Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

On evolutionarily stable compositions of populations of interacting genotypes.

Consider an organism in which the genetic fitness of an individual depends to a large extent on its social interactions. Assuming the genotypes to differ only in the choice of strategies they adopt in social interactions, and equating the variation in genetic fitness to the mean payoff to an individual averaged over all possible encounters, we develop a dynamical model for the evolution of genotypic frequencies in such a population. Such a system is characterised by frequency dependent selection, and depending on the initial composition, the population evolves towards one of several possible compositions. We term as evolutionarily stable compositions (ESC) any such composition towards which a population can evolve and which is stable against small fluctuations in the frequencies of existing genotypes as well as to invasions by any other postulated genotype. We state the necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification of all possible ESC's for any number of interacting genotypes. Our results conform to those derived earlier in connection with the concept of evolutionarily stable strategies only in the case of two interacting genotypes; when more than two genotypes interact the conditions under which various ESC's exist become far richer. We consider interactions with mixed strategists and show that in a conflict with pure strategists the optimal mixed strategist will be the only one to ultimately survive. We illustrate our approach by considering the specific case of a primitively social wasp.

Probabilistic Seismic Design of Pile Foundations in Non Liquefiable Soil by Response Spectrum Approach

The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.

The health professional behind the syringe: Benefits of a pharmacist vaccination program

Background: The Queensland Pharmacist Immunisation Pilot (QPIP) which ran in 2014 was Australia’s first to allow pharmacists to administer vaccinations. An aim of QPIP was to investigate the benefits of trained pharmacists administering vaccinations in a community pharmacy setting. Methods: Participant demographics and previous influenza vaccination experiences were recorded using GuildCare software. Participants also completed a ‘post-vaccination satisfaction survey’ following their influenza vaccination. Results: A total of 10,889 participant records and 8,737 satisfaction surveys were analysed. Overall, 1.9% of the participants reported living with a chronic illness, and 22.5% were taking concomitant medications. As part of the consultation before receiving the vaccine, participants acknowledged the opportunity to discuss other aspects of their health with the pharmacist, including concerns about their general health, allergies, and other medications they were taking. It was worth noting that 17.5% of people would not have received an influenza vaccination if the QPIP service was unavailable. Additionally, approximately 10% of all participants were eligible to receive a free vaccination from the National Immunisation Program, but still opted to receive their vaccine from a pharmacist. Conclusion: The findings from this pilot demonstrate the benefit of a pharmacist vaccination program in increasing vaccination rates, and have helped pave the way for expanding the scope of practice for pharmacists.

Wild dogma II: the role and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia

The studies of Allen (2011) and Allen et al. (2011) recently examined the methodology underpinning claims that dingoes provide net benefits to biodiversity by suppressing foxes and cats. They found most studies to have design flaws and/or observational methods that preclude valid interpretations from the data, describing most of the current literature as ‘wild dogma’. In this short supplement, we briefly highlight the roles and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia. We discuss nomenclature, and the influence that unreliable science can have on policy and practice changes related to apex predator management.

Distance Relay Co-ordination Using Support Vector Machines in Power Transmission System

In this paper, a new approach to enhance the transmission system distance relay co-ordination is presented. The approach depends on the apparent impedance loci seen by the distance relay during all possible disturbances. In a distance relay, the impedance loci seen at the relay location is obtained by extensive transient stability studies. Support vector machines (SVMs), a class of patterns classifiers are used in discriminating zone settings (zone-1, zone-2 and zone-3) using the signals to be used by the relay. Studies on a sample 9-bus are presented for illustrating the proposed scheme.

Levels and predictors of exercise referral scheme uptake and adherence: A systematic review

Background The effectiveness of exercise referral schemes (ERS) is influenced by uptake and adherence to the scheme. The identification of factors influencing low uptake and adherence could lead to the refinement of schemes to optimise investment. Objectives To quantify the levels of ERS uptake and adherence and to identify factors predictive of uptake and adherence. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI WOS, SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (to October 2009) and included study references were checked. Included studies were required to report at least one of the following: (1) a numerical measure of ERS uptake or adherence and (2) an estimate of the statistical association between participant demographic or psychosocial factors (eg, level of motivation, self-efficacy) or programme factors and uptake or adherence to ERS. Results Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria, six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 14 observational studies. The pooled level of uptake in ERS was 66% (95% CI 57% to 75%) across the observational studies and 81% (95% CI 68% to 94%) across the RCTs. The pooled level of ERS adherence was 49% (95% CI 40% to 59%) across the observational studies and 43% (95% CI 32% to 54%) across the RCTs. Few studies considered anything other than gender and age. Women were more likely to begin an ERS but were less likely to adhere to it than men. Older people were more likely to begin and adhere to an ERS. Limitations Substantial heterogeneity was evident across the ERS studies. Without standardised definitions, the heterogeneity may have been reflective of differences in methods of defining uptake and adherence across studies. Conclusions To enhance our understanding of the variation in uptake and adherence across ERS and how these variations might affect physical activity outcomes, future trials need to use quantitative and qualitative methods.

