Ectomycorrhizae of sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.)

Investigations were performed during the years 1999 to 2001 on a limed and unlimed plot within a high-elevated sessile oak forest. The oak forest (with 90 years old European beech at the understorey) was 170 to 197 years old. It is located at forest district Merzalben, location 04/0705, which is situated in the Palatinate Forest in south-west Germany. Liming was performed in December 1988 when 6 tons/ha of powdered Dolomite were brought up by the forestry department. Liming was performed to counteract the effects of soil acidification (pH(H2O) at Horizon A (0-10 cm): 3.9), which is induced by long-term (anthropogenic) acidic cloud cover and precipitation. Potentially toxic Al3+ ions, which become solubilized below pH 5, were suspected to be responsible for forest dieback and sudden death of the mature oaks. The most logical entry point for these toxic ions was suspected to occur in the highly absorptive region of the ectomycorrhizae (fungal covered root tips). However, the diversity and abundance of oak-ectomycorrhizal species and their actual roles in aluminum translocation (or blockage) were unknown. It was hypothesized that the ectomycorrhizae of sessile oaks in a limed forest would exhibit greater seasonal diversity and abundance with less evidence of incorporated aluminum than similar oak ectomycorrhizae from unlimed soils. To test this hypothesis, 12 oaks in the limed plot and 12 in an adjacent unlimed plot were selected. Each spring and fall for 2 years (1999 & 2000), 2 sets of soil cylinders (9.9 cm dia.) were extracted from Horizon A (0-10 cm), Horizon B (30-40 cm) and Horizon C (50-60 cm depth) at a distance of 1 meter from each tree base. Roots were extracted from each probe by gentle sieving and rinsing. Soil samples were retained for pH (H2O, CaCl2, and KCl) and moisture analysis. One set of roots was sorted by size and air-dried for biomass analysis. The finest mycorrhizal roots of this set were used for bound and unbound (cytosolic) mineral [Al, Ca, Mg, K, Na, Mn, S, Zn, Fe, Cd and Pb] analysis (by Landwirtschaftliche Untersuchungs- und Forschungsanstalt Rheinland Palatinate (LUFA)). Within 7 days of collection, the mycorrhizal tips from the second set of probes were excised, sorted, identified (using Agerer’s Color Atlas), counted and weighed. Seasonal diversity and abundance was characterized for 50 of the 93 isolates. The location and relative abundance of Al within the fungal and root cell walls was characterized for 68 species using 0.01% Morin dye and fluorescence microscopy. Morin complexes with Al to produce an intense yellow fluorescence. The 4 most common species (Cenococcum geophilum, Quercirhiza fibulocsytidiata, Lactarius subdulcis, Piceirhiza chordata) were prepared for bound Al, Ca, Fe and K mineral analysis by LUFA. The unlimed and limed plots were then compared. Only 46 of the 93 isolated ectomycorrhizal species had been previously associated with oaks in the literature. Mycorrhizal biomass was most abundant in Horizon A, declining with depth, drought and progressive soil acidification. Mycorrhizae were most diverse (32 species) in the limed plot, but individual species abundance was low (R Selection) in comparison to the unlimed plot, where there were fewer species (24) but each species present was abundant (K Selection). Liming increased diversity and altered dominance hierarchy, seasonal distributions and succession trends of ectomycorrhizae at all depths. Despite an expected reduction in Al content, the limed ectomycorrhizae both qualitatively (fluorescence analysis) and quantitatively (mineral analysis) contained more bound Al, especially so in Horizon A. The Al content qualitatively and quantitatively increased with depth in the unlimed and limed plots. The bound Al content fluctuated between 4000-and 20000 ppm while the unbound component was consistently lower (4 -14 ppm). The relative amount of unbound Al declined upon liming implying less availability for translocation to the crown area of the trees. This correspouds with the findings of good crown appearance and lower tree mortality in the limed zone. Each ectomycorrhizal species was unique in its ability to block, sequester (hold) or translocate Aluminum. In several species, Al uptake varied with changes in moisture, pH, depth and liming. According to the fluorescence study, about 48% of the isolated ectomycorrhizal species blocked and/or sequestered (held) Al in their mantle and/or Hartig net walls, qualitatively lowering bound Al in the adjacent root cell walls. Generally, if Al was more concentrated in the fungal walls, it was less evident in the cortex and xylem and conversely, if Al was low or absent from the fungal walls it was frequently more evident in the cortex and xylem.

Environmental weathering of natural and artificial stones used in historical architecture: influence of microstructure and new restoration methods

For some study cases (the Cathedral of Modena, Italy, XII-XIV century; the Ducal Palace in Mantua, Italy, XVI century; the church of San Francesco in Fano, Italy, XIV-XIX century), considered as representative of the use of natural and artificial stones in historical architecture, the complex interaction between environ-mental aggressiveness, materials’ microstructural characteristics and degradation was investigated. From the results of such analyses, it was found that materials microstructure plays a fundamental role in the actual extent to which weathering mechanisms affect natural and artificial stones. Consequently, the need of taking into account the important role of material microstructure, when evaluating the environmental aggressiveness to natural and artificial stones, was highlighted. Therefore, a possible quantification of the role of microstructure on the resistance to environmental attack was investigated. By exposing stone samples, with significantly different microstructural features, to slightly acidic aqueous solutions, simulating clean and acid rain, a good correlation between weight losses and the product of carbonate content and specific surface area (defined as the “vulnerable specific surface area”) was found. Alongside the evaluation of stone vulnerability, the development of a new consolidant for weathered carbonate stones was undertaken. The use of hydroxya-patite, formed by reacting the calcite of the stone with an aqueous solution of di-ammonium hydrogen phosphate, was found to be a promising consolidating tech-nique for carbonates stones. Indeed, significant increases in the mechanical prop-erties can be achieved after the treatment, which has the advantage of simply con-sisting in a non-hazardous aqueous solution, able to penetrate deeply into the stone (> 2 cm) and bring significant strengthening after just 2 days of reaction. Furthermore, the stone sorptivity is not eliminated after treatment, so that water and water vapor exchanges between the stone and the environment are not com-pletely blocked.

Outdoor bronze conservation: assessment of protective treatments by accelerated aging and of treatment removal procedures by laser cleaning

