A Note on the Asymptotic Variance of Survival Function in the Semi-Markov Model

In Malani and Neilsen (1992) we have proposed alternative estimates of survival function (for time to disease) using a simple marker that describes time to some intermediate stage in a disease process. In this paper we derive the asymptotic variance of one such proposed estimator using two different methods and compare terms of order 1/n when there is no censoring. In the absence of censoring the asymptotic variance obtained using the Greenwood type approach converges to exact variance up to terms involving 1/n. But the asymptotic variance obtained using the theory of the counting process and results from Voelkel and Crowley (1984) on semi-Markov processes has a different term of order 1/n. It is not clear to us at this point why the variance formulae using the latter approach give different results.

The impact of a low-frequency chlorhexidine rinsing schedule on the subgingival microbiota (the TEETH clinical trial)

BACKGROUND: Information on the efficacy of chlorhexidine (CHX) rinsing on the subgingival microbiota is limited. This study tested if intermittent CHX rinsing over 5 years had an impact on the subgingival microbiota. METHODS: Subgingival plaque samples were analyzed by the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method in a double-blind randomized CHX rinse study. RESULTS: A total of 210 subjects were included. The mean age of the subjects was 71.7 (+/- 4.1) years, and 56.2% were women. Evidence of alveolar bone loss was found in 39% of subjects. Bacterial loads were not correlated significantly with probing depth. At year 5, subjects in the CHX rinse group with no evidence of bone loss presented with lower total bacterial counts than control subjects with no bone loss. The levels of the following bacteria were significantly lower in the CHX group: Lactobacillus acidophilus (P <0.05), Eikenella corrodens (P <0.05), Fusobacterium nucleatum sp. nucleatum (P <0.01), Treponema denticola (P <0.05), Leptotrichia buccalis (P <0.05), and Eubacterium saburreum (P <0.05). No differences in bacterial loads were found between CHX and control rinse subjects with alveolar bone loss. CONCLUSIONS: Older subjects with or without periodontitis carry a large variety of bacteria associated with periodontitis. Intermittent rinsing with CHX may provide a preventive benefit in reducing levels of bacteria but only in subjects without alveolar bone loss.

The synergistic action of a VEGF-receptor tyrosine-kinase inhibitor and a sensitizing PDGF-receptor blocker depends upon the stage of vascular maturation

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of tyrosine-kinase inhibitors of vascular endothelial growth factor (VECF) and platelet-derived growth factor (PDCF)-receptors on non-malignant tissue and whether they depend upon the stage of vascular maturation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PTK787/ZK222584 and CGP53716 (VEGF- and PDGF-receptor inhibitor respectively), both alone and combined, were applied on chicken chorioallantoic membrane (CAM). RESULTS: On embryonic day of CAM development (E)8, only immature microvessels, which lack coverage of pericytes, are present: whereas the microvessels on E12 have pericytic coverage. This development was reflected in the expression levels of pericytic markers (alpha-smooth muscle actin, PDGF-receptor beta and desmin), which were found by immunoblotting to progressively increase between E8 and E12. Monotherapy with 2 microg of PTK787/ZK222584 induced significant vasodegeneration on E8, but not on E12. Monotherapy with CGP53716 affected only pericytes. When CGP53716 was applied prior to treatment with 2 microg of PTK787/ZK222584, vasodegeneration occurred also on E12. The combined treatment increased the apoptotic rate. as evidenced by the cDNA levels of caspase-9 and the TUNEL-assay. CONCLUSION: Anti-angiogenic treatment strategies for non-neoplastic disorders should aim to interfere with the maturation stage of the target vessels: monotherapy with VEGF-receptor inhibitor for immature vessels, and combined anti-angiogenic treatment for well developed mature vasculature.

