942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs


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The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

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The model of Questions Answering (Q&A) for eLearning is based on collaborative learning through questions that are posed by students and their answers to that questions which are given by peers, in contrast with the classical model in which students ask questions to the teacher only. In this proposal we extend the Q&A model including the social presence concept and a quantitative measure of it is proposed; besides it is considered the evolution of the resulting Q&A social network after the inclusion of the social presence and taking into account the feedback on questions posed by students and answered by peers. The social network behaviorwas simulated using a Multi-Agent System to compare the proposed social presence model with the classical and the Q&A models

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In this work a fuzzy linear system is used to solve Leontief input-output model with fuzzy entries. For solving this model, we assume that the consumption matrix from di erent sectors of the economy and demand are known. These assumptions heavily depend on the information obtained from the industries. Hence uncertainties are involved in this information. The aim of this work is to model these uncertainties and to address them by fuzzy entries such as fuzzy numbers and LR-type fuzzy numbers (triangular and trapezoidal). Fuzzy linear system has been developed using fuzzy data and it is solved using Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Numerical examples show the e ciency of this algorithm. The famous example from Prof. Leontief, where he solved the production levels for U.S. economy in 1958, is also further analyzed.

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Novel biomaterials are needed to fill the demand of tailored bone substitutes required by an ever‐expanding array of surgical procedures and techniques. Wood, a natural fiber composite, modified with heat treatment to alter its composition, may provide a novel approach to the further development of hierarchically structured biomaterials. The suitability of wood as a model biomaterial as well as the effects of heat treatment on the osteoconductivity of wood was studied by placing untreated and heat‐treated (at 220 C , 200 degrees and 140 degrees for 2 h) birch implants (size 4 x 7mm) into drill cavities in the distal femur of rabbits. The follow‐up period was 4, 8 and 20 weeks in all in vivo experiments. The flexural properties of wood as well as dimensional changes and hydroxyl apatite formation on the surface of wood (untreated, 140 degrees C and 200 degrees C heat‐treated wood) were tested using 3‐point bending and compression tests and immersion in simulated body fluid. The effect of premeasurement grinding and the effect of heat treatment on the surface roughness and contour of wood were tested with contact stylus and non‐contact profilometry. The effects of heat treatment of wood on its interactions with biological fluids was assessed using two different test media and real human blood in liquid penetration tests. The results of the in vivo experiments showed implanted wood to be well tolerated, with no implants rejected due to foreign body reactions. Heat treatment had significant effects on the biocompatibility of wood, allowing host bone to grow into tight contact with the implant, with occasional bone ingrowth into the channels of the wood implant. The results of the liquid immersion experiments showed hydroxyl apatite formation only in the most extensively heat‐treated wood specimens, which supported the results of the in vivo experiments. Parallel conclusions could be drawn based on the results of the liquid penetration test where human blood had the most favorable interaction with the most extensively heat‐treated wood of the compared materials (untreated, 140 degrees C and 200 degrees C heat‐treated wood). The increasing biocompatibility was inferred to result mainly from changes in the chemical composition of wood induced by the heat treatment, namely the altered arrangement and concentrations of functional chemical groups. However, the influence of microscopic changes in the cell walls, surface roughness and contour cannot be totally excluded. The heat treatment was hypothesized to produce a functional change in the liquid distribution within wood, which could have biological relevance. It was concluded that the highly evolved hierarchical anatomy of wood could yield information for the future development of bulk bone substitutes according to the ideology of bioinspiration. Furthermore, the results of the biomechanical tests established that heat treatment alters various biologically relevant mechanical properties of wood, thus expanding the possibilities of wood as a model material, which could include e.g. scaffold applications, bulk bone applications and serving as a tool for both mechanical testing and for further development of synthetic fiber reinforced composites.

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The Repair of segmental defects in load-bearing long bones is a challenging task because of the diversity of the load affecting the area; axial, bending, shearing and torsional forces all come together to test the stability/integrity of the bone. The natural biomechanical requirements for bone restorative materials include strength to withstand heavy loads, and adaptivity to conform into a biological environment without disturbing or damaging it. Fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) materials have shown promise, as metals and ceramics have been too rigid, and polymers alone are lacking in strength which is needed for restoration. The versatility of the fiber-reinforced composites also allows tailoring of the composite to meet the multitude of bone properties in the skeleton. The attachment and incorporation of a bone substitute to bone has been advanced by different surface modification methods. Most often this is achieved by the creation of surface texture, which allows bone growth, onto the substitute, creating a mechanical interlocking. Another method is to alter the chemical properties of the surface to create bonding with the bone – for example with a hydroxyapatite (HA) or a bioactive glass (BG) coating. A novel fiber-reinforced composite implant material with a porous surface was developed for bone substitution purposes in load-bearing applications. The material’s biomechanical properties were tailored with unidirectional fiber reinforcement to match the strength of cortical bone. To advance bone growth onto the material, an optimal surface porosity was created by a dissolution process, and an addition of bioactive glass to the material was explored. The effects of dissolution and orientation of the fiber reinforcement were also evaluated for bone-bonding purposes. The Biological response to the implant material was evaluated in a cell culture study to assure the safety of the materials combined. To test the material’s properties in a clinical setting, an animal model was used. A critical-size bone defect in a rabbit’s tibia was used to test the material in a load-bearing application, with short- and long-term follow-up, and a histological evaluation of the incorporation to the host bone. The biomechanical results of the study showed that the material is durable and the tailoring of the properties can be reproduced reliably. The Biological response - ex vivo - to the created surface structure favours the attachment and growth of bone cells, with the additional benefit of bioactive glass appearing on the surface. No toxic reactions to possible agents leaching from the material could be detected in the cell culture study when compared to a nontoxic control material. The mechanical interlocking was enhanced - as expected - with the porosity, whereas the reinforcing fibers protruding from the surface of the implant gave additional strength when tested in a bone-bonding model. Animal experiments verified that the material is capable of withstanding load-bearing conditions in prolonged use without breaking of the material or creating stress shielding effects to the host bone. A Histological examination verified the enhanced incorporation to host bone with an abundance of bone growth onto and over the material. This was achieved with minimal tissue reactions to a foreign body. An FRC implant with surface porosity displays potential in the field of reconstructive surgery, especially regarding large bone defects with high demands on strength and shape retention in load-bearing areas or flat bones such as facial / cranial bones. The benefits of modifying the strength of the material and adjusting the surface properties with fiber reinforcement and bone-bonding additives to meet the requirements of different bone qualities are still to be fully discovered.

