Evaluating the SEVIRI Fire Thermal Anomaly Detection Algorithm across the Central African Republic Using the MODIS Active Fire Product

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI's omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI's low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI's commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

Improved Principal Component Monitoring of Large-Scale Processes

This is the first paper that shows and theoretically analyses that the presence of auto-correlation can produce considerable alterations in the Type I and Type II errors in univariate and multivariate statistical control charts. To remove this undesired effect, linear inverse ARMA filter are employed and the application studies in this paper show that false alarms (increased Type I errors) and an insensitive monitoring statistics (increased Type II errors) were eliminated.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part I: Modeling Auto- and Cross-Correlation

The work in this paper is of particular significance since it considers the problem of modelling cross- and auto-correlation in statistical process monitoring. The presence of both types of correlation can lead to fault insensitivity or false alarms, although in published literature to date, only autocorrelation has been broadly considered. The proposed method, which uses a Kalman innovation model, effectively removes both correlations. The paper (and Part 2 [2]) has emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and is of direct relevance to problems in several application areas including chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring.

Measurement-based Method for Wind Farm Power System Oscillations Monitoring

The global increase in the penetration of renewable energy is pushing electrical power systems into uncharted territory, especially in terms of transient and dynamic stability. In particular, the greater penetration of wind generation in European power networks is, at times, displacing a significant capacity of conventional synchronous generation with fixed-speed induction generation and now more commonly, doubly fed induction generators. The impact of such changes in the generation mix requires careful monitoring to assess the impact on transient and dynamic stability. This study presents a measurement-based method for the early detection of power system oscillations, with consideration of mode damping, in order to raise alarms and develop strategies to actively improve power system dynamic stability and security. A method is developed based on wavelet-based support vector data description (SVDD) to detect oscillation modes in wind farm output power, which may excite dynamic instabilities in the wider system. The wavelet transform is used as a filter to identify oscillations in frequency bands, whereas the SVDD method is used to extract dominant features from different scales and generate an assessment boundary according to the extracted features. Poorly damped oscillations of a large magnitude, or that are resonant, can be alarmed to the system operator, to reduce the risk of system instability. The proposed method is exemplified using measured data from a chosen wind farm site.

Between Order and Modernity: Resurgence Planning in Revolutionary Egypt

Egypt’s Revolution of 1952 presented a major historical change to its political and economic structure, its society, and its institutions. This paper examines how Nasser’s regime operated through the state apparatus to exhibit features of modernity. Under the pretext of modernization, renovating Cairo’s authentic urban fabric was one of the channels that displayed the new ambitions to unveil a centralized system of governance and ideologies of socialism. The paper particularly looks at the city’s resurgence attempts, promoted by upgrading practices that displayed Western ideals of planning. Eventually, the contradictory planning legislative system introduced by the government raised early alarms at the problems encountered in the planning institution that was not only unable to liberate Cairo’s urban districts from its long-rooted decay, but also struggled to implement the regime’s flagship policy of social justice in a context wherein it was much needed.

Measurement-based Method for Wind Farm Power System Oscillation Monitoring

The global increase in the penetration of renewable energy is pushing electrical power systems into uncharted territory, especially in terms of transient and dynamic stability. In particular, the greater penetration of wind generation in European power networks is, at times, displacing a significant capacity of conventional synchronous generation with fixed-speed induction generation and now more commonly, doubly-fed induction generators. The impact of such changes in the generation mix requires careful monitoring to assess the impact on transient and dynamic stability. This paper presents a measurement based method for the early detection of power system oscillations, with attention to mode damping, in order to raise alarms and develop strategies to actively improve power system dynamic stability and security. A method is developed based on wavelet transform and support vector data description (SVDD) to detect oscillation modes in wind farm output power, which may excite dynamic instabilities in the wider system. The wavelet transform is used as a filter to identify oscillations in different frequency bands, while SVDD is used to extract dominant features from different scales and generate an assessment boundary according to the extracted features. Poorly damped oscillations of a large magnitude or that are resonant can be alarmed to the system operator, to reduce the risk of system instability. Method evaluation is exemplified used real data from a chosen wind farm.