The influence of measles vaccination on the incidence of otosclerosis in Germany

The pathologic process of otosclerosis is characterized by an inflammatory lytic phase followed by an abnormal bone remodeling at very specific sites of predilection. There is a clear genetic predisposition with about half of all cases occurring in families with more than one affected member. Females are affected more frequently than males with an approximate 2:1 ratio. N, H, and F measles proteins as well as measles virus RNA have been demonstrated in osteoblasts, chondroblasts, and macrophages of the inflammatory phase of the disease. These observations merely show an association between measles viruses and otosclerosis. In the present study, we tried to prove that there is a causal relationship: voluntary measles vaccination has been available in Germany since 1974. In the absence of official data, we reconstructed the rate of vaccination coverage between 1974 and 2004 using information from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI, Berlin) and from the literature. From the German Federal Office of Statistics, we received the data of 64,112 patients who had been hospitalized between 1993 and 2004 and in whom otosclerosis (ICD-9: 387; ICD-10: H80) had been confirmed. We calculated the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the period from 1993 to 2004 in Germany. For this purpose, we divided the female and male otosclerosis patients treated as inpatients each year in the observation period into two age groups: those up to 25 years, who had in most cases been vaccinated (designated below as "vaccinated patients") and those over 25 years who mostly could not have been vaccinated (designated below as "unvaccinated patients"). We calculated the incidence of otosclerosis requiring inpatient treatment for the two age groups in each year in the period of observation. For external validation of the study results, the same analysis was carried out in all patients who received inpatient treatment for otitis media in the same period. Between 1993 and 2004 the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis decreased to a significantly greater extent in the vaccinated patients than in the unvaccinated patients. The decline is much greater in men than in women. A comparable effect cannot be demonstrated in patients with otitis media. The results indicate that measles vaccination in Germany has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the vaccinated age groups. We conclude that there is a causal relationship between measles viruses and the development of otosclerosis.

New constraints on the gas age-ice age difference along the EPICA ice cores, 0-50 kyr

Gas is trapped in polar ice sheets at ~50–120 m below the surface and is therefore younger than the surrounding ice. Firn densification models are used to evaluate this ice age-gas age difference (Δage) in the past. However, such models need to be validated by data, in particular for periods colder than present day on the East Antarctic plateau. Here we bring new constraints to test a firn densification model applied to the EPICA Dome C (EDC) site for the last 50 kyr, by linking the EDC ice core to the EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice core, both in the ice phase (using volcanic horizons) and in the gas phase (using rapid methane variations). We also use the structured 10Be peak, occurring 41 kyr before present (BP) and due to the low geomagnetic field associated with the Laschamp event, to experimentally estimate the Δage during this event. Our results seem to reveal an overestimate of the Δage by the firn densification model during the last glacial period at EDC. Tests with different accumulation rates and temperature scenarios do not entirely resolve this discrepancy. Although the exact reasons for the Δage overestimate at the two EPICA sites remain unknown at this stage, we conclude that current densification model simulations have deficits under glacial climatic conditions. Whatever the cause of the Δage overestimate, our finding suggests that the phase relationship between CO2 and EDC temperature previously inferred for the start of the last deglaciation (lag of CO2 by 800±600 yr) seems to be overestimated.

Life-patterns on the periphery : a humanities base for development imperatives and their application in the Chicago city-region

Life-Patterns on the Periphery: A Humanities Base for Development Imperatives and their Application in the Chicago City-Region is informed by the need to bring diverse fields together in order to tackle issues related to the contemporary city-region. By honouring the long-term economic, social, political, and ecological imperatives that form the fabric of healthy, productive, sustainable communities, it becomes possible to setup political structures and citizen will to develop distinct places that result in the overlapping of citizen life patterns, setting the stage for citizen action and interaction. Based in humanities scholarship, the four imperatives act as checks on each other so that no one imperative is solely honoured in development. Informed by Heidegger, Arendt, deCerteau, Casey, and others, their foundation in the humanities underlines their importance, while at the same time creating a stage where all fields can contribute to actualizing this balance in practice. For this project, theoretical assistance has been greatly borrowed from architecture, planning theory, urban theory, and landscape urbanism, including scholarship from Saskia Sassen, John Friedmann, William Cronon, Jane Jacobs, Joel Garreau, Alan Berger, and many others. This project uses the Chicago city-region as a site, specifically the Interstate 80 and 88 corridors extending west from Chicago. Both transportation corridors are divided into study regions, providing the opportunity to examine a broad variety of population and development densities. Through observational research, a picture of each study region can be extrapolated, analyzed, and understood with respect to the four imperatives. This is put to use in this project by studying region-specific suggestions for future development moves, culminating in some universal steps that can be taken to develop stronger communities and set both the research site specifically and North American city-regions in general on a path towards healthy, productive, sustainable development.

