A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.

Corporate social and environmental responsibility in relation to the agricultural sector and the food supply chain : a Case Study of Waitrose

Waitrose has a strong commitment to organic farming but also uses products from 'conventional' farms. At the production stage, Waitrose own-label products are fully traceable, GM-free and all suppliers undergo a detailed assessment programme based on current best practice. Crop suppliers to Waitrose operate an authenticity programme to certify that each assignment is GM-free and produce is screened for pesticide residues. Waitrose sources conventional crops grown from 'Integrated Crop Management Systems' (ICMS) using best horticultural practices. The 'Assured Product' scheme regulates all UK produce to ICMS standards and these audits are being extended worldwide. Business is withdrawn from suppliers who fail the audit. In relation to this, Waitrose has increased its Fairtrade range as in its view 'Buying these products provides direct additional benefit to workers in the developing countries where they are produced and assists marginal producers by giving them access to markets they would not otherwise have'. Currently, Waitrose is developing its own sustainable timber assessment criteria. For livestock, protocols are in place to ensure that animals are reared under the 'most natural conditions possible' and free range produce is offered where animals have access to open space although some produce is not from free-range animals. Waitrose also use a 'Hazards Analysis Critical Points' system to identify food safety hazards that occur at any stage from production to point of sale and to ensure that full measures are in place to control them. In addition, mechanisms have been implemented to reduce fuel use and hence reduce CO2 emissions in the transport of products and staff, and to increase the energy use efficiency of refrigeration systems which account for approximately 60% of Waitrose energy use.

The quantum inspired modelling of changing attitudes and self-organising societies

We utilise the well-developed quantum decision models known to the QI community to create a higher order social decision making model. A simple Agent Based Model (ABM) of a society of agents with changing attitudes towards a social issue is presented, where the private attitudes of individuals in the system are represented using a geometric structure inspired by quantum theory. We track the changing attitudes of the members of that society, and their resulting propensities to act, or not, in a given social context. A number of new issues surrounding this "scaling up" of quantum decision theories are discussed, as well as new directions and opportunities.

Recombination, decreased host specificity and increased mobility may have driven the emergence of maize streak virus as an agricultural pathogen

Maize streak virus (MSV; family Geminiviridae, genus Mastrevirus), the causal agent of maize streak disease, ranks amongst the most serious biological threats to food security in subSaharan Africa. Although five distinct MSV strains have been currently described, only one of these - MSV-A - causes severe disease in maize. Due primarily to their not being an obvious threat to agriculture, very little is known about the 'grass-adapted' MSV strains, MSV-B, -C, -D and -E. Since comparing the genetic diversities, geographical distributions and natural host ranges of MSV-A with the other MSV strains could provide valuable information on the epidemiology, evolution and emergence of MSV-A, we carried out a phylogeographical analysis of MSVs found in uncultivated indigenous African grasses. Amongst the 83 new MSV genomes presented here, we report the discovery of six new MSV strains (MSV-F to -K). The non-random recombination breakpoint distributions detectable with these and other available mastrevirus sequences partially mirror those seen in begomoviruses, implying that the forces shaping these breakpoint patterns have been largely conserved since the earliest geminivirus ancestors. We present evidence that the ancestor of all MSV-A variants was the recombinant progeny of ancestral MSV-B and MSV-G/-F variants. While it remains unknown whether recombination influenced the emergence of MSV-A in maize, our discovery that MSV-A variants may both move between and become established in different regions of Africa with greater ease, and infect more grass species than other MSV strains, goes some way towards explaining why MSV-A is such a successful maize pathogen. © 2008 SGM.

Understanding injury-related disability in non-Western societies can contribute to more effective road safety policies and programs

• Road crashes as a cause of disability • Disability in the study of road safety • Thai spinal injury study – Contextual information – beliefs and community – Transport system and hidden safety costs – Cambodia experience – Pakistan fatalism study • Feedback to policies and programs

Agricultural biodiversity, farm level technical efficiency and conservation benefits : an empirical investigation

The issues involved in agricultural biodiversity are important and interesting areas for the application of economic theory. However, very little theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken to understand the benefits of conserving agricultural biodiversity. Accordingly, the main objectives of this PhD thesis are to: (1) Investigate farmers’ valuation of agricultural biodiversity; (2) Identify factors influencing farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity; (3) Examine farmers’ demand for biodiversity rich farming systems; (4) Investigate the relationship between agricultural biodiversity and farm level technical efficiency. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data in small-scale farms, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarized as follows. Firstly, owing to educational and poverty issues of those being interviewed, some policy makers in developed countries question whether non-market valuation techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE) can be applied to developing countries such as Sri Lanka. The CE study in this thesis indicates that carefully designed and pre-tested nonmarket valuation techniques can be applied in developing countries with a high level of reliability. The CE findings support the priori assumption that small-scale farms and their multiple attributes contribute positively and significantly to the utility of farm families in Sri Lanka. Farmers have strong positive attitudes towards increasing agricultural biodiversity in rural areas. This suggests that these attitudes can be the basis on which appropriate policies can be introduced to improve agricultural biodiversity. Secondly, the thesis identifies the factors which influence farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity and farmers’ demands on biodiversity rich farming systems. As such they provide important tools for the implementation of policies designed to avoid the loss agricultural biodiversity which is shown to be a major impediment to agricultural growth and sustainable development in a number of developing countries. The results illustrate that certain key household, market and other characteristics (such as agricultural subsidies, percentage of investment of owned money and farm size) are the major determinants of demand for agricultural biodiversity on small-scale farms. The significant household characteristics that determine crop and livestock diversity include household member participation on the farm, off-farm income, shared labour, market price fluctuations and household wealth. Furthermore, it is shown that all the included market characteristics as well as agricultural subsidies are also important determinants of agricultural biodiversity. Thirdly, it is found that when the efficiency of agricultural production is measured in practice, the role of agricultural biodiversity has rarely been investigated in the literature. The results in the final section of the thesis show that crop diversity, livestock diversity and mix farming system are positively related to farm level technical efficiency. In addition to these variables education level, number of separate plots, agricultural extension service, credit access, membership of farm organization and land ownerships are significant and direct policy relevant variables in the inefficiency model. The results of the study therefore have important policy implications for conserving agricultural biodiversity in Sri Lanka.

