Lessons from the northern hake long-term management plan: Could the economic assessment have accepted it?

An economic expert working group (STECF/SGBRE-07-05) was convened in 2007 for evaluating the potential economic consequences of a Long-Term Management Plan for the northern hake. Analyzing all the scenarios proposed by biological assessment, they found that keeping the F in the status quo level was the best policy in terms of net present values for both yield and profits. This result is counter intuitive because it may indicate that effort costs do no affect the economic reference points. However, it is well accepted that the inclusion of costs affects negatively the economic reference points. In this paper, applying a dynamic agestructured model to the northern hake, we show that the optimal fishing mortality that maximizes the net present value of profits is lower than Fmax.

Why Economists Reject Long-Term Fisheries Management Plans?

Most fisheries agencies conduct biological and economic assessments independently. This independent conduct may lead to situations in which economists reject management plans proposed by biologists. The objective of this study is to show how to find optimal strategies that may satisfy biologists and economists' conditions. In particular we characterize optimal fishing trajectories that maximize the present value of a discounted economic indicator taking into account the age-structure of the population as in stock assessment methodologies. This approach is applied to the Northern Stock of Hake. Our main empirical findings are: i) Optimal policy may be far away from any of the classical scenarios proposed by biologists, ii) The more the future is discounted, the higher the likelihood of finding contradictions among scenarios proposed by biologists and conclusions from economic analysis, iii) Optimal management reduces the risk of the stock falling under precautionary levels, especially if the future is not discounted to much, and iv) Optimal stationary fishing rate may be very different depending on the economic indicator used as reference.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Artisanal canoe fishing industry of the Rivers State: its economic viability and investment potentials

Consequent upon the present national call in Nigeria for all to go back to agriculture including fishing, most retrenched workers and unemployed youths from the riverine areas are taking up fishing as a legitimate and gainful livelihood. To sustain this tempo and attract more investment, the economic viability of such projects must be known. This study is an attempt to document the profitability and investment potential of artisanal canoe fishing. Socio-economic information including catches, operational cost and returns were obtained through a personal interview questionnaire survey of 240 randomly selected artisanal canoe fishermen from Bonny, Brass and Degema Local Government Areas (LGA) of the State and analyzed. With an investment cost of about 8,135, 8,490 and 6,571 and operation cost of 750, 776 and 627, the analysis showed an average monthly gross income of 1,869, 3,221 and 1,775 for the three local government areas respectively. A benefit-cost-ratio of 1:8, net present value of 400, 603 and internal rate of return greater than 50% were obtained. Since capital invested in fisheries is not tied up for long before benefits start flowing, coupled with the high IRR, it is concluded that artisanal canoe fishing would be an economically viable venture if well managed

Economic analysis of utilizing Kainji gas kiln for fish smoking in the Kainji Lake Basin of Nigeria

Marketing of smoked fish in the Kainji Lake Basin (Nigeria) has been found to be complex, traditional and inefficient. It is also said to be limited in scope due to poor handling and processing techniques, lack of storage facilities and inadequate marketing informations. The invention of Kainji gas kiln has been found suitable to overcoming poor handling and processing techniques. This paper discusses the feasibility of operating Kainji gas kiln commercially supported with adequate storage facilities and competent management hands. The financial indicators of net present value (NPV), 47,481.11, Internal rate of return (IRR) 24% and payback period of 2.3 years that are calculated confirmed that the commercial use of Kainji gas kiln is indeed profitably feasible

Adapting to climate change: Combining economics and geomorphology in coastal policy