Outdoor bronzes exposed to the environment form naturally a layer called patina, which may be able to protect the metallic substrate. However, since the last century, with the appearance of acid rains, a strong change in the nature and properties of the copper based patinas occurred [1]. Studies and general observations have established that bronze corrosion patinas created by acid rain are not only disfiguring in terms of loss of detail and homogeneity, but are also unstable [2]. The unstable patina is partially leached away by rainwater. This leaching is represented by green streaking on bronze monuments [3]. Because of the instability of the patina, conservation techniques are usually required. On a bronze object exposed to the outdoor environment, there are different actions of the rainfall and other atmospheric agents as a function of the monument shape. In fact, we recognize sheltered and unsheltered areas as regards exposure to rainwater [4]. As a consequence of these different actions, two main patina types are formed on monuments exposed to the outdoor environment. These patinas have different electrochemical, morphological and compositional characteristics [1]. In the case of sheltered areas, the patina contains mainly copper products, stratified above a layer strongly enriched in insoluble Sn oxides, located at the interface with the uncorroded metal. Moreover, different colors of the patina result from the exposure geometry. The surface color may be pale green for unsheltered areas, and green and mat black for sheltered areas [4]. Thus, in real outdoor bronze monuments, the corrosion behavior is strongly influenced by the exposure geometry. This must be taken into account when designing conservation procedures, since the patina is in most cases the support on which corrosion inhibitors are applied. Presently, for protecting outdoor bronzes against atmospheric corrosion, inhibitors and protective treatments are used. BTA and its derivatives, which are the most common inhibitors used for copper and its alloy, were found to be toxic for the environment and human health [5, 6]. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that BTA is efficient when applied on bare copper but not as efficient when applied on bare bronze [7]. Thus it was necessary to find alternative compounds. Silane-based inhibitors (already successfully tested on copper and other metallic substrates [8]), were taken into consideration as a non-toxic, environmentally friendly alternative to BTA derivatives for bronze protection. The purpose of this thesis was based on the assessment of the efficiency of a selected compound, to protect the bronze against corrosion, which is the 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane (PropS-SH). It was selected thanks to the collaboration with the Corrosion Studies Centre “Aldo Daccò” at the Università di Ferrara. Since previous studies [9, 10, 11] demonstrated that the addition of nanoparticles to silane-based inhibitors leads to an increase of the protective efficiency, we also wanted to evaluate the influence of the addition of CeO2, La2O3, TiO2 nanoparticles on the protective efficiency of 3-mercapto-propyl-trimethoxy-silane, applied on pre-patinated bronze surfaces. This study is the first section of the thesis. Since restorers have to work on patinated bronzes and not on bare metal (except for contemporary art), it is important to be able to recreate the patina, under laboratory conditions, either in sheltered or unsheltered conditions to test the coating and to obtain reliable results. Therefore, at the University of Bologna, different devices have been designed to simulate the real outdoor conditions and to create a patina which is representative of real application conditions of inhibitor or protective treatments. In particular, accelerated ageing devices by wet & dry (simulating the action of stagnant rain in sheltered areas [12]) and by dropping (simulating the leaching action of the rain in unsheltered areas [1]) tests were used. In the present work, we used the dropping test as a method to produce pre-patinated bronze surfaces for the application of a candidate inhibitor as well as for evaluating its protective efficiency on aged bronze (unsheltered areas). In this thesis, gilded bronzes were also studied. When they are exposed to the outside environment, a corrosion phenomenon appears which is due to the electrochemical couple gold/copper where copper is the anode. In the presence of an electrolyte, this phenomenon results in the formation of corrosion products than will cause a blistering of the gold (or a break-up and loss of the film in some cases). Moreover, because of the diffusion of the copper salts to the surface, aggregates and a greenish film will be formed on the surface of the sample [13]. By coating gilded samples with PropS-SH and PropS-SH containing nano-particles and carrying out accelerated ageing by the dropping test, a discussion is possible on the effectiveness of this coating, either with nano-particles or not, against the corrosion process. This part is the section 2 of this thesis. Finally, a discussion about laser treatment aiming at the assessment of reversibility/re-applicability of the PropS-SH coating can be found in section 3 of this thesis. Because the protective layer loses its efficiency with time, it is necessary to find a way of removing the silane layer, before applying a new one on the “bare” patina. One request is to minimize the damages that a laser treatment would create on the patina. Therefore, different laser fluences (energy/surface) were applied on the sample surface during the treatment process in order to find the best range of fluence. In particular, we made a characterization of surfaces before and after removal of PropS-SH (applied on a naturally patinated surface, and subsequently aged by natural exposure) with laser methods. The laser removal treatment was done by the CNR Institute of Applied Physics “Nello Carrara” of Sesto Fiorentino in Florence. In all the three sections of the thesis, a range of non-destructive spectroscopic methods (Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), μ-Raman spectroscopy, X-Ray diffractometry (XRD)) were used for characterizing the corroded surfaces. AAS (Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy) was used to analyze the ageing solutions from the dropping test in sections 1 and 2.

Seasonal variation and sources of low molecular weight organic acids in precipitation in the rural area of Anshun

Low mol. wt. (LMW) org. acids are important and ubiquitous chem. constituents in the atm. A comprehensive study of the chem. compn. of pptn. was carried out from June 2007 to June 2008 at a rural site in Anshun, in the west of Guizhou Province, China. During this period, 118 rainwater samples were collected and the main LMW carboxylic acids were detd. using ion chromatog. The av. pH of rainwater was 4.89 which is a typical acidic value. The most abundant carboxylic acids were formic acid (vol. wt. mean concn.: 8.77 μmol L-1) and acetic acid (6.90 μmol L-1), followed by oxalic acid (2.05 μmol L-1). The seasonal variation of concns. and wet deposition fluxes of org. acids indicated that direct vegetation emissions were the main sources of the org. acids. Highest concns. were obsd. in winter and were ascribed to the low winter rainfall and the contribution of other air pollution sources northeast of the study area. The ratio of formic and acetic acids in the pptn. ([F/A]T) was proposed as an indicator of pollution source. This suggested that the pollution resulted from direct emissions from natural or anthropogenic sources. Comparison with acid pptn. in other urban and rural areas in Guizhou showed that there was a decreasing contribution of LMW org. acids to free acidity and all anions in rainwater from urban to remote rural areas. Consequently, it is necessary to control emissions of org. acids to reduce the frequency of acid rain, esp. in rural and remote areas. [on SciFinder(R)]

Legislative Legacy: Big Changes in Legislative Article of 1972 Constitution -- Jerry Loendorf, Arlyne Reichert & Rich Bechtel “In the Crucible of Change”