Synchrophasor-Based Islanding Detection for Distributed Generation Systems Using Systematic Principal Component Analysis Approaches

Systematic principal component analysis (PCA) methods are presented in this paper for reliable islanding detection for power systems with significant penetration of distributed generations (DGs), where synchrophasors recorded by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) are used for system monitoring. Existing islanding detection methods such as Rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF) and Vector Shift are fast for processing local information, however with the growth in installed capacity of DGs, they suffer from several drawbacks. Incumbent genset islanding detection cannot distinguish a system wide disturbance from an islanding event, leading to mal-operation. The problem is even more significant when the grid does not have sufficient inertia to limit frequency divergences in the system fault/stress due to the high penetration of DGs. To tackle such problems, this paper introduces PCA methods for islanding detection. Simple control chart is established for intuitive visualization of the transients. A Recursive PCA (RPCA) scheme is proposed as a reliable extension of the PCA method to reduce the false alarms for time-varying process. To further reduce the computational burden, the approximate linear dependence condition (ALDC) errors are calculated to update the associated PCA model. The proposed PCA and RPCA methods are verified by detecting abnormal transients occurring in the UK utility network.

Acute Asthma Epidemics, Weather and Pollen in England, 1987-1994

Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predictions of a log-linear autoregression model. They were compared with control days 1 week before and afterwards, regarding seven meteorological variables and 5 day average pollen counts for four species. Fifty six asthma epidemics were identified. The mean density of sferics (lightning flashes), temperature and rainfall on epidemic days were greater than those on control days. High sferics densities were overrepresented in epidemics. Simultaneously high sferics and grass pollen further increased the probability of an epidemic, but only to 15% (95% confidence interval 2-45%). Two thirds of epidemics were not preceded by thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and high grass pollen levels precede asthma epidemics more often than expected by chance. However, most epidemics are not associated with thunderstorms or unusual weather conditions, and most thunderstorms, even following high grass pollen levels, do not precede epidemics. An early warning system based on the indicators examined here would, therefore, detect few epidemics and generate an unacceptably high rate of false alarms.

Support System for Rational Use of Electric Energy

This paper presents the system developed to promote the rational use of electric energy among consumers and, thus, increase the energy efficiency. The goal is to provide energy consumers with an application that displays the energy consumption/production profiles, sets up consuming ceilings, defines automatic alerts and alarms, compares anonymously consumers with identical energy usage profiles by region and predicts, in the case of non-residential installations, the expected consumption/production values. The resulting distributed system is organized in two main blocks: front-end and back-end. The front-end includes user interface applications for Android mobile devices and Web browsers. The back-end provides data storage and processing functionalities and is installed in a cloud computing platform - the Google App Engine - which provides a standard Web service interface. This option ensures interoperability, scalability and robustness to the system.

Sistema de monitorização e alarmística de ativos de rede

Este documento contém todo o estudo e planeamento para a implementação de um novo sistema de monitorização e alarmística, desenvolvido para o serviço de informática, no decorrer do estágio profissional no Instituto Português de Oncologia do Porto. Observou-se que o sistema já existente, apesar de facilitar algumas ações da equipa, apresentava muitas lacunas, mas ao mesmo tempo uma boa abertura para evolução. A criação desse sistema teve que contemplar um conjunto de objetivos que levaram a elaboração de estudos, permitindo uma análise e fundamento na tomada de decisões e na criação de tarefas e testes. É apresentado também um estudo de uma nova arquitetura, pois devido a falta de recursos que a solução já implementada tinha, que permitisse ao serviço de informática obter um sistema robusto, redundante, fiável, seguro e sempre disponível.

