Valuable added information comes from the physical laws governing the flow, usually mediated via a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. These models are, however, never going to be error-free, why a reliable estimate of their errors poses a real challenge since the whole truth will never be within our grasp. The present thesis addresses the question of improving the analysis procedures for NWP in the tropics. Improvements are sought by addressing the following issues: - the efficiency of the internal model adjustment, - the potential of the reliable background-error information, as compared to observations, - the impact of a new, space-borne line-of-sight wind measurements, and - the usefulness of multivariate relationships for data assimilation in the tropics. Most NWP assimilation schemes are effectively univariate near the equator. In this thesis, a multivariate formulation of the variational data assimilation in the tropics has been developed. The proposed background-error model supports the mass-wind coupling based on convectively-coupled equatorial waves. The resulting assimilation model produces balanced analysis increments and hereby increases the efficiency of all types of observations. Idealized adjustment and multivariate analysis experiments highlight the importance of direct wind measurements in the tropics. In particular, the presented results confirm the superiority of wind observations compared to mass data, in spite of the exact multivariate relationships available from the background information. The internal model adjustment is also more efficient for wind observations than for mass data. In accordance with these findings, new satellite wind observations are expected to contribute towards the improvement of NWP and climate modeling in the tropics. Although incomplete, the new wind-field information has the potential to reduce uncertainties in the tropical dynamical fields, if used together with the existing satellite mass-field measurements. The results obtained by applying the new background-error representation to the tropical short-range forecast errors of a state-of-art NWP model suggest that achieving useful tropical multivariate relationships may be feasible within an operational NWP environment.

Interview and translation strategies: coping with multilingual settings and data

Central Eastern Europe, the research area this paper is concerned with, is a region characterized by a high diversity of languages and cultures. It is, at the same time, an area where political, cultural and social conflicts have emerged over time, nowadays especially in border zones, where people of different ethnic, cultural or linguistic background live. In this context, it is important for us researchers to get balanced interview data, and consequently we very often have to conduct interviews in several different languages and within changing cultural contexts. In order to avoid "communication problems" or even conflictual (interview) situations, which might damage the outcome of the research, we are thus challenged to find appropriate communication strategies for any of these situations. This is especially difficult when we are confronted with language or culture-specific terminology or taboo expressions that carry political meaning(s). Once the interview data is collected and it comes to translating and analysing it, we face further challenges and new questions arise. First of all, we have to decide what a good translation strategy would be. Many words and phrases that exist in one language do not have an exact equivalent in another. Therefore we have to find a solution for translating these expressions and concepts in a way that their meanings do not get "lost by translation". In this paper I discuss and provide insights to these challenges by presenting and discussing numerous examples from the region in question. Specifically, I focus on the deconstruction of the meaning of geographical names and politically loaded expressions in order to show the sensitivities of language, the difficulties of research in multilingual settings and with multilingual data as well as the strategies or "ways out" of certain dilemmas.

A Parametric Test of Perfect Ranking in Balanced Ranked Set Sampling

Many techniques based on data which are drawn by Ranked Set Sampling (RSS) scheme assume that the ranking of observations is perfect. Therefore it is essential to develop some methods for testing this assumption. In this article, we propose a parametric location-scale free test for assessing the assumption of perfect ranking. The results of a simulation study in two special cases of normal and exponential distributions indicate that the proposed test performs well in comparison with its leading competitors.

Development of a balanced experimental–computational approach to understanding the mechanics of proximal femur fractures

The majority of people who sustain hip fractures after a fall to the side would not have been identified using current screening techniques such as areal bone mineral density. Identifying them, however, is essential so that appropriate pharmacological or lifestyle interventions can be implemented. A protocol, demonstrated on a single specimen, is introduced, comprising the following components; in vitro biofidelic drop tower testing of a proximal femur; high-speed image analysis through digital image correlation; detailed accounting of the energy present during the drop tower test; organ level finite element simulations of the drop tower test; micro level finite element simulations of critical volumes of interest in the trabecular bone. Fracture in the femoral specimen initiated in the superior part of the neck. Measured fracture load was 3760 N, compared to 4871 N predicted based on the finite element analysis. Digital image correlation showed compressive surface strains as high as 7.1% prior to fracture. Voxel level results were consistent with high-speed video data and helped identify hidden local structural weaknesses. We found using a drop tower test protocol that a femoral neck fracture can be created with a fall velocity and energy representative of a sideways fall from standing. Additionally, we found that the nested explicit finite element method used allowed us to identify local structural weaknesses associated with femur fracture initiation.