The fulcrum upon which were leveraged many of the dramatic progressive changes in Montana that are documented "In the Crucible of Change" series was the lead up to, preparation, writing and adoption of the 1972 Montana Constitution. As Montana citizens exhibited their concern over the dysfunctional state government in MT under its 1889 Constitution, one of the areas that stood out as needing serious change was the Montana Legislature. Meeting for only sixty calendar days every two years, the Legislature regularly tried to carry off the subterfuge of stopping the wall clock at 11:59 PM on the sixtieth day and placing a shroud over it so they could continue to conduct business as if it were still the 60th day. Lawyers hired by the Anaconda Company drafted most bills that legislators wanted to have introduced. Malapportionment, especially in the State Senate where each county had one Senator regardless of their population, created a situation where Petroleum County with 800 residents had one senator while neighboring Yellowstone County with 80,000 people also had one senator -- a 100-1 differential in representation. Reapportionment imposed by rulings of the US Supreme Court in the mid-1960s created great furor in rural Montana to go along with the previous dissatisfaction of the urban centers. Stories of Anaconda Company “thumbs up – thumbs down” control of the votes were prevalent. Committee meeting and votes were done behind closed doors and recorded votes were non-existent except for the nearly meaningless final tally. People were in the dark about the creation of laws that affected their daily lives. It was clear that change in the Legislature had to take the form of change in the Constitution and, because it was not likely that the Legislature would advance Constitutional amendments on the subject, a convention seemed the only remedy. Once that Convention was called and went to work, it became apparent that the Legislative Article provided both opportunity for change and danger that too dramatic a change might sink the whole new document. The activities of the Legislative Committee and the whole Convention when acting upon Legislative issues provides one of the more compelling stories of change. The story of the Legislative Article of the Montana Constitution is discussed in this episode by three major players who were directly involved in the effort: Jerry Loendorf, Arlyne Reichert and Rich Bechtel. Their recollections of the activities surrounding the entire Constitutional Convention and specifically the Legislative Article provide an insider’s perspective of the development of the entire Constitution and the Legislative portion which was of such a high degree of interest to the people of Montana during the important period of progressive change documented “In the Crucible of Change.” Jerry Loendorf, who served as Chair of the Legislative Committee at the 1972 Montana Constitutional Convention, received a BA from Carroll College in 1961 and a JD from the University of Montana Law School in 1964. Upon graduation he served two years as a law clerk for the Montana Supreme Court after which he was for 34 years a partner in the law firm of Harrison, Loendorf & Posten, Duncan. In addition to being a delegate to the Constitutional Convention, Jerry served on the Board of Labor Appeals from 2000 to 2004. He was designated a Montana Special Assistant Attorney General to represent the state in federal court on the challenge to the results of the ratification election of Montana's Constitution in 1972. Jerry served on the Carroll College Board of Directors in the late 1960s and then again as a member of the Board of Trustees of Carroll College from 2001 to 2009. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Rocky Mountain Development Council since 1970 and was on the board of the Helena YMCA from 1981 to 1987. He also served on the board of the Good Samaritan Ministries from 2009 to 2014. On the business side, Jerry was on the Board of Directors of Valley Bank to Helena from 1980 to 2005. He is a member of the American Bar Association, State Bar of Montana, the First Judicial District Bar Association, and the Montana Trial Lawyers Association. Carroll College awarded Jerry the Warren Nelson Award 1994 and the Insignias Award in 2007. At Carroll College, Jerry has funded the following three scholarship endowments: George C and Helen T Loendorf, Gary Turcott, and Fr. William Greytek. Arlyne Reichert, Great Falls Delegate to the Constitutional Convention and former State Legislator, was born in Buffalo, NY in 1926 and attended University of Buffalo in conjunction with Cadet Nurses Training during WWII. She married a Montanan in Great Falls in 1945 and was widowed in 1968. She is mother of five, grandmother of seven, great-grandmother of four. Arlyne was employed by McLaughlin Research Institute in Great Falls for 23 years, serving as Technical Editor of Transplantation Journal in 1967, retiring as Assistant Director in 1989. In addition to being a state legislator (1979 Session) and a delegate to the 1972 Montana Constitutional Convention, she has filled many public roles, including Cascade County Study Commissioner (1974), MT Comprehensive Health Council, US Civil Rights Commission MT Advisory Committee, MT Capitol Restoration Committee, and Great Falls Public Library Trustee. Arlyne has engaged in many non-profit activities including League of Women Voters (State & Local Board Officer – from where her interest in the MT Constitutional change developed), Great Falls Public Radio Association (President & Founder), American Cancer Society (President Great Falls Chapter), Chair of MT Rhodes Scholarship Committee, and Council Member of the National Civic League. She also served a while as a Television Legislative Reporter. Arlyne has been recipient of numerous awards, the National Distinguished Citizens Award from the National Municipal League, two Women of Achievement Awards from Business & Professional Women, the Salute to Women Award by YWCA, Heritage Preservation Award from Cascade County Historical Society and the State of Montana, and the Heroes Award from Humanities Montana. She remains active, serving as Secretary-Treasurer of Preservation Cascade, Inc., and as Board Member of the McLaughlin Research Institute. Her current passion is applied to the preservation/saving of the historic 10th Street Bridge that crosses the Missouri River in Great Falls. Rich Bechtel of Helena was born in Napa, California in 1945 and grew up as an Air Force brat living in such places as Bitberg, Germany, Tripoli, Libya, and Sevilla, Spain. He graduated from Glasgow High School and the University of Montana. Rich was a graduate assistant for noted Montana History professor Professor K. Ross Toole, but dropped out of graduate school to pursue a real life in Montana politics and government. Rich has had a long, varied and colorful career in the public arena. He currently is the Director of the Office of Taxpayer Assistance & Public Outreach for MT’s Department of Revenue. He previously held two positions with the National Wildlife Federation in Washington, DC (Sr. Legislative Representative [1989-91] and Sr. Legislative Representative for Wildlife Policy [2004-2006]). While in Washington DC, he also was Assistant for Senator Lee Metcalf (D-MT), 1974-1976; Federal-State Coordinator for State of Montana, 1976-1989; Director of the Western Governors’ Association Washington Office, 1991-2000; and Director of Federal Affairs for Governor Kitzhaber of Oregon, 2001- 2003. Earlier in Montana Government, between 1971 and 1974, Rich was Research Analyst for MT Blue Ribbon Commission on Postsecondary Education, Legislative Consultant and Bill Drafter for MT Legislative Council, Research Analyst for the MT Constitutional Convention Commission where he provided original research on legislatures, as well as Researcher/Staff for the MT Constitutional Convention Legislative Committee, from where he drafted the various provisions of the Legislative Article and the majority and minority reports on behalf of the Committee members. Rich has represented Montana’s Governor on a trade and cultural mission to Republic of China and participated in US-German Acid Rain Committee sessions in Germany and with European Economic Community environmental officials in Belgium. He is married to Yvonne Seng (Ph.D.) - T’ai Chi apprentice; author and birder.

Strontium isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera from sediment samples acroos the K/T boundary

Seawater 87Sr/86Sr values increase abruptly by 28 * 10**-6 across the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary (KTB). This small, but rapid shift is superimposed on the larger scale structure of the seawater Sr isotope curve. The time scale of radiogenic Sr addition appears to be too rapid to reconcile with sources associated with volcanism, and we show that the amount of Sr required to produce even this small increase is too large to be derived from: (1) a KT bolide of the size constrained by the Ir anomaly, (2) continental crust ejecta from the impact of such a bolide, (3) soot from global wildfires initiated by an impact, or (4) any combination of these sources. The probable source of the radiogenic Sr is enhanced continental weathering, but the high rate of increase appears to rule out processes such as sea level regression, glaciation or tectonism. A plausible mechanism for rapid addition of radiogenic Sr to the oceans is enhanced weathering associated with globally distributed acid rain (pH c. 1) which is a proposed by-product of a bolide impact (Prinn and Fegley, 1987, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(87)90046-X).

Aplicación de técnicas de inteligencia artificial a la predicción de contaminantes atmosféricos

