The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models. First, we show that the ìbestî empirical model developed without common cycle restrictions need not nest the ìbestî model developed with those restrictions. This is due to possible differences in the lag-lengths chosen by model selection criteria for the two alternative models. Second, we show that the costs of ignoring common cyclical features in vector autoregressive modelling can be high, both in terms of forecast accuracy and efficient estimation of variance decomposition coefficients. Third, we find that the Hannan-Quinn criterion performs best among model selection criteria in simultaneously selecting the lag-length and rank of vector autoregressions.

The importance of Common-Cyclical Features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study (Preliminary Version)

Despite the belief, supported byrecentapplied research, thataggregate datadisplay short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences ofthese data “features.” W e use exhaustive M onte-Carlo simulations toinvestigate theimportance ofrestrictions implied by common-cyclicalfeatures for estimates and forecasts based on vectorautoregressive and errorcorrection models. First, weshowthatthe“best” empiricalmodeldevelopedwithoutcommoncycles restrictions neednotnestthe“best” modeldevelopedwiththoserestrictions, duetothe use ofinformation criteria forchoosingthe lagorderofthe twoalternative models. Second, weshowthatthecosts ofignoringcommon-cyclicalfeatures inV A R analysis may be high in terms offorecastingaccuracy and e¢ciency ofestimates ofvariance decomposition coe¢cients. A lthough these costs are more pronounced when the lag orderofV A R modelsareknown, theyarealsonon-trivialwhenitis selectedusingthe conventionaltoolsavailabletoappliedresearchers. T hird, we…ndthatifthedatahave common-cyclicalfeatures andtheresearcherwants touseaninformationcriterium to selectthelaglength, theH annan-Q uinn criterium is themostappropriate, sincethe A kaike and theSchwarz criteriahave atendency toover- and under-predictthe lag lengthrespectivelyinoursimulations.

The importance of clusters for the development of small & medium enterprises

This thesis aims to open a theoretical discussion on the importance of cluster for the development of Small and Medium Enterprises. The methodology applied was based on bibliographical and qualitative research. The basic questions raised by this study can be summarized as follows: How the creation of a cluster will help in the development of the SME?. Consequently, the final objective of the work is to identify which are the characteristics that help into the success of a Small & Medium Enterprises inserted in a cluster. The answer to this question led the research to a better understanding of (i) the characterization of the Small & Medium Enterprises; (ii) the clusters theory; (iii) evidence for a developed (Italy) and a developing (Chile) country that support our proposition to verify. The main results confirm the relevance of the cluster for the development of the Small and Medium Enterprises because of the collective efficiency that generates, improving the funding conditions, the exporter capacity and diminishing the activities costs of the small companies that are part of the conglomerate.

The rite of passage from regular to connoisseur consumer: the role of the taste transformation ritual in the specialty coffee context

Apesar de o campo da cultura de consumo ter abordado o papel do ritual no consumo, definindo e descrevendo este constructo e explicando suas dimensões, significados culturais, elementos, componentes e práticas, assim como revelando a diferenciação nas práticas dos consumidores, nenhuma pesquisa ainda identificou como os consumidores, por meio de práticas de ritual, estabelecem e manipulam suas próprias diferenciações em relação a outros consumidores durante o rito de passagem deles de uma categoria cultural de pessoa para outra. Tendo como base conceitos-chaves da teoria sobre ritual, minha pesquisa aborda o papel do ritual no consume de apreciação. Conduzindo um estudo etnográfico sobre consumo de apreciação de cafés especiais, eu realizei uma imersão no campo, visitando e observando consumidores em cafeterias independentes de destaque na América do Norte – Toronto, Montreal, Seattle e Nova York – de agosto de 2013 a julho de 2014. Eu também realizei uma imersão no contexto de cafés especiais no Brasil em Belo Horizonte e São Paulo, de agosto de 2014 a janeiro de 2015, para comparar e contrastar as culturas de consume de cafés especiais de Brasil, Estados Unidos e Canadá. Eu usei entrevistas longas, observação participante, netnografia, introspecção e análise histórica de artigos de jornais para coletar os dados, que foram interpretados utilizando a abordagem hermenêutica, comparando os consumidores em diferentes estágios durante o rito de passagem de apreciação. Para estender meu entendimento sobre o consumo de apreciação, eu também coletei dados sobre o contexto de consumo de vinho. Nesta tese, eu introduzo a ideia de ritual de transformação do gosto, teorizando sobre o processo do rito de passagem de apreciação, que converte consumidores regulares em consumidores apreciadores. Minha pesquisa revela que consumidores apreciadores são amadores em diferentes estágios do rito de passagem de apreciação. Eles se transformam pelo estabelecimento e reforço de oposições entre o consume de massa e de apreciação. O ritual de transformação do gosto envolve os seguintes elementos: (1) variação nas escolhas de produtos de alta qualidade, (2) o lugar para realizar a degustação, (3) o momento da degustação, (4) o ato de degustar, (5) investimento de tempo e dinheiro, (6) aumento do capital subcultural e social, (7) perseverança no rito de passagem. Os consumidores apreciadores participam da comunidade de consumo de apreciação. Essa comunidade heterogênea é composta por profissionais excelentes, apreciadores e consumidores regulares. As forças que direcionam a comunidade, de acordo com o que foi identificado no estudo, são a produção de capital social e subcultural, emulação do profissional e das práticas de ritual de consumo, tensões de performance entre os membros da comunidade, amizade comercial e jogo de status. Eu desenvolvo uma ampla consideração teórica que desenvolve e estende um número de conceitos em relação a ritual e consumo, gosto, comunidade heterogênea e consumidores apreciadores.

