Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

Spin Polarization and Normal Reflection at Nanoscale Point Contacts

This thesis presents point-contact measurements between superconductors (Nb, Ta, Sn,Al, Zn) and ferromagnets (Co, Fe, Ni) as well as non-magnetic metals (Ag, Au, Cu, Pt).The point contacts were fabricated using the shear method. The differential resistanceof the contacts was measured either in liquid He at 4.2 K or in vacuum in a dilutionrefrigerator at varying temperature down to 0.1 K. The contact properties were investigatedas function of size and temperature. The measured Andreev-reflection spectrawere analysed in the framework of the BTK model – a three parameter model that describescurrent transport across a superconductor - normal conductor interface. Theoriginal BTK model was modified to include the effects of spin polarization or finitelifetime of the Cooper pairs. Our polarization values for the ferromagnets at 4.2 K agree with the literature data, but the analysis was ambiguous because the experimental spectra both with ferromagnets and non-magnets could be described equally well either with spin polarization or finite lifetime effects in the BTK model. With the polarization model the Z parametervaries from almost 0 to 0.8 while the lifetime model produces Z values close to 0.5. Measurements at lower temperatures partly lift this ambiguity because the magnitude of thermal broadening is small enough to separate lifetime broadening from the polarization. The reduced magnitude of the superconducting anomalies for Zn-Fe contacts required an additional modification of the BTK model which was implemented as a scaling factor. Adding this parameter led to reduced polarization values. However, reliable data is difficult to obtain because different parameter sets produce almost identical spectra.

In silico analysis identifies a C3HC4-RING finger domain of a putative E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase located at the C-terminus of a polyglutamine-containing protein

Almost identical polyglutamine-containing proteins with unknown structures have been found in human, mouse and rat genomes (GenBank AJ277365, AF525300, AY879229). We infer that an identical new gene (RING) finger domain of real interest is located in each C-terminal segment. A three-dimensional (3-D) model was generated by remote homology modeling and the functional implications are discussed. The model consists of 65 residues from terminal position 707 to 772 of the human protein with a total length of 796 residues. The 3-D model predicts a ubiquitin-protein ligase (E3) as a binding site for ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (E2). Both enzymes are part of the ubiquitin pathway to label unwanted proteins for subsequent enzymatic degradation. The molecular contact specificities are suggested for both the substrate recognition and the residues at the possible E2-binding surface. The predicted structure, of a ubiquitin-protein ligase (E3, enzyme class number 6.3.2.19, CATH code 3.30.40.10.4) may contribute to explain the process of ubiquitination. The 3-D model supports the idea of a C3HC4-RING finger with a partially new pattern. The putative E2-binding site is formed by a shallow hydrophobic groove on the surface adjacent to the helix and one zinc finger (L722, C739, P740, P741, R744). Solvent-exposed hydrophobic amino acids lie around both zinc fingers (I717, L722, F738, or P765, L766, V767, V733, P734). The 3-D structure was deposited in the protein databank theoretical model repository (2B9G, RCSB Protein Data Bank, NJ).

The functional fit between collaborative software and work systems:Qualification of work system needs to software functionality

The study develops an approach that tries to validate software functionality to work systems needs in SMEs. The formulated approach is constructed by using a SAAS based software i.e., work collaboration service (WCS), and SMEs as the elements of study. Where the WCS’s functionality is qualified to the collaboration needs that exist in operational and project work within SMEs. For this research constructivist approach and case study method is selected because the nature of the current study requires an in depth study of the work collaboration service as well as a detailed study of the work systems within different enterprises. Four different companies are selected in which fourteen interviews are conducted to gather data pertaining. The work systems method and framework are used as a central part of the approach to collect, analyze and interpret the enterprises work systems model and the underlying collaboration needs on operational and project work. On the other hand, the functional model of the WCS and its functionality is determined from functional model analysis, software testing, documentation and meetings with the service vendor. The enterprise work system model and the WCS model are compared to reveal how work progression differs between the two and make visible unaddressed stages of work progression. The WCS functionality is compared to work systems collaboration needs to ascertain if the service will suffice the needs of the project and operational work under study. The unaddressed needs provide opportunities to improve the functionality of the service for better conformity to the needs of enterprise and work. The results revealed that the functional models actually differed in how operational and project work progressed within the stages. WCS shared similar stages of work progression apart from the stages of identification and acceptance, and progress and completion stages were only partially addressed. Conclusion is that the identified unaddressed needs such as, single point of reference, SLA and OLA inclusion etc., should be implemented or improved within the WCS at appropriate stages of work to gain better compliance of the service to the needs of the enterprise an work itself. The developed approach can hence be used to carry out similar analysis for the conformance of pre-built software functionality to work system needs with SMEs.