Abstract Air pollution is a big threat and a phenomenon that has a specific impact on human health, in addition, changes that occur in the chemical composition of the atmosphere can change the weather and cause acid rain or ozone destruction. Those are phenomena of global importance. The World Health Organization (WHO) considerates air pollution as one of the most important global priorities. Salamanca, Gto., Mexico has been ranked as one of the most polluted cities in this country. The industry of the area led to a major economic development and rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century. The impact in the air quality is important and significant efforts have been made to measure the concentrations of pollutants. The main pollution sources are locally based plants in the chemical and power generation sectors. The registered concerning pollutants are Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) and particles on the order of ∼10 micrometers or less (PM10). The prediction in the concentration of those pollutants can be a powerful tool in order to take preventive measures such as the reduction of emissions and alerting the affected population. In this PhD thesis we propose a model to predict concentrations of pollutants SO2 and PM10 for each monitoring booth in the Atmospheric Monitoring Network Salamanca (REDMAS - for its spanish acronym). The proposed models consider the use of meteorological variables as factors influencing the concentration of pollutants. The information used along this work is the current real data from REDMAS. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms are used. The type of ANN used is the Multilayer Perceptron with a hidden layer, using separate structures for the prediction of each pollutant. The meteorological variables used for prediction were: Wind Direction (WD), wind speed (WS), Temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). Clustering algorithms, K-means and Fuzzy C-means, are used to find relationships between air pollutants and weather variables under consideration, which are added as input of the RNA. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the prediction of the pollutants. The results of the model proposed in this work are compared with the results of a multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The evaluation of the prediction is calculated with the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, the correlation coefficient and the index of agreement. The results show the importance of meteorological variables in the prediction of the concentration of the pollutants SO2 and PM10 in the city of Salamanca, Gto., Mexico. The results show that the proposed model perform better than multivariate linear regression and multilayer perceptron neural network. The models implemented for each monitoring booth have the ability to make predictions of air quality that can be used in a system of real-time forecasting and human health impact analysis. Among the main results of the development of this thesis we can cite: A model based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms for prediction with a hour ahead of the concentration of each pollutant (SO2 and PM10) is proposed. A different model was designed for each pollutant and for each of the three monitoring booths of the REDMAS. A model to predict the average of pollutant concentration in the next 24 hours of pollutants SO2 and PM10 is proposed, based on artificial neural network combined with clustering algorithms. Model was designed for each booth of the REDMAS and each pollutant separately. Resumen La contaminación atmosférica es una amenaza aguda, constituye un fenómeno que tiene particular incidencia sobre la salud del hombre. Los cambios que se producen en la composición química de la atmósfera pueden cambiar el clima, producir lluvia ácida o destruir el ozono, fenómenos todos ellos de una gran importancia global. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) considera la contaminación atmosférica como una de las más importantes prioridades mundiales. Salamanca, Gto., México; ha sido catalogada como una de las ciudades más contaminadas en este país. La industria de la zona propició un importante desarrollo económico y un crecimiento acelerado de la población en la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Las afectaciones en el aire son graves y se han hecho importantes esfuerzos por medir las concentraciones de los contaminantes. Las principales fuentes de contaminación son fuentes fijas como industrias químicas y de generación eléctrica. Los contaminantes que se han registrado como preocupantes son el Bióxido de Azufre (SO2) y las Partículas Menores a 10 micrómetros (PM10). La predicción de las concentraciones de estos contaminantes puede ser una potente herramienta que permita tomar medidas preventivas como reducción de emisiones a la atmósfera y alertar a la población afectada. En la presente tesis doctoral se propone un modelo de predicción de concentraci ón de los contaminantes más críticos SO2 y PM10 para cada caseta de monitorización de la Red de Monitorización Atmosférica de Salamanca (REDMAS). Los modelos propuestos plantean el uso de las variables meteorol ógicas como factores que influyen en la concentración de los contaminantes. La información utilizada durante el desarrollo de este trabajo corresponde a datos reales obtenidos de la REDMAS. En el Modelo Propuesto (MP) se aplican Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) combinadas con algoritmos de agrupamiento. La RNA utilizada es el Perceptrón Multicapa con una capa oculta, utilizando estructuras independientes para la predicción de cada contaminante. Las variables meteorológicas disponibles para realizar la predicción fueron: Dirección de Viento (DV), Velocidad de Viento (VV), Temperatura (T) y Humedad Relativa (HR). Los algoritmos de agrupamiento K-means y Fuzzy C-means son utilizados para encontrar relaciones existentes entre los contaminantes atmosféricos en estudio y las variables meteorológicas. Dichas relaciones aportan información a las RNA para obtener la predicción de los contaminantes, la cual es agregada como entrada de las RNA. Los resultados del modelo propuesto en este trabajo son comparados con los resultados de una Regresión Lineal Multivariable (RLM) y un Perceptrón Multicapa (MLP). La evaluación de la predicción se realiza con el Error Medio Absoluto, la Raíz del Error Cuadrático Medio, el coeficiente de correlación y el índice de acuerdo. Los resultados obtenidos muestran la importancia de las variables meteorológicas en la predicción de la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 en la ciudad de Salamanca, Gto., México. Los resultados muestran que el MP predice mejor la concentración de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10 que los modelos RLM y MLP. Los modelos implementados para cada caseta de monitorizaci ón tienen la capacidad para realizar predicciones de calidad del aire, estos modelos pueden ser implementados en un sistema que permita realizar la predicción en tiempo real y analizar el impacto en la salud de la población. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos del desarrollo de esta tesis podemos citar: Se propone un modelo basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento para la predicción con una hora de anticipaci ón de la concentración de cada contaminante (SO2 y PM10). Se diseñó un modelo diferente para cada contaminante y para cada una de las tres casetas de monitorización de la REDMAS. Se propone un modelo de predicción del promedio de la concentración de las próximas 24 horas de los contaminantes SO2 y PM10, basado en una red neuronal artificial combinado con algoritmos de agrupamiento. Se diseñó un modelo para cada caseta de monitorización de la REDMAS y para cada contaminante por separado.

Introducing Nuclear Energy to High-School Students: The Spanish Young Generation in Nuclear (Jóvenes Nucleares) Lectures

One of the main goals of Spanish Young Generation (JJNN) is to spread knowledge about nuclear energy, not only pointing out its advantages and its role in our society, but also trying to correct some of the ideas that are due to the biased information and to the lack of knowledge. With this goal in mind, lectures were given in several high schools, aimed at students ranging from 14 to 18 years old. This paper explains the experience accumulated during those talks and the conclusions that can be drawn, so as to better focus the communication about nuclear energy, especially the one aimed at a young public. In order to evaluate the degree of knowledge and information on a specific topic of a given group of individuals, statistical methods must be used. At the beginning of each lecture (and sometimes at the end, in order to evaluate the impact of the talk) the students were submitted to a short survey conducted by Spanish Young Generation. It consisted in eight questions, dealing with the relation between the main environmental issues (global warming, acid rain, radioactive waste…) and nuclear energy. The answers can be surprising, especially for professionals of the nuclear field who, since they are so familiar with this topic, often forget that this is just the case of a minority of people. A better knowledge of the degree of information of a given group enables to focus and personalize the communication. Another communication tool is the direct contact with students: it starts with their questions, which can then lead to a small debate. If the surveys inform about the topics they are unaware of, the direct exchange with them enables to find the most effective way to provide them the information. Of course, it depends a lot on the public attending the talk (age, background…) and on the debate following the talk: a good communication, adapted to the public, is necessary. Therefore, the outcome of the performed exercise is that Spanish teenagers have still a lack of knowledge about nuclear energy. We can learn that items that are evident for nuclear young professionals are unknown for high school teenagers

Metodología para la asignación de vehículos de una flota a rutas preestablecidas

En general, la distribución de una flota de vehículos que recorre rutas fijas no se realiza completamente en base a criterios objetivos, primando otros aspectos más difícilmente cuantificables. El análisis apropiado debería tener en consideración la variabilidad existente entre las diferentes rutas dentro de una misma ciudad para así determinar qué tecnología es la que mejor se adapta a las características de cada itinerario. Este trabajo presenta una metodología para optimizar la asignación de una flota de vehículos a sus rutas, consiguiendo reducir el consumo y las emisiones contaminantes. El método propuesto está organizado según el siguiente procedimiento: - Registro de las características cinemáticas de los vehículos que recorren un conjunto representativo de rutas. - Agrupamiento de las líneas en conglomerados de líneas similares empleando un algoritmo jerárquico que optimice el índice de semejanza entre rutas obtenido mediante contraste de hipótesis de las variables representativas. - Generación de un ciclo cinemático específico para cada conglomerado. - Tipificación de variables macroscópicas que faciliten la clasificación de las restantes líneas utilizando una red neuronal entrenada con la información recopilada en las rutas medidas. - Conocimiento de las características de la flota disponible. - Disponibilidad de un modelo que estime, según la tecnología del vehículo, el consumo y las emisiones asociados a las variables cinemáticas de los ciclos. - Desarrollo de un algoritmo de reasignación de vehículos que optimice una función objetivo dependiente de las emisiones. En el proceso de optimización de la flota se plantean dos escenarios de gran trascendencia en la evaluación ambiental, consistentes en minimizar la emisión de dióxido de carbono y su impacto como gas de efecto invernadero (GEI), y alternativamente, la producción de nitróxidos, por su influencia en la lluvia ácida y en la formación de ozono troposférico en núcleos urbanos. Además, en ambos supuestos se introducen en el problema restricciones adicionales para evitar que las emisiones de las restantes sustancias superen los valores estipulados según la organización de la flota actualmente realizada por el operador. La metodología ha sido aplicada en 160 líneas de autobús de la EMT de Madrid, conociéndose los datos cinemáticos de 25 rutas. Los resultados indican que, en ambos supuestos, es factible obtener una redistribución de la flota que consiga reducir significativamente la mayoría de las sustancias contaminantes, evitando que, en contraprestación, aumente la emisión de cualquier otro contaminante. ABSTRACT In general, the distribution of a fleet of vehicles that travel fixed routes is not usually implemented on the basis of objective criteria, thus prioritizing on other features that are more difficult to quantify. The appropriate analysis should consider the existing variability amongst the different routes within the city in order to determine which technology adapts better to the peculiarities of each itinerary. This study proposes a methodology to optimize the allocation of a fleet of vehicles to the routes in order to reduce fuel consumption and pollutant emissions. The suggested method is structured in accordance with the following procedure: - Recording of the kinematic characteristics of the vehicles that travel a representative set of routes. - Grouping of the lines in clusters of similar routes by utilizing a hierarchical algorithm that optimizes the similarity index between routes, which has been previously obtained by means of hypothesis contrast based on a set of representative variables. - Construction of a specific kinematic cycle to represent each cluster of routes. - Designation of macroscopic variables that allow the classification of the remaining lines using a neural network trained with the information gathered from a sample of routes. - Identification and comprehension of the operational characteristics of the existing fleet. - Availability of a model that evaluates, in accordance with the technology of the vehicle, the fuel consumption and the emissions related with the kinematic variables of the cycles. - Development of an algorithm for the relocation of the vehicle fleet by optimizing an objective function which relies on the values of the pollutant emissions. Two scenarios having great relevance in environmental evaluation are assessed during the optimization process of the fleet, these consisting in minimizing carbon dioxide emissions due to its impact as greenhouse gas (GHG), and alternatively, the production of nitroxides for their influence on acid rain and in the formation of tropospheric ozone in urban areas. Furthermore, additional restrictions are introduced in both assumptions in order to prevent that emission levels for the remaining substances exceed the stipulated values for the actual fleet organization implemented by the system operator. The methodology has been applied in 160 bus lines of the EMT of Madrid, for which kinematic information is known for a sample consisting of 25 routes. The results show that, in both circumstances, it is feasible to obtain a redistribution of the fleet that significantly reduces the emissions for the majority of the pollutant substances, while preventing an alternative increase in the emission level of any other contaminant.