The growing importance of the ETF industry - the pros and cons of passive management

O objectivo deste projecto é a comparação entre os prós e contras de gestão passiva e ativa através da realização de um estudo estatístico de várias estratégias através dos Exchange-Traded Funds. Em particular, a análise vai passar pela estratégia mais passiva, ou seja, buy and hold, para um grau diferente de active indexing management, tais como rotações do sector e / ou classe de ativos com base no bottom-up, top-down e indicadores técnicos. A análise mostra que as estratégias ativas, se forem devidamente aplicadas, conseguem obter retornos ajustados ao risco substancialmente superiores quando comparados com uma abordagem passiva, superando as questões de custos de transação e diversificação que normalmente são reivindicadas por uma gestão passiva.

The importance of firms' strategic resources and capabilities in crisis situations

The general idea of this research is to analyze overall firm performance before and after the global financial crisis of 2008. The main question is: What kind of strategies did companies adopt that led to positive business performance after the crisis? Are there any particular competitive advantages that bring better performance in the case of an economic downturn? This research focuses on competitive advantage gained by resource-based view attributes of a product (quality, durability and prestige) and dynamic capabilities (strategic flexibility in product development and technological innovation ability). The economic crisis setting provides a proper background to analyze the competitive advantage strategies in a dynamic, low-probability environment to determine which are most worth adopting in the business world. I employ an OLS regression analysis in order to measure the business performance of 136 Brazilian firms across four years – 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012. The findings indicate that even though all of the strategic resources and capabilities positively influence firm performance in expansionary periods, only the superior product characteristics are pertinent in surviving an economic downturn.

Local Field Potentials in the Gustatory Cortex Carry Taste Information

It has been recently shownthat localfield potentials (LFPs)fromthe auditory and visual cortices carry information about sensory stimuli, but whether this is a universal property of sensory cortices remains to be determined. Moreover, little is known about the temporal dynamics of sensory information contained in LFPs following stimulus onset. Here we investigated the time course of the amount of stimulus information in LFPs and spikes from the gustatory cortex of awake rats subjected to tastants and water delivery on the tongue. We found that the phase and amplitude of multiple LFP frequencies carry information about stimuli, which have specific time courses after stimulus delivery. The information carried by LFP phase and amplitude was independent within frequency bands, since the joint information exhibited neither synergy nor redundancy. Tastant information in LFPs was also independent and had a different time course from the information carried by spikes. These findings support the hypothesis that the brain uses different frequency channels to dynamically code for multiple features of a stimulus.

Biologia alimentar e morfohistologia do tubo digestório do mussum, synbranchus marmoratus, bloch (osteichthyes: synbranchidae) no açude Marechal Dutra Gargalheiras , localizado no semi-árido brasileiro

Food habits and morpho-histology of the digestive tract of marbled swamp eel, Synbranchus marmoratus (Block, 1917) were investigated. The fish samples were captured during August, 2007 to July, 2008 in the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, Rio Grande do Norte. The rain fall data was obtained from EMPARN. The fish captured, were measured, weighed, dissected, eviscerated and individual stomach weights were registered. The stomach contents analyses were carried out based on volumetric method, points, frequency of occurrence and applying the Index of Relative Importance. The degrees of repletion of the stomachs were determined besides the Index of Repletion relating to feeding activity variations and frequency of ingestion during the rainy and dry seasons. The rainfall varied from 0 mm a 335 mm with a mean value of 71.62 mm. Highest rainfall of 335.5 mm was registered in March, 2008 and August to December was the dry period. During the dry period the study species presented high degrees of repletion of the stomachs, with a peak value in the month of September (mean = 4.54; ± SD = 0.56). The minimum mean value of = 3.99 ± SD = 0.25 was registered in the month of May during the rainy period. The stomach contents of S. marmoratus registered show that this fish prefers animals, 78.22% of crustaceans 2.85% of mollusks, 3.25% of fish, 1.4% of insects and 13.5% of semi-digested organic matter, thus characterizing the study species as a carnivore with a preference for crustaceans. The morpho-histological aspects of the digestive tract of S. marmoratus indicate that the mouth is terminal adapted to open widely, thin lips with taste buds, small villiform teeth forming a single series on maxillas, four pairs of branchial arches with short and widely spaced branchial rays. The oesophagus is short and cylindrical with a small diameter. The oesophagus wall is thick with mucas surface and internal parallel folds. The stomach is retilinical in form, presenting cardiac, caecal and pyloric portions. The caecal portion is long and is intermediary in position between the cardiac and pyloric portions. The cardiac portion of the stomach is short and cylindrical formed of simple epithelial cylindrical mucus cells. The caecal portion is long with narrow walls, a big cavity and smaller folds which give rise to gastric glands. The phyloric portion has no glands and primary or secondary mucas folds. The morphohistological aspects of the digestive tract of S. marmoratus indicate its adaptation to a carnivorous feeding habit