Global distributions of Phaeocystis sp. abundance and biomass - Gridded data product (NetCDF) - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The planktonic haptophyte Phaeocystis has been suggested to play a fundamental role in the global biogeochemical cycling of carbon and sulphur, but little is known about its global biomass distribution. We have collected global microscopy data of the genus Phaeocystis and converted abundance data to carbon biomass using species-specific carbon conversion factors. Microscopic counts of single-celled and colonial Phaeocystis were obtained both through the mining of online databases and by accepting direct submissions (both published and unpublished) from Phaeocystis specialists. We recorded abundance data from a total of 1595 depth-resolved stations sampled between 1955-2009. The quality-controlled dataset includes 5057 counts of individual Phaeocystis cells resolved to species level and information regarding life-stages from 3526 samples. 83% of stations were located in the Northern Hemisphere while 17% were located in the Southern Hemisphere. Most data were located in the latitude range of 50-70° N. While the seasonal distribution of Northern Hemisphere data was well-balanced, Southern Hemisphere data was biased towards summer months. Mean species- and form-specific cell diameters were determined from previously published studies. Cell diameters were used to calculate the cellular biovolume of Phaeocystis cells, assuming spherical geometry. Cell biomass was calculated using a carbon conversion factor for Prymnesiophytes (Menden-Deuer and Lessard, 2000). For colonies, the number of cells per colony was derived from the colony volume. Cell numbers were then converted to carbon concentrations. An estimation of colonial mucus carbon was included a posteriori, assuming a mean colony size for each species. Carbon content per cell ranged from 9 pg (single-celled Phaeocystis antarctica) to 29 pg (colonial Phaeocystis globosa). Non-zero Phaeocystis cell biomasses (without mucus carbon) range from 2.9 - 10?5 µg l-1 to 5.4 - 103 µg l-1, with a mean of 45.7 µg l-1 and a median of 3.0 µg l-1. Highest biomasses occur in the Southern Ocean below 70° S (up to 783.9 µg l-1), and in the North Atlantic around 50° N (up to 5.4 - 103 µg l-1).

Global distributions of modern planktic foraminifera abundance and biomass - Gridded data product (NetCDF) - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

Planktic foraminifera are heterotrophic mesozooplankton of global marine abundance. The position of planktic foraminifers in the marine food web is different compared to other protozoans and ranges above the base of heterotrophic consumers. Being secondary producers with an omnivorous diet, which ranges from algae to small metazoans, planktic foraminifers are not limited to a single food source, and are assumed to occur at a balanced abundance displaying the overall marine biological productivity at a regional scale. We have calculated the assemblage carbon biomass from data on standing stocks between the sea surface and 2500 m water depth, based on 754 protein-biomass data of 21 planktic foraminifer species and morphotypes, produced with a newly developed method to analyze the protein biomass of single planktic foraminifer specimens. Samples include symbiont bearing and symbiont barren species, characteristic of surface and deep-water habitats. Conversion factors between individual protein-biomass and assemblage-biomass are calculated for test sizes between 72 and 845 µm (minimum diameter). The calculated assemblage biomass data presented here include 1057 sites and water depth intervals. Although the regional coverage of database is limited to the North Atlantic, Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Caribbean, our data include a wide range of oligotrophic to eutrophic waters covering six orders of magnitude of assemblage biomass. A first order estimate of the global planktic foraminifer biomass from average standing stocks (>125 µm) ranges at 8.5-32.7 Tg C yr-1 (i.e. 0.008-0.033 Gt C yr-1), and might be more than three time as high including the entire fauna including neanic and juvenile individuals adding up to 25-100 Tg C yr-1. However, this is a first estimate of regional planktic-foraminifer assemblage-biomass (PFAB) extrapolated to the global scale, and future estimates based on larger data-sets might considerably deviate from the one presented here. This paper is supported by, and a contribution to the Marine Ecosystem Data project (MAREDAT).