Evaluación de las Consecuencias de la Nueva Regulación de la OMI sobre Combustibles Marinos

El 10 de octubre de 2008 la Organización Marítima Internacional (OMI) firmó una modificación al Anexo VI del convenio MARPOL 73/78, por la que estableció una reducción progresiva de las emisiones de óxidos de azufre (SOx) procedentes de los buques, una reducción adicional de las emisiones de óxidos de nitrógeno (NOx), así como límites en las emisiones de dióxido de Carbono (CO2) procedentes de los motores marinos y causantes de problemas medioambientales como la lluvia ácida y efecto invernadero. Centrándonos en los límites sobre las emisiones de azufre, a partir del 1 de enero de 2015 esta normativa obliga a todos los buques que naveguen por zonas controladas, llamadas Emission Control Area (ECA), a consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,1%. A partir del 1 de enero del año 2020, o bien del año 2025, si la OMI decide retrasar su inicio, los buques deberán consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,5%. De igual forma que antes, el contenido deberá ser rebajado al 0,1%S, si navegan por el interior de zonas ECA. Por su parte, la Unión Europea ha ido más allá que la OMI, adelantando al año 2020 la aplicación de los límites más estrictos de la ley MARPOL sobre las aguas de su zona económica exclusiva. Para ello, el 21 de noviembre de 2013 firmó la Directiva 2012 / 33 / EU como adenda a la Directiva de 1999. Tengamos presente que la finalidad de estas nuevas leyes es la mejora de la salud pública y el medioambiente, produciendo beneficios sociales, en forma de reducción de enfermedades, sobre todo de tipo respiratorio, a la vez que se reduce la lluvia ácida y sus nefastas consecuencias. La primera pregunta que surge es ¿cuál es el combustible actual de los buques y cuál será el que tengan que consumir para cumplir con esta Regulación? Pues bien, los grandes buques de navegación internacional consumen hoy en día fuel oil con un nivel de azufre de 3,5%. ¿Existen fueles con un nivel de azufre de 0,5%S? Como hemos concluido en el capítulo 4, para las empresas petroleras, la producción de fuel oil como combustible marino es tratada como un subproducto en su cesta de productos refinados por cada barril de Brent, ya que la demanda de fuel respecto a otros productos está bajando y además, el margen de beneficio que obtienen por la venta de otros productos petrolíferos es mayor que con el fuel. Así, podemos decir que las empresas petroleras no están interesadas en invertir en sus refinerías para producir estos fueles con menor contenido de azufre. Es más, en el caso de que alguna compañía decidiese invertir en producir un fuel de 0,5%S, su precio debería ser muy similar al del gasóleo para poder recuperar las inversiones empleadas. Por lo tanto, el único combustible que actualmente cumple con los nuevos niveles impuestos por la OMI es el gasóleo, con un precio que durante el año 2014 estuvo a una media de 307 USD/ton más alto que el actual fuel oil. Este mayor precio de compra de combustible impactará directamente sobre el coste del trasporte marítimo. La entrada en vigor de las anteriores normativas está suponiendo un reto para todo el sector marítimo. Ante esta realidad, se plantean diferentes alternativas con diferentes implicaciones técnicas, operativas y financieras. En la actualidad, son tres las alternativas con mayor aceptación en el sector. La primera alternativa consiste en “no hacer nada” y simplemente cambiar el tipo de combustible de los grandes buques de fuel oil a gasóleo. Las segunda alternativa es la instalación de un equipo scrubber, que permitiría continuar con el consumo de fuel oil, limpiando sus gases de combustión antes de salir a la atmósfera. Y, por último, la tercera alternativa consiste en el uso de Gas Natural Licuado (GNL) como combustible, con un precio inferior al del gasóleo. Sin embargo, aún existen importantes incertidumbres sobre la evolución futura de precios, operación y mantenimiento de las nuevas tecnologías, inversiones necesarias, disponibilidad de infraestructura portuaria e incluso el desarrollo futuro de la propia normativa internacional. Estas dudas hacen que ninguna de estas tres alternativas sea unánime en el sector. En esta tesis, tras exponer en el capítulo 3 la regulación aplicable al sector, hemos investigado sus consecuencias. Para ello, hemos examinado en el capítulo 4 si existen en la actualidad combustibles marinos que cumplan con los nuevos límites de azufre o en su defecto, cuál sería el precio de los nuevos combustibles. Partimos en el capítulo 5 de la hipótesis de que todos los buques cambian su consumo de fuel oil a gasóleo para cumplir con dicha normativa, calculamos el incremento de demanda de gasóleo que se produciría y analizamos las consecuencias que este hecho tendría sobre la producción de gasóleos en el Mediterráneo. Adicionalmente, calculamos el impacto económico que dicho incremento de coste producirá sobre sector exterior de España. Para ello, empleamos como base de datos el sistema de control de tráfico marítimo Authomatic Identification System (AIS) para luego analizar los datos de todos los buques que han hecho escala en algún puerto español, para así calcular el extra coste anual por el consumo de gasóleo que sufrirá el transporte marítimo para mover todas las importaciones y exportaciones de España. Por último, en el capítulo 6, examinamos y comparamos las otras dos alternativas al consumo de gasóleo -scrubbers y propulsión con GNL como combustible- y, finalmente, analizamos en el capítulo 7, la viabilidad de las inversiones en estas dos tecnologías para cumplir con la regulación. En el capítulo 5 explicamos los numerosos métodos que existen para calcular la demanda de combustible de un buque. La metodología seguida para su cálculo será del tipo bottom-up, que está basada en la agregación de la actividad y las características de cada tipo de buque. El resultado está basado en la potencia instalada de cada buque, porcentaje de carga del motor y su consumo específico. Para ello, analizamos el número de buques que navegan por el Mediterráneo a lo largo de un año mediante el sistema AIS, realizando “fotos” del tráfico marítimo en el Mediterráneo y reportando todos los buques en navegación en días aleatorios a lo largo de todo el año 2014. Por último, y con los datos anteriores, calculamos la demanda potencial de gasóleo en el Mediterráneo. Si no se hace nada y los buques comienzan a consumir gasóleo como combustible principal, en vez del actual fuel oil para cumplir con la regulación, la demanda de gasoil en el Mediterráneo aumentará en 12,12 MTA (Millones de Toneladas Anuales) a partir del año 2020. Esto supone alrededor de 3.720 millones de dólares anuales por el incremento del gasto de combustible tomando como referencia el precio medio de los combustibles marinos durante el año 2014. El anterior incremento de demanda en el Mediterráneo supondría el 43% del total de la demanda de gasóleos en España en el año 2013, incluyendo gasóleos de automoción, biodiesel y gasóleos marinos y el 3,2% del consumo europeo de destilados medios durante el año 2014. ¿Podrá la oferta del mercado europeo asumir este incremento de demanda de gasóleos? Europa siempre ha sido excedentaria en gasolina y deficitaria en destilados medios. En el año 2009, Europa tuvo que importar 4,8 MTA de Norte América y 22,1 MTA de Asia. Por lo que, este aumento de demanda sobre la ya limitada capacidad de refino de destilados medios en Europa incrementará las importaciones y producirá también aumentos en los precios, sobre todo del mercado del gasóleo. El sector sobre el que más impactará el incremento de demanda de gasóleo será el de los cruceros que navegan por el Mediterráneo, pues consumirán un 30,4% de la demanda de combustible de toda flota mundial de cruceros, lo que supone un aumento en su gasto de combustible de 386 millones de USD anuales. En el caso de los RoRos, consumirían un 23,6% de la demanda de la flota mundial de este tipo de buque, con un aumento anual de 171 millones de USD sobre su gasto de combustible anterior. El mayor incremento de coste lo sufrirán los portacontenedores, con 1.168 millones de USD anuales sobre su gasto actual. Sin embargo, su consumo en el Mediterráneo representa sólo el 5,3% del consumo mundial de combustible de este tipo de buques. Estos números plantean la incertidumbre de si semejante aumento de gasto en buques RoRo hará que el transporte marítimo de corta distancia en general pierda competitividad sobre otros medios de transporte alternativos en determinadas rutas. De manera que, parte del volumen de mercancías que actualmente transportan los buques se podría trasladar a la carretera, con los inconvenientes medioambientales y operativos, que esto produciría. En el caso particular de España, el extra coste por el consumo de gasóleo de todos los buques con escala en algún puerto español en el año 2013 se cifra en 1.717 millones de EUR anuales, según demostramos en la última parte del capítulo 5. Para realizar este cálculo hemos analizado con el sistema AIS a todos los buques que han tenido escala en algún puerto español y los hemos clasificado por distancia navegada, tipo de buque y potencia. Este encarecimiento del transporte marítimo será trasladado al sector exterior español, lo cual producirá un aumento del coste de las importaciones y exportaciones por mar en un país muy expuesto, pues el 75,61% del total de las importaciones y el 53,64% del total de las exportaciones se han hecho por vía marítima. Las tres industrias que se verán más afectadas son aquellas cuyo valor de mercancía es inferior respecto a su coste de transporte. Para ellas los aumentos del coste sobre el total del valor de cada mercancía serán de un 2,94% para la madera y corcho, un 2,14% para los productos minerales y un 1,93% para las manufacturas de piedra, cemento, cerámica y vidrio. Las mercancías que entren o salgan por los dos archipiélagos españoles de Canarias y Baleares serán las que se verán más impactadas por el extra coste del transporte marítimo, ya que son los puertos más alejados de otros puertos principales y, por tanto, con más distancia de navegación. Sin embargo, esta no es la única alternativa al cumplimiento de la nueva regulación. De la lectura del capítulo 6 concluimos que las tecnologías de equipos scrubbers y de propulsión con GNL permitirán al buque consumir combustibles más baratos al gasoil, a cambio de una inversión en estas tecnologías. ¿Serán los ahorros producidos por estas nuevas tecnologías suficientes para justificar su inversión? Para contestar la anterior pregunta, en el capítulo 7 hemos comparado las tres alternativas y hemos calculado