A Bootstrap-Regression Procedure to Capture Unit Specific Effects in Data Envelopment Analysis

The Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency score obtained for an individual firm is a point estimate without any confidence interval around it. In recent years, researchers have resorted to bootstrapping in order to generate empirical distributions of efficiency scores. This procedure assumes that all firms have the same probability of getting an efficiency score from any specified interval within the [0,1] range. We propose a bootstrap procedure that empirically generates the conditional distribution of efficiency for each individual firm given systematic factors that influence its efficiency. Instead of resampling directly from the pooled DEA scores, we first regress these scores on a set of explanatory variables not included at the DEA stage and bootstrap the residuals from this regression. These pseudo-efficiency scores incorporate the systematic effects of unit-specific factors along with the contribution of the randomly drawn residual. Data from the U.S. airline industry are utilized in an empirical application.

Impact of knowledge brokering on performance heterogeneity among business models

Purpose – The strategic management literature lacks a comprehensive explanation as to why seemingly similar business models in the same industry perform differently. This paper strives to explain this phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach – The model is conceptualized and accompanied by a case study on the airline industry to explain knowledge brokerage that creates value from the effective utilization of knowledge resources acquired from intra- and inter-firm environments. Findings – The model explains a cyclical view of business model flexibility in which the knowledge-based resource accumulation of the business model is spread across the intra- and inter-firm environments. Knowledge brokerage strategies from the inter- and intra-firm environments result in improved performance of the business model. The flexibility that the business model acquires is determined by how efficiently resource accumulation is aligned with its external environment. Originality/value – The paper effectively integrates the concepts of knowledge brokerage and business models from a resource accumulation-based view and simultaneously arrives at the performance heterogeneity of seemingly similar business models within the same industry. It has performance implications for firms that start out without any distinct resources of their own, or that use an imitated business model, to attain better performance through business model evolution aligned with successful knowledge brokerage strategies. It adds to the resource accumulation literature by explaining how resources can be effectively acquired to create value.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

O SETOR ÁEREO CIVIL BRASILEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE DE DESEMPENHO DAS EMPRESAS NO PERÍODO DE 1995 A 2007

O presente trabalho busca descobrir quais fatores são capazes de explicar o desempenho das empresas do setor aéreo, bem como as possíveis causas para a diferenciação de desempenho nas empresas deste setor, tendo por fundamento a teoria da visão baseada em recursos (RBV) e a teoria Institucional, teorias estas relacionadas ao campo da estratégia empresarial. Para atingir esse objetivo, vamos traçar um histórico do setor de aviação comercial brasileira desde os seus primórdios até o ano de 2007, realizaremos uma revisão de literatura sobre a RBV, teoria Institucional, vantagem competitiva e desempenho organizacional. Trabalhamos com dados secundários fornecidos pela ANAC, referentes ao período de 1995 a 2007, os quais devem ser analisados à luz de uma análise multinível, considerando o fator firma na análise.(AU)

O SETOR ÁEREO CIVIL BRASILEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE DE DESEMPENHO DAS EMPRESAS NO PERÍODO DE 1995 A 2007

O presente trabalho busca descobrir quais fatores são capazes de explicar o desempenho das empresas do setor aéreo, bem como as possíveis causas para a diferenciação de desempenho nas empresas deste setor, tendo por fundamento a teoria da visão baseada em recursos (RBV) e a teoria Institucional, teorias estas relacionadas ao campo da estratégia empresarial. Para atingir esse objetivo, vamos traçar um histórico do setor de aviação comercial brasileira desde os seus primórdios até o ano de 2007, realizaremos uma revisão de literatura sobre a RBV, teoria Institucional, vantagem competitiva e desempenho organizacional. Trabalhamos com dados secundários fornecidos pela ANAC, referentes ao período de 1995 a 2007, os quais devem ser analisados à luz de uma análise multinível, considerando o fator firma na análise.(AU)

The European and Southeast Asian Single Aviation Markets. EU Centre, Background Brief No. 15, July 2015

Civil aviation in Europe is one major area where landmark changes have taken place since the late 1980s – the liberalization and deregulation of the sector by member states in three “packages” in the 1980s has transformed an economic sector historically characterized by heavy protectionism, collusion and strong state intervention. Today, the European Union’s (EU) aviation sector contributes to 2.4% of European GDP and supports 5.1 million jobs. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has also eagerly taken steps to integrate its aviation markets as part of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. This background brief chronicles the changes made in the aviation sector in Europe through regional integration and examines how these changes have affected policymaking in member states, the airline industry and consumers. The brief also examines ASEAN’s own effort in the integration of its own aviation sector and, taking into account the EU’s strong interest in cooperating with ASEAN on transport and civil aviation policy, whether the changes in the EU are applicable in the ASEAN context.

