Urban climates and global climate change

Cities and global climate change are closely linked: cities are where the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions take place through the consumption of fossil fuels; they are where an increasing proportion of the world’s people live; and they also generate their own climate – commonly characterized by the urban heat island. In this way, understanding the way cities affect the cycling of energy, water, and carbon to create an urban climate is a key element of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially in the context of rising global temperatures and deteriorating air quality in many cities. As climate models resolve finer spatial-scales, they will need to represent those areas in which more than 50% of the world’s population already live to provide climate projections that are of greater use to planning and decision-making. Finally, many of the processes that are instrumental in determining urban climate are the same factors leading to global anthropogenic climate change, namely regional-scale land-use changes; increased energy use; and increased emissions of climatically-relevant atmospheric constituents. Cities are therefore both a case study for understanding, and an agent in mitigating, anthropogenic climate change. This chapter reviews and summarizes the current state of understanding of the physical basis of urban climates, as well as our ability to represent these in models. We argue that addressing the challenges of managing urban environments in a changing climate requires understanding the energy, water, and carbon balances for an urban landscape and, importantly, their interactions and feedbacks, together with their links to human behaviour and controls. We conclude with some suggestions for where further research is needed.

Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

O trabalho doméstico de adolescentes: naturalização da exclusão e submissão

This work demonstrates important aspects of domestic work performed by adolescents between 16 and 18 years in residential spaces. This is to highlight the process of naturalization of invisibility, their source of insecurity and social exclusion, in view of the strong personal relationship of domination. Pointing out the relations of pseudo-affection that can obscure the exploitation of domestic labor. Highlight a preliminary discussion on the composition of social relations embedded in the context of domestic work, with emphasis on reflection on the condition of subordination of young domestic workers as a result of a process of socialization consists of relations of domination - gender and social class, resulting in formation of social identity-forming negative stigma. This paper results from a survey of the work of young maids, held in the city of Aracaju, whose main objective was to understand how they operated the differences and inequalities in the relations of domestic based, including information on adolescents' own. Fieldwork was conducted from August 2009 to January 2010 and data collection techniques were used oral history / life history, questionnaires and use of semi-structured interviews, as well as secondary data from PNAD / IBGE which formed the basis of comparative national situation and local context. It emphasizes the links of domestic work involving teenagers question the lifestyles of working class who are confronted by the various "systems" for each home, which leads to the development of adaptation strategies that make possible the coexistence of a stranger the house at the other. It focuses on how the work goes into their lives in terms of socialization offered by working families to their children's, and as this class habitus is adequate for the job market in domestic employment through a socialization process that sometimes opposes and now reinforces the practices and values seized in family socialization

A agricultura familiar do Seridó potiguar: vulnerabilidade, percepção e adaptação às mudanças climáticas

At the semiarid regions of developing countries the rural population has always been vulnerable to the climatic variations e its consequences. The effects of the semiarid climate, together with other biophysics, social and political-economic factors, impair the agricultural production, generating a situation of food insecurity and poverty in the rural areas. With the occurrence of climate change, natural resources of the semiarid regions can became scarcer, what would directly affect the agricultural production and those who depend on it. Therefore, the present study sought to study one of the most susceptible areas to the effects of the semiarid climate and desertification of Rio Grande do Norte, the potiguar s Serido. The study aimed to analyze the socioeconomic and environmental factors that put farmers in a position of vulnerability to the effects of climate; assess their perceptions about climate variations that have already occurred and their knowledge about climate change and global warming, also to identify which adaptation strategies to climate they have adopted at the rural establishment. The survey was conducted in 29 communities of four counties of the potiguar s Serido Caico, Parelhas, Lagoa Nova and Acari. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local leaders and 241 questionnaires were applied with the family farmers. It was found that in addition to environmental factors such as the scarcity of water resources and climatic conditions, other factors such as the environmental degradation, the small size of the properties, the lack of technical assistance and financial resources and also the low education levels reduce the resilience capacity of family farming to the effects of the Semiarid climate. With the occurrence of climate change, the challenges for family farming at Serido will intensify. If farmers cannot adapt, the impacts may preclude this category of agricultural production causing serious harm to food security and further increasing the vulnerability situation of these populations. Although the farmers perceived changes in climate, the lack resources and information appears as the main reasons preventing the adoption of adaptation strategies. The lack of knowledge about climate change and global warming and the impacts that these phenomena may cause are also limiting factors for adaptation. It is therefore essential to identify the factors that influence the adoption of adaptation strategies, and seek alternatives to living with the semiarid that can strengthen the resilience of family farming and social reproduction that allow agricultural segment, even in a climate change scenario

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration increases rice blast severity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O papel do brincar na apropriação da linguagem escrita

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector in the Caribbean

The main objective of the present study was to determine the value of impacts due to climate change on the agricultural sector in the Caribbean under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B2 scenarios. More specifically, the study aimed to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate agricultural output and other key agricultural indicators. Further, the study forecast changes in income for agricultural output for key subsectors under the A2 and B2 scenarios, from 2011 to 2050. It analysed the benefits and costs of the key adaptation strategies identified by Caribbean Governments.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the Coastal and Marine Sector in the Caribbean

Climate change poses special challenges for Caribbean decision makers related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages between climate change, physical and biological systems, and socioeconomic sectors. At present, however, the Caribbean subregion lacks the adaptive capacity needed to address these challenges. The present report assesses the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean until 2050. It aims both to provide Caribbean decision makers with cutting edge information on the vulnerability to climate change of the subregion, and to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

Study on the vulnerability and resilience of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Caribbean Small Island Developing States are considered to be particularly vulnerable to external shocks that stem from changes in climate and the increase in frequency and magnitude of natural disasters. Quantification of the extent of vulnerability of these islands may be measured by the use of several indices including the Economic Vulnerability Index (EcVI), the Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The capacity to build resilience may be measured by the Economic Resilience Index (ERI). Of importance in the measurement of vulnerability and resilience is the impact on women and children. In order to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience, Caribbean SIDS are urged to develop adaptation strategies. Such strategies include the conduct of indepth studies on natural environmental impacts specifically in terms of biophysical and socio economic impacts. It is also necessary to review best practices in terms of preparedness, resilience building and climate change adaptation in other countries such as Cuba. Addressing vulnerability and building resilience requires appropriate information and data and priority should be given to addressing data gaps. It would also be expedient to classify vulnerability and resilience as regional public goods wherein one country’s benefit does not compromise another country’s ability to benefit. Finally, it is important to acknowledge that vulnerability is, in part, is a function of gender so that indicators need to be disaggregated to reflect the country-specific gendered socioeconomic situation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.