Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

National curriculum reform and equipping pre-service teachers to teach about Australia in the Asian Century

Currently a range of national policy settings are reshaping schooling and teacher education in Australia. This paper presents some of the findings from a small qualitative pilot study conducted with a group of final year pre-service teachers studying a secondary social science curriculum method unit in an Australian university. One of the study’s research objectives aimed at identifying how students reflected on their capacity to navigate curriculum change and, more specifically, on teaching about Australia and Asia in the forthcoming implementation of the first national history curriculum. The unit was designed and taught by the researcher on the assumption that beginning social science teachers need to be empowered to deal with the curriculum change they’ll encounter throughout their careers. The pilot study’s methodology was informed by a constructivist approach to grounded theory and its scope was limited to one semester with volunteer students. Of the pre-service teacher reflections on their preparedness to teach, this paper reports on the content, pedagogy and learning they experienced in one segment of the unit with specific reference to the new history curriculum’s ‘Australia in a world history’ approach and the development of Asia literacy. The findings indicate that whilst pre-service teachers valued the opportunity to engage with learning experiences which enhanced their intercultural understanding and extended their pedagogical and content knowledge on campus, the nature of the final practicum in schools was also influential in shaping their preparedness to enter the profession.

An exploratory study of staff nurses' knowledge of delirium in the medical ICU: An Asian perspective

Aim The aim of this study was to establish intensive care unit nurses’ knowledge of delirium within an acute tertiary hospital within South East Asia. Background Delirium is a common, life threatening and often preventable cause of morbidity and mortality among older patients. Undetected and untreated delirium is a catalyst to increased mortality, morbidity, functional decline and results in increased requirement for nursing care, healthcare expense and hospital length of stay. However, despite effective assessment tools to identify delirium in the acute setting, there still remains an inability of ICU nurses’ to accurately identify delirium in the critically ill patient especially that of hypoactive delirium. Method A purposive sample of 53 staff nurses from a 13-bedded medical intensive care unit within an acute tertiary teaching hospital in South East Asia were asked to participate. A 40 item 5-point Likert scale questionnaire was employed to determine the participants’ knowledge of the signs and symptoms; the risk factors and negative outcomes of delirium. Results The overall positively answered mean score was 27 (67.3%) out of a possible 40 questions. Mean scores for knowledge of signs and symptoms, risk factors and negative outcomes were 9.52 (63.5%, n = 15), 11.43 (63.5%, n = 17) and 6.0 (75%, n = 8), respectively. Conclusion Whilst the results of this study are similar to others taken from a western perspective, it appeared that the ICU nurses in this study demonstrated limited knowledge of the signs and symptoms, risk factors and negative outcomes of delirium in the critically patient. The implications for practice of this are important given the outcomes of untreated delirium.

Developing intercultural understanding through Asian-Australian children’s literature.

This PETAA paper discusses how the cross-curriculum priority concerned with developing Asia literacy, namely ‘Asia and Australia’s engagement with Asia’, can be significantly advanced through the study of children’s literature. The discussion proceeds from a brief overview of the historical development of Asia literacy to its current place within the Australian Curriculum. It then considers the potential of literature for assisting students and teachers in realising this priority through the Asian-Australian Children’s Literature and Publishing dataset, a research project on AustLit. Finally, it discusses a small selection of texts – two picture books and a novel – with suggestions or prompts for raising students’ intercultural understanding.

Perceptions of online learning in an Australian university: an international students’ (Asian Region) perspective – enjoyment

Several researchers have reported that cultural and language differences can affect online interactions and communications between students from different cultural backgrounds. Other researchers have asserted that online learning is a tool that can improve teaching and learning skills, but its effectiveness depends on how the tool is used. To delve into these aspects further, this study set out to investigate the kinds of learning difficulties encountered by the international students and how they actually coped with online learning. The modified Online Learning Environment Survey (OLES) instrument was used to collect data from the sample of 109 international students at a university in Brisbane. A smaller group of 35 domestic students was also included for comparison purposes. Contrary to assumptions from previous research, the findings revealed that there were only few differences between the international Asian and Australian students with regards to their perceptions of online learning. Recommendations based on the findings of this research study were made for Australian universities where Asian international students study online. Specifically the recommendations highlighted the importance of upskilling of lecturers’ ability to structure their teaching online and to apply strong theoretical underpinnings when designing learning activities such as discussion forums, and for the university to establish a degree of consistency with regards to how content is located and displayed in a learning management system like Blackboard.

