Empirical Analysis of Competition in Procurement Auctions

A vast amount of public services and goods are contracted through procurement auctions. Therefore it is very important to design these auctions in an optimal way. Typically, we are interested in two different objectives. The first objective is efficiency. Efficiency means that the contract is awarded to the bidder that values it the most, which in the procurement setting means the bidder that has the lowest cost of providing a service with a given quality. The second objective is to maximize public revenue. Maximizing public revenue means minimizing the costs of procurement. Both of these goals are important from the welfare point of view. In this thesis, I analyze field data from procurement auctions and show how empirical analysis can be used to help design the auctions to maximize public revenue. In particular, I concentrate on how competition, which means the number of bidders, should be taken into account in the design of auctions. In the first chapter, the main policy question is whether the auctioneer should spend resources to induce more competition. The information paradigm is essential in analyzing the effects of competition. We talk of a private values information paradigm when the bidders know their valuations exactly. In a common value information paradigm, the information about the value of the object is dispersed among the bidders. With private values more competition always increases the public revenue but with common values the effect of competition is uncertain. I study the effects of competition in the City of Helsinki bus transit market by conducting tests for common values. I also extend an existing test by allowing bidder asymmetry. The information paradigm seems to be that of common values. The bus companies that have garages close to the contracted routes are influenced more by the common value elements than those whose garages are further away. Therefore, attracting more bidders does not necessarily lower procurement costs, and thus the City should not implement costly policies to induce more competition. In the second chapter, I ask how the auctioneer can increase its revenue by changing contract characteristics like contract sizes and durations. I find that the City of Helsinki should shorten the contract duration in the bus transit auctions because that would decrease the importance of common value components and cheaply increase entry which now would have a more beneficial impact on the public revenue. Typically, cartels decrease the public revenue in a significant way. In the third chapter, I propose a new statistical method for detecting collusion and compare it with an existing test. I argue that my test is robust to unobserved heterogeneity unlike the existing test. I apply both methods to procurement auctions that contract snow removal in schools of Helsinki. According to these tests, the bidding behavior of two of the bidders seems consistent with a contract allocation scheme.

Funktionaalinen Transitioteoria : Hallinto, Instituutiot ja Oikeusjärjestys Venäjällä

Functional transition theory: administration, legal order and institutions in Russia This dissertation examines some of the salient characteristics of Russia that are deemed to have impeded the growth of its economy and investments in particular. These characteristics are the volatility of the administrative and legal systems, corruption, and the perceived irrationality and difference in the operating environment in comparison with European conditions. The dissertation is one of the first studies on Russia that approaches the subject from the perspective of comprehensive social scientific theories. The study is based on the structural functionalistic theory, which is widely used in the social sciences. Adopting a sufficiently ambitious theoretical examination will provide a systematic and logical explanation of the characteristics of Russian institutions and ways of operations, such as corruption, that are commonly perceived as inexplicable. The approach adopted in the dissertation sheds light on the history of Russia's development and provides a comparative view of other societies in transition. Furthermore, it suggests recommendations as to how the structures of Russian society could be comprehensively strengthened.

Essays on Finnish Economic Growth and Productivity, 1860-2005

This study examines Finnish economic growth. The key driver of economic growth was productivity. And the major engine of productivity growth was technology, especially the general purpose technologies (GPTs) electricity and ICT. A new GPT builds on previous knowledge, yet often in an uncertain, punctuated, fashion. Economic history, as well as the Finnish data analyzed in this study, teaches that growth is not a smooth process but is subject to episodes of sharp acceleration and deceleration which are associated with the arrival, diffusion and exhaustion of new general purpose technologies. These are technologies that affect the whole economy by transforming both household life and the ways in which firms conduct business. The findings of previous research, that Finnish economic growth exhibited late industrialisation and significant structural changes were corroborated by this study. Yet, it was not solely a story of manufacturing and structural change was more the effect of than the cause for economic growth. We offered an empirical resolution to the Artto-Pohjola paradox as we showed that a high rate of return on capital was combined with low capital productivity growth. This result is important in understanding Finnish economic growth 1975-90. The main contribution of this thesis was the growth accounting results on the impact of ICT on growth and productivity, as well as the comparison of electricity and ICT. It was shown that ICT s contribution to GDP growth was almost twice as large as electricity s contribution over comparable periods of time. Finland has thus been far more successful as an ICT producer than a producer of electricity. Unfortunately in the use of ICT the results were still more modest than for electricity. During the end of the period considered in this thesis, Finland switched from resource-based to ICT-based growth. However, given the large dependency on the ICT-producing sector, the ongoing outsourcing of ICT production to low wage countries provides a threat to productivity performance in the future. For a developed country only change is constant and history teaches us that it is likely that Finland is obliged to reorganize its economy once again in the digital era.