Caractérisation des complexes ribonucléoprotéiques de Staufen1 et Staufen2

Dans la cellule, chaque ARNm se doit d’être régulé finement au niveau transcriptionnel, bien entendu, mais également au niveau de sa traduction, de sa dégradation ainsi que de sa localisation intracellulaire, et ce, afin de permettre l’expression de chaque produit protéique au moment et à l’endroit précis où son action est requise. Lorsqu’un mécanisme physiologique est mis de l’avant dans la cellule, il arrive souvent que plusieurs ARNm se doivent d’être régulés simultanément. L’un des moyens permettant d’orchestrer un tel processus est de réguler l’action d’une protéine commune associée à chacun de ces ARNm, via un mécanisme post-traductionnel par exemple. Ainsi l’expression d’un groupe précis d’ARNm peut être régulée finement dans le temps et dans l’espace selon les facteurs protéiques auxquels il est associé. Dans l’optique d’étudier certains de ces complexes ribonucléoprotéiques (mRNP), nous nous sommes intéressés aux isoformes et paralogues de Staufen, une protéine à domaine de liaison à l’ARN double-brin (dsRBD) impliquée dans de nombreux aspects de la régulation post-transcriptionnelle, tels la dégradation, la traduction ou encore la localisation d’ARNm. Chez la drosophile, un seul gène Staufen est exprimé alors que chez les mammifères, il existe deux paralogues de la protéine, soit Stau1 et Stau2, tous deux possédant divers isoformes produits suite à l’épissage alternatif de leur gène. Stau1 et Stau2 sont identiques à 50%. Les deux isoformes de Stau2, Stau259 et Stau262 ne diffèrent qu’en leur extrémité N-terminale. En effet, alors que Stau259 arbore un dsRBD1 tronqué, celui de Stau262 est complet. Ces observations introduisent une problématique très intéressante à laquelle nous nous sommes attaqué : ces différentes protéines, quoique très semblables, font-elles partie de complexes ribonucléoprotéiques distincts ayant des fonctions propres à chacun ou, au contraire, vu cette similarité de séquence, travaillent-elles de concert au sein des mêmes complexes ribonucléoprotéiques? Afin d’adresser cette question, nous avons entrepris d’isoler, à partir de cellules HEK293T, les différents complexes de Stau1 et Stau2 par la technique d’immunoprécipitation. Nous avons isolé les ARNm associés à chaque protéine, les avons identifiés grâce aux micropuces d’ADN et avons confirmé nos résultats par RT-PCR. Malgré la présence d’une population commune d’ARNm associée à Stau1 et Stau2, la majorité des transcrits identifiés furent spécifiques à chaque orthologue. Cependant, nous avons remarqué que les diverses populations d’ARNm participaient aux mêmes mécanismes de régulation, ce qui suggère que ces deux protéines possèdent des rôles complémentaires dans la mise en œuvre de divers phénomènes cellulaires. Au contraire, les transcrits associés à Stau259 et Stau262 sont davantage similaires, indiquant que celles-ci auraient des fonctions plutôt semblables. Ces résultats sont très intéressants, car pour la première fois, nous avons identifié des populations d’ARNm associées aux isoformes Stau155, Stau259 et Stau262. De plus, nous les avons analysées en parallèle afin d’en faire ressortir les populations spécifiques à chacune de ces protéines. Ensuite, connaissant l’importance de Stau2 dans le transport dendritique d’ARNm, nous avons cherché à caractériser les complexes ribonucléoprotéiques neuronaux associés à celle-ci. Dans un premier temps et à l’aide de la technique d’immunoprécipitation, nous avons identifié une population d’ARNm neuronaux associés à Stau2. Plus de 1700 ARNm montraient une présence d’au moins huit fois supérieure dans le précipité obtenu avec l’anticorps anti-Stau2 par rapport à celui obtenu avec le sérum pré-immun. Ces ARNm codent pour des protéines impliquées dans des processus de modifications post-traductionnelles, de traduction, de transport intracellulaire et de métabolisme de l’ARN. De façon intéressante, cette population d’ARNm isolée du cerveau de rat est relativement différente de celle caractérisée des cellules humaines HEK293T. Ceci suggère que la spécificité d’association Stau2-ARNm peut diffèrer d’un tissu à un autre. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons isolé les protéines présentes dans les complexes ribonucléoprotéiques obtenus de cerveaux de rat et les avons identifiées par analyse en spectrométrie de masse. De cette façon, nous avons identifié au sein des particules de Stau2 des protéines liant l’ARN (PABPC1, hnRNPH1, YB1, hsc70), des protéines du cytosquelette (α- et β-tubuline), de même que la protéine peu caractérisée RUFY3. En poussant davantage la caractérisation, nous avons établi que YB1 et PABPC1 étaient associées à Stau2 grâce à la présence de l’ARN, alors que la protéine hsc70, au contraire, interagissait directement avec celle-ci. Enfin, cette dernière association semble être modulable par l’action de l’ATP. Ce résultat offre de nombreuses possibilités quant à la régulation de la fonction de Stau2 et/ou de son mRNP. Entre autres, cette étude suggère un mécanisme de régulation de la traduction au sein de ces particules. Pour faire suite à la caractérisation des mRNP de Stau, nous avons voulu déterminer au niveau neurophysiologique l’importance de ceux-ci. Comme l’étude de Stau2 avait déjà été entreprise préalablement par un autre laboratoire, nous avons décidé de concentrer notre étude sur le rôle de Stau1. Ainsi, nous avons démontré que celle-ci était nécessaire à la mise en place d’une forme de plasticité synaptique à long terme, la forme tardive de potentialisation à long terme ou L-LTP, dépendante de la transcription et de l’activité des récepteurs NMDA. La transmission de base, de même que la faculté de ces épines à faire de la E-LTP, la forme précoce de potentialisation à long terme, et la dépression à long terme ou LTD sont conservées. Ceci indique que les épines conservent la capacité d’être modulées. Ainsi, l’inhibition de la L-LTP, suite à la sous-expression de Stau1, n’est pas simplement due à la perte d’éléments fonctionnels, mais réside plutôt dans l’incapacité de ceux-ci à induire les changements synaptiques spécifiquement nécessaires à la mise en place de la L-LTP. De plus, au niveau synaptique, la sous-expression de Stau1 réduit à la fois l’amplitude et la fréquence des mEPSC. Ces résultats concordent avec l’observation que la sous-expression de Stau1 augmente significativement la proportion d’épines allongées et filopodales, des épines formant des synapses dites silencieuses. Par le fait même, elle diminue le nombre d’épines fonctionnelles, de forme dite normale. Ainsi, nous avons été en mesure de démontrer que l’absence, au niveau neuronal, de la protéine Stau1 induisait un déficit probable dans la localisation et/ou la traduction d’ARNm responsable de la restructuration de l’épine et de facteurs nécessaires à la mise en place de la L-LTP. En conclusion, nous avons participé à lever le voile sur la composition et l’importance des complexes ribonucléoprotéiques de Stau1 et Stau2. Nous avons identifié des populations distinctes et communes d’ARNm associées aux différents isoformes de Stau, à partir des mRNP présents au sein des cellules HEK293. De plus, nous avons réussi à mettre à l’avant plan certaines composantes des mRNP neuronaux de Stau2, dont un partenaire protéique direct, hsc70, partenaire dont l’association est modulable par l’action de l’ATP, ainsi qu’une population neuronale de transcrits d’ARNm. Enfin, nous avons mis en lumière l’importance de Stau1 dans la morphologie des épines dendritiques ainsi que dans le phénomène de la plasticité synaptique.