O SETOR ÁEREO CIVIL BRASILEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE DE DESEMPENHO DAS EMPRESAS NO PERÍODO DE 1995 A 2007

O presente trabalho busca descobrir quais fatores são capazes de explicar o desempenho das empresas do setor aéreo, bem como as possíveis causas para a diferenciação de desempenho nas empresas deste setor, tendo por fundamento a teoria da visão baseada em recursos (RBV) e a teoria Institucional, teorias estas relacionadas ao campo da estratégia empresarial. Para atingir esse objetivo, vamos traçar um histórico do setor de aviação comercial brasileira desde os seus primórdios até o ano de 2007, realizaremos uma revisão de literatura sobre a RBV, teoria Institucional, vantagem competitiva e desempenho organizacional. Trabalhamos com dados secundários fornecidos pela ANAC, referentes ao período de 1995 a 2007, os quais devem ser analisados à luz de uma análise multinível, considerando o fator firma na análise.(AU)

B2B e-marketplaces in the procurement supply chain of airlines: a strategic direction for the future?:a strategic direction for the future?

With the airline industry experiencing a global economic downturn, B2B e-Business is becoming more and more the focus of airlines’ strategies. More recently, airlines have studied intensively the potential of joint-procurement possibilities and have taken measures in creating consortia-led B2B e-Marketplaces as mediators for aggregating demand and to facilitate transactions. In academic literature, limited academic research has been undertaken in exploring the value creation of B2B e-Marketplace models in the aviation industry. The aim is to conduct a theoretical analysis to explore whether or not e-Marketplaces have the potential to add value to procurement in the aviation industry. The research focuses on the potential of B2B e-Marketplaces in terms of improving an airline’s competitiveness in its procurement value chain. The theoretical framework adopted supports the identification of barriers to success and critical success factors.

Making the organization fly:organizational identification and citizenship in full-service and low-cost airlines

Recently, the service industry has seen a low-cost sector emerge alongside the traditional full-service sector. We explored whether these business models have different implications for employee cooperation, one factor that plays an important role in organizational functioning. Drawing on the social identity perspective, we argue that employees will identify less strongly with the lower-status, low-cost organizations, reducing their intrinsic motivation for such cooperation. We tested these relationships among employees in Thailand's airline industry. In line with expectations, flight attendants working for low-cost airlines (N = 77) perceived their organizations to have lower status than those working for the full-service airlines (N = 77), and this was associated with reduced organizational identification. This in turn predicted lower levels of organizational citizenship behaviour and a stronger desire for organizational exit. © 2010 Hogrefe Publishing.

Anarchy In The Airways

In his dialogue - Anarchy In The Airways - Joseph C. Von Kornfeld, Assistant Professor, College of Hotel Administration, University of Nevada, Las Vegas initially states: “Deregulation of the airline industry has brought about financial vulnerability for the traveling public. The author analyzes the situation since that point in time and makes recommendations for some solutions.” In this article, Assistant Professor Von Kornfeld, first defines the airline industry in its pre-regulated form. Then he goes into the ramifications and results of deregulating the industry, both in regards to the consumer, and in deregulation’s impact on the airlines themselves. “The most dramatic consequence of the pressures and turbulence of airline deregulation has been the unprecedented proliferation of airline bankruptcies,” Von Kornfeld informs. “Prior to the deregulation of the U.S. airline industry in 1978, U.S. air carriers operated in a business environment that was insulated from the normal stresses and strains of open competition. They were restricted from actively competing with fares and routings by the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB),” Von Kornfeld says. In leveling the playing field, Von Kornfeld offers, “Each carrier was restricted to specific geographic routes, with those routes limited to two or three competing carriers. The only thing that set carriers apart in this CAB defined atmosphere was their ability to either advertise, or to enhance their level of service; or both. “…ultimately paid for by the passenger through fare increases sanctioned by the CAB,” Von Kornfeld states. “Airline service standards were unquestionably superior during the regulated environment,” Von Kornfeld renders an interesting observation. He does mention, however, that carrier safety was also considered a concern immediately prior to, and then after deregulation. “The major controversy focused on the allegation that safety and maintenance standards would be compromised due to the financial pressures brought about by an openly competitive environment,” Von Kornfeld says. Pricing, as well as labor unions are important factors in the equation, and Von Kornfeld addresses their relevance in the deregulated environment. “The primary rationalization for deregulation was to facilitate a more openly competitive environment. The increased competition was to ultimately have benefitted the consumer. Ironically, that’s not entirely the case, Von Kornfeld elaborates. In addressing some of the negative aspects of airline deregulation, Von Kornfeld suggests that some sort of federal re-regulation may be in order.

International Air Transporation: Some Challenges

In a Spring 1984 article in the FIU Hospitality Review, new developments in the domestic airline industry were discussed, particularly those relating to the forces of deregulation and the changes brought about by this phenomenon. This article takes a wider perspective in examining the global air transportation scene, the changes that have been wrought recently on air carriers flying international routes, and the carriers' responses to these changes.