Review: "Planning Asian cities : risks and resilience" edited by Stephen Hamnett and Dean Forbes, Planning, History and Environment Series, London, Routledge, 2011

Since the beginning of the agricultural revolution, cities have always been the cradle of civilisation, innovation and productivity, particularly as a result of the recent change factors affecting their (trans)formation, such as globalisation, the knowledge economy, technological advancements, climate change and so on. While in some parts of the world, cities are rapidly growing, in other parts, cities are shrinking, and their populations are aging. Even under the current pressure of constantly changing global conditions, the role of cities in influencing and partially shaping local, regional, national, supranational and even global level economy, society, environment and governance is undeniable. Global changes, while providing opportunities for cities and their administrations to reform and revisit existing planning and development processes and mechanisms, at the same time, challenge them by dealing with everincreasing risks and establishing resilience. At present, more than half of the world’s population...

Asian international student attrition among Australian universities : are wellness programs the answer?

Education is one of Australia’s largest service-based exports. International students comprise approximately 24% of enrolments at Australian universities (Sawir, Marginson, Deumert, Nyland, & Ramia, 2008); and approximately 80% of these students are from the Asian region (Australian Federal Government, 2012). The financial cost of international student attrition for universities is significant. The Australian Federal Government Department of Education, Science and Training reports the attrition rates for first-year international undergraduate students ranged between 4% and 22.5% across all Australian Universities (2013). Academic, psychological, and sociocultural adjustments to a new environment can be challenging for international students. This process manifests from various stressors such as communication difficulties, adjustment to a new teaching style, new cultural norms and pressure on academic performance. These stressors result in an often overwhelming attempt to integrate and function effectively, and can consequently affect a student’s ability to meet academic requirements. The relationship between a student’s ability to successfully complete a higher education program is consistently related to a range of academic and non-academic factors. The role of specific Australian higher education institutions is vital in facilitating the continued education of Asian International students. Initiatives targeting an enhancement of modifiable lifestyle factors may have the potential to enhance a student’s ability to effectively and successfully transition into a lifestyle that facilitates their ability to adjust to the requirements of Australian universities. One possibility is the prospect of providing wellness programming, coaching and education targeting lifestyle behaviours for acculturation.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Convergence in the ownership and governance of East Asian firms

In the past decade, policymakers in over 70 markets have introduced corporate governance codes or best practice guidelines. In East Asia, they have been introduced in Hong Kong in 1999 and 2006, Indonesia in 2000 and 2007, Malaysia in 2000 and 2007, the Philippines in 2002, Singapore iu 2001 and 2005, South Korea in 2003, Taiwan iu 2002 and Thailand iu 2006. The common focus of these codes is to encourage but not force companies to improve their corporate governance practices to a specified target level, e.g., board independence of 30%. Another commonality is that the guidelines apply to all listed companies regardless of their ownership structure or other characteristics.

The burden of cancer in member countries of the association of southeast asian nations (ASEAN)

This paper presents the most recent data on cancer rates and the burden of cancer in the ASEAN region. Epidemiological data were sourced from GLOBOCAN 2008 and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) lost were estimated using the standard methodology developed within the World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease study. Overall, it was estimated there were over 700,000 new cases of cancer and 500,000 cancer deaths in ASEAN in the year 2008, leading to approximately 7.5 million DALYs lost in one year. The most commonly diagnosed cancers were lung (98,143), breast (86,842) and liver cancers (74,777). The most common causes of cancer death were lung cancer (85,772), liver cancer (69,115) and colorectal cancer (44,280). The burden of cancer in terms of DALYs lost was highest in Laos, Viet Nam and Myanmar and lowest in Brunei, Singapore and the Philippines. Significant differences in the patterns of cancer from country to country were observed. Another key finding was the major impact played by population age distribution on cancer incidence and mortality. Cancer rates in ASEAN are expected to increase with ageing of populations and changes in lifestyles associated with economic development. Therefore, ASEAN member countries are strongly encouraged to put in place cancer-control health carepolicies, focussed on strengthening the health systems to cope with projected increases in cancer prevention, treatment and management needs.

