Applying complexity science to air traffic management

Complexity science is the multidisciplinary study of complex systems. Its marked network orientation lends itself well to transport contexts. Key features of complexity science are introduced and defined, with a specific focus on the application to air traffic management. An overview of complex network theory is presented, with examples of its corresponding metrics and multiple scales. Complexity science is starting to make important contributions to performance assessment and system design: selected, applied air traffic management case studies are explored. The important contexts of uncertainty, resilience and emergent behaviour are discussed, with future research priorities summarised.

En Route Speed Reduction Concept for Absorbing Air Traffic Flow Management Delays

This paper proposes an en route speed reduction to complement current ground delay practices in air traffic flow management. Given a nominal cruise speed, there exists a bounded range of speeds that allows aircraft to fly slower with the same or lower fuel consumption than the nominal flight. Therefore, flight times are increased and delay can be partially performed in the air, at no extra fuel cost for the operator. This concept has been analyzed in an initial feasibility study, computing the maximum amount of delay that can be performed in the air in some representative flights. The impact on fuel consumption has been analyzed, and two scenarios are proposed: the flight fuel remains the same as in the nominal flight, and some extra fuel allowance is permitted in order to face uncertainties. Results show significant values of airborne delay that may be useful in many situations, with the exception of short hauls where airborne delay may be too short. If cruise altitude is changed, the amount of airborne delay increases, since changes in cruise speed modify the optimal flight altitudes. From the analyzed flights, a linear dependency is found relating the airborne delay with the amount of extra fuel allowance.

Trajectory prediction uncertainty modelling for Air Traffic Management

The anticipated growth of air traffic worldwide requires enhanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) technologies and procedures to increase the system capacity, efficiency, and resilience, while reducing environmental impact and maintaining operational safety. To deal with these challenges, new automation and information exchange capabilities are being developed through different modernisation initiatives toward a new global operational concept called Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), in which aircraft trajectory information becomes the cornerstone of advanced ATM applications. This transformation will lead to higher levels of system complexity requiring enhanced Decision Support Tools (DST) to aid humans in the decision making processes. These will rely on accurate predicted aircraft trajectories, provided by advanced Trajectory Predictors (TP). The trajectory prediction process is subject to stochastic effects that introduce uncertainty into the predictions. Regardless of the assumptions that define the aircraft motion model underpinning the TP, deviations between predicted and actual trajectories are unavoidable. This thesis proposes an innovative method to characterise the uncertainty associated with a trajectory prediction based on the mathematical theory of Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE). Assuming univariate PCEs of the trajectory prediction inputs, the method describes how to generate multivariate PCEs of the prediction outputs that quantify their associated uncertainty. Arbitrary PCE (aPCE) was chosen because it allows a higher degree of flexibility to model input uncertainty. The obtained polynomial description can be used in subsequent prediction sensitivity analyses thanks to the relationship between polynomial coefficients and Sobol indices. The Sobol indices enable ranking the input parameters according to their influence on trajectory prediction uncertainty. The applicability of the aPCE-based uncertainty quantification detailed herein is analysed through a study case. This study case represents a typical aircraft trajectory prediction problem in ATM, in which uncertain parameters regarding aircraft performance, aircraft intent description, weather forecast, and initial conditions are considered simultaneously. Numerical results are compared to those obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the advantages of the proposed method. The thesis includes two examples of DSTs (Demand and Capacity Balancing tool, and Arrival Manager) to illustrate the potential benefits of exploiting the proposed uncertainty quantification method.

A crise do transporte a??reo no Brasil: 2006-2007

Este estudo de caso aborda a crise vivida pelo setor de transporte a??reo brasileiro nos anos de 2006 e 2007. Deflagrada por um acidente de vulto, a crise teve como protagonistas os controladores de tr??fego a??reo, que, sob suspeita de falha funcional e comunica????o dif??cil com as autoridades do setor, reagiram por meio de uma estrat??gia de opera????o-padr??o (greve branca). Essa situa????o, somada ?? escassez de pessoal, provocou, de novembro de 2006 at?? meados de 2007, o descontrole operacional dos principais aeroportos do pa??s, com grandes preju??zos aos usu??rios. Um novo acidente a??reo, no decorrer da crise, agravou ainda mais a situa????o do setor, expondo defici??ncias estruturais e profissionais ?? opini??o p??blica brasileira, em uma ??rea at?? ent??o considerada segura. O caso relata as tentativas de equacionamento da crise por parte das autoridades respons??veis pela pol??tica de transporte a??reo, frente ao descontentamento e ??s reivindica????es dos controladores de tr??fego a??reo e ?? indigna????o da sociedade. O objetivo do estudo de caso ?? ilustrar uma situa????o de crise e de processo de negocia????o, tendo sido originalmente utilizado em uma oficina sobre negocia????es no setor p??blico. O caso pode ser utilizado como material de apoio em cursos que abordem, entre outros, os seguintes t??picos: negocia????o, gest??o de crises, comunica????o e planejamento estrat??gico

Aviation English: Structure and Importance of an International Airborne Language

In today’s globalized world, air travel is one of the fastest growing markets. Millions of aircrafts take off and then touch down all around the world each day. This well-synchronized symphony, however, is much more complex than it seems, and communication – language - plays a crucial role during a plane’s journey. Misunderstandings and miscommunications can have disastrous effects, so the adoption of a standard phraseology to be used during flight is a means to overcome language barriers, avoid ambiguous expressions and guarantee a safe and effective operation of an aircraft. Little is known about the interaction that goes on between pilots and air traffic controllers (ATCOs), and even though the language of aviation is English, cockpit communication can be hard to understand for people who are not familiar with this specific language. The scope of this thesis is to examine the origins of this uncommon language, the characteristics and peculiarities of air communication and to shed a little light on this mystery called Aviation English.

