An empirical model comparison for valuing crack spread options

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of crack spread options. Particular emphasis is placed on the question of whether univariate modeling of the crack spread or explicit modeling of the two underlyings is preferable. Therefore, we contrast a bivariate GARCH volatility model for cointegrated underlyings with the alternative of modeling the crack spread directly. Conducting an empirical analysis of crude oil/heating oil and crude oil/gasoline crack spread options traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the more simplistic univariate approach is found to be superior with respect to option pricing performance.

Conditional cash transfers, schooling and child labor : micro-simulating bolsa escola

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on microeconometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

Strategic options development and analysis: the case of the brazilian railways

Judging by their success in Europe, Asia and North America, passenger and cargo railways are appreciated as the key to infrastructural development in Brazil. The issues are complex and steeped in uncertainty, as well as political and economic agendas, and a wide array of intersecting issues such as business and unionized interests, agricultural and industrial geographical spreads, as well as the emergence of alternative power sources. Not only are the issues systemic, but railway development itself always comes as a physical network structure. The situation under consideration, in other words, is systemic from both the soft and hard systems point of view, thus promising a rich context for systems studies. As an initial attempt in understanding the situation at hand, the research reported here applied the problem structuring approach known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) in order to map and analyze issues facing the Brazilian railways. Strategic options for the future development of the railways were identified and analyzed, and ways forward for future research are proposed. In addition, the report serves as an initial knowledge base that can guide future systemic planning studies in the industry.

Study of alternative schemes for the parameterization step of the continuation power flow method based on physical parameters, part I: Mathematical modeling

The conventional power flow method is considered to be inadequate to obtain the maximum loading point because of the singularity of Jacobian matrix. Continuation methods are efficient tools for solving this kind of problem since different parameterization schemes can be used to avoid such ill-conditioning problems. This paper presents the details of new schemes for the parameterization step of the continuation power flow method. The new parameterization options are based on physical parameters, namely, the total power losses (real and reactive), the power at the slack bus (real or reactive), the reactive power at generation buses, and transmission line power losses (real and reactive). The simulation results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57, and 118 buses) are presented and discussed in the companion paper. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional method are not only preserved but also improved.

Study of alternative schemes for the parameterization step of the continuation power flow method based on physical parameters, part II: Performance evaluation

New parameterization schemes have been proposed by the authors in Part I of this paper. In this part these new options for the parameterization of power flow equations are tested, namely, the total power losses (real and reactive), the power at the slack bus (real or reactive), the reactive power at generation buses, and the transmission line power losses (real and reactive). These different parameterization schemes can be used to obtain the maximum loading point without ill-conditioning problems, once the singularity of Jacobian matrix is avoided. The results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57, and 118 buses) show that the characteristics of the conventional method are not only preserved but also improved. In addition, it is shown that the proposed method and the conventional one can be switched during the tracing of PV curves to determine, with few iterations, all points of the PV curve. Several tests were also carried out to compare the performance of the proposed parameterization schemes for the continuation power flow method with the use of both the secant and tangent predictors.

Product development process: Using real options for assessments and to support the decision-making at decision gates

Enterprises need continuous product development activities to remain competitive in the marketplace. Their product development process (PDP) must manage stakeholders' needs - technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects, customer requirements, Corporate strategy, etc. -, being a multidisciplinary and strategic issue. An approach to use real option to support the decision-making process at PDP phases in taken. The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional net present value (NPV) approach. It is based on the same principals of financial options: the right to buy or sell financial values (mostly stocks) at a predetermined price, with no obligation to do so. In PDP, a multi-period approach that takes into account the flexibility of, for instance, being able to postpone prototyping and design decisions, waiting for more information about technologies, customer acceptance, funding, etc. In the present article, the state of the art of real options theory is prospected and a model to use the real options in PDP is proposed, so that financial aspects can be properly considered at each project phase of the product development. Conclusion is that such model can provide more robustness to the decisions processes within PDP.

