How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism of coastal systems. In fact, longterm changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical data were assigned to the AD 1755 eventwith support of sedimentological and age estimation results. Furthermore, these features allowed the calibration of the simulation settings to reconstruct the local conditions and establish the run-up range of the AD 1755 tsunami when it hit this coast (6– 8 m above mean sea level). Our work highlights the usefulness of erosional imprints preserved in the sediment record to interpret the impact of the extreme events on sand barriers

Estimation of the abundance of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, by age groups and regions within the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Monthly estimates of the abundance of yellowfin tuna by age groups and regions within the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1970-1988 are made, using purse-seine catch rates, length-frequency samples, and results from cohort analysis. The numbers of individuals caught of each age group in each logged purse-seine set are estimated, using the tonnage from that set and length-frequency distribution from the "nearest" length-frequency sample(s). Nearest refers to the closest length frequency sample(s) to the purse-seine set in time, distance, and set type (dolphin associated, floating object associated, skipjack associated, none of these, and some combinations). Catch rates are initially calculated as the estimated number of individuals of the age group caught per hour of searching. Then, to remove the effects of set type and vessel speed, they are standardized, using separate weiznted generalized linear models for each age group. The standardized catch rates at the center of each 2.5 0 quadrangle-month are estimated, using locally-weighted least-squares regressions on latitude, longitude and date, and then combined into larger regions. Catch rates within these regions are converted to numbers of yellowfin, using the mean age composition from cohort analysis. The variances of the abundance estimates within regions are large for 0-, 1-, and 5-year-olds, but small for 1.5- to 4-year-olds, except during periods of low fishing activity. Mean annual catch rate estimates for the entire eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly positively correlated with mean abundance estimates from cohort analysis for age groups ranging from 1.5 to 4 years old. Catch-rate indices of abundance by age are expected to be useful in conjunction with data on reproductive biology to estimate total egg production within regions. The estimates may also be useful in understanding geographic and temporal variations in age-specific availability to purse seiners, as well as age-specific movements. SPANISH: Se calculan estimaciones mensuales de la abundancia del atún aleta amarilla por grupos de edad y regiones en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1970-1988, usando tasas de captura cerquera, muestras de frecuencia de talla, y los resultados del análisis de cohortes. Se estima el número de individuos capturados de cada grupo de edad en cada lance cerquero registrado, usando el tonelaje del lance en cuestión y la distribución de frecuencia de talla de la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla "más cercana/s)," "Más cercana" significa la(s) muestra(s) de frecuencia de talla más parecida(s) al lance cerquero en cuanto a fecha, distancia, y tipo de lance (asociado con delfines, con objeto flotante, con barrilete, con ninguno de éstos, y algunas combinaciones). Se calculan inicialmente las tasas de captura como el número estimado de individuos del grupo de edad capturado por hora de búsqueda. A continuación, para eliminar los efectos del tipo de lance y la velocidad del barco, se estandardizan dichas tasas, usando un modelo lineal generalizado ponderado, para cada grupo por separado. Se estima la tasa de captura estandardizada al centro de cada cuadrángulo de 2.5°-mes, usando regresiones de mínimos cuadrados ponderados localmente por latitud, longitud, y fecha, y entonces combinándolas en regiones mayores. Se convierten las tasas de captura dentro de estas regiones en números de aletas amarillas individuales, usando el número promedio por edad proveniente del análisis de cohortes. Las varianzas de las estimaciones de la abundancia dentro de las regiones son grandes para los peces de O, 1, Y5 años de edad, pero pequeñas para aquellos de entre 1.5 Y4 años de edad, excepto durante períodos de poca actividad pesquera. Las estimaciones de la tasa de captura media anual para todo el Océano Pacífico oriental están correlacionadas positivamente de forma significativa con las estimaciones de la abundancia media del análisis de las cohortes para los grupos de edad de entre 1.5 y 4 años. Se espera que los índices de abundancia por edad basados en las tasas de captura sean útiles, en conjunto con datos de la biología reproductiva, para estimar la producción total de huevos por regiones. Las estimaciones podrían asimismo ser útiles para la comprensión de las variaciones geográficas y temporales de la disponibilidad específica por edad a los barcos cerqueros, y también las migraciones específicas por edad. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

Age- or length-based methods of growth estimation. What drives the choice?

Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Is there an age cutoff to apply adult formulas for GFR estimation in children?