How is climate change affecting our coastal environment? How can coastal communities adapt to sea level rise and increased storm risk? These questions have garnered tremendous interest from scientists and policy makers alike, as the dynamic coastal environment is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over half the world population lives and works in a coastal zone less than 120 miles wide, thereby being continuously affected by the changes in the coastal environment [6]. Housing markets are directly influenced by the physical processes that govern coastal systems. Beach towns like Oak Island in North Carolina (NC) face severe erosion, and the tax assesed value of one coastal property fell by 93% in 2007 [9]. With almost ninety percent of the sandy beaches in the US facing moderate to severe erosion [8], coastal communities often intervene to stabilize the shoreline and hold back the sea in order to protect coastal property and infrastructure. Beach nourishment, which is the process of rebuilding a beach by periodically replacing an eroding section of the beach with sand dredged from another location, is a policy for erosion control in many parts of the US Atlantic and Pacific coasts [3]. Beach nourishment projects in the United States are primarily federally funded and implemented by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) after a benefit-cost analysis. Benefits from beach nourishment include reduction in storm damage and recreational benefits from a wider beach. Costs would include the expected cost of construction, present value of periodic maintenance, and any external cost such as the environmental cost associated with a nourishment project (NOAA). Federal appropriations for nourishment totaled $787 million from 1995 to 2002 [10]. Human interventions to stabilize shorelines and physical coastal dynamics are strongly coupled. The value of the beach, in the form of storm protection and recreation amenities, is at least partly capitalized into property values. These beach values ultimately influence the benefit-cost analysis in support of shoreline stabilization policy, which, in turn, affects the shoreline dynamics. This paper explores the policy implications of this circularity. With a better understanding of the physical-economic feedbacks, policy makers can more effectively design climate change adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

An Alternative View of the US Price-Dividend Ratio Dynamics

As a necessary condition for the validity of the present value model, the price-dividend ratio must be stationary. However, significant market episodes seem to provide evidence of prices significantly drifting apart from dividends while other episodes show prices anchoring back to dividends. This paper investigates the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov- switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment towards a unique attractor is introduced. A three-regime model displays the best regime identification and reveals that the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are characterized by a stationary state featuring a slow reverting process to a relatively high attractor. Interestingly, the latter part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a stationary regime featuring a highly reverting process to the attractor. Finally, the post-Lehman Brothers episode of the subprime crisis can be classified into a temporary nonstationary regime.

Breaking the 400 ppm barrier: Physical and Social implications of the recent CO2 rise

6 p.

Rompiendo la barrera de las 400 ppm: implicaciones físicas y sociales del reciente aumento de CO2

6 p.

400 ppm-ko langa hautsi da: CO2-kontzentrazioaren igoeraren ondorio fisiko eta sozialak

6 p.

The Determinants of Energy Efficiency Investments in the U.S.

31 p.

Alternativas técnico produtivas para o aproveitamento do gás natural da camada pré-sal

As reservas brasileiras de petróleo e gás natural apresentarão um significativo crescimento a partir do desenvolvimento das reservas da camada do pré-sal. Segundo estimativas elaboradas pela EPE e pela EIA, nos próximos vinte anos, haverá um quadro de grande oferta de gás natural no país, com a oferta excedendo a demanda. Como o segmento de transporte do gás natural tem grande importância na formação do custo desse energético, uma tecnologia de transporte menos onerosa irá proporcionar um cenário mais vantajoso para a entrada do gás no mercado. A presente dissertação analisa duas tecnologias disponíveis para escoamento do gás natural da camada pré-sal gasoduto submarino e gás natural liquefeito embarcado e as possibilidades de utilização no mercado interno ou para ser exportado. De acordo com dados da Petrobras, foram utilizadas três rotas para escoar o gás do pré-sal. A metodologia Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) foi utilizada para analisar qual dos investimentos em transporte é mais viável economicamente. Os resultados mostraram que de acordo com as perspectivas de produção do gás natural no horizonte de tempo analisado as duas tecnologias serão viáveis, com o transporte por gasodutos a alternativa mais viável economicamente.

