Drought coping and adaptation strategies: Understanding adaptations to climate change in agro-pastoral livestock production in Makueni district, Kenya

Using drought as a lens, this article analyses how agro-pastoralists in Makueni district, Kenya adapt their livestock production to climate variability and change. Data were collected from a longitudinal survey of 127 agro-pastoral households. Approximately one-third of the households have inadequate feeds, and livestock diseases are major challenges during non-drought and drought periods. Agro-pastoralists’ responses to drought are reactive and mainly involve intensifying exploitation of resources and the commons. Proactive responses such as improving production resources are few. Poverty, limited responses to market dynamics and inadequate skills constrain adaptations. Many agro-pastoralists’ attachment to livestock deters livestock divestment, favouring disadvantageous sales that result in declining incomes. To improve adaptive capacity, interventions should expose agro-pastoralists to other forms of savings, incorporate agro-pastoralists as agents of change by building their capacity to provide extension services, and maintain infrastructure. Securing livestock mobility, pasture production and access is crucial under the variable social-ecological conditions.

Adapting public agricultural extension services to climate change: Insights from Kenya

This paper analyses the adaptiveness of the Public Agricultural Extension Services (PAES) to climate change. Existing literature, interviews and group discussions among PAES actors in larger Makueni district, Kenya, provided the data for the analyses. The findings show that the PAES already have various elements of adaptiveness in its policies, approaches and methods of extension provision. However, the hierarchical structure of the PAES does not augur well for self-organisation at local levels of extension provision, especially under conditions of abrupt change which climate change might trigger. Most importantly, adpativeness presupposes adaptive capacity but the lack of resources in terms of funding for extension, limited mobility of extension officers, the low extension staff/farmer ratio, the aging of extension staff and significant dependence on donor funding limits the adaptiveness of the PAES. Accordingly criteria and indicators were identified in literature with which an initial assessement of the adaptiiveneess of PAES was conducted. However this assessment framework needs to be improved and future steps will integrate more specific inputs from actors in PAES in order to make the framework operational.

Conservation Projects (ConPro) data base from The Nature Conservancy and others about the protected areas with analyzed Conservation Action Plans (CAP) before 2009 (Appendix 1) and after 2009 (Appendix 2)

It is widely recognized that climate change poses significant challenges to the conservation of biodiversity. The need of dealing with relatively rapid and uncertain environmental change calls for the enhancement of adaptive capacity of both biodiversity and conservation management systems. Under the hypothesis that most of the conventional biodiversity conservation tools do not sufficiently stimulate a dynamic protected area management, which takes rapid environmental change into account, we evaluated almost 900 of The Nature Conservancy's site-based conservation action plans. These were elaborated before a so-called climate clinic in 2009, an intensive revision of existing plans and a climate change training of the planning teams. We also compare these results with plans elaborated after the climate clinic. Before 2009, 20% of the CAPs employed the term "climate change" in their description of the site viability, and 45% identified key ecological attributes that are related to climate. 8% of the conservation strategies were directly or indirectly related to climate change adaptation. After 2009, a significantly higher percentage of plans took climate change into account. Our data show that many planning teams face difficulties in integrating climate change in their management and planning. However, technical guidance and concrete training can facilitate management teams learning processes. Arising new tools of adaptive conservation management that explicitly incorporate options for handling future scenarios, vulnerability analyses and risk management into the management process have the potential of further making protected area management more proactive and robust against change.

An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required.

Assessing forest response-type diversity to natural disturbances in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands = Evaluación de la diversidad de tipos de respuesta a perturbaciones naturales en la España peninsular e Islas Baleares

Disturbances shape forest ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and processes. In the Mediterranean Basin, changes in the disturbance regimes have been predicted to occur in the next future with a higher occurrence of extreme events of drought, wildfire, and – to a lesser extent – windstorm. Woody species are the main elements defining the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. Recently, response-type diversity has been pointed out as an appropriate indicator of ecosystems resilience. For this, we have elaborated a complete response-trait database for the tree and shrubby species considered in the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory (3SNFI). In the database, the presence or absence of nine response traits associated to drought, fire, and wind were assigned to each species. The database reflected the lack of information about some important traits (in particular for shrubby species) and allowed to determine those traits most widely distributed. The information contained in the database was then used to assess a relative index of forest resilience to these disturbances calculated from the abundance of response traits and the species redundancy for each plot of the 3SNFI; considering both tree and shrubby species. In general, few plots showed high values of the resilience index, probably because some traits were scarcely presented in the species and also because most plots presented very few species. The cartographic representation of the index showed low values for the stands located in mountainous ranges, which are mostly composed by species typical from central Europe. In the other side, Eucalyptus plantations in Galicia appeared as one thee the most resilient ecosystems, due to its higher adaptive capacity to persist after the occurrence of drought, fire, and windstorm events. We conclude that the response traits database can constitute a useful tool for forest management and planning and for future research to enhance the forest resilience.

