998 resultados para thickness change


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This article analyses the varying influence across time of the "epistemic community" of free-market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a "credible causal story" about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context

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The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

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Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

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Because the magnitude of selection can vary between sexes and in space and time, sexually antagonistic selection is difficult to demonstrate. In a Swiss population of barn owls (Tyto alba), a heritable eumelanic colour trait (size of black spots on ventral feathers) was positively selected with respect to yearling survival only in females. It remains unclear whether the absence of negative selection in males is typical in this species. To tackle this issue indirectly, we measured the size of black spots in 1733 skin specimens collected by museums from 1816 to 2001 in seven European countries and in the Middle-East. The temporal change in spot size was sex- and country-specific. In males, spots became smaller particularly in three countries (Middle-East, Italy and Switzerland). In females, the size of spots increased significantly in two countries (UK and Spain) and decreased in two others (Germany and Switzerland). Because migration and phenotypic plasticity cannot explain these results, selection is the most likely cause. The weaker temporal change in spot size in females than males may be because of the combined effect of strong genetic correlation between the sexes and stronger negative selection in males than positive selection in females. We thus suggest that in the barn owl, spot size (or genetically correlated traits) is sexually antagonistically selected and that its pattern of selection may account for the maintenance of its variation and sexual dimorphism.

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Summary In his theory On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (1859), Darwin describes evolution as a gradual change in population over time and that natural selection is a process that caused evolution. Because quantitative variation in species is partly influenced by several genes and thus heritable, association between levels of genetic variation at neutral markers and at quantitative traits and their partitioning within and among populations are important to study mechanisms that drive evolution in populations. Most studies addressing quantitative variation in plants focused on morphological and life history traits but not in traits affecting reproductive success. The aim of this thesis is to better understand how patterns of variation for neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits drive the evolution of reproduction and defensive mechanisms in six European populations of Silene latifolia, a dioecious plant species. We found evidence for extremely high within and between population variation at six microsatellite loci and at most quantitative traits studied in plants grown under standardized conditions (morphology, life history and reproductive traits). Interestingly, there was clinal variation between age at first flowering and latitude. This pattern is likely due to natural selection since differentiation of this trait was high, heritable and probably higher than differentiation at neutral markers. Our study focused on sex specific selective pressures: mechanisms of intersexual coadaptation and defence mechanism against the seed predator Hadena bicruris. To address divergence at reproductive traits, we studied male and female population of origin effects and in particular pollen competitive ability on male post-pollination success in the study populations with within and between populations crosses. We crossed the same female plant with pollen from a male within the same population of origin and pollen from two males from two distinct populations, using a fixed tester male as a competitor. Additionally, we conducted control crosses with pollen from each male as a single donor. We analysed paternity success of each competitor with two microsatellite loci, seed set and offspring fitness. Male population of origin showed significant among-population variation for siring success at pollen competition. In vitro pollen germination rate showed heritable variation among populations and was positively correlated to siring success. Local or foreign pollen did not have a consistent advantage. Furthermore, female population of origin affected the outcome of pollen competition in some populations. There was no difference of seed set or offspring fitness in within/ between population crosses. This suggests that reproductive divergence may occur via pollen competition in Silene latifolia. The specialist seed predator Hadena bicruris may also induce divergence between populations. We tested potential constitutive and induced defence mechanisms against the specialist predator Hadena bicruris. Because fruit wall thickness is smaller in the invasive range (Northern America) were the moth is absent, this suggests that a thicker fruit wall is a potentially defensive trait against larval attack, and that relaxed selection in the absence of the seed predator has resulted in an evolutionary loss of this defence in the invasive range. Fruit wall thickness was different among three populations. Experimental exposure to moth eggs increased fruit abortion. Fruits built after attack on exposed plants did not have thicker fruit walls compared to fruits on non-exposed plants. Furthermore, fruits with thicker fruit walls were not less profitable, nor did they require longer handling time when exposed to larvae, suggesting no defensive role of fruit wall thickness. Our results show that there is high molecular and phenotypic variation in Silene latifolia and that traits potentially involved in reproductive success both for intra-specific (between sexes) and inter-specific interactions are heritable. Different selective forces may thus interact and cause differential evolution of geographically separated Silene latifolia populations in Europe, leading to the observed differentiation. Résumé Dans sa théorie de l'évolution, L'origine des espèces, ch. 4 (1859), Darwin décrit l'évolution comme un processus continu au cours du temps à l'intérieur de populations et que la sélection naturelle en est le moteur. La variation quantitative est en partie déterminée par plusieurs gènes, donc transmissible à la descendance. Associer le niveau de variation génétique à des marqueurs neutres au niveau de la variation à des traits quantitatifs, ainsi que la répartition à l'intérieur et entre les populations d'une espèce donnée de cette variation, sont importants dans la compréhension des forces évolutives. La plupart des études scientifiques sur la variation quantitative chez les plantes se sont intéressées à la morphologie et à la phénologie mais pas aux caractères impliqués dans le succès reproducteur. L'objectif de cette thèse est de mieux comprendre comment la répartition de la variation à des marqueurs neutres et des caractères quantitatifs influence l'évolution de la reproduction et des mécanismes de défense dans six populations Européennes de l'espèce dioïque Silene latifolia. Nous avons mis en évidence une grande diversité intra et inter-population à six loci microsatellites ainsi qu'à la plupart des caractères quantitatifs mesurés (morphologie, phénologie et traits reproducteurs) sur des plantes cultivées dans des conditions standardisées. Un résultat intéressant est la présence d'un cline latitudinal pour l'âge à la floraison. Ceci est probablement une conséquence de la sélection naturelle, puisque ce caractère est différencié entre les populations étudiées, héritable et que la différenciation de ce trait est supérieure à la différenciation des marqueurs neutres étudiés. Notre étude a ensuite porté plus précisément sur les pressions de sélection spécifiques aux sexes : la coadaptation entre les sexes et les mécanismes de défense contre l'insecte granivore Hadena bicruris. Afin d'évaluer la divergence sur les traits reproducteurs, nous avons étudié les effets des populations d'origine des mâles et des femelles et en particulier le succès reproducteur des mâles après pollinisation à l'aide de croisements inter et intra-population. Nous avons pollinisé la même femelle avec du pollen provenant d'un mâle de la même population ainsi qu'avec le pollen de deux mâles provenant de deux autres populations en situation de compétition avec un pollen provenant d'une population test. Des croisements contrôle ont été réalisés avec les mêmes mâles en pollinisation pure. Nous avons évalué le succès reproducteur de chaque mâle à l'aide d'analyses de paternité ainsi que la production de graines et la fitness de la descendance. L'origine du mâle avait un effet sur la paternité. Le taux de croissance in vitro du pollen est un caractère héritable et a eu un effet positif sur le succès reproducteur. De plus, l'origine de la femelle avait un effet sur le succès des mâles en compétition dans certaines populations. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'une divergence reproductive chez Silene latifolia pourrait apparaître suite à la compétition pollinique. Nous avons ensuite testé des mécanismes potentiels de défense constitutive et induite contre l'herbivore spécialiste Hadena bicruris, un papillon nocturne qui pourrait aussi jouer un rôle dans la différenciation des populations. L'épaisseur des fruits étant plus faible dans les régions où la plante est invasive (Amérique du Nord) et où l'insecte est absent, ce trait pourrait jouer un rôle défensif. Une pression de sélection plus faible causée par l'absence de l'herbivore aurait abouti à une perte de cette défense dans ces régions. Nous avons montré que l'épaisseur du fruit est variable selon les populations. L'infestation artificielle de fruit par l'insecte induit l'abscission sélective des fruits. Les fruits produits après une infestation n'étaient pas plus épais que les fruits issus de plantes non infestées. De plus, les fruits épais n'étaient pas moins nutritifs et ne causaient pas de perte de temps pour la prédation pour les larves, ce qui suggère que l'épaisseur des fruits ne joue pas un rôle défensif. Nos résultats montrent que plusieurs pressions de sélection interviennent et interagissent dans l'évolution de populations distantes, provoquant la divergence des populations Européennes de l'espèce Silene latifolia.

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Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

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The genomic era has revealed that the large repertoire of observed animal phenotypes is dependent on changes in the expression patterns of a finite number of genes, which are mediated by a plethora of transcription factors (TFs) with distinct specificities. The dimerization of TFs can also increase the complexity of a genetic regulatory network manifold, by combining a small number of monomers into dimers with distinct functions. Therefore, studying the evolution of these dimerizing TFs is vital for understanding how complexity increased during animal evolution. We focus on the second largest family of dimerizing TFs, the basic-region leucine zipper (bZIP), and infer when it expanded and how bZIP DNA-binding and dimerization functions evolved during the major phases of animal evolution. Specifically, we classify the metazoan bZIPs into 19 families and confirm the ancient nature of at least 13 of these families, predating the split of the cnidaria. We observe fixation of a core dimerization network in the last common ancestor of protostomes-deuterostomes. This was followed by an expansion of the number of proteins in the network, but no major dimerization changes in interaction partners, during the emergence of vertebrates. In conclusion, the bZIPs are an excellent model with which to understand how DNA binding and protein interactions of TFs evolved during animal evolution.