Aircraft Marketing in an Era of Deregulation

The deregulation of commercial aviation has had far-reaching effects on all aspects of business. In the Spring 1984 issue, the author explored some of the changes in the domestic airline industry. This article discusses the effects of deregulation on another group - those who manufacture commercial aircraft.

Essays in Industrial Organization

This dissertation extends the empirical industrial organization literature with two essays on strategic decisions of firms in imperfectly competitive markets and one essay on how inertia in consumer choice can result in significant welfare losses. Using data from the airline industry I study a well-known puzzle in the literature whereby incumbent firms decrease fares when Southwest Airlines emerges as a potential entrant, but is not (yet) competing directly. In the first essay I describe this so-called Southwest Effect and use reduced-form analysis to offer possible explanations for why firms may choose to forgo profits today rather than wait until Southwest operates the route. The analysis suggests that incumbent firms are attempting to signal to Southwest that entry is unprofitable so as to deter its entry. The second essay develops this theme by extending a classic model from the IO literature, limit pricing, to a dynamic setting. Calibrations indicate the price cuts observed in the data can be captured by a dynamic limit pricing model. The third essay looks at another concentrated industry, mobile telecoms, and studies how inertia in choice (be it inattention or switching costs) can lead to consumers being on poorly matched cellphone plans and how a simple policy proposal can have a considerable effect on welfare.

Situation Background Assessment Recommendation (SBAR): Undergraduate Perspectives

Situation Background Assessment and Recommendation (SBAR): Undergraduate Perspectives C Morgan, L Adams, J Murray, R Dunlop, IK Walsh. Ian K Walsh, Centre for Medical Education, Queen’s University Belfast, Mulhouse Building, Royal Victoria Hospital, Grosvenor Road, Belfast BT12 6DP Background and Purpose: Structured communication tools are used to improve team communication quality.1,2 The Situation Background Assessment and Recommendation (SBAR) tool is widely adopted within patient safety.3 SBAR effectiveness is reportedly equivocal, suggesting use is not sustained beyond initial training.4-6 Understanding perspectives of those using SBAR may further improve clinical communication. We investigated senior medical undergraduate perspectives on SBAR, particularly when communicating with senior colleagues. Methodology: Mixed methods data collection was used. A previously piloted questionnaire with 12 five point Lickert scale questions and 3 open questions was given to all final year medical students. A subgroup also participated in 10 focus groups, deploying strictly structured audio-recorded questions. Selection was by convenience sampling, data gathered by open text questions and comments transcribed verbatim. In-vivo coding (iterative, towards data saturation) preceded thematic analysis. Results: 233 of 255 students (91%) completed the survey. 1. There were clearly contradictory viewpoints on SBAR usage. A recurrent theme was a desire for formal feedback and a relative lack of practice/experience with SBAR. 2. Students reported SBAR as having variable interpretation between individuals; limiting use as a shared mental model. 3. Brief training sessions are insufficient to embed the tool. 4. Most students reported SBAR helping effective communication, especially by providing structure in stressful situations. 5. Only 18.5% of students felt an alternative resource might be needed. Sub analysis of the themes highlighted: A. Lack of clarity regarding what information to include and information placement within the acronym, B. Senior colleague negative response to SBAR C. Lack of conciseness with the tool. Discussion and Conclusions: Despite a wide range of contradictory interpretation of SBAR utility, most students wish to retain the resource. More practice opportunities/feedback may enhance user confidence and understanding. References: (1) Leonard M, Graham S, Bonacum D. The human factor: the critical importance of effective teamwork and communication in providing safe care. Quality & Safety in Health Care 2004 Oct;13(Suppl 1):85-90. (2) d'Agincourt-Canning LG, Kissoon N, Singal M, Pitfield AF. Culture, communication and safety: lessons from the airline industry. Indian J Pediatr 2011 Jun;78(6):703-708. (3) Dunsford J. Structured communication: improving patient safety with SBAR. Nurs Womens Health 2009 Oct;13(5):384-390. (4) Compton J, Copeland K, Flanders S, Cassity C, Spetman M, Xiao Y, et al. Implementing SBAR across a large multihospital health system. Jt Comm J Qual Patient Saf 2012 Jun;38(6):261-268. (5) Ludikhuize J, de Jonge E, Goossens A. Measuring adherence among nurses one year after training in applying the Modified Early Warning Score and Situation-Background-Assessment-Recommendation instruments. Resuscitation 2011 Nov;82(11):1428-1433. (6) Cunningham NJ, Weiland TJ, van Dijk J, Paddle P, Shilkofski N, Cunningham NY. Telephone referrals by junior doctors: a randomised controlled trial assessing the impact of SBAR in a simulated setting. Postgrad Med J 2012 Nov;88(1045):619-626.

UNDERSTANDING CUSTOMER CHOICES IN SERVICE OUTSOURCING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT

This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.