Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

Urban water sustainability: framework and application

Urban areas such as megacities (those with populations greater than 10 million) are hotspots of global water use and thus face intense water management challenges. Urban areas are influenced by local interactions between human and natural systems and interact with distant systems through flows of water, food, energy, people, information, and capital. However, analyses of water sustainability and the management of water flows in urban areas are often fragmented. There is a strong need to apply integrated frameworks to systematically analyze urban water dynamics and factors that influence these dynamics. We apply the framework of telecoupling (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) to analyze urban water issues, using Beijing as a demonstration megacity. Beijing exemplifies the global water sustainability challenge for urban settings. Like many other cities, Beijing has experienced drastic reductions in quantity and quality of both surface water and groundwater over the past several decades; it relies on the import of real and virtual water from sending systems to meet its demand for clean water, and releases polluted water to other systems (spillover systems). The integrative framework we present demonstrates the importance of considering socioeconomic and environmental interactions across telecoupled human and natural systems, which include not only Beijing (the water-receiving system) but also water-sending systems and spillover systems. This framework helps integrate important components of local and distant human–nature interactions and incorporates a wide range of local couplings and telecouplings that affect water dynamics, which in turn generate significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences, including feedback effects. The application of the framework to Beijing reveals many research gaps and management needs. We also provide a foundation to apply the telecoupling framework to better understand and manage water sustainability in other cities around the world.

Democracy on the Edge: Limits and Possibilities in the Implementation of an Urban Reform Agenda in Brazil

The 1990s in Brazil were a time of institutional advances in the areas of housing and urban rights following the signing of the new constitution in 1988 that incorporated the principles of the social function of cities and property, recognition of the right to ownership of informal urban squatters and the direct participation of citizens in urban policy decision processes. These propositions are the pillars of the urban reform agenda which, since the creation of the Ministry of Cities by the Lula government, has come under the federal executive branch. This article evaluates the limitations and opportunities involved in implementing this agenda on the basis of two policies proposed by the ministry - the National Cities Council and the campaign for Participatory Master Plans - focusing the analysis on government organization in the area of urban development in its relationship with the political system and the characteristics of Brazilian democracy. Resume Au Bresil, les annees 1990 ont ete marquees par des progres institutionnels en matiere de logement et de droits urbains, dans le sillage de la Constitution de 1988 qui integre les principes d`une fonction sociale de la ville et de la propriete urbaine, ainsi que la reconnaissance du droit a la propriete pour les squatters urbains et la participation directe des citoyens aux processus d`elaboration des politiques urbaines. Ce sont egalement les piliers du programme de reforme urbaine qui releve de l`executif federal depuis la creation d`un ministere des Villes par le gouvernement Lula. Pour evaluer les limites et potentiels lies a la mise en place de ce programme, cet article s`appuie sur deux politiques publiques proposees par le ministere, le Conseil national des villes et la campagne en faveur des Plans directeurs participatifs, en analysant plus particulierement l`organisation gouvernementale en matiere d`urbanisme par rapport au systeme politique et aux caracteristiques de la democratie bresilienne.

Human capital and regional development

We investigate the determinants of regional development using a newly constructed database of 1569 sub-national regions from 110 countries covering 74 percent of the world s surface and 97 percent of its GDP. We combine the cross-regional analysis of geographic, institutional, cultural, and human capital determinants of regional development with an examination of productivity in several thousand establishments located in these regions. To organize the discussion, we present a new model of regional development that introduces into a standard migration framework elements of both the Lucas (1978) model of the allocation of talent between entrepreneurship and work, and the Lucas (1988) model of human capital externalities. The evidence points to the paramount importance of human capital in accounting for regional differences in development, but also suggests from model estimation and calibration that entrepreneurial inputs and possibly human capital externalities help understand the data.

Diversity and regional inequalities: Assessing the outcomes of the Spanish 'System of Health Care Services'

The consolidation of a universal health system coupled with a process of regionaldevolution characterise the institutional reforms of the National Health System(NHS) in Spain in the last two decades. However, scarce empirical evidence hasbeen reported on the effects of both changes in health inputs, outputs andoutcomes, both at the country and at the regional level. This paper examinesthe empirical evidence on regional diversity, efficiency and inequality ofthese changes in the Spanish NHS using cross-correlation, panel data andexpenditure decomposition analysis. Results suggest that besides significantheterogeneity, once we take into account region-specific needs there is evidenceof efficiency improvements whilst inequalities in inputs and outcomes, althoughmore visible , do not appear to have increased in the last decade. Therefore,the devolution process in the Spanish Health System offers an interesting casefor the experimentation of health reforms related to regional diversity butcompatible with the nature of a public NHS, with no sizeable regionalinequalitiest.

Trade, migration and regional unemployment

We formulate a dynamic core-periphery model with frictions in the job matching process to study the interplay between trade costs, migration and regional unemploymentin the short- and long-run. We find that the spatial distribution of unemployment mirrors (inversely) the distribution of economic activities. Further, we highlight a contrast between the short-run and the long-run effects of trade-induced migration on regional unemployment. In particular, an inßow of immigrants from the periphery into the core reduces the unemployment gap in the short-run, but exacerbates unemployment disparities in the long-run.

European research funding and regional technological capabilities: Network composition analysis

We use network and correspondence analysis to describe the compositionof the research networks in the European BRITE--EURAM program. Our mainfinding is that 27\% of the participants in this program fall into one oftwo sets of highly ``interconnected'' institutions --one centered aroundlarge firms (with smaller firms and research centers providing specializedservices), and the other around universities--. Moreover, these ``hubs''are composed largely of institutions coming from the technologically mostadvanced regions of Europe. This is suggestive of the difficulties of attainingEuropean ``cohesion'', as technically advanced institutions naturally linkwith partners of similar technological capabilities.

Human capital spillovers, productivity and regional convergence in Spain

This paper analyses the differential impact of human capital, in terms of different levels of schooling, on regional productivity and convergence. The potential existence of geographical spillovers of human capital is also considered by applying spatial panel data techniques. The empirical analysis of Spanish provinces between 1980 and 2007 confirms the positive impact of human capital on regional productivity and convergence, but reveals no evidence of any positive geographical spillovers of human capital. In fact, in some specifications the spatial lag presented by tertiary studies has a negative effect on the variables under consideration.

Geography of talent and regional differences in Spain

Tentative empirical evidence suggests that the agglomeration of talent contributes to regional development. However, given that talented people are not evenly distributed across regions, this paper seeks to determine how the concentration of talent affects patterns of regional development. Here, we empirically evaluate the effects of the distribution of talent on regional differences by means of a detailed analysis of the 17 Autonomous Communities of Spain between 1996 and 2004. We hypothesise that regions specialising in strategic sectors that are creative and which can be assumed to enjoy rapid growth in productivity will experience faster rates of development and, in turn, that this concentration of talent will have a positive impact on the region’s economic performance. Thus, we believe that this mechanism can explain the marked regional imbalances in Spain. Our findings confirm that regional differences, measured in terms of GDP per capita and by, - industrial and service- oriented production, are influenced by the Communities’ talent bases as determined by, educational attainment and employment in assumed to be strategic for regional development, inasmuch as these sectors provide economic specialization.