Prognostic heterogeneity among patients with chronic stable coronary disease: determinants of long-term mortality after treatment with percutaneous intervention

Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of death in a large population of patients with stable coronary disease treated with percutaneous intervention. Methods and results: The study population comprised 1,276 patients with chronic angina or silent ischaemia who underwent elective coronary angioplasty. Baseline and in-hospital mortality data were prospectively collected for all patients during the index hospitalisation. Post-discharge outcome was assessed at out-patient clinic, by review of the patients` records, or direct phone contact. Deaths were classified as cardiac and non-cardiac. Age, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure with NYHA class Ill, triple-vessel disease, and procedural success (i.e. angiographic success for all lesions in the absence of pen-procedural infarction) remained as multivariate independent predictors of death. For the entire population 4-year cumulative all-cause and cardiac mortality were respectively 5.4% and 4.1%. Four-year mortality for patients without any multivariate predictor was 2.4%, while for patients with two or more predictors the death rate was 16.3% after four years. Conclusions: Patients with stable coronary disease undergoing percutaneous treatment have an overall low mortality rate after four years. Nevertheless, stable patients comprise a heterogeneous population in terms of risk profile, ranging from patients at very low risk of late death to individuals with a poor long-term prognosis.

To treat or not to treat? A meta-analysis of the use of cholinesterase inhibitors in mild cognitive impairment for delaying progression to Alzheimer`s disease

Individual randomized clinical trials (RCTs) with cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) aiming to delay the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer`s disease (AD) have not found significant benefit of their use for this purpose. The objective of this study is to meta-analyze the RCTs conducted with ChEIs in order to assess whether pooled analysis could show the benefit of these drugs in delaying the progression from MCI to AD. We searched for references of published and unpublished studies on electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Clinical Trial Database Registry, particularly the Clinicaltrials.gov-http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). We retrieved 173 references, which yielded three references for data extraction. A total of 3.574 subjects from four RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. Among 1,784 subjects allocated in the ChEI-treatment group, 275 (15.4%) progressed to AD/dementia, as opposed to 366 (20.4%) out of 1,790 subjects in the placebo group. The relative risk (RR) for progression to AD/dementia in the ChEI-treated group was 0.75 [CI(95%) 0.66-0.87], z = -3.89, P < 0.001. The patients on the ChEI group had a significantly higher all-cause dropout risk than the patients on the placebo group (RR = 1.36 CI(95%) [1.24-1.49]; z = 6.59, P < 0.001). The RR for serious adverse events (SAE) in the ChEI-treated group showed no significantly statistical difference from the placebo group (RR = 0.95 [CI(95%) 0.83-1.09], z = -0.72, P = 0.47). The subjects in the ChEI-treated group had a marginally, non-significant, higher risk of death due to any cause than those in the placebo-treated group (RR = 1.04, CI(95%) 0.63-1.70, z = 0.16, P = 0.86). The long-term use of ChEIs in subjects with MCI may attenuate the risk of progression to AD/dementia. This finding may have a significant impact on public health and pharmaco-economic policies.

Obesity, estrone, and coronary artery disease in postmenopausal women

Objectives: The link between obesity and endogenous estrogen with coronary artery disease (CAD) in postmenopausal women is uncertain. In this prospective study we analyzed the association of body mass index (BMI) and blood levels of estrone in postmenopausal women with known CAD or with a high risk factor score for CAD. Methods: Participants were 251 female clinic patients aged 50-90 years who were postmenopausal and not using estrogen therapy. Clinical and behavioral characteristics and fasting blood for estrone and heart disease risk factors were collected at baseline, and again at I and 2 years. Women were grouped according to their BMI (kg/m(2)) as normal (18.5 <= BMI < 25), overweight (25 <= BMI < 30) or obese (BMI >= 30), and by low and high estrone levels (< 15 and >= 15 pg/mL, respectively). Fatal and nonfatal events were recorded for 2 years after baseline. Results: Women with a low estrone level were older, thinner, and had less hypertension, diabetes, and lower triglyceride and glucose levels. BMI was positively associated with estrone levels, hypertension, and diabetes and inversely associated with HDL cholesterol. There were 14 deaths, 8 attributed to CAD. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a nonsignificant trend (p = 0.074) of greater all cause mortality in women with low estrone levels (< 15 mL). In this model, adjusted for BMI, age [OR 1.08; p = 0.03], C-reactive protein [OR = 1.24; p = 0.024] and hypertension [OR = 6.22; p = 0.003] were independent predictors of all cause mortality. Conclusions: Postmenopausal women with low estrone levels (< 15 pg/mL) had a trend for increased mortality over the next 2 years. Larger, longer studies are needed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Chagas` Cardiomyopathy and Ventricular Tachycardia Not Treated with Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators

Methods: We assessed the outcome of 56 patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy ([31 men]; mean age of 55 years; mean left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] 42%) presenting with either sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) or nonsustained VT (NSVT), before therapy with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator was available at our center. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 38 +/- 16 months (range, 1-61 months), 16 patients (29%) died, 11 due to sudden cardiac death (SCD), and five from progressive heart failure. Survivors and nonsurvivors had comparable baseline characteristics, except for a lower LVEF (46 +/- 7% vs 31 +/- 9%, P < 0.001) and a higher New York Heart Association class (P = 0.003) in those who died during follow-up. Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis showed that an LVEF cutoff value of 38% had the best accuracy for predicting all-cause mortality and an LVEF cutoff value of 40% had the best accuracy for prediction of SCD. Using the multivariate Cox regression analysis, LVEF < 40% was the only predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 12.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.46-43.17, P = 0.0001) and SCD (HR 6.58, 95% CI 1.74-24.88, P = 0.005). Conclusions: Patients with Chagas` cardiomyopathy presenting with either sustained VT or NSVT run a major risk for mortality when had concomitant severe or even moderate LV systolic dysfunction. (PACE 2011; 54-62).

Genetic Covariation between Serum {gamma}-Glutamyltransferase Activity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background: Several studies have shown that variation in serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in the population is associated with risk of death or development of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, or hypertension. This association is only partly explained by associations between GGT and recognized risk factors. Our aim was to estimate the relative importance of genetic and environmental sources of variation in GGT as well as genetic and environmental sources of covariation between GGT and other liver enzymes and markers of cardiovascular risk in adult twin pairs. Methods: We recruited 1134 men and 2241 women through the Australian Twin Registry. Data were collected through mailed questionnaires, telephone interviews, and by analysis of blood samples. Sources of variation in GGT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and of covariation between GGT and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed by maximum-likelihood model-fitting. Results: Serum GGT, ALT, and AST were affected by additive genetic and nonshared environmental factors, with heritabilities estimated at 0.52, 0.48, and 0.32, respectively. One-half of the genetic variance in GGT was shared with ALT, AST, or both. There were highly significant correlations between GGT and body mass index; serum lipids, lipoproteins, glucose, and insulin; and blood pressure. These correlations were more attributable to genes that affect both GGT and known cardiovascular risk factors than to environmental factors. Conclusions: Variation in serum enzymes that reflect liver function showed significant genetic effects, and there was evidence that both genetic and environmental factors that affect these enzymes can also affect cardiovascular risk. (C) 2002 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

Use of stress echocardiography to predict mortality in patients with diabetes and known or suspected coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE - This study sought to determine whether stress echocardiography using exercise (when feasible) or dobutamine echo could be used to predict mortality in patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Stress echo was performed in 937 patients with diabetes (aged 59 +/- 13 years, 529 men) for symptom evaluation (42%) and follow-up of known coronary artery disease (CAD) (58%). Stress echocardiography using exercise was performed in 333 patients able to exercise maximally, and dobutamine echo using a standard dobutamine stress was used in 604 patients. Patients were followed for less than or equal to9 years (mean 3.9 +/- 2.3) for all-cause mortality. RESULTS - Normal studies were obtained in 567 (60%) patients; 29% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, and 25% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 183 (20%) patients and to multiple territories in 187 (20%) patients. Death (in 275 [29%] patients) was predicted by referral for pharmacologic stress (hazard ratio [HR] 3.94, P < 0.0001), ischemia (1.77, P <0.0001), age (1.02, P = 0.002), and heart failure (1.54, P = 0.01). The risk of death in patients With a normal scan was 4% per year, and this was associated with age and selection for pharmacologic stress testing. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the predictive power of independent clinical predictors (age, selection for pharmacologic stress, previous infarction, and heart failure; model chi(2) = 104.8) was significantly enhanced by addition of stress echo data (model chi(2) = 122.9). CONCLUSIONS - The results of stress echo are independent predictors of death in diabetic patients with known or suspected CAD.. Ischemia adds risk that is incremental to clinical risks and LV dysfunction.

Cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with average cholesterol levels and established ischaemic heart disease: is it cost-effective?

Objective: To measure the cost-effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy with pravastatin in patients with established ischaemic heart disease and average baseline cholesterol levels. Design: Prospective economic evaluation within a double-blind randomised trial (Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease [LIPID]), in which patients with a history of unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction were randomised to receive 40 mg of pravastatin daily or matching placebo. Patients and setting: 9014 patients aged 35-75 years from 85 centres in Australia and New Zealand, recruited from June 1990 to December 1992. Main outcome measures: Cost per death averted, cost per life-year gained, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained, calculated from measures of hospitalisations, medication use, outpatient visits, and quality of life. Results: The LIPID trial showed a 22% relative reduction in all-cause mortality (P < 0.001). Over a mean follow-up of 6 years, hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and coronary revascularisation were reduced by about 20%. Over this period, pravastatin cost $A4913 per patient, but reduced total hospitalisation costs by $A1385 per patient and other long-term medication costs by $A360 per patient. In a subsample of patients, average quality of life was 0.98 (where 0 = dead and 1 = normal good health); the treatment groups were not significantly different. The absolute reduction in all-cause mortality was 3.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.4%), and the incremental cost was $3246 per patient, resulting in a cost per life saved of $107730 (95% Cl, $68626-$209881) within the study period. Extrapolating long-term survival from the placebo group, the undiscounted cost per life-year saved was $7695 (and $10 938 with costs and life-years discounted at an annual rate of 5%). Conclusions: Pravastatin therapy for patients with a history of myocardial infarction or unstable angina and average cholesterol levels reduces all-cause mortality and appears cost effective compared with accepted treatments in high-income countries.

A practical guide to exercise training for heart failure patients

Background: Exercise training has been shown to improve exercise capacity in patients with heart failure. We sought to examine the optimal strategy of exercise training for patients with heart failure. Methods: Review of the published data on the characteristics of the training program, with comparison of physiologic markers of exercise capacity in heart failure patients and healthy individuals and comparison of the change in these characteristics after all exercise training program. Results: Many factors, including the duration, supervision, and venue of exercise training; the volume of working muscle; the delivery mode (eg, continuous vs. intermittent exercise), training intensity; and the concurrent effects of medical treatments may influence the results of exercise training in heart failure. Starting in an individually prescribed and safely monitored hospital-based program, followed by progression to an ongoing and progressive home program of exercise appears to be the best solution to the barriers of anxiety, adherence, and ease of access encountered by the heart failure patient. Conclusions: Various exercise training programs have been shown to improve exercise capacity and symptom status in heart failure, but these improvements may only be preserved with an ongoing maintenance program.

Calcificações vasculares nos doentes em diálise : elo de ligação entre doença óssea e doença vascular