An Investigation of the Role of Attention in the Cross-Race Effect: An Ecological Approach

The current set of studies was conducted to examine the cross-race effect (CRE), a phenomenon commonly found in the face perception literature. The CRE is evident when participants display better own-race face recognition accuracy than other-race recognition accuracy (e.g. Ackerman et al., 2006). Typically the cross-race effect is attributed to perceptual expertise, (i.e., other-race faces are processed less holistically; Michel, Rossion, Han, Chung & Caldara, 2006), and the social cognitive model (i.e., other-race faces are processed at the categorical level by virtue of being an out-group member; Hugenberg, Young, Bernstein, & Sacco, 2010). These effects may be mediated by differential attention. I investigated whether other-race faces are disregarded and, consequently, not remembered as accurately as own-race (in-group) faces. In Experiment 1, I examined how the magnitude of the CRE differed when participants learned individual faces sequentially versus when they learned multiple faces simultaneously in arrays comprising faces and objects. I also examined how the CRE differed when participants recognized individual faces presented sequentially versus in arrays of eight faces. Participants’ recognition accuracy was better for own-race faces than other-race faces regardless of familiarization method. However, the difference between own- and other-race accuracy was larger when faces were familiarized sequentially in comparison to familiarization with arrays. Participants’ response patterns during testing differed depending on the combination of familiarization and testing method. Participants had more false alarms for other-race faces than own-race faces if they learned faces sequentially (regardless of testing strategy); if participants learned faces in arrays, they had more false alarms for other-race faces than own-races faces if ii i they were tested with sequentially presented faces. These results are consistent with the perceptual expertise model in that participants were better able to use the full two seconds in the sequential task for own-race faces, but not for other-race faces. The purpose of Experiment 2 was to examine participants’ attentional allocation in complex scenes. Participants were shown scenes comprising people in real places, but the head stimuli used in Experiment 1 were superimposed onto the bodies in each scene. Using a Tobii eyetracker, participants’ looking time for both own- and other-race faces was evaluated to determine whether participants looked longer at own-race faces and whether individual differences in looking time correlated with individual differences in recognition accuracy. The results of this experiment demonstrated that although own-race faces were preferentially attended to in comparison to other-race faces, individual differences in looking time biases towards own-race faces did not correlate with individual differences in own-race recognition advantages. These results are also consistent with perceptual expertise, as it seems that the role of attentional biases towards own-race faces is independent of the cognitive processing that occurs for own-race faces. All together, these results have implications for face perception tasks that are performed in the lab, how accurate people may be when remembering faces in the real world, and the accuracy and patterns of errors in eyewitness testimony.

Investigation of clusters of giardiasis using GIS and a spatial scan statistic

Affiliation: Pascal Michel : Département de pathologie et microbiologie, Faculté de médecine vétérinaire

Vidéosurveillance intelligente pour la détection de chutes chez les personnes âgées

Les pays industrialisés comme le Canada doivent faire face au vieillissement de leur population. En particulier, la majorité des personnes âgées, vivant à domicile et souvent seules, font face à des situations à risques telles que des chutes. Dans ce contexte, la vidéosurveillance est une solution innovante qui peut leur permettre de vivre normalement dans un environnement sécurisé. L’idée serait de placer un réseau de caméras dans l’appartement de la personne pour détecter automatiquement une chute. En cas de problème, un message pourrait être envoyé suivant l’urgence aux secours ou à la famille via une connexion internet sécurisée. Pour un système bas coût, nous avons limité le nombre de caméras à une seule par pièce ce qui nous a poussé à explorer les méthodes monoculaires de détection de chutes. Nous avons d’abord exploré le problème d’un point de vue 2D (image) en nous intéressant aux changements importants de la silhouette de la personne lors d’une chute. Les données d’activités normales d’une personne âgée ont été modélisées par un mélange de gaussiennes nous permettant de détecter tout événement anormal. Notre méthode a été validée à l’aide d’une vidéothèque de chutes simulées et d’activités normales réalistes. Cependant, une information 3D telle que la localisation de la personne par rapport à son environnement peut être très intéressante pour un système d’analyse de comportement. Bien qu’il soit préférable d’utiliser un système multi-caméras pour obtenir une information 3D, nous avons prouvé qu’avec une seule caméra calibrée, il était possible de localiser une personne dans son environnement grâce à sa tête. Concrêtement, la tête de la personne, modélisée par une ellipsoide, est suivie dans la séquence d’images à l’aide d’un filtre à particules. La précision de la localisation 3D de la tête a été évaluée avec une bibliothèque de séquence vidéos contenant les vraies localisations 3D obtenues par un système de capture de mouvement (Motion Capture). Un exemple d’application utilisant la trajectoire 3D de la tête est proposée dans le cadre de la détection de chutes. En conclusion, un système de vidéosurveillance pour la détection de chutes avec une seule caméra par pièce est parfaitement envisageable. Pour réduire au maximum les risques de fausses alarmes, une méthode hybride combinant des informations 2D et 3D pourrait être envisagée.