Assessing acculturation over time: A four-year prospective study of Asian American young adults

Acculturation is commonly defined as a dynamic and multidimensional process in which individuals and groups change over time when coming into contact with another culture. Despite the emphasis on acculturation as a process of change over time, few researchers have directly assessed this hypothesis. The current study first identifies and then examines "stable" and "dynamic" dimensions of acculturation within a 4-year prospective study of 433 first- and second-generation Chinese- and Korean-American college students. Separate growth model analyses revealed significant linear change for first-generation students toward greater U.S. acculturation. In comparison, tests of linear and quadratic change for second-generation students were not significant. When stratifying by gender, acculturation increased for women but there was no significant change in acculturation for men. While all students reported increases in alcohol consumption over the study period, changes in acculturation predicted changes in alcohol consumption only for women. Chinese men showed greater increases in alcohol consumption than Korean men but there was no effect for ethnicity among women. There was significant individual variability in the models, which underscores the importance of examining change prospectively through within and between person analyses. The findings highlight the importance of examining acculturation changes over time for different migrant groups with implications for further development of acculturation measures, research methodologies, and health interventions. More prospective research designs of acculturation are needed to examine changes in health behavior and overall adaptation across migrant groups at varying stages of development.

Introduction: Mapping the Contours of East Asian Commercial Law for the Asian Century

The centre of economic gravity in the new century is shifting to the East. Since 200 1, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Asia's contribution to world economic growth has matched that of the United States and Europe combined, and, since 2006, has even exceeded it (IMF, 20 I I; Neumann and Arora, 20 II ). This surge is easy to explain: China has emerged as a global super-power; Japan remains the third-largest world economy, despite only recently emerging from over twenty years of economic stagnation (The Age, 2013); South Korea and the ' tiger ' economies of Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore have achieved high-level economic development through capital investment and technological innovation; and Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia have supplied riches in labour and resources to the regional economy (Macintyre and Naughton, 2005, p. 78). A growing middle class is lifting consumption. ‘Billions of Asians,' writes Mahbubani (2008, p. 3), 'are marching to modernity.’ This book examines scholarly interpretations for the role commercial law has played in East Asia's economic rise. At first blush, this might seem a daunting task. After all, as some theorists have argued, the East Asian experience is largely neglected in writings on Jaw generally and commercial law more broadly (Wolff, 20 12). This is because law, as a discipline, was largely forged in the prior European and American centuries; these 'Anglo-American moorings' ill-serve legal analysis in the new Asian Century (Cossman, 1997, p. 539).

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Estimating daily and diurnal variations of illicit drug use in Hong Kong: A pilot study of using wastewater analysis in an Asian metropolitan city

The measurement of illicit drug metabolites in raw wastewater is increasingly being adopted as an approach to objectively monitor population-level drug use, and is an effective complement to traditional epidemiological methods. As such, it has been widely applied in western countries. In this study, we utilised this approach to assess drug use patterns over nine days during April 2011 in Hong Kong. Raw wastewater samples were collected from the largest wastewater treatment plant serving a community of approximately 3.5 million people and analysed for excreted drug residues including cocaine, ketamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and key metabolites using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The overall drug use pattern determined by wastewater analysis was consistent with that have seen amongst people coming into contact with services in relation to substance use; among our target drugs, ketamine (estimated consumption: 1400–1600 mg/day/1000 people) was the predominant drug followed by methamphetamine (180–200 mg/day/1000 people), cocaine (160–180 mg/day/1000 people) and MDMA (not detected). The levels of these drugs were relatively steady throughout the monitoring period. Analysing samples at higher temporal resolution provided data on diurnal variations of drug residue loads. Elevated ratios of cocaine to benzoylecgonine were identified unexpectedly in three samples during the evening and night, providing evidence for potential dumping events of cocaine. This study provides the first application of wastewater analysis to quantitatively evaluate daily drug use in an Asian metropolitan community. Our data reinforces the benefit of wastewater monitoring to health and law enforcement authorities for strategic planning and evaluation of drug intervention strategies.