Assessing eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries : combination of soil surface, soil system and farm gate methods of nutrient auditing

Nitrogen balance is increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in national, international, and global contexts. There are three main methods of accounting the national nitrogen balance: farm gate, soil surface, and soil system. OECD (2008) recently reported the nitrogen and phosphorus balances for member countries for the 1985 - 2004 period using the soil surface method. The farm gate and soil system methods were also used in some international projects. Some studies have provided the comparison among these methods and the conclusion is mixed. The motivation of this present paper was to combine these three methods to provide a more detailed auditing of the nitrogen balance and flows for national agricultural production. In addition, the present paper also provided a new strategy of using reliable international and national data sources to calculate nitrogen balance using the farm gate method. The empirical study focused on the nitrogen balance of OECD countries for the period from 1985 to 2003. The N surplus sent to the total environment of OECD surged dramatically in early 1980s, gradually decreased during 1990s but exhibited an increasing trends in early 2000s. The overall N efficiency however fluctuated without a clear increasing trend. The eco-environmental ranking shows that Australia and Ireland were the worst while Korea and Greece were the best.

ICT to enhance the triangle of life : the soil, the seed, and the life-giver farmer

This paper reports on the outcomes of an ICT enabled social sustainability project “Green Lanka1” trialled in the Wilgamuwa village, which is situated in the Dambulla district of Sri Lanka. The main goals of the project were focused towards the provision of information about market prices, transportation options, agricultural decision support and modern agriculture practices of the farmer communities to improve their livelihood with the effective use of technologies. The project used Web and Mobile (SMS) enabled systems. The Green Lanka project was sponsored by the Information Communication Technology Agency (ICTA) of Sri Lanka under the Institutional Capacity Building Programme (ICBP) grant scheme which was sponsored by the World Bank. Six hundred families in Wilgamuwa village participated in the project activities. The project was designed, executed and studied through an Action Research approach. The lessons learned through the project activities provide an important understanding of the complex interaction between different stakeholders in the process of implementation of ICT enabled solutions within digitally divided societies. The paper analyses the processes used to reduce the resistance to change and improved involvement of farmer communities in ICT enabled projects. It also analyses the interaction between stakeholders involved in design and implementation of the project activities to improve the chances of project success.

Resources for improving journalists' understanding of the economic and financial parameters of Australia's agricultural and commodity producers

The research addresses how an understanding of the fundamentals of economics will better inform general journalists who report on issues or events affecting rural and regional Australia. The research draws on practice-based experience of the author, formal economics studies, interviews with news editors from Australian television news organisations, and interviews from leading economists. A guidebook has also been written to help journalists apply economic theories to their reporting. The guidebook enables reporters to think strategically and consider the 'big picture' when they inform society about policies, commodity trade, the environment, or any issues involving rural and regional Australia.

Rural masculinities and the internalisation of violence in agricultural communities

This article is based on research we conducted in two agricultural communities as part of a broader study that included mining communities in rural Australia. The data from the agricultural locations tell a different story to that of the mining communities. In the latter, alcohol-fuelled, male-on-male assaults in public places caused considerable anxiety among informants. By contrast, people in the agricultural communities seemed more troubled by hidden violent harms which were largely privatised and individualised, including self-harm, suicide, isolation and threats to men’s general wellbeing and mental health; domestic violence; and other forms of violence largely unreported and thus unacknowledged within the wider community (including sexual assault and bullying linked to homophobia). We argue one reason for the different pattern in the agricultural communities is the decline of pub(lic) masculinity, and with this, the increasing isolation of rural men and the increasing propensity to internalise violence. We argue that the relatively high rates of suicide in agricultural communities experiencing rural decline are symptomatic of the internalisation of violence.

Review essay : Crime, risk and money : "The Currency of Justice : Fines and Damages in Consumer Societies" and "Crime and Risk", both by Pat O'Malley

Sharing some closely related themes and a common theoretical orientation based on the governmentality analytic, these are nevertheless two very different contributions to criminological knowledge and theory. The first, The Currency of Justice: Fines and Damages in Consumer Societies (COJ), is a sustained and highly original analysis of that most pervasive yet overlooked feature of modern legal orders; their reliance on monetary sanctions. Crime and Risk (CAR), on the other hand, is a short synoptic overview of the many dimensions and trajectories of risk in contemporary debate and practice, both the practices of crime and the governance of crime. It is one of the first in a new series by Sage, 'Compact Criminology', in which authors survey in little more than a hundred pages some current field of debate. With this small gem, Pat O'Malley has set the bar very high for those who follow. For all its brevity, CAR traverses a massive expanse of research, debates and issues, while also opening up new and challenging questions around the politics of risk and the relationship between criminal risk-taking and the governance of risk and crime. The two books draw together various threads of O'Malley's rich body of work on these issues, and once again demonstrate that he is one of the foremost international scholars of risk inside and outside criminology.