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Policosanol is a mixture of higher aliphatic alcohols purified from sugar cane wax, with cholesterol-lowering effects demonstrable in experimental models and in patients with type II hypercholesterolemia. The protective effects of policosanol on atherosclerotic lesions experimentally induced by lipofundin in rabbits and rats and spontaneously developed in stumptail monkeys have been described. The present study was conducted to determine whether policosanol administered orally to rabbits with exogenous hypercholesterolemia also protects against the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Male New Zealand rabbits weighing 1.5 to 2 kg were randomly divided into three experimental groups which received 25 or 200 mg/kg policosanol (N = 7) orally for 60 days with acacia gum as vehicle or acacia gum alone (control group, N = 9). All animals received a cholesterol-rich diet (0.5%) during the entire period. Control animals developed marked hypercholesterolemia, macroscopic lesions and arterial intimal thickening. Intima thickness was significantly less (32.5 ± 7 and 25.4 ± 4 µm) in hypercholesterolemic rabbits treated with policosanol than in controls (57.6 ± 9 µm). In most policosanol-treated animals, atherosclerotic lesions were not present, and in others, thickness of fatty streaks had less foam cell layers than in controls. We conclude that policosanol has a protective effect on the atherosclerotic lesions occurring in this experimental model.

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Central Governor Model (CGM) suggests that perturbations in the rate of heat storage (AS) are centrally integrated to regulate exercise intensity in a feed-forward fashion to prevent excessive thermal strain. We directly tested the CGM by manipulating ambient temperature (Tam) at 20-minute intervals from 20°C to 35°C, and returning to 20°C, while cycling at a set rate of perceived exertion (RPE). The synchronicity of power output (PO) with changes in HS and Tam were quantified using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages analysis. PO fluctuated irregularly but was not significantly correlated to changes in thermo physiological status. Repeated measures indicated no changes in lactate accumulation. In conclusion, real time dynamic sensation of Tam and integration of HS does not directly influence voluntary pacing strategies during sub-maximal cycling at a constant RPE while non-significant changes in blood lactate suggest an absence of peripheral fatigue.

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Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

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We study the nonequilibrium behavior of the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 in the presence of a uniform external field using a two-spin-flip dynamics. The deterministic, history-dependent evolution of the system is compared with the one obtained with the standard one-spin-flip dynamics used in previous studies of the model. The change in the dynamics yields a significant suppression of coercivity, but the distribution of avalanches (in number and size) stays remarkably similar, except for the largest ones that are responsible for the jump in the saturation magnetization curve at low disorder in the thermodynamic limit. By performing a finite-size scaling study, we find strong evidence that the change in the dynamics does not modify the universality class of the disorder-induced phase transition.

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A model for the study of hysteresis and avalanches in a first-order phase transition from a single variant phase to a multivariant phase is presented. The model is based on a modification of the random-field Potts model with metastable dynamics by adding a dipolar interaction term truncated at nearest neighbors. We focus our study on hysteresis loop properties, on the three-dimensional microstructure formation, and on avalanche statistics.

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In this chapter, an asymmetric DSGE model is built in order to account for asymmetries in business cycles. One of the most important contributions of this work is the construction of a general utility function which nests loss aversion, risk aversion and habits formation by means of a smooth transition function. The main idea behind this asymmetric utility function is that under recession the agents over-smooth consumption and leisure choices in order to prevent a huge deviation of them from the reference level of the utility; while under boom, the agents simply smooth consumption and leisure, but trying to be as far as possible from the reference level of utility. The simulations of this model by means of Perturbations Method show that it is possible to reproduce asymmetrical business cycles where recession (on shock) are stronger than booms and booms are more long-lasting than recession. One additional and unexpected result is a downward stickiness displayed by real wages. As a consequence of this, there is a more persistent fall in employment in recession than in boom. Thus, the model reproduces not only asymmetrical business cycles but also real stickiness and hysteresis.