Détection de chute à l'aide d'une caméra de profondeur

Les chutes chez les personnes âgées représentent un problème important de santé publique. Des études montrent qu’environ 30 % des personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus chutent chaque année au Canada, entraînant des conséquences néfastes sur les plans individuel, familiale et sociale. Face à une telle situation la vidéosurveillance est une solution efficace assurant la sécurité de ces personnes. À ce jour de nombreux systèmes d’assistance de services à la personne existent. Ces dispositifs permettent à la personne âgée de vivre chez elle tout en assurant sa sécurité par le port d'un capteur. Cependant le port du capteur en permanence par le sujet est peu confortable et contraignant. C'est pourquoi la recherche s’est récemment intéressée à l’utilisation de caméras au lieu de capteurs portables. Le but de ce projet est de démontrer que l'utilisation d'un dispositif de vidéosurveillance peut contribuer à la réduction de ce fléau. Dans ce document nous présentons une approche de détection automatique de chute, basée sur une méthode de suivi 3D du sujet en utilisant une caméra de profondeur (Kinect de Microsoft) positionnée à la verticale du sol. Ce suivi est réalisé en utilisant la silhouette extraite en temps réel avec une approche robuste d’extraction de fond 3D basée sur la variation de profondeur des pixels dans la scène. Cette méthode se fondera sur une initialisation par une capture de la scène sans aucun sujet. Une fois la silhouette extraite, les 10% de la silhouette correspondant à la zone la plus haute de la silhouette (la plus proche de l'objectif de la Kinect) sera analysée en temps réel selon la vitesse et la position de son centre de gravité. Ces critères permettront donc après analyse de détecter la chute, puis d'émettre un signal (courrier ou texto) vers l'individu ou à l’autorité en charge de la personne âgée. Cette méthode a été validée à l’aide de plusieurs vidéos de chutes simulées par un cascadeur. La position de la caméra et son information de profondeur réduisent de façon considérable les risques de fausses alarmes de chute. Positionnée verticalement au sol, la caméra permet donc d'analyser la scène et surtout de procéder au suivi de la silhouette sans occultation majeure, qui conduisent dans certains cas à des fausses alertes. En outre les différents critères de détection de chute, sont des caractéristiques fiables pour différencier la chute d'une personne, d'un accroupissement ou d'une position assise. Néanmoins l'angle de vue de la caméra demeure un problème car il n'est pas assez grand pour couvrir une surface conséquente. Une solution à ce dilemme serait de fixer une lentille sur l'objectif de la Kinect permettant l’élargissement de la zone surveillée.

SQualTrack: A Tool for Robust Fault Detection

One of the techniques used to detect faults in dynamic systems is analytical redundancy. An important difficulty in applying this technique to real systems is dealing with the uncertainties associated with the system itself and with the measurements. In this paper, this uncertainty is taken into account by the use of intervals for the parameters of the model and for the measurements. The method that is proposed in this paper checks the consistency between the system's behavior, obtained from the measurements, and the model's behavior; if they are inconsistent, then there is a fault. The problem of detecting faults is stated as a quantified real constraint satisfaction problem, which can be solved using the modal interval analysis (MIA). MIA is used because it provides powerful tools to extend the calculations over real functions to intervals. To improve the results of the detection of the faults, the simultaneous use of several sliding time windows is proposed. The result of implementing this method is semiqualitative tracking (SQualTrack), a fault-detection tool that is robust in the sense that it does not generate false alarms, i.e., if there are false alarms, they indicate either that the interval model does not represent the system adequately or that the interval measurements do not represent the true values of the variables adequately. SQualTrack is currently being used to detect faults in real processes. Some of these applications using real data have been developed within the European project advanced decision support system for chemical/petrochemical manufacturing processes and are also described in this paper