The hotelling model with multiple demands

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an elementary introduction to the non-renewable resource model with multiple demand curves. The theoretical literature following Hotelling (1931) assumed that all energy needs are satisfied by one type of resource (e.g. ‘oil’), extractible at different per-unit costs. This formulation implicitly assumes that all users are the same distance from each resource pool, that all users are subject to the same regulations, and that motorist users can switch as easily from liquid fossil fuels to coal as electric utilities can. These assumptions imply, as Herfindahl (1967) showed, that in competitive equilibrium all users will exhaust a lower cost resource completely before beginning to extract a higher cost resource: simultaneous extraction of different grades of oil or of oil and coal should never occur. In trying to apply the single-demand curve model during the last twenty years, several teams of authors have independently found a need to generalize it to account for users differing in their (1) location, (2) regulatory environment, or (3) resource needs. Each research team found that Herfindahl's strong, unrealistic conclusion disappears in the generalized model; in its place, a weaker Herfindahl result emerges. Since each research team focussed on a different application, however, it has not always been clear that everyone has been describing the same generalized model. Our goal is to integrate the findings of these teams and to exposit the generalized model in a form which is easily accessible.

Model-based objects recognition in industrial environments for autonomous vehicles control

Behavior-based navigation of autonomous vehicles requires the recognition of the navigable areas and the potential obstacles. In this paper we describe a model-based objects recognition system which is part of an image interpretation system intended to assist the navigation of autonomous vehicles that operate in industrial environments. The recognition system integrates color, shape and texture information together with the location of the vanishing point. The recognition process starts from some prior scene knowledge, that is, a generic model of the expected scene and the potential objects. The recognition system constitutes an approach where different low-level vision techniques extract a multitude of image descriptors which are then analyzed using a rule-based reasoning system to interpret the image content. This system has been implemented using a rule-based cooperative expert system

Model-based objects recognition in man-made environments

We describe a model-based objects recognition system which is part of an image interpretation system intended to assist autonomous vehicles navigation. The system is intended to operate in man-made environments. Behavior-based navigation of autonomous vehicles involves the recognition of navigable areas and the potential obstacles. The recognition system integrates color, shape and texture information together with the location of the vanishing point. The recognition process starts from some prior scene knowledge, that is, a generic model of the expected scene and the potential objects. The recognition system constitutes an approach where different low-level vision techniques extract a multitude of image descriptors which are then analyzed using a rule-based reasoning system to interpret the image content. This system has been implemented using CEES, the C++ embedded expert system shell developed in the Systems Engineering and Automatic Control Laboratory (University of Girona) as a specific rule-based problem solving tool. It has been especially conceived for supporting cooperative expert systems, and uses the object oriented programming paradigm

El consumo de los hogares colombianos, 2006-2007: estimación de sistemas de demanda

Utilizando datos a nivel de hogares de la Encuesta de Ingresos y Gastos 2006- 007, presentamos nuevas estimaciones de sistemas de demanda para Colombia. Estimamos tres diferentes especificaciones de sistemas de demanda, a saber, el Sistema Lineal de Gastos (LES), el Sistema Lineal de Gastos Extendido (ELES) y el Sistema Cuasi-Ideal de Demanda (AIDS). También calculamos valores de elas- ticidades gasto, ingreso y precio para diferentes grupos de bienes. Encontramos que la elasticidad gasto de los alimentos se ha mantenido estable a través del tiempo alrededor de 0.77. Por su parte, el vestuario ha dejado de ser un de bien de lujo para volverse un bien de elasticidad gasto unitaria. Finalmente, la salud y la educación siguen siendo bienes de lujo, pero sus elasticidades gasto han caıdo a través es del tiempo.