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

In pursuit of becoming a senior coach: The learning culture for Australian Football League coaches

- Background and Purpose Given the turbulent and highly contested environment in which professional coaches work, a prime concern to coach developers is how coaches learn their craft. Understanding the learning and development of senior coaches (SCs) and assistant coaches (ACs) in the Australian Football League (AFL – the peak organisation for Australian Rules Football) is important to better develop the next generation of performance coaches. Hence the focus of this research was to examine the learning of SC and AC in the AFL. Fundamental to this research was an understanding that the AFL and each club within the league be regarded as learning organisations and workplaces with their own learning cultures where learning takes place. The purpose of this paper was to examine the learning culture for AFL coaches. - Method Five SCs, 6 ACs, and 5 administrators (4 of whom were former coaches) at 11 of the 16 AFL clubs were recruited for the research project. First, demographic data were collected for each participant (e.g. age, playing and coaching experience, development and coach development activities). Second, all participants were involved in one semi-structured interview of between 45 and 90 minutes duration. An interpretative (hierarchical content) analysis of the interview data was conducted to identify key emergent themes. - Results Learning was central to AFL coaches becoming a SC. Nevertheless, coaches reported a sense of isolation and a lack of support in developing their craft within their particular learning culture. These coaches developed a unique dynamic social network (DSN) that involved episodic contact with a number of respected confidantes often from diverse fields (used here in the Bourdieuian sense) in developing their coaching craft. Although there were some opportunities in their workplace, much of their learning was unmediated by others, underscoring the importance of their agentic engagement in limited workplace affordances. - Conclusion The variety of people accessed for the purposes of learning (often beyond the immediate workplace) and the long time taken to establish networks of supporters meant that a new way of describing the social networks of AFL coaches was needed; DSN. However, despite the acknowledged utility of learning from others, all coaches reported some sense of isolation in their learning. The sense of isolation brought about by professional volatility in high-performance Australian Football offers an alternative view on Hodkinson, Biesta and James' attempt in overcoming dualisms in learning.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Trickle Down

This work expresses the complicated and cyclical sense of economic aspiration and ambivalence so prevalent in the lived experience of contemporary capitalism. The three-channel video animation depicts a single US dollar bill falling in a dark void-space. These fragments of negotiable value, evidence of a laborious hand-drawn process, tumble in slow-motion into and out of each video frame, towards an unseen ground and uncertain future, acting as an elegiac expression of a deep sense of economic precarity.

Running men: The precarious, paranoid body in screen culture

This paper discusses my video installation Running Men as an example of how an artist’s appropriative engagements with screen images of the perilous body can reflect the technological zeitgeist of the last hundred years but also create a space of meditative and mediated reflection in Slavoj Žižek’s “endlessness” of the present-future. In this artwork, iconic male characters from Hollywood films are recontextualised to create infinitely looping scenes of running; trapping the characters in a kind of Nietchzen eternal recurrence that suspends them between impending violence and uncertain futures. Stemming primarily from my investigation into anxiety as a shared social experience, one perhaps primed by the increasing intensity of visual culture in the 21st century, these digitally reconfigured bodies become avatars or surrogates for myself, and for the viewer. Through selective editing, these emblematic figures are caught in a space of relentless confusion and paranoia – they run with, and from anxiety. They are never caught by any unseen pursuers, but are equally unable to catch up to any unseen goal. These figures map an historical trajectory of violence and masculinity as it has been projected through various iterations of screen culture Simultaneously, as celebrities, they are also fictions of the media sphere, both real and ethereal, they are impossible to grasp but paradoxically are objects of identification and emulation. In this duality, the work also references cinema’s tangled conflation of character and celebrity identity. This discussion will address the two distinct but connected sites and activities of body/image engagement. Firstly, the artistic process and conceptual ramifications of this activity, and secondly in the artwork’s potential as an installation to provide an opportunity for the viewer (like the artist) to reflect on the constructed-ness and complicated power structures at play in the representation of a gendered body.