Viticultura y Cambio Climático en España: Vulnerabilidad en las distintas regiones y estrategias de adaptación frente al desarrollo de nuevas políticas

El presente trabajo realiza un análisis de la vulnerabilidad de la viticultura en España ante el Cambio Climático que contribuya a la mejora de la capacidad de respuesta del sector vitivinícola a la hora de afrontar los retos de la globalización. Para ello se analiza el impacto que puede tener el Cambio Climático en primer lugar sobre determinados riesgos ocasionados por eventos climáticos adversos relacionados con extremos climáticos y en segundo lugar, sobre los principales índices agro-climáticos definidos en el Sistema de Clasificación Climática Multicriterio Geoviticultura (MCGG), que permiten clasificar las zonas desde un punto de vista de su potencial climático. Para el estudio de las condiciones climáticas se han utilizado los escenarios de Cambio Climático regionalizados del proyecto ESCENA, desarrollados dentro del Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (PNACC) con el fin de promover iniciativas de anticipación y respuesta al Cambio Climático hasta el año 2050. Como parte clave del estudio de la vulnerabilidad, en segundo lugar se miden las necesidades de adaptación para 56 Denominaciones de Origen Protegidas, definidas por los impactos y de acuerdo con un análisis de sensibilidad desarrollado en este trabajo. De este análisis se desprende que los esfuerzos de adaptación se deberían centrar en el mantenimiento de la calidad sobre todo para mejorar las condiciones en la época de maduración en los viñedos de la mitad norte, mientras que en las zonas de la mitad sur y del arco mediterráneo, además deberían buscar mantener la productividad en la viticultura. Los esfuerzos deberían ser más intensos en esta zona sur y también estarían sujetos a más limitaciones, ya que por ejemplo el riego, que podría llegar a ser casi obligatorio para mantener el cultivo, se enfrentaría a un contexto de mayor competencia y escasez de recursos hídricos. La capacidad de afrontar estas necesidades de adaptación determinará la vulnerabilidad del viñedo en cada zona en el futuro. Esta capacidad está definida por las propias necesidades y una serie de condicionantes sociales y de limitaciones legales, como las impuestas por las propias Denominaciones de Origen, o medioambientales, como la limitación del uso de agua. El desarrollo de estrategias que aseguren una utilización sostenible de los recursos hídricos, así como el apoyo de las Administraciones dentro de la nueva Política Agraria Común (PAC) pueden mejorar esta capacidad de adaptación y con ello disminuir la vulnerabilidad. ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the vulnerability of viticulture in Spain on Climate Change in order to improve the adaptive capacity of the wine sector to meet the diverse challenges of globalization. The risks to quality and quantity are explored by considering bioclimatic indices with specific emphasis on the Protected Designation of Origin areas that produce the premium winegrapes. The Indices selected represents risks caused by adverse climatic events related to climate extremes, and requirements of varieties and vintage quality in the case of those used in the Multicriteria Climatic Classification System. (MCCS). To study the climatic conditions, an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of ESCENA project, developed in the framework of the Spanish Plan for Regional Climate Change Scenarios (PNACC-2012) have been used As a key part of the study of vulnerability risks and opportunities are linked to adaptation needs across the Spanish territory. Adaptation efforts are calculated as proportional to the magnitude of change and according to a sensitivity analysis for 56 protected designations of origin. This analysis shows that adaptation efforts should focus on improving conditions in the ripening period to maintain quality in the vineyards of the northern half of Iberian Peninsula, while in areas of the southern half and in the Mediterranean basin, also should seek to maintain productivity of viticulture. Therefore, efforts should be more intense in the Southern and Eastern part, and may also be subject to other limitations, such as irrigation, which could become almost mandatory to keep growing, would face a context of increased competition and lack of resources water. The ability to meet these needs will determine the vulnerability of the vineyard in each region in the future. This capability is defined also by a number of social factors and legal limitations such as environmental regulations, limited water resources or those imposed by their own Designation of Origin. The development of strategies to ensure sustainable use of water resources and the support schemes in the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) can improve the resilience and thus reduce vulnerability.

Quando a água sobe: análise da capacidade adaptativa de moradores do Jardim Pantanal expostos às enchentes