BACKGROUND Estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using a common formula for both adult and pediatric populations is challenging. Using inulin clearances (iGFRs), this study aims to investigate the existence of a precise age cutoff beyond which the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI), or the Cockroft-Gault (CG) formulas, can be applied with acceptable precision. Performance of the new Schwartz formula according to age is also evaluated. METHOD We compared 503 iGFRs for 503 children aged between 33 months and 18 years to eGFRs. To define the most precise age cutoff value for each formula, a circular binary segmentation method analyzing the formulas' bias values according to the children's ages was performed. Bias was defined by the difference between iGFRs and eGFRs. To validate the identified cutoff, 30% accuracy was calculated. RESULTS For MDRD, CKD-EPI and CG, the best age cutoff was ≥14.3, ≥14.2 and ≤10.8 years, respectively. The lowest mean bias and highest accuracy were -17.11 and 64.7% for MDRD, 27.4 and 51% for CKD-EPI, and 8.31 and 77.2% for CG. The Schwartz formula showed the best performance below the age of 10.9 years. CONCLUSION For the MDRD and CKD-EPI formulas, the mean bias values decreased with increasing child age and these formulas were more accurate beyond an age cutoff of 14.3 and 14.2 years, respectively. For the CG and Schwartz formulas, the lowest mean bias values and the best accuracies were below an age cutoff of 10.8 and 10.9 years, respectively. Nevertheless, the accuracies of the formulas were still below the National Kidney Foundation Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative target to be validated in these age groups and, therefore, none of these formulas can be used to estimate GFR in children and adolescent populations.

Estimation of reference values for dioxin, furan, and PCB congener concentrations for the Australian population

Population-representative data for dioxin and PCB congener concentrations are available for the Australian population based on measurements in age- and gender-specific serum pools.1 Such data provide a basis for characterizing the mean concentrations of these compounds in the population, but do not provide information on the inter-individual variation in serum concentrations that may exist in the population within an age- and gender-specific group. Such variation may occur due to inter-individual differences in long-term exposure levels or elimination rates. Reference values are estimates of upper percentiles (often the 95th percentile) of measured values in a defined population that can be used to evaluate data from individuals in the population in order to identify concentrations that are elevated, for example, from occupational exposures.2 The objective of this analysis is to estimate reference values corresponding to the 95th percentile (RV95s) for Australia on an age-specific basis for individual dioxin-like congeners based on measurements in serum pools from Toms and Mueller (2010).

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remains difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to non-availability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n= 2220; 36% females; age 18-79 y) representing a wide range of body mass index (14-44 kg/m2) participated in this study. Their LBM including ALST was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height and weight explained > 90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of SFTs) increased the explained variation by 5-8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA measured LBM and ALST accurately as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively) as well as good agreement by Bland Altman analyses. These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition.

Age-dependence of the average and equivalent refractive indices of the crystalline lens

Lens average and equivalent refractive indices are required for purposes such as lens thickness estimation and optical modeling. We modeled the refractive index gradient as a power function of the normalized distance from lens center. Average index along the lens axis was estimated by integration. Equivalent index was estimated by raytracing through a model eye to establish ocular refraction, and then backward raytracing to determine the constant refractive index yielding the same refraction. Assuming center and edge indices remained constant with age, at 1.415 and 1.37 respectively, average axial refractive index increased (1.408 to 1.411) and equivalent index decreased (1.425 to 1.420) with age increase from 20 to 70 years. These values agree well with experimental estimates based on different techniques, although the latter show considerable scatter. The simple model of index gradient gives reasonable estimates of average and equivalent lens indices, although refinements in modeling and measurements are required.

Early mathematical learning: Number processing skills and executive function at 5 and 8 years of age

This research investigated differences and associations in performance in number processing and executive function for children attending primary school in a large Australian metropolitan city. In a cross-sectional study, performance of 25 children in the first full-time year of school, (Prep; mean age = 5.5 years) and 21 children in Year 3 (mean age = 8.5 years) completed three number processing tasks and three executive function tasks. Year 3 children consistently outperformed the Prep year children on measures of accuracy and reaction time, on the tasks of number comparison, calculation, shifting, and inhibition but not on number line estimation. The components of executive function (shifting, inhibition, and working memory) showed different patterns of correlation to performance on number processing tasks across the early years of school. Findings could be used to enhance teachers’ understanding about the role of the cognitive processes employed by children in numeracy learning, and so inform teachers’ classroom practices.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).