Gender on the Range: Feminine Strategies in the 1913 Michigan Copper Strike

In the autumn of 1913, a small, remote Michigan mining community attracted national attention as miners and management found themselves embroiled in a conflict that would prove no easy victory for either side. The strike came as a shock to management, who, with the help of a nearly perfected paternal system, had come to expect a generally docile and compliant workforce. But what was even more shocking was the involvement of the miners’ wives in the strike effort, and the lengths they went to in order to keep men from crossing the picket line. This paper focuses on that effort, arguing that the women of the Michigan copper country developed strike strategies that were derived from their domestic experience, and justified their involvement through maternal arguments. However, these public actions allowed the management to disregard the respect and courtesy generally given to the domestic sphere as police and private agents perpetrated a number of home invasions in an attempt to break the strike. The involvement of women in male dominated labor disputes (mining, steel productions) has been largely ignored in the literature due to their indirect connection to the company as wives and not workers. This paper seeks to remedy this gap, and gain a better understanding of that indirect relationship. Sources include newspaper articles, private correspondence, public investigation records, and oral histories, found largely in the Michigan Tech Archives and Copper Country Historical Collections, Michigan Technological University, Michigan.

[Treatment of the aortic valve and ascending aorta. The significance of reconstructive methods on the aortic root]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The standard surgical repair of disease of the aortic valve and the ascending aorta has been combined replacement, which includes the disadvantage of inserting a mechanical valve. We have investigated an individualized approach which preserves the native valve. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between October 1995 and October 1997, a consecutive total of 101 patients (72 men, 29 women, aged 21-83 years) underwent operations for disease of the ascending aorta: aortic dissection type A in 34 patients, aneurysmal dilatation in 67. Dilatation of the aortic arch was associated with aortic regurgitation in 58 patients. There were 11 patients with aortic valve stenosis or previously implanted aortic valve prosthesis among a total of 46 whose aortic valve was replaced (group II). Supracommissural aortic replacement with a Dacron tube was performed in 16 patients (group I) with normal valve cusps and an aortic root diameter < 3.5 cm. In 28 patients with an aortic root diameter of 3.5-5.0 cm the aortic root was remodelled (group III). Resuspension of the native aortic valve was undertaken in 11 patients with aortic root dilatation of > 5.0 cm (group IV). RESULTS: Operative intervention was electively performed in 72 patients, without any death. Of 29 patients operated as an emergency for acute type A dissection four died (14%). In 55 of the 58 patients with aortic regurgitation in proved possible to preserve native aortic valve (95%). In the early postoperative phase and after an average follow-up time of 11.8 months, transthoracic echocardiography demonstrated good aortic valve function, except in one patient each of groups III and IV who developed aortic regurgitation grades I or II. CONCLUSION: The described individualized approach makes it possible to preserve the native aortic valve in most patients with aortic regurgitation, at a low risk. Follow-up observations so far indicate good results of the reconstruction.

Does pregnancy have an impact on the subgingival microbiota?