Aircraft accident report : crash of Pinnacle Airlines flight 3701, Bombardier CL-600-2B19, N8396A, Jefferson City, Missouri, October 14, 2004 /

On October 14, 2004, about 2215:06 central daylight time, Pinnacle Airlines flight 3701 (doing business as Northwest Airlink), a Bombardier CL-600-2B19, N8396A, crashed into a residential area about 2.5 miles south of Jefferson City Memorial Airport, Jefferson City, Missouri. The airplane was on a repositioning flight from Little Rock National Airport, Little Rock, Arkansas, to Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, Minneapolis, Minnesota. During the flight, both engines flamed out after a pilot-induced aerodynamic stall and were unable to be restarted. The captain and the first officer were killed, and the airplane was destroyed. No one on the ground was injured. The flight was operating under the provisions of 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 on an instrument flight rules flight plan. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident. The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable causes of this accident were (1) the pilots' unprofessional behavior, deviation from standard operating procedures, and poor airmanship, which resulted in an in-flight emergency from which they were unable to recover, in part because of the pilots' inadequate training; (2) the pilots' failure to prepare for an emergency landing in a timely manner, including communicating with air traffic controllers immediately after the emergency about the loss of both engines and the availability of landing sites; and (3) the pilots' improper management of the double engine failure checklist, which allowed the engine cores to stop rotating and resulted in the core lock engine condition. Contributing to this accident were (1) the core lock engine condition, which prevented at least one engine from being restarted, and (2) the airplane flight manuals that did not communicate to pilots the importance of maintaining a minimum airspeed to keep the engine cores rotating.

A plan for modernization of the national system of aviation facilities /

Mode of access: Internet.

Aviation industry, a call to action : a joint FAA industry partnership to improve pilot/controller communications.

Shipping list no.: 89-297-P.

Design and Development of a Research Framework for Prototyping Control Tower Augmented Reality Tools

The purpose of the air traffic management system is to ensure the safe and efficient flow of air traffic. Therefore, while augmenting efficiency, throughput and capacity in airport operations, attention has rightly been placed on doing it in a safe manner. In the control tower, many advances in operational safety have come in the form of visualization tools for tower controllers. However, there is a paradox in developing such systems to increase controllers' situational awareness: by creating additional computer displays, the controller's vision is pulled away from the outside view and the time spent looking down at the monitors is increased. This reduces their situational awareness by forcing them to mentally and physically switch between the head-down equipment and the outside view. This research is based on the idea that augmented reality may be able to address this issue. The augmented reality concept has become increasingly popular over the past decade and is being proficiently used in many fields, such as entertainment, cultural heritage, aviation, military & defense. This know-how could be transferred to air traffic control with a relatively low effort and substantial benefits for controllers’ situation awareness. Research on this topic is consistent with SESAR objectives of increasing air traffic controllers’ situation awareness and enable up to 10 % of additional flights at congested airports while still increasing safety and efficiency. During the Ph.D., a research framework for prototyping augmented reality tools was set up. This framework consists of methodological tools for designing the augmented reality overlays, as well as of hardware and software equipment to test them. Several overlays have been designed and implemented in a simulated tower environment, which is a virtual reconstruction of Bologna airport control tower. The positive impact of such tools was preliminary assessed by means of the proposed methodology.

Augmented Reality for Airport Control Tower: Analysis and Implementation of Safety Nets

With the development of new technologies, Air Traffic Control, in the nearby of the airport, switched from a purely visual control to the use of radar, sensors and so on. As the industry is switching to the so-called Industry 4.0, also in this frame, it would be possible to implement some of the new tools that can facilitate the work of Air Traffic Controllers. The European Union proposed an innovative project to help the digitalization of the European Sky by means of the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program, which is the foundation on which the Single European Sky (SES) is based, in order to improve the already existing technologies to transform Air Traffic Management in Europe. Within this frame, the Resilient Synthetic Vision for Advanced Control Tower Air Navigation Service Provision (RETINA) project, which saw the light in 2016, studied the possibility to apply new tools within the conventional control tower to reduce the air traffic controller workload, thanks to the improvements in the augmented reality technologies. After the validation of RETINA, the Digital Technologies for Tower (DTT) project was established and the solution proposed by the University of Bologna aimed, among other things, to introduce Safety Nets in a Head-Up visualization. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the Safety Nets in use within the control tower and, by developing a working concept, implement them in a Head-Up view to be tested by Air Traffic Control Operators (ATCOs). The results, coming from the technical test, show that this concept is working and it could be leading to a future implementation in a real environment, as it improves the air traffic controller working conditions also when low visibility conditions apply.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO2 emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes. The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO2 emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO2 emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO2 emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO2 emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO2 emissions. Finally, projections for future CO2 emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.

Boston Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) lighting study /

Prepared by Raytheon Company, Equipment Division, Air Traffic Control Directorate, under contract DOT-FA 76WA-3738.

Operation rain-check at the Chicago Air Route Traffic Control Center, Aurora, Illinois.

Mode of access: Internet.

Welcome to Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center, Longmont, Colorado.

Mode of access: Internet.