The Pursuit of Balanced Income An Economic Perspective on Wealth

The purpose of this thesis is to determine if households with moderate incomes have the opportunity to acquire pecuniary wealth. In an environment of increasing globalization, labor-eliminating technology, and an overburdened entitlement system, the position of wealth is necessary for households with a penchant for early retirement and particularly for those that will inevitably succumb to involuntary retirement. In these writings, qualitative and quantitative descriptions of wealth are offered; two microeconomic metrics are introduced to identify baseline wealth and to gauge proximity to this value; and strategies are devised to close the gap between these metrics. The construct of the economic intertemporal household budget was used as the basis for this research whereby conventional measures of wealth, i.e. net worth and liquid net worth, have been coupled with historical and empirical household data to define and extrapolate wealth and wealth proximity metrics. The major finding is wealth is a dynamic variable contingent upon consumption level rather than income or saving levels. And because households exercise a greater degree of autonomy over consumption, moderate earners are afforded the same opportunities as high earners. The position of wealth is necessary because it sustains consumption in the event of an unwelcomed retirement and it can assuage reliance on entitlement programs. For the majority of households, wealth is a matter of choice.

Elemental data for composites from DSDP Sites 417A, 417D, and 418A

While the input of river-alkalinity into seawater is relatively well known, the complementary acidity production is poorly understood. Using the major-element budget of seafloor alteration of the upper 500 m of 120-Ma-old oceanic crust at DSDP/ODP Sites 417A, 417D and 418A in the central western Atlantic, we estimate the acidity flux associated with the low-temperature weathering of the upper oceanic crust. The acidity flux is calculated based on major-element fluxes and charge-balance considerations. The relevant chemical fluxes from seawater to the upper crust are 4.1+-0.1; 1.4+-1.4; 2.2+-0.6 and -12+-2 10**11 mol/yr for K, Mg, Na and silicate-Ca, respectively. The associated acidity flux is (3.5+-3)10**11 eq/y. Relative to continental weathering, these fluxes are significant for K and silicate-Ca, but are minor for Na, Mg and acidity. Thus, riverine fluxes of alkalinity are not significantly balanced by acidity fluxes from low-temperature upper ocean crust alteration.

Filtering duplicate items over distributed data streams

In recent years many real time applications need to handle data streams. We consider the distributed environments in which remote data sources keep on collecting data from real world or from other data sources, and continuously push the data to a central stream processor. In these kinds of environments, significant communication is induced by the transmitting of rapid, high-volume and time-varying data streams. At the same time, the computing overhead at the central processor is also incurred. In this paper, we develop a novel filter approach, called DTFilter approach, for evaluating the windowed distinct queries in such a distributed system. DTFilter approach is based on the searching algorithm using a data structure of two height-balanced trees, and it avoids transmitting duplicate items in data streams, thus lots of network resources are saved. In addition, theoretical analysis of the time spent in performing the search, and of the amount of memory needed is provided. Extensive experiments also show that DTFilter approach owns high performance.

Extrinsic and intrinsic factors in the Balanced Scorecard adoption: an empirical study in Portuguese organizations

In this article we aim to analyze the relationship between a set of organizational extrinsic and intrinsic factors and the adoption of the Balanced Scorecard(BSC) by privately-owned Portuguese organizations (large companies and small and médium enterprises).These factos are related to companies age,the diversity of products and services,the nature of the ownership structure,the internationalization,and the organizational size. As a primary means of data collection was carried out a postal survey through a questionnaire sent to 549 privately-owned Portuguese organizations, with na overall responserate of 28.2%. The results indicate that the degree of diversity of the products/services of the organization,the owner- ship of foreign groups,and theo rganizational size are positively associated with the implementation of the BSC.Thus,we conclude that the BSC increases with the degree of diversity of the products/services of the organization,that the Portuguese organizations that use the BSC are mainly owned by foreign groups; and larger organizations are most likely to use this tool.

Green supply chain performance measurement using fuzzy ANP-based balanced scorecard:a collaborative decision-making approach

The purpose of this paper is to delineate a green supply chain (GSC) performance measurement framework using an intra-organisational collaborative decision-making (CDM) approach. A fuzzy analytic network process (ANP)-based green-balanced scorecard (GrBSc) has been used within the CDM approach to assist in arriving at a consistent, accurate and timely data flow across all cross-functional areas of a business. A green causal relationship is established and linked to the fuzzy ANP approach. The causal relationship involves organisational commitment, eco-design, GSC process, social performance and sustainable performance constructs. Sub-constructs and sub-sub-constructs are also identified and linked to the causal relationship to form a network. The fuzzy ANP approach suitably handles the vagueness of the linguistics information of the CDM approach. The CDM approach is implemented in a UK-based carpet-manufacturing firm. The performance measurement approach, in addition to the traditional financial performance and accounting measures, aids in firms decision-making with regard to the overall organisational goals. The implemented approach assists the firm in identifying further requirements of the collaborative data across the supply-cain and information about customers and markets. Overall, the CDM-based GrBSc approach assists managers in deciding if the suppliers performances meet the industry and environment standards with effective human resource. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