BACKGROUND: We investigated clinical and subgingival microbiologic changes during pregnancy in 20 consecutive pregnant women > or =18 years not receiving dental care. METHODS: Bacterial samples from weeks 12, 28, and 36 of pregnancy and at 4 to 6 weeks postpartum were processed for 37 species by checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization. Clinical periodontal data were collected at week 12 and at 4 to 6 weeks postpartum, and bleeding on probing (BOP) was recorded at sites sampled at the four time points. RESULTS: The mean BOP at week 12 and postpartum was 40.1% +/- 18.2% and 27.4% +/- 12.5%, respectively. The corresponding mean BOP at microbiologic test sites was 15% (week 12) and 21% (postpartum; not statistically significant). Total bacterial counts decreased between week 12 and postpartum (P <0.01). Increased bacterial counts over time were found for Neisseria mucosa (P <0.001). Lower counts (P <0.001) were found for Capnocytophaga ochracea, Capnocytophaga sputigena, Eubacterium saburreum, Fusobacterium nucleatum naviforme, Fusobacterium nucleatum polymorphum, Leptotrichia buccalis, Parvimonas micra (previously Peptostreptococcus micros or Micromonas micros), Prevotella intermedia, Prevotella melaninogenica, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus anginosus, Streptococcus intermedius, Streptococcus mutans, Streptococcus oralis, Streptococcus sanguinis, Selenomonas noxia, and Veillonella parvula. No changes occurred between weeks 12 and 28 of pregnancy. Counts of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (previously Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans), Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia (previously T. forsythensis), and Treponema denticola did not change. Counts of P. gingivalis and T. forsythia at week 12 were associated with gingivitis (P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Subgingival levels of bacteria associated with periodontitis did not change. P. gingivalis and T. forsythia counts were associated with BOP at week 12. A decrease was found in 17 of 37 species from week 12 to postpartum. Only counts of N. mucosa increased.

Differential effects of anti-hypertensive treatment on the retinal microcirculation: an Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT) sub- study

Changes in the retinal microcirculation are associated with hypertension and predict cardiovascular mortality. There are few data describing the impact of antihypertensive therapy on retinal vascular changes. This substudy of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial compared the effects of an amlodipine-based regimen (373 patients) with an atenolol-based regimen (347 patients) on retinal microvascular measurements made from fundus photographs. The retinal photographs were taken at a stage in the trial when treatments were stable and blood pressure was well controlled. Amlodipine-based treatment was associated with a smaller arteriolar length:diameter ratio than atenolol-based treatment (13.32 [10.75 to 16.04] versus 14.12 [11.27 to 17.81], median [interquartile range]; P<0.01). The association remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, body mass index, smoking, and statin treatment. This effect appeared to be largely attributable to shorter retinal arteriolar segment lengths in the amlodipine-treated group and is best explained by the vasodilator effects of amlodipine causing the visible emergence of branching side vessels. Photographic assessment of the retinal vascular network may be a useful approach to evaluating microvascular structural responses in clinical trials of antihypertensive therapy.

Transfer of spatial knowledge from a virtual environment to reality: Impact of route complexity and subject’s strategy on the exploration mode

The use of virtual reality as tool in the area of spatial cognition raises the question of the quality of learning transfer from a virtual to a real environment. It is first necessary to determine with healthy subjects, the cognitive aids that improve the quality of transfer and the conditions required, especially since virtual reality can be used as effective tool in cognitive rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of the exploration mode of virtual environment (Passive vs. Active) according to Route complexity (Simple vs. Complex) on the quality of spatial knowledge transfer in three spatial tasks. Ninety subjects (45 men and 45 women) participated. Spatial learning was evaluated by Wayfinding, sketch-mapping and picture classification tasks in the context of the Bordeaux district. In the Wayfinding task, results indicated that active learning in a Virtual Environment (VE) increased the performances compared to the passive learning condition, irrespective of the route complexity factor. In the Sketch-mapping task, active learning in a VE helped the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge from the VE to reality, but only when the route was complex. In the Picture classification task, active learning in a VE when the route was complex did not help the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge. These results are explained in terms of knowledge levels and frame/strategy of reference [SW75, PL81, TH82].

Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

The cement prosthesis-like spacer: an intermediate halt on the road to healing.