An FETI-preconditioned conjuerate gradient method for large-scale stochastic finite element problems

In the spectral stochastic finite element method for analyzing an uncertain system. the uncertainty is represented by a set of random variables, and a quantity of Interest such as the system response is considered as a function of these random variables Consequently, the underlying Galerkin projection yields a block system of deterministic equations where the blocks are sparse but coupled. The solution of this algebraic system of equations becomes rapidly challenging when the size of the physical system and/or the level of uncertainty is increased This paper addresses this challenge by presenting a preconditioned conjugate gradient method for such block systems where the preconditioning step is based on the dual-primal finite element tearing and interconnecting method equipped with a Krylov subspace reusage technique for accelerating the iterative solution of systems with multiple and repeated right-hand sides. Preliminary performance results on a Linux Cluster suggest that the proposed Solution method is numerically scalable and demonstrate its potential for making the uncertainty quantification Of realistic systems tractable.

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.

Cross-Layer Scheduling with Infrequent Channel and Queue Measurements

The downlink scheduling problem in multi-queue multi-server systems under channel uncertainty is considered. Two policies that make allocations based on predicted channel states are proposed. The first is an extension of the well-known dynamic backpressure policy to the uncertain channel case. The second is a variant that improves delay performance under light loads. The stability region of the system is characterised and the first policy is argued to be throughput optimal. A recently proposed policy of Kar et al [1] has lesser complexity, but is shown to be throughput suboptimal. Further, simulations demonstrate better delay and backlog properties for both our policies at light loads.

Improvising a future in the performing arts: The benefits of reframing performing arts entrepreneurship education in familiar terms

Improvisation is a central concept in any drama, theatre or performance studies degree. It is a critical skill, which helps performers learn to ‘make it up as they go along’, apply existing skills to new situations and environments, and, of course, adapt find the most effective or creative pathway towards a their aims. As such, the fact that improvisation is rarely listed as a core career competency — even for performing arts graduates, who can struggle to engage with entrepreneurial skill sets they will need to learn to manage their unpredictable portfolio careers when they are couched in business terms — is somewhat strange. This paper examines the benefits of reframing the administrative, management and entrepreneurial skills arts graduates need to navigate a complex, uncertain, constantly changing industrial landscape in terms of improvisation, play, and playful self - performance. It suggests that adding improvisation to our career training arsenal may be worthwhile, not just because it may assist graduates in navigating their way through a portfolio career, but because it may offer a more familiar, user- friendly terminology to assist graduates in understanding the need to develop administrative, management and entrepreneurial as well as artistic skills, and, in a sense, understand the similarities between the two sets of skills.

Spatial and vertical heterogeneities in aerosol properties over oceanic regions around India: Implications for radiative forcing

The influence of atmospheric aerosols on Earth's radiation budget and hence climate, though well recognized and extensively investigated in recent years, remains largely uncertain mainly because of the large spatio-temporal heterogeneity and the lack of data with adequate resolution. To characterize this diversity, a major multi-platform field campaign ICARB (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget) was carried out during the pre-monsoon period of 2006 over the Indian landmass and surrounding oceans, which was the biggest such campaign ever conducted over this region. Based on the extensive and concurrent measurements of the optical and physical properties of atmospheric aerosols during ICARB, the spatial distribution of aerosol radiative forcing was estimated over the entire Bay of Bengal (BoB), northern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea (AS) as well as large spatial variations within these regions. Besides being considerably lower than the mean values reported earlier for this region, our studies have revealed large differences in the forcing components between the BoB and the AS. While the regionally averaged aerosol-induced atmospheric forcing efficiency was 31 +/- 6 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the BoB, it was only similar to 18 +/- 7 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the AS. Airborne measurements revealed the presence of strong, elevated aerosol layers even over the oceans, leading to vertical structures in the atmospheric forcing, resulting in significant warming in the lower troposphere. These observations suggest serious climate implications and raise issues ranging from the impact of aerosols on vertical thermal structure of the atmospheric and hence cloud formation processes to monsoon circulation.