LDLR and PCSK9 Are Associated with the Presence of Antiphospholipid Antibodies and the Development of Thrombosis in aPLA Carriers

Introduction The identification of the genetic risk factors that could discriminate non-thrombotic from thrombotic antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLA) carriers will improve prognosis of these patients. Several human studies have shown the presence of aPLAs associated with atherosclerotic plaque, which is a known risk factor for thrombosis. Hence, in order to determine the implication of atherosclerosis in the risk of developing thrombosis in aPLA positive patients, we performed a genetic association study with 3 candidate genes, APOH, LDLR and PCSK9. Material & Methods For genetic association study we analyzed 190 aPLA carriers -100 with non-thrombotic events and 90 with thrombotic events-and 557 healthy controls. Analyses were performed by chi(2) test and were corrected by false discovery rate. To evaluate the functional implication of the newly established susceptibility loci, we performed expression analyses in 86 aPLA carrier individuals (43 with thrombotic manifestations and 43 without it) and in 45 healthy controls. Results Our results revealed significant associations after correction in SNPs located in LDLR gene with aPLA carriers and thrombotic aPLA carriers, when compared with healthy controls. The most significant association in LDLR gene was found between SNP rs129083082 and aPLA carriers in recessive model (adjusted P-value = 2.55 x 10(-3); OR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.49-3.21). Furthermore, our work detected significant allelic association after correction between thrombotic aPLA carriers and healthy controls in SNP rs562556 located in PCSK9 gene (adjusted P-value = 1.03 x 10(-2); OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.24-2.06). Expression level study showed significantly decreased expression level of LDLR gene in aPLA carriers (P-value < 0.0001; 95% CI 0.16-2.10; SE 0.38-1.27) in comparison to the control group. Discussion Our work has identified LDLR gene as a new susceptibility gene associated with the development of thrombosis in aPLA carriers, describing for the first time the deregulation of LDLR expression in individuals with aPLAs. Besides, thrombotic aPLA carriers also showed significant association with PCSK9 gene, a regulator of LDLR plasma levels. These results highlight the importance of atherosclerotic processes in the development of thrombosis in patients with aPLA.

Economics and management strategies for restocking sandfish in Vietnam

This paper assesses the costs and benefits of a proposed project for restocking sandfish (Holothuria scabra) in Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam. It identifies the key stakeholders, institutional framework, management and financing required for its implementation. The recommended management strategy includes a 50 percent harvest at optimum size. Limiting the number of boats fishing an area, possibly through licensing, can control the number of sandfish removed. The easiest way to prevent harvesting of undersized sandfish is to control the size of processed sandfish from processors. The potential benefits of restocking are shown by the rapid changes in selected indicators, particularly the net present value, the internal rate of return, and the benefit-cost ratio. Probability analysis is used to estimate the uncertainties in the project calculations. Based on a conservative estimate, the restocking of sandfish is expected to be profitable, although cost-benefit analyses are sensitive to the survival of restocked sandfish and their progeny, and the number of boats fishing for sandfish in the release area.

Simulated Economic Impact of TED Regulations on Selected Vessels in the Texas Shrimp Fishery

Shrimp fishermen trawling in the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic inadvertently capture and kill sea turtles which are classified as endangered species. Recent legislation requires the use of a Turtle Excluder Device(TED) which, when in place in the shrimp trawl, reduces sea turtle mortality. The impact of the TED on shrimp production is not known. This intermediate analysis of the TED regulations using an annual firm level simulation model indicated that the average Texas shrimp vessel had a low probability of being an economic success before regulations were enacted. An assumption that the TED regulations resulted in decreased production aggravated this condition and the change in Ending Net Worth and Net Present Value of Ending Net Worth before and after a TED was placed in the net was significant at the 5 percent level. However, the difference in the Internal Rate of Return for the TED and non-TED simulations was not significant unless the TED caused a substantial change in catch. This analysis did not allow for interactions between the fishermen in the shrimp industry, an assumption which could significantly alter the impact of TED use on the catch and earnings of the individual shrimp vessel.