RESUMO: A presente dissertação para tese de doutoramento apresenta o desenvolvimento e a validação de um método simples e original para o diagnóstico de calcificações vasculares em doentes em diálise, utilizando um score semiquantitativo criado por nós e obtido em RX simples da bacia e das mãos, denominado score de calcifi cação vascular simples. Demonstramos que este score vascular simples é preditor de risco cardiovascular nos doentes em diálise. O score de calcificação vascular simples associou-se ainda à baixa densidade mineral óssea avaliada por dual energy X -ray absortiometry (DXA) no colo do fémur. Verifi camos igualmente que, em doentes em diálise, as calcifi cações coronárias quantifi cadas pelo score de Agatston e o score de calcifi cação vascular simples se associaram a um menor volume ósseo avaliado em biopsias ósseas. Estes trabalhos corroboram a hipótese da existência de um elo de ligação entre a doença óssea e a doença vascular nos doentes em diálise, e um dos elementos que contribuem para este elo de ligação podem ser as calcificações vasculares. Este score de calcificação vascular simples avalia calcifi cações em artérias de grande, médio e pequeno calibre, e inclui os dois padrões radiológicos de calcificação: calcificação linear, associada à calcifi cação da camada média da parede arterial, e calcificação irregular, associada à calcifi cação da camada íntima arterial1. Nos diferentes trabalhos por nós publicados demonstramos que as calcificações vasculares avaliadas por este método simples e barato permitem a identificação de indivíduos com elevado risco cardiovascular. Este score vascular associa -se a maior risco de mortalidade cardiovascular2, de mortalidade de causa global3, de internamentos cardiovasculares2, de doença ardiovascular2, de doença arterial periférica2,4,de calcifi cações valvulares5 e de rigidez arterial3. As guidelines KDIGO (Kidney disease: improving global outcomes), publicadas em 2009,sugerem que os doentes renais crónicos nos estadios 3 a 5, com calcificações vasculares e valvulares, devem ser considerados como apresentando o mais elevado risco cardiovascular6. A elevada mortalidade dos doentes renais crónicos não é totalmente explicada pelos fatores de risco tradicionais7. A organização KDIGO defende, desde 2006, a hipótese da existência de um elo de ligação entre a doença óssea e a doença vascular8. Esta ligação pode ser explicada pelas alterações do metabolismo mineral e ósseo e pela sua interação com as calcificações vasculares. Verificamos, nos nossos trabalhos, uma associação entre calcifi cações vasculares e doença óssea. O baixo volume ósseo diagnosticado por análise histomorfométrica de biopsias ósseas foi preditor de maior risco de calcificações vasculares avaliadas pelo score de calcifi cação vascular simples (dados apresentados nesta dissertação, no capítulo 6) e pelo score coronário de Agatston num grupo de doentes em diálise9. A contribuição original deste artigo9 foi considerada merecedora de um editorial feito pelo Dr. Gérard London10, investigador líder na área da calcificação vascular dos doentes renais crónicos e actual Presidente da EDTA (European Dialysis and Transplantation Association). Fomos também os primeiros a descrever uma associação independente e inversa entre a densidade mineral avaliada no colo do fémur por DXA (dual energy X -ray absortiometry) com calcificações vasculares avaliadas pelo score de calcificação vascular simples, com rigidez arterial avaliada por velocidade de onda de pulsocarotidofemoral e com doença arterial periférica diagnosticada por critérios clínicos11. Fomos igualmente os primeiros a mostrar uma correlação signifi cativa entre a densidade mineral óssea avaliada por DXA no colo do fémur, mas não na coluna lombar, com a espessura cortical avaliada por análise histomorfométrica em biopsia óssea12. O nosso estudo atribui pela primeira vez à DXA um papel no diagnóstico de porosidade cortical nos doentes em diálise. A utilidade da avaliação diferencial da densidade mineral óssea cortical e trabecular necessita ainda de ser confirmada em estudos prospectivos. Este achado inovador do nosso estudo foi mencionado pela ERBP (European Renal Best Practice) no comentário feito à posição da KDIGO que considera ser reduzida a utilidade da densidade mineral óssea nos doentes em diálise13. Dois dos trabalhos incluídos nesta dissertação foram referenciados nas guidelines KDIGO 2009 para avaliar a prevalência das calcificações vasculares (KDIGO 2009: Tabela suplementar 10, Fig. 3.6) e para validar a associação entre calcificações vasculares e mortalidade cardiovascular (KDIGO 2009: Tabela suplementar 12, Fig. 3.7)6. A inclusão destes nossos dois estudos nas referências destas guidelines, que utilizaram o exigente sistema GRADE (Grades of recommendation, assessment, development, and evaluation) na classificação e selecção dos estudos, valida o interesse científico dos nossos trabalhos. O diagnóstico de calcificações vasculares tem um interesse prático para os doentes renais crónicos. A presença de calcifi cações vasculares é um sinal de alerta para a existência de um elevado risco cardiovascular, e esta informação pode ser utilizada para modificar a terapêutica nestes doentes6. Diferentes métodos podem ser usados para diagnosticar calcificações vasculares nos doentes em diálise14,15. O score de calcificação vascular simples tem a vantagem da simplicidade e de poder ser facilmente interpretado pelo nefrologista, sem necessidade de um radiologista. A reprodutibilidade deste score já foi demonstrada por diferentes grupos em estudos nacionais e internacionais16-24. Nestes estudos foi demonstrado que as calcifi cações vasculares avaliadas pelo método criado por nós são preditoras de maior risco de eventos cardiovasculares16, de amputações dos membros inferiores17, de velocidade de onda de pulso18,19, de calcificações corneanas e conjuntivais20 e de calcifi cações coronárias21. Também foi demonstrada uma associação inversa entre o score de calcificação vascular simples com os níveis séricos de PTH21, com os níveis de 25(OH)vitamina D 22,23 e com os níveis de fetuína A19,24. Todos estes estudos, realizados por diferentes grupos, que utilizaram o score de calcificação vascular simples na sua metodologia, comprovam a facilidade de utilização deste score e a concordância de resultados atestam a sua reprodutibilidade e a utilidade na avaliação dos doentes renais crónicos. ---------------------------ABSTRACT: This thesis presents