Modelling, control and supervision for a class of hybrid systems

The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

Quantifying the effect of buffer zones, crop areas and spatial aggregation on the externalities of genetically modified crops at landscape level

The development of genetically modified (GM) crops has led the European Union (EU) to put forward the concept of 'coexistence' to give fanners the freedom to plant both conventional and GM varieties. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge in the market, 'contamination' by GM pollen would generate a negative externality to conventional growers. It is therefore important to assess the effect of different 'policy variables'on the magnitude of the externality to identify suitable policies to manage coexistence. In this paper, taking GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape as a model crop, we start from the model developed in Ceddia et al. [Ceddia, M.G., Bartlett, M., Perrings, C., 2007. Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: the case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Ecol. Modell. 205, pp. 169-180] use a Monte Carlo experiment to generate data and then estimate the effect of the number of GM and conventional fields, width of buffer areas and the degree of spatial aggregation (i.e. the 'policy variables') on the magnitude of the externality at the landscape level. To represent realistic conditions in agricultural production, we assume that detection of GM material in conventional produce might occur at the field level (no grain mixing occurs) or at the silos level (where grain mixing from different fields in the landscape occurs). In the former case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on the number of conventional fields with average transgenic presence above a certain threshold. In the latter case, the magnitude of the externality will depend on whether the average transgenic presence across all conventional fields exceeds the threshold. In order to quantify the effect of the relevant' policy variables', we compute the marginal effects and the elasticities. Our results show that when relying on marginal effects to assess the impact of the different 'policy variables', spatial aggregation is far more important when transgenic material is detected at field level, corroborating previous research. However, when elasticity is used, the effectiveness of spatial aggregation in reducing the externality is almost identical whether detection occurs at field level or at silos level. Our results show also that the area planted with GM is the most important 'policy variable' in affecting the externality to conventional growers and that buffer areas on conventional fields are more effective than those on GM fields. The implications of the results for the coexistence policies in the EU are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Consumer welfare and the loss induced by withholding information: The case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding it formation about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost,function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.

Predicting the arrival of high-speed solar wind streams at Earth using the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

High-speed solar wind streams modify the Earth's geomagnetic environment, perturbing the ionosphere, modulating the flux of cosmic rays into the Earth atmosphere, and triggering substorms. Such activity can affect modern technological systems. To investigate the potential for predicting the arrival of such streams at Earth, images taken by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) on the STEREO-A spacecraft have been used to identify the onsets of high-speed solar wind streams from observations of regions of increased plasma concentrations associated with corotating interaction regions, or CIRs. In order to confirm that these transients were indeed associated with CIRs and to study their average properties, arrival times predicted from the HI images were used in a superposed epoch analysis to confirm their identity in near-Earth solar wind data obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft and to observe their influence on a number of salient geophysical parameters. The results are almost identical to those of a parallel superposed epoch analysis that used the onset times of the high-speed streams derived from east/west deflections in the ACE measurements of solar wind speed to predict the arrival of such streams at Earth, assuming they corotated with the Sun with a period of 27 days. Repeating the superposed epoch analysis using restricted data sets demonstrates that this technique can provide a timely prediction of the arrival of CIRs at least 1 day ahead of their arrival at Earth and that such advanced warning can be provided from a spacecraft placed 40° ahead of Earth in its orbit.

The effects of a soft drink tax in the UK

The majority of the UK population is either overweight or obese. Health economists, nutritionists and doctors are calling for the UK to follow the example of other European countries and introduce a tax on soft drinks as a result of the perception that high intakes contribute to diet-related disease. We use a demand model estimated with household-level data on beverage purchases in the UK to investigate the effects of a tax on soft drink consumption. The model is a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, and censoring is handled by applying a double hurdle. Separate models are estimated for low, moderate and high consumers to allow for a differential impact on consumption between these groups. Applying different hypothetical tax rates, we conclude that understanding the nature of substitute/complement relationships is crucial in designing an effective policy as these relationships differ between consumers depending on their consumption level. The overall impact of a soft drink tax on calorie consumption is likely to be small.