Candida species: Current epidemiology, pathogenicity, biofilm formation, natural antifungal products and new therapeutic options

The incidence of fungal infections has increased significantly, so contributing to morbidity and mortality. This is caused by an increase in antimicrobial resistance and the restricted number of antifungal drugs, which retain many side effects. Candida species are major human fungal pathogens that cause both mucosal and deep tissue infections. Recent evidence suggests that the majority of infections produced by this pathogen are associated with biofilm growth. Biofilms are biological communities with a high degree of organization, in which micro-organisms form structured, coordinated and functional communities. These biological communities are embedded in a self-created extracellular matrix. Biofilm production is also associated with a high level of antimicrobial resistance of the associated organisms. The ability of Candida species to form drugresistant biofilms is an important factor in their contribution to human disease. The study of plants as an alternative to other forms of drug discovery has attracted great attention because, according to the World Health Organization, these would be the best sources for obtaining a wide variety of drugs and could benefit a large population. Furthermore, silver nanoparticles, antibodies and photodynamic inactivation have also been used with good results. This article presents a brief review of the literature regarding the epidemiology of Candida species, as well as their pathogenicity and ability to form biofilms, the antifungal activity of natural products and other therapeutic options. © 2013 SGM.

[Prophylaxis and therapy of postdural puncture headache--a critical evaluation of treatment options]

Since the first description of spinal and epidural anaesthesia, postdural puncture headache (PDPH) is a well known complication. Its prophylaxis and treatment has been studied and discussed for more than 100 years, but the evidence is still limited. Due to relatively low prevalence of PDPH, prospective RCTs are often missing, and the frequently self-limiting character of PDPH impedes an adequate interpretation of results from studies without a control group. Taking side effects and complications into account, a prophylactic treatment of PDPH cannot be recommended. In case of PDPH, non-opioid analgesics are the first choice treatment. The epidural blood patch remains the mainstay of severe PDPH therapy. Noninvasive therapies like theophylline, sumatriptan and ACTH can be an alternative. However, an evidence-based recommendation is lacking. The development of standard operating procedures for accidental dural punctures and PDPH is recommended.

[Surgical treatment options in end-stage heart failure]

Despite significant improvements in pharmacological therapy heart failure is still one of the leading causes for death in the Western World. The gold standard treatment of end-stage heart failure remains cardiac transplantation, but there is a great excess of eligible candidates compared with the low number of suitable donor organs. The variety of surgical organ preserving treatment strategies has significantly increased during the last 20 years, intenting either to delay or even to prevent the need for cardiac transplantation. An individually tailored surgical concept should be considered as an alternative in any heart failure patient who has reached the limits of pharmacologic therapy. This article gives an overview about current and potential future therapeutic options in end-stage heart failure.

A test of the Bolton-Scheinkman-Xiong hypothesis of how speculation affects the vesting time of options granted to directors

This paper investigates empirically the Bolton, Scheinkman, and Xiong (2006) hypothesis, according to which initial shareholders may provide incentives to managers to take actions that stimulate speculative bubbles. We test this hypothesis with data on up to 8,544 directors and up to 1,677 companies between 2004-2008. Using vesting time as a measure of the short-term performance weighting in CEO compensation and various alternative measures of the extent of speculation, the findings support the hypothesis: vesting time decreases with more intensive speculation. The results prove robust in various empirical model specifications.

Use of Complementary and Alternative Medicine in Children with Cancer: A Study at a Swiss University Hospital

Background Though complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) are frequently used by children and adolescents with cancer, there is little information on how and why they use it. This study examined prevalence and methods of CAM, the therapists who applied it, reasons for and against using CAM and its perceived effectiveness. Parent-perceived communication was also evaluated. Parents were asked if medical staff provided information on CAM to patients, if parents reported use of CAM to physicians, and what attitude they thought physicians had toward CAM. Study Design All childhood cancer patients treated at the University Children’s Hospital Bern between 2002–2011 were retrospectively surveyed about their use of CAM. Results Data was collected from 133 patients (response rate: 52%). Of those, 53% had used CAM (mostly classical homeopathy) and 25% of patients received information about CAM from medical staff. Those diagnosed more recently were more likely to be informed about CAM options. The most frequent reason for choosing CAM was that parents thought it wouldimprove the patient’s general condition. The most frequent reason for not using CAM was lack of information. Of those who used CAM, 87% perceived positive effects. Conclusions Since many pediatric oncology patients use CAM, patients’ needs should be addressed by open communication between families, treating oncologists and CAM therapists, which will allow parents to make informed and safe choices about using CAM.