tanto los costes de inversión como los gastos operativos correspondientes a equipos scrubbers o propulsión con GNL para una selección de 53 categorías de buques. La inversión en equipos scrubbers es más conveniente para buques grandes, con navegación no regular. Sin embargo, para buques de tamaño menor y navegación regular por puertos con buena infraestructura de suministro de GNL, la inversión en una propulsión con GNL como combustible será la más adecuada. En el caso de un tiempo de navegación del 100% dentro de zonas ECA y bajo el escenario de precios visto durante el año 2014, los proyectos con mejor plazo de recuperación de la inversión en equipos scrubbers son para los cruceros de gran tamaño (100.000 tons. GT), para los que se recupera la inversión en 0,62 años, los grandes portacontenedores de más de 8.000 TEUs con 0,64 años de recuperación y entre 5.000-8.000 TEUs con 0,71 años de recuperación y, por último, los grandes petroleros de más de 200.000 tons. de peso muerto donde tenemos un plazo de recuperación de 0,82 años. La inversión en scrubbers para buques pequeños, por el contrario, tarda más tiempo en recuperarse llegando a más de 5 años en petroleros y quimiqueros de menos de 5.000 toneladas de peso muerto. En el caso de una posible inversión en propulsión con GNL, las categorías de buques donde la inversión en GNL es más favorable y recuperable en menor tiempo son las más pequeñas, como ferris, cruceros o RoRos. Tomamos ahora el caso particular de un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 toneladas de peso muerto ya construido y nos planteamos la viabilidad de la inversión en la instalación de un equipo scrubber o bien, el cambio a una propulsión por GNL a partir del año 2015. Se comprueba que las dos variables que más impactan sobre la conveniencia de la inversión son el tiempo de navegación del buque dentro de zonas de emisiones controladas (ECA) y el escenario futuro de precios del MGO, HSFO y GNL. Para realizar este análisis hemos estudiado cada inversión, calculando una batería de condiciones de mérito como el payback, TIR, VAN y la evolución de la tesorería del inversor. Posteriormente, hemos calculado las condiciones de contorno mínimas de este buque en concreto para asegurar una inversión no sólo aceptable, sino además conveniente para el naviero inversor. En el entorno de precios del 2014 -con un diferencial entre fuel y gasóleo de 264,35 USD/ton- si el buque pasa más de un 56% de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) en el equipo scrubber que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor tomado como coste de oportunidad. Para el caso de inversión en GNL, en el entorno de precios del año 2014 -con un diferencial entre GNL y gasóleo de 353,8 USD/ton FOE- si el buque pasa más de un 64,8 % de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor del coste de oportunidad. Para un tiempo en zona ECA estimado de un 60%, la rentabilidad de la inversión (TIR) en scrubbers para los inversores será igual o superior al 9,6%, el coste de oportunidad requerido por el inversor, para valores del diferencial de precio entre los dos combustibles alternativos, gasóleo (MGO) y fuel oil (HSFO) a partir de 244,73 USD/ton. En el caso de una inversión en propulsión GNL se requeriría un diferencial de precio entre MGO y GNL de 382,3 USD/ton FOE o superior. Así, para un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 DWT, la inversión en una reconversión para instalar un equipo scrubber es más conveniente que la de GNL, pues alcanza rentabilidades de la inversión (TIR) para inversores del 12,77%, frente a un 6,81% en el caso de invertir en GNL. Para ambos cálculos se ha tomado un buque que navegue un 60% de su tiempo por zona ECA y un escenario de precios medios del año 2014 para el combustible. Po otro lado, las inversiones en estas tecnologías a partir del año 2025 para nuevas construcciones son en ambos casos convenientes. El naviero deberá prestar especial atención aquí a las características propias de su buque y tipo de navegación, así como a la infraestructura de suministros y vertidos en los puertos donde vaya a operar usualmente. Si bien, no se ha estudiado en profundidad en esta tesis, no olvidemos que el sector marítimo debe cumplir además con las otras dos limitaciones que la regulación de la OMI establece sobre las emisiones de óxidos de Nitrógeno (NOx) y Carbono (CO2) y que sin duda, requerirán adicionales inversiones en diversos equipos. De manera que, si bien las consecuencias del consumo de gasóleo como alternativa al cumplimiento de la Regulación MARPOL son ciertamente preocupantes, existen alternativas al uso del gasóleo, con un aumento sobre el coste del transporte marítimo menor y manteniendo los beneficios sociales que pretende dicha ley. En efecto, como hemos demostrado, las opciones que se plantean como más rentables desde el punto de vista financiero son el consumo de GNL en los buques pequeños y de línea regular (cruceros, ferries, RoRos), y la instalación de scrubbers para el resto de buques de grandes dimensiones. Pero, por desgracia, estas inversiones no llegan a hacerse realidad por el elevado grado de incertidumbre asociado a estos dos mercados, que aumenta el riesgo empresarial, tanto de navieros como de suministradores de estas nuevas tecnologías. Observamos así una gran reticencia del sector privado a decidirse por estas dos alternativas. Este elevado nivel de riesgo sólo puede reducirse fomentando el esfuerzo conjunto del sector público y privado para superar estas barreras de entrada del mercado de scrubbers y GNL, que lograrían reducir las externalidades medioambientales de las emisiones sin restar competitividad al transporte marítimo. Creemos así, que los mismos organismos que aprobaron dicha ley deben ayudar al sector naviero a afrontar las inversiones en dichas tecnologías, así como a impulsar su investigación y promover la creación de una infraestructura portuaria adaptada a suministros de GNL y a descargas de vertidos procedentes de los equipos scrubber. Deberían además, prestar especial atención sobre las ayudas al sector de corta distancia para evitar que pierda competitividad frente a otros medios de transporte por el cumplimiento de esta normativa. Actualmente existen varios programas europeos de incentivos, como TEN-T o Marco Polo, pero no los consideramos suficientes. Por otro lado, la Organización Marítima Internacional debe confirmar cuanto antes si retrasa o no al 2025 la nueva bajada del nivel de azufre en combustibles. De esta manera, se eliminaría la gran incertidumbre temporal que actualmente tienen tanto navieros, como empresas petroleras y puertos para iniciar sus futuras inversiones y poder estudiar la viabilidad de cada alternativa de forma individual. ABSTRACT On 10 October 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) signed an amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL 73/78 convention establishing a gradual reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships, and an additional reduction in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from marine engines which cause environmental problems such as acid rain and the greenhouse effect. According to this regulation, from 1 January 2015, ships travelling in an Emission Control Area (ECA) must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.1%. From 1 January 2020, or alternatively from 2025 if the IMO should decide to delay its introduction, all ships must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.5%. As before, this content will be 0.1%S for voyages within ECAs. Meanwhile, the European Union has gone further than the IMO, and will apply the strictest limits of the MARPOL directives in the waters of its exclusive economic zone from 2020. To this end, Directive 2012/33/EU was issued on 21 November 2013 as an addendum to the 1999 Directive. These laws are intended to improve public health and the environment, benefiting society by reducing disease, particularly respiratory problems. The first question which arises is: what fuel do ships currently use, and what fuel will they have to use to comply with the Convention? Today, large international shipping vessels consume fuel oil with a sulphur level of 3.5%. Do fuel oils exist with a sulphur level of 0.5%S? As we conclude in Chapter 4, oil companies regard marine fuel oil as a by-product of refining Brent to produce their basket of products, as the demand for fuel oil is declining in comparison to other products, and the profit margin on the sale of other petroleum products is higher. Thus, oil companies are not interested in investing in their refineries to produce low-sulphur fuel oils, and if a company should decide to invest in producing a 0.5%S fuel oil, its price would have to be very similar to that of marine gas oil in order to recoup the investment. Therefore, the only fuel which presently complies with the new levels required by the IMO is marine gas oil, which was priced on average 307 USD/tonne higher than current fuel oils during 2014. This higher purchasing price for fuel will have a direct impact on the cost of maritime transport. The entry into force of the above directive presents a challenge for the entire maritime sector. There are various alternative approaches to this situation, with different technical, operational and financial implications. At present three options are the most widespread in the sector. The first option consists of “doing nothing” and simply switching from fuel oil to marine gas oil in large ships. The second option is installing a scrubber system, which would enable ships to continue consuming fuel oil, cleaning the combustion gases before they are released to the atmosphere. And finally, the third option is using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is priced lower than marine gas oil, as a fuel. However, there is still significant uncertainty on future variations in prices, the operation and maintenance of the new technologies, the investments required, the availability of port infrastructure and even future developments in the international regulations themselves. These uncertainties mean that none of these three alternatives has been unanimously accepted by the sector. In this Thesis, after discussing all the regulations applicable to the sector in Chapter 3, we investigate their consequences. In Chapter 4 we examine whether there are currently any marine fuels on the market which meet the new sulphur limits, and if not, how much new fuels would cost. In Chapter 5, based on the hypothesis that all ships will switch from fuel oil to marine gas oil to comply with the regulations, we calculate the increase in demand