Promoting diet and physical activity in nurses: A systematic review

Objective: To systematically review the effectiveness of intervention studies promoting diet and physical activity (PA) in nurses. Data Source: English language manuscripts published between 1970 and 2014 in PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, and EMBASE, as well as those accessed with the PICO tool, were reviewed. Study Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria: Inclusion criteria comprised (1) nurses/student nurses working in a health care setting and (2) interventions where PA and/or diet behaviors were the primary outcome. Exclusion criteria were (1) non–peer-reviewed articles or conference abstracts and (2) interventions focused on treatment of chronic conditions or lifestyle factors other than PA or diet in nurses. Data Extraction: Seventy-one full texts were retrieved and assessed for inclusion by two reviewers. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked for accuracy by a second reviewer. Data Synthesis: Extracted data were synthesized in a tabular format and narrative summary. Results: Nine (n = 737 nurses) studies met the inclusion criteria. Quality of the studies was low to moderate. Four studies reported an increase in self-reported PA through structured exercise and goal setting. Dietary outcomes were generally positive, but were only measured in three studies with some limitations in the assessment methods. Two studies reported improved body composition without significant changes in diet or PA. Conclusions: Outcomes of interventions to change nurses' PA and diet behavior are promising, but inconsistent. Additional and higher quality interventions that include objective and validated outcome measures and appropriate process evaluation are required.

Inhibition of the biosynthesis of sterols by phenyl and phenolic compounds in rat liver

The presence of mitochondria increased the incorporation of [2-14C]mevalonate into sterols in a cell-free system from rat liver. Various phenyl and phenolic compounds inhibited the incorporation of mevalonate when added in vitro. p-Hydroxycinnamate, a metabolite of tyrosine, was the most powerful inhibitor among the compounds tested. Catechol, resorcinol and quinol were inhibitory at high concentrations. Organic acids lacking an aromatic ring were not inhibitory. Two hypocholesterolaemic drugs, Clofibrate (α-p-chlorophenoxyisobutyrate) and Clofenapate [α,4-(p-chlorophenyl)phenoxyisobutyrate], which are known to affect some step before the formation of mevalonate in the biosynthesis of cholesterol in vivo, showed inhibition at a step beyond the formation of mevalonate in vitro. The presence of the aromatic ring and the carboxyl group in a molecule appears to be necessary for the inhibition.

Isolation and characterization of 21 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri, using the Ion Torrent next-generation sequencing platform

We isolated and characterized 21 microsatellite loci in the vulnerable and iconic Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri. Loci were screened across eight individuals from the Burnett River and 40 individuals from the Pine River. Genetic diversity was low with between one and six alleles per locus within populations and a maximum expected heterozygosity of 0.774. These loci will now be available to assess effective population sizes and genetic structure in N. forsteri across its natural range in South East Queensland, Australia.

IPM in the transgenic era: a review of the challenges from emerging pests in Australian cotton systems

The Cotton Catchment Communities Cooperative Research Centre began during a period of rapid uptake of Bollgard II® cotton, which contains genes to express two Bt proteins that control the primary pests of cotton in Australia, Helicoverpa armigera and H. punctigera. The dramatic uptake of this technology presumably resulted in strong selection pressure for resistance in Helicoverpa spp. against the Bt proteins. The discovery of higher than expected levels of resistance in both species against one of the proteins in Bollgard II® cotton (Cry2Ab) led to significant re-evaluation of the resistance management plan developed for this technology, which was a core area of research for the Cotton CRC. The uptake of Bollgard II® cotton also led to a substantial decline in pesticide applications against Helicoverpa spp. (from 10–14 to 0–3 applications per season). The low spray environment allowed some pests not controlled by the Bt proteins to emerge as more significant pests, especially sucking species such as Creontiades dilutus and Nezara viridula. A range of other minor pests have also sporadically arisen as problems. Lack of knowledge and experience with these pests created uncertainty and encouraged insecticide use, which threatened to undermine the gains made with Bollgard II® cotton. Here we chronicle the achievements of the Cotton CRC in providing the industry with new knowledge and management strategies for these pests.

Two-Impurity Kondo Problem

The two-impurity Kondo problem is studied by use of perturbative scaling techniques. The physics is determined by the interplay between the Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida (RKKY) interaction between the two impurity spins and the Kondo effect. In particular, for a strong ferromagnetic RKKY interaction the susceptibility exhibits three structures as the temperature is lowered, corresponding to the ferromagnetic locking together of the two impurity spins followed by a two-stage freezing out of their local moments by the conduction electrons due to the Kondo effect.