the development and validation of a simple and original method to identify vascular calcifications in dialysis patients, using a semi -quantitative score that we have created and that is obtained in plain X -ray of pelvis and hands. This score was named in different publications as “simple vascular calcifi cation score”. We have demonstrated that this score is a predictor of higher cardiovascular risk in dialysis patients. The simple vascular calcification score was also associated with lower mineral bone density evaluated by DXA in femoral neck. In hemodialysis patients coronary calcifications evaluated by the coronary Agatston score and by the simple vascular calcification score were associated with lower bone volume analysed in bone biopsies. These studies corroborate the hypothesis of the existence of a link between bone disease and vascular disease in dialysis patients and one of the elements of this link may be vascular calcifications. This simple vascular calcification score identifi es calcifications in large, medium and small calibre arteries and includes the two radiological patterns of arterial calcifi cation: linear calcification which has been associated with the calcifi cation of the media layer of the arterial wall and irregular and patchy calcification which has been associated with the calcifi cation of the intima layer of the arterial wall1. In the several studies that we have published we have demonstrated that vascular calcifications evaluated by this simple and inexpensive method allow the identification of patients with high cardiovascular risk. This simple vascular calcification score is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality2, all -cause mortality3, cardiovascular hospitalizations2, cardiovascular disease2, peripheral artery disease2,4, valvular calcifi cations5 and arterial stiffness3.KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines published in 2009 suggest that chronic kidney disease patients in stages 3 to 5, with vascular and valvular calcifications should be considered to be at the highest cardiovascular risk6. The high mortality of chronic kidney disease patients is not completely explained by the traditional risk factors7 and KDIGO group supports, since 2006, the hypothesis of the existence of a link between bone disease and vascular disease8.This link may be explained by the alterations of the bone and mineral metabolism and their interaction with development and progression of vascular calcifications. We have also verifi ed in our studies the existence of an association between vascular calcifications and bone disease. Low bone volume diagnosed by histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsies, in a group of dialysis patients, was independently associated with the simple vascular calcification score (data presented in this thesis,chapter 6) and with coronary calcifications evaluated by the Agatston score9. The original contribution of this article published in CJASN9 deserved a commentary in an Editorial written by Prof. Gérard London10 leader investigator in this area and current EDTA (European Dialysis and Transplantation Association) President. We were also the fi rst group to describe an independent and inverse association between bone mineral density evaluated in the femoral neck by DXA (dual energy X -ray absortiometry) with vascular calcifications evaluated by the simple vascular calcification score, with arterial stiffness evaluated by carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and with peripheral artery disease diagnosed by clinical criteria11. We were also the first group to demonstrate a significant correlation between bone mineral density evaluated by DXA in femoral neck but not in lumbar spine, with cortical thickness evaluated by histomorphometric analysis of bone biopsy12. Our study has attributed to DXA, for the first time, a role in the diagnosis of cortical porosity in dialysis patients. The clinical utility of the differential evaluation of bone mineral density in cortical or trabecular bone needs, however, to be confi rmed in prospective studies. This original fi nding of our study was mentioned by ERBP (European Renal Best Practice) commenting the KDIGO position in relation with the reduced utility of bone mineral density evaluation in dialysis patients13. Two of the studies included in this thesis have been integrated in a group of studies selected as references by the KDIGO guidelines published in 2009 to evaluate the prevalence of vascular calcifications in CKD patients (KDIGO 2009: Supplementary Table 10, Fig. 3.6) and to corroborate the association between vascular calcifications and cardiovascular mortality (KDIGO 2009: Supplementary Table 12, Fig. 3.7)6. The inclusion of both studies as references in the KDIGO guidelines that have used the exigent GRADE system (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) in the classifi cation and selection of studies, validates the scientifi c value of our studies. The diagnosis of vascular calcifi cations has a practical interest for chronic kidney disease patients. The presence of vascular calcifications is an alert sign to the existence of a high cardiovascular risk and this information may be used to modify the treatment of these patients6. Different methods may be used to detect the presence of vascular calcifications in dialysis patients14,15. The simple vascular calcifi cation score has the advantage of being simple, inexpensive and easily evaluated by the Nephrologist without the need for a Radiologist interpretation. The reproducibility of this method has already been demonstrated by other groups in national and international studies16 -24. It was demonstrated in those studies that vascular calcifi cations evaluated by the method created by us, predict higher risk of cardiovascular events16, higher risk of lower limbs amputations17, higher pulse wave velocity18,19, corneal and conjuntival calcifi cations 20 and coronary calcifi cations21. A negative association between the simple vascular calcification score and PTH levels21, 25(OH) vitamin D levels22,23 and Fetuin A levels19,24 has also been demonstrated. All these studies performed by different groups that have used the simple vascular calcifi cation score in their methods demonstrate that this score is simple, useful and reproducible in the evaluation of chronic kidney disease patients simple, useful and reproducible in the evaluation of chronic kidney disease patients.