Lordoplasty: midterm outcome of an alternative augmentation technique for vertebral fractures.

OBJECTIVE Vertebroplasty and balloon kyphoplasty are effective treatment options for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures but are limited in correction of kyphotic deformity. Lordoplasty has been reported as an alternative, cost-effective, minimally invasive, percutaneous cement augmentation technique with good restoration of vertebral body height and alignment. The authors report on its clinical and radiological midterm results. METHODS A retrospective review was conducted of patients treated with lordoplasty from 2002 to 2014. Inclusion criteria were clinical and radiological follow-up evaluations longer than 24 months. Radiographs were accessed regarding initial correction and progressive loss of reduction. Complications and reoperations were recorded. Actual pain level, pain relief immediately after surgery, autonomy, and subjective impression of improvement of posture were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS Sixty-five patients (46 women, 19 men, age range 38.9-86.2 years old) were treated with lordoplasty for 69 vertebral compression and insufficiency fractures. A significant correction of the vertebral kyphotic angle (mean 13°) and segmental kyphotic angle (mean 11°) over a mean follow-up of 33 months (range 24-108 months) was achieved (p < 0.001). On average, pain was relieved to 90% of the initial pain level. In 24% of the 65 patients a second spinal intervention was necessary: 16 distant (24.6%) and 7 adjacent (10.8%) new osteoporotic fractures, 4 instrumented stabilizations (6.2%), 1 new adjacent traumatic fracture (1.5%), and 1 distant microsurgical decompression (1.5%). Cement leakage occurred in 10.4% but was only symptomatic in 1 case. CONCLUSIONS Lordoplasty appeared safe and effective in midterm pain alleviation and restoration of kyphotic deformity in osteoporotic compression and insufficiency fractures. The outcomes of lordoplasty are consistent with other augmentation techniques.

Improving the capacity of software acquisition management: An Alternative methodology

The acquisition of the information system technologies using the services of an external supplier could be the the best options to reduce the implementation and maintenance cost of software solutions, and allows a company to improve the efficient use of its resources. The focus of this paper is to outline a methodology structure for the software acquisition management. The methodology proposed in this paper is the result of the study and the convergence of the weakness and strengths of some models (CMMI, SA-CMM, ISO/IEC TR 15504, COBIT, and ITIL) that include the software acquisition process.

Empirical analysis of traffic volume for the application of the options theory to highway concessions

*************************************************************************************** EL WCTR es un Congreso de reconocido prestigio internacional en el ámbito de la investigación del transporte que hasta el 2010 publicaba sus libros de abstracts con ISBN. Por ello consideramos que debería seguir teníendose en cuenta para los indicadores de calidad ******************************************************************************************* Investment projects in the field of transportation infrastructures have a high degree of uncertainty and require an important amount of resources. In highway concessions in particular, the calculation of the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project by means of the discount of cash flows, may lead to erroneous results when the project incorporates certain flexibility. In these cases, the theory of real options is an alternative tool for the valuation of concessions. When the variable that generates uncertainty (in our case, the traffic) follows a random walk (or Geometric Brownian Motion), we can calculate the value of the options embedded in the contract starting directly from the process followed by that variable. This procedure notably simplifies the calculation method. In order to test the hypothesis of the evolution of traffic as a Geometric Brownian Motion, we have used the available series of traffic in Spanish highways, and we have applied the Augmented Dickey-Fuller approach, which is the most widely used test for this kind of study. The main result of the analysis is that we cannot reject the hypothesis that traffic follows a Geometric Brownian Motion in the majority of both toll highways and free highways in Spain.

The Exploration and Development of Alternative Management Strategies for Mining and Recreational Activities Atop Mount Antero and Mount White; Chaffee County, Colorado

The Mount Antero/White area is a popular prospecting area. Recent expansions in the recreation economy is drawing more visitors to the area. Consequently, visitors may be placing unsustainable pressures on the landscape. In order to help rectify this, the legal, ecological, geologic, aesthetic, recreational, historic, social, and economic character of the Antero/White area has been identified. Four feasible management alternatives have also been recognized. They are a) take no new management actions, b) prohibit motorized activities in the area, c) develop a mineralogical park, and d) a combination of options b and c. Option C has been defended, as it best balances the desires of area users with the underlying ecological and geological character of the area.