SPECT-aided diagnostics and genetic risk factors in Parkinson's disease

Hypokinesia, rigidity, tremor, and postural instability are the cardinal symptoms of Parkinson s disease (PD). Since these symptoms are not specific to PD the diagnosis may be uncertain in early PD. Etiology and pathogenesis of PD remain unclear. There is no neuroprotective therapy. Genetic findings are expected to reveal metabolic routes in PD pathogenesis and thereby eventually lead to therapeutic innovations. In this thesis, we first aimed to study the usefulness and accuracy of 123I-b-CIT SPECT in the diagnosis of PD in a consecutive clinic-based material including various movement disorders. We subsequently a genetic project to identify genetic risk factors for sporadic PD using a candidate gene approach in a case-control setting including 147 sporadic PD patients and 137 spouse controls. Dopamine transporter imaging by 123I-b-CIT SPECT could distinguish PD from essential tremor, drug-induced parkinsonism, dystonia and psychogenic parkinsonism. However, b-CIT uptake in Parkinson plus syndromes (PSP and multiple system atrophy) and dementia with Lewy bodies was not significantly different from PD. 123I-b-CIT SPECT could not reliably differentiate PD from vascular parkinsonism. 123I-b-CIT SPECT was 100% sensitive and specific in the diagnosis of PD in patients younger than 55 years but less specific in older patients, due to differential distribution of the above conditions in the younger and older age groups. 123I-b-CIT SPECT correlated with symptoms and detected bilateral nigrostriatal defect in patients whose PD was still in unilateral stage. Thus, in addition to as a differential diagnostic aid, 123I-b-CIT SPECT may be used to detect PD early, even pre-symptomatically in at-risk individuals. 123I-b-CIT SPECT was used to aid in the collection of patients to the genetic studies. In the genetic part of this thesis we found an association between PD and a polymorphic CAG-repeat in POLG1 gene encoding the catalytic subunit of mitochondrial polymerase gamma. The CAG-repeat encodes a polyglutamine tract (polyQ), the two most common lengths of which are 10Q (86-90%) and 11Q. In our Finnish material, the rarer non-10Q or non-11Q length variants (6Q-9Q, 12Q-14Q, 4R+9Q) were more frequent in patients than in spouse controls (10% vs. 3.5 %, p=0.003), or population controls (p=0.001). Therefore, we performed a replication study in 652 North American PD patients and 292 controls. Non-10/11Q alleles were more common in the US PD patients compared to the controls but the difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.07). This larger data suggested our original definition of variant length allele might need reconsideration. Most previous studies on phenotypic effects of POLG1 polyQ have defined 10Q as the only normal allele. Non-10Q alleles were significantly more common in patients compared to the controls (17.3% vs. 12.3 %, p= 0.005). This association between non-10Q length variants and PD remained significant when compared to a larger set of 1541 literature controls (p=0.00005). In conclusion, POLG1 polyQ alleles other than 10Q may predispose to PD. We did not find association between PD and parkin or DJ-1, genes underlying autosomal recessive parkinsonism. The functional Val158Met polymorphism, which affects the catalytic effect of COMT enzyme, and another coding polymorphism in COMT were not associated with PD in our patient material. The APOE e2/3/4 polymorphism modifies risk for Alzheimer s disease and prognosis of for example brain trauma. APOE promoter and enhancer polymorphisms 219G/T and +113G/C, and APOE e3 haplotypes, have also been shown to modify the risk of Alzheimer s disease but not reported in PD. No association was found between PD and APOE e2/3/4 polymorphism, the promoter or enhancer polymorphisms, or the e3 haplotypes.

Elevated CDCP1 predicts poor patient outcome and mediates ovarian clear cell carcinoma by promoting tumor spheroid formation, cell migration and chemoresistance

Hematogenous metastases are rarely present at diagnosis of ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCC). Instead dissemination of these tumors is characteristically via direct extension of the primary tumor into nearby organs and the spread of exfoliated tumor cells throughout the peritoneum, initially via the peritoneal fluid, and later via ascites that accumulates as a result of disruption of the lymphatic system. The molecular mechanisms orchestrating these processes are uncertain. In particular, the signaling pathways used by malignant cells to survive the stresses of anchorage-free growth in peritoneal fluid and ascites, and to colonize remote sites, are poorly defined. We demonstrate that the transmembrane glycoprotein CUB-domain-containing protein 1 (CDCP1) has important and inhibitable roles in these processes. In vitro assays indicate that CDCP1 mediates formation and survival of OCC spheroids, as well as cell migration and chemoresistance. Disruption of CDCP1 via silencing and antibody-mediated inhibition markedly reduce the ability of TOV21G OCC cells to form intraperitoneal tumors and induce accumulation of ascites in mice. Mechanistically our data suggest that CDCP1 effects are mediated via a novel mechanism of protein kinase B (Akt) activation. Immunohistochemical analysis also suggested that CDCP1 is functionally important in OCC, with its expression elevated in 90% of 198 OCC tumors and increased CDCP1 expression correlating with poor patient disease-free and overall survival. This analysis also showed that CDCP1 is largely restricted to the surface of malignant cells where it is accessible to therapeutic antibodies. Importantly, antibody-mediated blockade of CDCP1 in vivo significantly increased the anti-tumor efficacy of carboplatin, the chemotherapy most commonly used to treat OCC. In summary, our data indicate that CDCP1 is important in the progression of OCC and that targeting pathways mediated by this protein may be useful for the management of OCC, potentially in combination with chemotherapies and agents targeting the Akt pathway.