Analysis of Housing Partnerships using the Balanced Scorecard framework

Housing Partnerships (HPs) are collaborative arrangements that assist communities in the delivery of affordable housing by combining the strengths of the public and private sectors. They emerged in several states, counties, and cities in the eighties as innovative solutions to the challenges in affordable housing resulting from changing dynamics of delivery and production. ^ My study examines HPs with particular emphasis upon the identification of those factors associated with the successful performance of their mission of affordable housing. I will use the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework in this study. The identification of performance factors facilitates a better understanding of how HPs can be successful in achieving their mission. The identification of performance factors is significant in the context of the current economic environment because HPs can be viewed as innovative institutional mechanisms in the provision of affordable housing. ^ The present study uses a mixed methods research approach, drawing on data from the IRS Form 990 tax returns, a survey of the chief executives of HPs, and other secondary sources. The data analysis is framed according to the four perspectives of BSC: the financial, customer, internal business, and learning and growth. Financially, revenue diversification affects the financial health of HPs and overall performance. Although HPs depend on private and government funding, they also depend on service fees to carry out their mission. From a customer perspective, the HPs mainly serve low and moderate income households, although some serve specific groups such as seniors, homeless, veterans, and victims of domestic violence. From an internal business perspective, HPs’ programs are oriented toward affordable housing needs, undertaking not only traditional activities such as construction, loan provision, etc., but also advocacy and educational programs. From an employee and learning growth perspective, the HPs are small in staff size, but undertake a range of activities with the help of volunteers. Every part of the HP is developed to maximize resources, knowledge, and skills in order to assist communities in the delivery of affordable housing and related needs. Overall, housing partnerships have played a key role in affordable housing despite the housing market downturn since 2006. Their expenses on affordable housing activities increased despite the decrease in their revenues.^

Mastigatory efficiency in denture wears with bilateral balanced occlusion and canine guidance

The maintenance of masticatory function is especially important for patients wearing complete dentures due to their limitations. Thus, the bilateral balanced occlusal concept is used to achieve greater masticatory efficiency. However, a critical review of the literature reveals that there is not sufficient scientific evidence to support bilateral balanced occlusion as the most appropriate occlusal concept in complete dentures. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the masticatory efficiency in complete dentures wearers with bilateral balanced occlusion and canine guidance. A double-blinded controlled crossover clinical trial was conducted. The sample was composed by 24 edentulous patients who wore sets of complete dentures with both occlusal concepts during equal periods of 3 months. Objective data were collected through the masticatory efficiency test performed by the colorimetric method with the beads, in which capsules of a synthetic material enclosing fuchsine-containing granules were used. Subjective data were recorded by patient's ratings of their chewing function. No significant statistical difference was found for masticatory efficiency (p=0.095) between the two occlusal concepts studied. The results suggest that bilateral balanced occlusion does not improve the masticatory efficiency in complete denture wearers.

Mastigatory efficiency in denture wears with bilateral balanced occlusion and canine guidance

The maintenance of masticatory function is especially important for patients wearing complete dentures due to their limitations. Thus, the bilateral balanced occlusal concept is used to achieve greater masticatory efficiency. However, a critical review of the literature reveals that there is not sufficient scientific evidence to support bilateral balanced occlusion as the most appropriate occlusal concept in complete dentures. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the masticatory efficiency in complete dentures wearers with bilateral balanced occlusion and canine guidance. A double-blinded controlled crossover clinical trial was conducted. The sample was composed by 24 edentulous patients who wore sets of complete dentures with both occlusal concepts during equal periods of 3 months. Objective data were collected through the masticatory efficiency test performed by the colorimetric method with the beads, in which capsules of a synthetic material enclosing fuchsine-containing granules were used. Subjective data were recorded by patient's ratings of their chewing function. No significant statistical difference was found for masticatory efficiency (p=0.095) between the two occlusal concepts studied. The results suggest that bilateral balanced occlusion does not improve the masticatory efficiency in complete denture wearers.