A capacidade adaptativa às enchentes diz respeito à capacidade inerente de indivíduos ou de um sistema de se ajustar aos efeitos desse evento e lidar com ele, de modo a moderar seus danos potenciais. A cidade de São Paulo é particularmente vulnerável às enchentes devido ao seu histórico de uso e ocupação do solo. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a capacidade adaptativa a partir da realidade local de moradores do Jardim Pantanal, localizado na zona leste do município de São Paulo às várzeas do rio Tietê, a fim de propor ações que possam contribuir na construção dessa capacidade. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida por meio de levantamento documental e bibliográfico, entrevistas semiestruturadas, análise das transcrições, codificação, e categorização dos dados. As capacidades adaptativas genérica e específica nos níveis organizacionais individual e de sistema são baixas, e entre os determinantes da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes os recursos financeiros, a vulnerabilidade urbana e as estratégias de enfrentamento foram considerados os mais importantes, em nível individual. A falta de recursos, a irregularidade de rendimentos e a ausência de diversificação na fonte de renda limitam as opções disponíveis de moradia em áreas regulares e dificultam a mobilização de recursos para a adoção de medidas preventivas e de recuperação pós-evento. A vulnerabilidade urbana expressa-se pela ocupação em área irregular, onde não são realizados investimentos em medidas de infraestrutura por parte dos moradores, que poderiam reduzir a exposição aos impactos das enchentes, pois não se sabe até quando poderão permanecer na área. As estratégias de enfrentamento demonstram ter caráter apenas reativo sem qualquer planejamento, sendo decididas e tomadas reativamente quando a água sobe. Tendo em vista os aspectos observados, a construção da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes no Jardim Pantanal requer: a) entrosamento entre as medidas de adaptação autônomas (do indivíduo) e as planejadas (do sistema); b) ações de adaptação antecipatórias, mais do que responsivas; e c) medidas de adaptação de curto e longo prazos que considerem as vulnerabilidades que surgiram durante o período de adaptação.

Evidence of different thermoregulatory mechanisms between two sympatric Scarabaeus species using infrared thermography and micro-computer tomography

In endotherms insects, the thermoregulatory mechanisms modulate heat transfer from the thorax to the abdomen to avoid overheating or cooling in order to obtain a prolonged flight performance. Scarabaeus sacer and S. cicatricosus, two sympatric species with the same habitat and food preferences, showed daily temporal segregation with S. cicatricosus being more active during warmer hours of the day in opposition to S. sacer who avoid it. In the case of S. sacer, their endothermy pattern suggested an adaptive capacity for thorax heat retention. In S. cicatricosus, an active ‘heat exchanger’ mechanism was suggested. However, no empirical evidence had been documented until now. Thermographic sequences recorded during flight performance showed evidence of the existence of both thermoregulatory mechanisms. In S. sacer, infrared sequences showed a possible heat insulator (passive thermal window), which prevents heat transfer from meso- and metathorax to the abdomen during flight. In S. cicatricosus, infrared sequences revealed clear and effective heat flow between the thorax and abdomen (abdominal heat transfer) that should be considered the main mechanism of thermoregulation. This was related to a subsequent increase in abdominal pumping (as a cooling mechanism) during flight. Computer microtomography scanning, anatomical dissections and internal air volume measurements showed two possible heat retention mechanisms for S. sacer; the abdominal air sacs and the development of the internal abdominal sternites that could explain the thermoregulation between thorax and abdomen. Our results suggest that interspecific interactions between sympatric species are regulated by very different mechanisms. These mechanisms create unique thermal niches for the different species, thereby preventing competition and modulating spatio-temporal distribution and the composition of dung beetle assemblages.

Confidentiala "Mode 3" Systems Approach for Knowledge Creation, Diffusion and Use: Towards a 21st Century Fractal Innovation Ecosystem. ACES Working Paper (Report) No. 4, 2007

"Mode 3" allows and emphasizes the co-existence and co-evolution of different knowledge and innovation paradigms: the competitiveness and superiority of a knowledge system is highly determined by its adaptive capacity to combine and integrate different knowledge and innovation modes via co-evolution, co-specialization and coopetition [sic] of knowledge stock and flow dynamics. What results is an emerging fractal knowledge and innovation ecosystem, well-configured for the knowledge economy and society. The intrinsic litmus test of the capacity of such an ecosystem to survive and prosper in the context of continually glocalizing [sic] and intensifying competition represents the ultimate competitiveness benchmark with regards to the robustness and quality of the ecosystem's knowledge and innovation architecture and topology.

Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.

Integrated Performance Assessment of Engineering Projects at the Interface of Emergent Properties and Uncertainty

Investigation of the performance of engineering project organizations is critical for understanding and eliminating inefficiencies in today’s dynamic global markets. The existing theoretical frameworks consider project organizations as monolithic systems and attribute the performance of project organizations to the characteristics of the constituents. However, project organizations consist of complex interdependent networks of agents, information, and resources whose interactions give rise to emergent properties that affect the overall performance of project organizations. Yet, our understanding of the emergent properties in project organizations and their impact on project performance is rather limited. This limitation is one of the major barriers towards creation of integrated theories of performance assessment in project organizations. The objective of this paper is to investigate the emergent properties that affect the ability of project organization to cope with uncertainty. Based on the theories of complex systems, we propose and test a novel framework in which the likelihood of performance variations in project organizations could be investigated based on the environment of uncertainty (i.e., static complexity, dynamic complexity, and external source of disruption) as well as the emergent properties (i.e., absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity) of project organizations. The existence and significance of different dimensions of the environment of uncertainty and emergent properties in the proposed framework are tested based on the analysis of the information collected from interviews with senior project managers in the construction industry. The outcomes of this study provide a novel theoretical lens for proactive bottom-up investigation of performance in project organizations at the interface of emergent properties and uncertainty

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto

Climate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritizing their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio-economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concerns.

Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto

Climate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritising their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio- economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concerns

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policymakers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.