Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

Environmental education research in southern Africa: dilemmas of interpretation

These multiple framings of our reflections on environmental education research in southern Africa are written as dilemmas of interpretation that aim to disrupt any temptation to generalise or essentialise its qualities and characteristics. Recognising that research is a textual practice, we use J. M. Coetzee's portrayal of the dilemmas faced by African novelists as a point of departure in reflecting on the changing landscape of environmental education research in southern Africa as we have experienced it over six years. We provide readings framed by reference to post-colonialism, changing epistemologies and methodologies, contexts of transformation and tension, the influence of international organisations such as the United Nations and its instrumentalities, and concerns about human rights and accountability. We conclude by affirming the post-colonialist trajectories of environmental education research in southern Africa and speculating on the distinctive possibilities that recovering ubuntu (an ethic of sharing and hospitality) might offer to researchers in this region.

Precipitation chemistry in semi-arid areas of Southern Africa: A case study of a rural and an industrial site

Experimental data on the precipitation chemistry in the semi-arid savanna of South Africa is presented in this paper. A total of 901 rainwater samples were collected with automatic wet-only samplers at a rural site, Louis Trichardt, and at an industrial site, Amersfoort, from July 1986 to June 1999. The chemical composition of precipitation was analysed for seven inorganic and two organic ions, using ion chromatography. The most abundant ion was SO(4)(2-) and a large proportion of the precipitation is acidic, with 98% of samples at Amersfoort and 94% at Louis Trichardt having a pH below 5.6 ( average pH of 4.4 and 4.9, respectively). This acidity results from a mixture of mineral and organic acids, with mineral acids being the primary contributors to the precipitation acidity in Amersfoort, while at Louis Trichardt, organic and mineral acids contribute equal amounts of acidity. It was found that the composition of rainwater is controlled by five sources: marine, terrigenous, nitrogenous, biomass burning and anthropogenic sources. The relative contributions of these sources at the two sites were calculated. Anthropogenic sources dominate at Amersfoort and biomass burning at Louis Trichardt. Most ions exhibit a seasonal pattern at Louis Trichardt, with the highest concentrations occurring during the austral spring as a result of agricultural activities and biomass combustion, while at Amersfoort it is less pronounced due to the dominance of relatively constant industrial emissions. The results are compared to observations from other African regions.

Comparing genetic and linguistic diversity in African populations with a focus on the Khoisan of southern Africa

The interaction between disciplines in the study of human population history is of primary importance, profiting from the biological and cultural characteristics of humankind. In fact, data from genetics, linguistics, archaeology and cultural anthropology can be combined to allow for a broader research perspective. This multidisciplinary approach is here applied to the study of the prehistory of sub-Saharan African populations: in this continent, where Homo sapiens originally started his evolution and diversification, the understanding of the patterns of human variation has a crucial relevance. For this dissertation, molecular data is interpreted and complemented with a major contribution from linguistics: linguistic data are compared to the genetic data and the research questions are contextualized within a linguistic perspective. In the four articles proposed, we analyze Y chromosome SNPs and STRs profiles and full mtDNA genomes on a representative number of samples to investigate key questions of African human variability. Some of these questions address i) the amount of genetic variation on a continental scale and the effects of the widespread migration of Bantu speakers, ii) the extent of ancient population structure, which has been lost in present day populations, iii) the colonization of the southern edge of the continent together with the degree of population contact/replacement, and iv) the prehistory of the diverse Khoisan ethnolinguistic groups, who were traditionally understudied despite representing one of the most ancient divergences of modern human phylogeny. Our results uncover a deep level of genetic structure within the continent and a multilayered pattern of contact between populations. These case studies represent a valuable contribution to the debate on our prehistory and open up further research threads.

Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa

Many HIV-infected children in Southern Africa have been started on antiretroviral therapy (ART), but loss to follow up (LTFU) can be substantial. We analyzed mortality in children retained in care and in all children starting ART, taking LTFU into account.

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: A mathematical modelling analysis

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programs in rural Southern Africa

Data on outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in rural sub-Saharan African are scarce. We describe early losses and long-term outcomes in 6 rural programs in Southern Africa with limited access to viral load monitoring and second-line ART.

Accuracy of immunological criteria for identifying virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy - The IeDEA Southern Africa Collaboration

Objectives  To determine the diagnostic accuracy of World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 and 2006 as well as United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 definitions of immunological failure for identifying virological failure (VF) in children on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Incomplete virological suppression (IVS) was defined as failure to achieve ≥1 HIV-RNA ≤400 copies/ml between 6 and 15 months on ART and viral rebound (VR) as confirmed HIV-RNA ≥5000 copies/ml in a child on ART for ≥18 months who had achieved suppression during the first year on treatment. Results  Among 3115 children [median (interquartile range) age 48 (20-84) months at ART initiation] on treatment for ≥1 year, sensitivity of immunological criteria for IVS was 10%, 6% and 26% for WHO 2006, WHO 2010 and DHHS 2008 criteria, respectively. The corresponding positive predictive values (PPV) were 31%, 20% and 20%. Diagnostic accuracy for VR was determined in 2513 children with ≥18 months of follow-up and virological suppression during the first year on ART with sensitivity of 5% (WHO 2006/2010) and 27% (DHHS 2008). PPV results were 42% (WHO 2010), 43% (WHO 2006) and 20% (DHHS 2008). Conclusion  Current immunological criteria are unable to correctly identify children failing ART virologically. Improved access to viral load testing is needed to reliably identify VF in children.