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We present new geochemical and sedimentological data from marginal marine strata of Penarth Bay, south Wales (UK) to elucidate the origin of widespread but enigmatic concentrations of vertebrate hard parts (bonebeds) in marine successions of Rhaetian age (late Triassic). Sedimentological evidence shows that the phosphatic constituents of the bonebeds were subjected to intense phosphatization in shallow current-dominated settings and subsequently reworked and transported basinward by storms. Interbedded organic-rich strata deposited under quiescent and poorly oxygenated conditions record enhanced phosphorus regeneration from sedimentary organic matter into the water column and probably provided the main source of phosphate required for heavy bonebed clast phosphatization. The stratigraphically limited interval showing evidence for oxygen depletion and accelerated P-cycling coincides with a negative 4% organic carbon isotope excursion, which possibly reflects supra-regional changes in carbon cycling and clearly predates the 'initial isotope excursion' characterizing many Triassic-Jurassic boundary strata. our data indicate that Rhaetian bonebeds are the lithological signature of profound, climatically driven changes in carbon cycling and redox conditions and support the idea of a multi-pulsed environmental crisis at the end of the Triassic, possibly linked to successive episodes of igneous activity in the central Atlantic Magmatic Province.

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Selostus: Maatalous pohjoisilla äärialueilla: ilmastolliset rajoitukset ja ilmaston muutosten vaikutukset viljelyyn

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We study whether the neutron skin thickness Δrnp of 208Pb originates from the bulk or from the surface of the nucleon density distributions, according to the mean-field models of nuclear structure, and find that it depends on the stiffness of the nuclear symmetry energy. The bulk contribution to Δrnp arises from an extended sharp radius of neutrons, whereas the surface contribution arises from different widths of the neutron and proton surfaces. Nuclear models where the symmetry energy is stiff, as typical of relativistic models, predict a bulk contribution in Δrnp of 208Pb about twice as large as the surface contribution. In contrast, models with a soft symmetry energy like common nonrelativistic models predict that Δrnp of 208Pb is divided similarly into bulk and surface parts. Indeed, if the symmetry energy is supersoft, the surface contribution becomes dominant. We note that the linear correlation of Δrnp of 208Pb with the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy arises from the bulk part of Δrnp. We also note that most models predict a mixed-type (between halo and skin) neutron distribution for 208Pb. Although the halo-type limit is actually found in the models with a supersoft symmetry energy, the skin-type limit is not supported by any mean-field model. Finally, we compute parity-violating electron scattering in the conditions of the 208Pb parity radius experiment (PREX) and obtain a pocket formula for the parity-violating asymmetry in terms of the parameters that characterize the shape of the 208Pb nucleon densities.

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We have reported that ingesting a meal immediately after exercise increased skeletal muscle accretion and less adipose tissue accumulation in rats employed in a 10 week resistance exercise program. We hypothesized that a possible increase in the resting metabolic rate (RMR) as a result of the larger skeletal muscle mass might be responsible for the less adipose deposition. Therefore, the effect of the timing of a protein supplement after resistance exercise on body composition and the RMR was investigated in 17 slightly overweight men. The subjects participated in a 12-week weight reduction program consisting of mild energy restriction (17% energy intake reduction) and a light resistance exercise using a pair of dumbbells (3-5 kg). The subjects were assigned to two groups. Group S ingested a protein supplement (10 g protein, 7 g carbohydrate, 3.3 g fat and one-third of recommended daily allowance (RDA) of vitamins and minerals) immediately after exercise. Group C did not ingest the supplement. Daily intake of both energy and protein was equal between the two groups and the protein intake met the RDA. After 12 weeks, the bodyweight, skinfold thickness, girth of waist and hip and percentage bodyfat significantly decreased in the both groups, however, no significant differences were observed between the groups. The fat-free mass significantly decreased in C, whereas its decrease in S was not significant. The RMR and post-meal total energy output significantly increased in S, while these variables did not change in C. In addition, the urinary nitrogen excretion tended to increase in C but not in S. These results suggest that the RMR increase observed in S might be associated with an increase in body protein synthesis.

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Selostus: Ilmastonmuutoksen taloudelliset vaikutukset suomalaiseen maatalouteen