BACKGROUND Periprosthetic infections remain a devastating problem in the field of joint arthroplasty. In the following study, the results of a two-stage treatment protocol for chronic periprosthetic infections using an intraoperatively molded cement prosthesis-like spacer (CPLS) are presented. METHODS Seventy-five patients with chronically infected knee prosthesis received a two-stage revision procedure with the newly developed CPLS between June 2006 and June 2011. Based on the microorganism involved, patients were grouped into either easy to treat (ETT) or difficult to treat (DTT) and treated accordingly. Range of motion (ROM) and the knee society score (KSS) were utilized for functional assessment. RESULTS Mean duration of the CPLS implant in the DTT group was 3.6 months (range 3-5 months) and in the ETT group 1.3 months (range 0.7-2.5 months). Reinfection rates of the final prosthesis were 9.6% in the ETT and 8.3% in the DTT group with no significant difference between both groups regarding ROM or KSS (P = 0.87, 0.64, resp.). CONCLUSION The results show that ETT patients do not necessitate the same treatment protocol as DTT patients to achieve the same goal, emphasizing the need to differentiate between therapeutic regimes. We also highlight the feasibility of CLPS in two-stage protocols.

Effects of Gender on the Incidence of Cardiac Tamponade Following Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation: Results from a Worldwide Survey in 34,943 AF Ablation Procedures.

BACKGROUND -Cardiac tamponade is the most dramatic complication observed during atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation and the leading cause of procedure-related mortality. Female gender is a known risk factor for complications during AF ablation; however, it is unknown whether women have a higher risk of tamponade. METHODS AND RESULTS -A systematic Medline search was used to locate academic electrophysiologic (EP) centers that reported cases of tamponade occurring during AF ablation. Centers were asked to provide information on cases of acute tamponade according to gender and their mode of management including any case of related mortality. Nineteen EP centers provided information on 34,943 ablation procedures involving 25,261 (72%) males. Overall 289 (0.9%) cases of tamponade were reported: 120 (1.24%) in females and 169 (0.67%) in males (odds ratio 1.83, P<0.001). There was a reciprocal association between center volume and the occurrence of tamponade with substantial lower risk in high volume centers. Most cases of tamponade occurred during catheter manipulation or ablation; females tended to develop more tamponades during transseptal catheterization. No gender difference in the mode of management was observed. However, 16% cases of tamponade required surgery with lower rates in high volume centers. Three cases of tamponade (1%) culminated in death. CONCLUSIONS -Tamponade during AF ablation procedures is relatively rare. Women have an almost twofold higher risk for developing this complication. The risk of tamponade among women decreases substantially in high volume centers. Surgical back-up and acute management skills for treating tamponade are important in centers performing AF ablation.

Benefit of pulmonary vein isolation guided by loss of pace capture on the ablation line: results from a prospective 2-center randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES This study was conducted to determine if an additional procedural endpoint of unexcitability (UE) to pacing along the ablation line reduces recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial tachycardia (AT) after radiofrequency catheter ablation. BACKGROUND AF/AT recurrence is common after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). METHODS We included 102 patients from 2 centers (age 63 ± 10 years; 33 women; left atrium 38 ± 7 mm; left ventricular ejection fraction 61 ± 6%) with symptomatic paroxysmal AF. A 3-dimensional mapping system and circumferential mapping catheter were used in all patients for PVI. In group 1 (n = 50), the procedural endpoint was bidirectional block across the ablation line. In group 2 (n = 52), additional UE to bipolar pacing at an output of 10 mA and 2-ms pulse width was required. The primary endpoint was freedom from any AF/AT (>30 s) after discontinuation of antiarrhythmic drugs. RESULTS Procedural endpoints were successfully achieved in all patients. Procedure duration was significantly longer in group 2 (185 ± 58 min vs. 139 ± 57 min; p < 0.001); however, fluoroscopy times were not different (23 ± 9 min vs. 23 ± 9 min; p = 0.49). After a follow-up of 12 months in all patients, 26 patients (52%) in group 1 versus 43 (82.7%) in group 2 were free from any AF/AT (p = 0.001) after a single procedure. No major complications occurred. CONCLUSIONS The use of pacing to ensure UE along the PVI line markedly improved near-term single-procedure success, compared with demonstration of bidirectional block alone. This additional endpoint significantly improved patient outcomes after PVI. (Unexcitability Along the Ablation as an Endpoint for Atrial Fibrillation Ablation; NCT01724437).