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

The economic assessment of health benefits of active transport

Purpose:This chapter addresses the economic assessment of health benefits of active transport and presents most recent valuation studies with an overview of progresses made towards the inclusion of health benefits in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of active transport. Methodology/approach: It is built upon the contracted study for the World Health Organization (WHO) on the economic appraisal of health benefits of walking and cycling investments at the city of Viana do Castelo, the former pilot study in Portugal for evaluating the health benefits of non-motorized transport using the WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT). The relative risk values adopted in the HEAT for walking refer to adult population of the age group 20â 74 years and the assessment focus in on average physical activity/regular behaviour of groups of pedestrians and all-cause mortality health impacts. During the case study, it was developed and implemented a mobility survey which aimed to collect behavioural data before and after a street intervention in the historic centre. Findings: Most recent appraisal guidance of walking and cycling and health impact modelling studies reviewed confirm that further research is expected before a more comprehensive appraisal procedure can be adopted in Europe, able to integrate physical activity effects along with other health risks such as those related to road traffic injuries and exposure to air pollution. Social implications: The health benefits assessment of walking investments helped local decision-makers to progress towards sustainable mobility options in the city. Making the population aware of the potential health benefits of regular walking can encourage more people to uptake active transport as part of their daily activities. Originality/value: This study provides a useful review of the health benefits of active transport with a comprehensive analysis of valuation studies, presenting value-added information. It then reports a former assessment of the health effects of active transport in the Portuguese context (case study) using the state-of-the-art economic analysis tool (HEAT) of the World Health Organization which is believed to contribute to a paradigm shift in the transport policy and appraisal practice given the need of shaping future cities (and their citizens) for health through more investments in active transport.

Long-term Outcomes of Drug-eluting versus Bare-metal stent for ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background:Long-term outcomes of drug-eluting stents (DES) versus bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remain uncertain.Objective:To investigate long-term outcomes of drug-eluting stents (DES) versus bare-metal stents (BMS) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Methods:We performed search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, and ISI Web of Science (until February 2013) for randomized trials comparing more than 12-month efficacy or safety of DES with BMS in patients with STEMI. Pooled estimate was presented with risk ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) using random-effects model.Results:Ten trials with 7,592 participants with STEMI were included. The overall results showed that there was no significant difference in the incidence of all-cause death and definite/probable stent thrombosis between DES and BMS at long-term follow-up. Patients receiving DES implantation appeared to have a lower 1-year incidence of recurrent myocardial infarction than those receiving BMS (RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.00, p= 0.05). Moreover, the risk of target vessel revascularization (TVR) after receiving DES was consistently lowered during long-term observation (all p< 0.01). In subgroup analysis, the use of everolimus-eluting stents (EES) was associated with reduced risk of stent thrombosis in STEMI patients (RR = 0.37, p=0.02).Conclusions:DES did not increase the risk of stent thrombosis in patients with STEMI compared with BMS. Moreover, the use of DES did lower long-term risk of repeat revascularization and might decrease the occurrence of reinfarction.

Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction: Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. Objective: The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. Results: A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): −2.65 to −0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = −0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: −0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64–1.56; p = 0.993). Conclusion: Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.