for marine gas oil this would lead to, and analyse the consequences this would have on marine gas oil production in the Mediterranean. We also calculate the economic impact such a cost increase would have on Spain's external sector. To do this, we also use the Automatic Identification System (AIS) system to analyse the data of every ship stopping in any Spanish port, in order to calculate the extra cost of using marine gas oil in maritime transport for all Spain's imports and exports. Finally, in Chapter 6, we examine and compare the other two alternatives to marine gas oil, scrubbers and LNG, and in Chapter 7 we analyse the viability of investing in these two technologies in order to comply with the regulations. In Chapter 5 we explain the many existing methods for calculating a ship's fuel consumption. We use a bottom-up calculation method, based on aggregating the activity and characteristics of each type of vessel. The result is based on the installed engine power of each ship, the engine load percentage and its specific consumption. To do this, we analyse the number of ships travelling in the Mediterranean in the course of one year, using the AIS, a marine traffic monitoring system, to take “snapshots” of marine traffic in the Mediterranean and report all ships at sea on random days throughout 2014. Finally, with the above data, we calculate the potential demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean. If nothing else is done and ships begin to use marine gas oil instead of fuel oil in order to comply with the regulation, the demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean will increase by 12.12 MTA (Millions Tonnes per Annum) from 2020. This means an increase of around 3.72 billion dollars a year in fuel costs, taking as reference the average price of marine fuels in 2014. Such an increase in demand in the Mediterranean would be equivalent to 43% of the total demand for diesel in Spain in 2013, including automotive diesel fuels, biodiesel and marine gas oils, and 3.2% of European consumption of middle distillates in 2014. Would the European market be able to supply enough to meet this greater demand for diesel? Europe has always had a surplus of gasoline and a deficit of middle distillates. In 2009, Europe had to import 4.8 MTA from North America and 22.1 MTA from Asia. Therefore, this increased demand on Europe's already limited capacity for refining middle distillates would lead to increased imports and higher prices, especially in the diesel market. The sector which would suffer the greatest impact of increased demand for marine gas oil would be Mediterranean cruise ships, which represent 30.4% of the fuel demand of the entire world cruise fleet, meaning their fuel costs would rise by 386 million USD per year. ROROs in the Mediterranean, which represent 23.6% of the demand of the world fleet of this type of ship, would see their fuel costs increase by 171 million USD a year. The greatest cost increase would be among container ships, with an increase on current costs of 1.168 billion USD per year. However, their consumption in the Mediterranean represents only 5.3% of worldwide fuel consumption by container ships. These figures raise the question of whether a cost increase of this size for RORO ships would lead to short-distance marine transport in general becoming less competitive compared to other transport options on certain routes. For example, some of the goods that ships now carry could switch to road transport, with the undesirable effects on the environment and on operations that this would produce. In the particular case of Spain, the extra cost of switching to marine gas oil in all ships stopping at any Spanish port in 2013 would be 1.717 billion EUR per year, as we demonstrate in the last part of Chapter 5. For this calculation, we used the AIS system to analyse all ships which stopped at any Spanish port, classifying them by distance travelled, type of ship and engine power. This rising cost of marine transport would be passed on to the Spanish external sector, increasing the cost of imports and exports by sea in a country which relies heavily on maritime transport, which accounts for 75.61% of Spain's total imports and 53.64% of its total exports. The three industries which would be worst affected are those with goods of lower value relative to transport costs. The increased costs over the total value of each good would be 2.94% for wood and cork, 2.14% for mineral products and 1.93% for manufactured stone, cement, ceramic and glass products. Goods entering via the two Spanish archipelagos, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, would suffer the greatest impact from the extra cost of marine transport, as these ports are further away from other major ports and thus the distance travelled is greater. However, this is not the only option for compliance with the new regulations. From our readings in Chapter 6 we conclude that scrubbers and LNG propulsion would enable ships to use cheaper fuels than marine gas oil, in exchange for investing in these technologies. Would the savings gained by these new technologies be enough to justify the investment? To answer this question, in Chapter 7 we compare the three alternatives and calculate both the cost of investment and the operating costs associated with scrubbers or LNG propulsion for a selection of 53 categories of ships. Investing in scrubbers is more advisable for large ships with no fixed runs. However, for smaller ships with regular runs to ports with good LNG supply infrastructure, investing in LNG propulsion would be the best choice. In the case of total transit time within an ECA and the pricing scenario seen in 2014, the best payback periods on investments in scrubbers are for large cruise ships (100,000 gross tonnage), which would recoup their investment in 0.62 years; large container ships, with a 0.64 year payback period for those over 8,000 TEUs and 0.71 years for the 5,000-8,000 TEU category; and finally, large oil tankers over 200,000 deadweight tonnage, which would recoup their investment in 0.82 years. However, investing in scrubbers would have a longer payback period for smaller ships, up to 5 years or more for oil tankers and chemical tankers under 5,000 deadweight tonnage. In the case of LNG propulsion, a possible investment is more favourable and the payback period is shorter for smaller ship classes, such as ferries, cruise ships and ROROs. We now take the case of a ship transporting clean products, already built, with a deadweight tonnage of 38,500, and consider the viability of investing in installing a scrubber or changing to LNG propulsion, starting in 2015. The two variables with the greatest impact on the advisability of the investment are how long the ship is at sea within emission control areas (ECA) and the future price scenario of MGO, HSFO and LNG. For this analysis, we studied each investment, calculating a battery of merit conditions such as the payback period, IRR, NPV and variations in the investors' liquid assets. We then calculated the minimum boundary conditions to ensure the investment was not only acceptable but advisable for the investor shipowner. Thus, for the average price differential of 264.35 USD/tonne between HSFO and MGO during 2014, investors' return on investment (IRR) in scrubbers would be the same as the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, for values of over 56% ship transit time in ECAs. For the case of investing in LNG and the average price differential between MGO and LNG of 353.8 USD/tonne FOE in 2014, the ship must spend 64.8% of its time in ECAs for the investment to be advisable. For an estimated 60% of time in an ECA, the internal rate of return (IRR) for investors equals the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, based on a price difference of 244.73 USD/tonne between the two alternative fuels, marine gas oil (MGO) and fuel oil (HSFO). An investment in LNG propulsion would require a price differential between MGO and LNG of 382.3 USD/tonne FOE. Thus, for a 38,500 DWT ship carrying clean products, investing in retrofitting to install a scrubber is more advisable than converting to LNG, with an internal rate of return (IRR) for investors of 12.77%, compared to 6.81% for investing in LNG. Both calculations were based on a ship which spends 60% of its time at sea in an ECA and a scenario of average 2014 prices. However, for newly-built ships, investments in either of these technologies from 2025 would be advisable. Here, the shipowner must pay particular attention to the specific characteristics of their ship, the type of operation, and the infrastructure for supplying fuel and handling discharges in the ports where it will usually operate. Thus, while the consequences of switching to marine gas oil in order to comply with the MARPOL regulations are certainly alarming, there are alternatives to marine gas oil, with smaller increases in the costs of maritime transport, while maintaining the benefits to society this law is intended to provide. Indeed, as we have demonstrated, the options which appear most favourable from a financial viewpoint are conversion to LNG for small ships and regular runs (cruise ships, ferries, ROROs), and installing scrubbers for large ships. Unfortunately, however, these investments are not being made, due to the high uncertainty associated with these two markets, which increases business risk, both for shipowners and for the providers of these new technologies. This means we are seeing considerable reluctance regarding these two options among the private sector. This high level of risk can be lowered only by encouraging joint efforts by the public and private sectors to overcome these barriers to entry into the market for scrubbers and LNG, which could reduce the environmental externalities of emissions without affecting the competitiveness of marine transport. Our opinion is that the same bodies which approved this law must help the shipping industry invest in these technologies, drive research on them, and promote the creation of a port infrastructure which is adapted to supply LNG and handle the discharges from scrubber systems. At present there are several European incentive programmes, such as TEN-T and Marco Polo, but we do not consider these to be sufficient. For its part, the International Maritime Organization should confirm as soon as possible whether the new lower sulphur levels in fuels will be postponed until 2025. This would eliminate the great uncertainty among shipowners, oil companies and ports regarding the timeline for beginning their future investments and for studying their viability.