Pathogenic Mechanisms of Polycystic Lipomembranous Osteodysplasia with Sclerosing Leukoencephalopathy (PLOSL)

PATHOGENIC MECHANISMS OF PLOSL Polycystic lipomembranous osteodysplasia with sclerosing leukoencephalopathy (PLOSL), also known as Nasu-Hakola disease, is a recessively inherited disease of brain and bone. PLOSL manifests as early-onset progressive dementia and bone fractures. Mutations in the TYROBP (DAP12) and TREM2 genes have been identified as the primary cause of PLOSL. DAP12 and TREM2 encode important signalling molecules in cells of the innate immune system. The mechanism by which loss-of-function of the DAP12/TREM2 signalling complex leads to PLOSL is currently unknown. The aim of this thesis work was to gain insight into the pathogenic mechanisms behind PLOSL. To first identify the central nervous system (CNS) cell types that express both Dap12 and Trem2, the expression patterns of Dap12 and Trem2 in mouse CNS were analyzed. Dap12 and Trem2 expression was seen from embryonic stage to adulthood and microglial cells and oligodendrocytes were identified as the major Dap12/Trem2 producing cells of the CNS. To subsequently identify the pathways and biological processes associated with DAP12/TREM2 mediated signalling in human cells, genome wide transcript analysis of in vitro differentiated dendritic cells (DCs) of PLOSL patients representing functional knockouts of either DAP12 or TREM2 was performed. Both DAP12 and TREM2 deficient cells differentiated into DCs and responded to pathogenic stimuli. However, the DCs showed morphological differences compared to control cells due to defects in the actin filaments. Transcript profiles of the patient DCs showed differential expression of genes involved in immune response and for genes earlier associated with other disorders of the CNS as well as genes involved in the remodeling of bone, linking the findings with the tissue phenotype of PLOSL patients. To analyze the effect of Dap12 deficiency in the CNS, genome wide expression analysis of Dap12 deficient mouse brain and Dap12 deficient microglia as well as functional analysis of Dap12 deficient microglia was performed. Regulation of several pathways involved in synaptic function and transcripts coding for the myelin components was seen in Dap12 knockout mice. Decreased migration, morphological changes and shortened lifespan of the Dap12 knockout microglia was further observed. Taken together, this thesis work showed that both Dap12 and Trem2 are expressed by CNS microglia and that Dap12 deficiency results in functional defects of these cells. Lack of Dap12 in the CNS also leads to synaptic abnormalities even before pathological changes are seen in the tissue level.This work further showed that loss-of-function of DAP12 or TREM2 leads to changes in morphology and gene expression in human dendritic cells. These data underline the functional diversity of the molecules of the innate immune system and implies their significant contribution also in demyelinating CNS disorders, including those resulting in dementia.

Dacomitinib versus erlotinib in patients with EGFR-mutated advanced nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC): Pooled subset analyses from two randomized trials

Background: The irreversible epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitors have demonstrated efficacy in NSCLC patients with activating EGFR mutations, but it is unknown if they are superior to the reversible inhibitors. Dacomitinib is an oral, small-molecule irreversible inhibitor of all enzymatically active HER family tyrosine kinases. Methods: The ARCHER 1009 (NCT01360554) and A7471028 (NCT00769067) studies randomized patients with locally advanced/metastatic NSCLC following progression with one or two prior chemotherapy regimens to dacomitinib or erlotinib. EGFR mutation testing was performed centrally on archived tumor samples. We pooled patients with exon 19 deletion and L858R EGFR mutations from both studies to compare the efficacy of dacomitinib to erlotinib. Results: One hundred twenty-one patients with any EGFR mutation were enrolled; 101 had activating mutations in exon 19 or 21. For patients with exon19/21 mutations, the median progression-free survival was 14.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.0–18.2] with dacomitinib and 9.6 months (95% CI 7.4–12.7) with erlotinib [unstratified hazard ratio (HR) 0.717 (95% CI 0.458–1.124), two-sided log-rank, P = 0.146]. The median survival was 26.6 months (95% CI 21.6–41.5) with dacomitinib versus 23.2 months (95% CI 16.0–31.8) with erlotinib [unstratified HR 0.737 (95% CI 0.431–1.259), two-sided log-rank, P = 0.265]. Dacomitinib was associated with a higher incidence of diarrhea and mucositis in both studies compared with erlotinib. Conclusions: Dacomitinib is an active agent with comparable efficacy to erlotinib in the EGFR mutated patients. The subgroup with exon 19 deletion had favorable outcomes with dacomitinib. An ongoing phase III study will compare dacomitinib to gefitinib in first-line therapy of patients with NSCLC harboring common activating EGFR mutations (ARCHER 1050; NCT01774721). Clinical trials number: ARCHER 1009 (NCT01360554) and A7471028 (NCT00769067).

Measurement of the kT Distribution of Particles in Jets Produced in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We present a measurement of the transverse momentum with respect to the jet axis (kt) of particles in jets produced in pp̅ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV. Results are obtained for charged particles in a cone of 0.5 radians around the jet axis in events with dijet invariant masses between 66 and 737  GeV/c2. The experimental data are compared to theoretical predictions obtained for fragmentation partons within the framework of resummed perturbative QCD using the modified leading log and next-to-modified leading log approximations. The comparison shows that trends in data are successfully described by the theoretical predictions, indicating that the perturbative QCD stage of jet fragmentation is dominant in shaping basic jet characteristics.