Avaliação de elementos potencialmente tóxicos em tintas

Neste trabalho são apresentados os resultados da determinação, por ICP OES, de elementos tóxicos e/ou potencialmente tóxicos (AI, Cr, Ni, Cu, Cd, As, Co e Pb) em tintas de acabamento imobiliário à base de água ou de solvente orgânico. Foram desenvolvidas e comparadas método de digestão de amostras utilizando diferentes misturas ácidas em bombas de decomposição, em fomo de microondas (sistema com radiação focalizada e com cavidade) e método de cinzas. O Método de digestão utilizando fomo de microondas com cavidade permitiu solubilização rápida e eficiente de todos os tipos de tintas testados, em tempo inferior a 35 minutos. As método apresentaram valores aceitáveis para a maioria dos elementos nos testes de adição e recuperação dos analitos. Os resíduos resultantes da digestão foram avaliados por MEV-EDS e não apresentaram os elementos estudados, comprovando a eficiência da metodologia. Mercúrio foi determinado usando um Analisador Direto de Mercúrio (DMA) e apresentou valores entre 43,0 ± 4,5 e 188 ± 9 µg Kg-1, valor considerado baixo quando comparado ao limite de 100 mg Kg-1, estabelecido na norma NRR 10004 para disposição de resíduos sólidos sem instalações especiais. O estudo da migração dos elementos para o ambiente após a exposição da tinta a agentes \"agressores\" , como raios ultravioletas e umidade, foi realizado usando câmara do tipo \"Weather-Ometer\" (envelhecimento acelerado). A avaliação dos resultados foi feita por MEV EDS e ICP OES. As micrografias de MEV mostraram que houve mudança na morfologia do polímero que foi submetido ao intemperismo acelerado. Os resultados obtidos não foram conclusivos quanto à migração dos analitos em função da baixa razão entre as massas degradada e não degradada das amostras. Uma proposta de metodologia para a avaliação por ICP OES das tintas e da disponibilidade de elementos tóxicos e potencialmente tóxicos, baseada na lixiviação de amostras secas em ambiente controlado é apresentada. São mostrados resultados de lixiviação de AI, Cr, Ni, Cu, Cd, As, Co e Pb com vários extratores e tempos diferentes de extração. Os resultados mostram que ocorre a migração de alguns elementos para as soluções estudadas e que, dos extratores avaliados, a chuva ácida apresentou maior potencial de lixiviação.

Impacts of airborne pollutants on wilderness areas along the Minnesota-Ontario border /

Mode of access: Internet.

Simulation of nutrient loss from soils due to rainfall acidity /

Bibliography: p. 43-44.

Analysis of the sulfur content of Illinois streams, with emphasis on contributions from the atmosphere /

Cover title.

Illinois climate : trends, impacts, and issues : proceedings of the 12th Annual ENR Conference, September 13-14, 1983, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois /

"March 1984."