Cardiovascular changes under normoxic and hypoxic conditions in the air-breathing teleost Synbranchus marmoratus: importance of the venous system

Synbranchus marmoratus is a facultative air-breathing fish, which uses its buccal cavity as well as its gills for air-breathing. S. marmoratus shows a very pronounced tachycardia when it surfaces to air-breathe. An elevation of heart rate decreases cardiac filling time and therefore may cause a decline in stroke volume (VS), but this can be compensated for by an increase in venous tone to maintain stroke volume. Thus, the study on S. marmoratus was undertaken to investigate how stroke volume and venous function are affected during air-breathing. To this end we measured cardiac output (Q), heart rate (fH), central venous blood pressure (PCV), mean circulatory filling pressure (MCFP), and dorsal aortic blood pressures (PDA) in S. marmoratus. Measurements were performed in aerated water (P-O2 > 130 mmHg), when the fish alternated between gill ventilation and prolonged periods of apnoeas, as well as during hypoxia (P-O2 <= 50 mmHg), when the fish changed from gill ventilation to air-breathing. Q increased significantly during gill ventilation compared to apnoea in aerated water through a significant increase in both fH and VS. PCV and MCFP also increased significantly. During hypoxia, when the animals surface to ventilate air, we found a marked rise in fH, PCV, MCFP, Q and VS, whereas PDA decreased significantly. Simultaneous increases in PCV and MCFP in aerated, as well as in hypoxic water, suggests that the venous system plays an important regulatory role for cardiac filling and VS in this species. In addition, we investigated adrenergic regulation of the venous system through bolus infusions of adrenergic agonists (adrenaline, phenylephrine and isoproterenol; 2 mu g kg(-1)). Adrenaline and phenylephrine caused a marked rise in PCV and MCFP, whereas isoproterenol led to a marked decrease in PCV, and tended to decrease MCFP. Thus, it is evident that stimulation of both alpha- and beta-adrenoreceptors affects venous tone in S. marmoratus.

Obtenção e caracterização de farinha de frutas e vegetais através do uso de um sistema de secagem solar de baixo custo

In this work a solar drying system for food dehydration was developed. It is a direct exposition drying apparatus that uses solar energy to heat the circulating air. First, the construction and assembly of this apparatus was described, in which was used scrap wraps of used tires for thermal insulation, allowing the reuse of solid waste, being an ecologically correct recycling option. After, the results obtained in experiments for cashew drying showed the thermal and economical feasibility of the proposed solar drying system, focusing on the process of flour production and in its chemical characterization. It was also demonstrated the social importance of this production for socially excluded people, since the value added to this fruit, in relation to its in nature form, may represent an option for job and income generation. The main features of the proposed dryer are its low cost and its easy fabrication and assembly process. After cashew drying, the obtained product was processed into flour by using a knife mill and it was added crushed rapadura to reduce the rancid taste caused by tannin

Caracterização físico-química, reológica e sensorial de iogurte obtido pela mistura dos leites bubalino e caprino

Milk from different animals can be used for dairy production. Yoghurt is a popular fermented milk product and considered to be one of the greatest importance in terms of consumer acceptance and consumption. The present research deals with the production of strawberry set-type yoghurt by mixing goat and buffalo s milk and it has the objective of taking advantage of the intrinsic characteristics of each milk to produce a final product with desirable attributes. It was conducted by analyzing five experimental groups with different proportions of goat and buffalo s milk: C 100% goat s milk; 7C3B - 70% goat s milk and 30% buffalo s milk, 5C5B - 50% goat s milk and 50% buffalo s milk, 3C7B 30% goat s milk and 70% buffalo s milk; B - 100% buffalo s milk. Each group was evaluated for total solids content and the acidification profile was monitored every 30 minutes by pH analysis. The yoghurt samples were analyzed for physical-chemical (pH, acidity, protein, fat, total and reducing sugars, ash and total solids), rheological (syneresis and viscosity) and sensory characteristics (appearance, odor, consistency and flavour). Samples with higher percentual of bubaline milk reached Vm faster, but the time necessary for pH 4.6 (Te) were similar between groups. Statistical differences (p<0.05) were observed for fat and total solids content of yoghurt, with superior values for groups higher proportions of buffalo s milk. The parameters of behavior reached by the model of Ostwald of Waale pointed yoghurt samples as non-Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluids. Yoghurt made only with goat s milk (C) had higher values (p<0.05) for syneresis, which can be explained by its fragile coagulum. Additionally, this group also had the lowest sensory scores for the attributes consistence and taste, while bubaline yoghurt (B) obtained the best acceptance indexes for all of the appraised parameters

Estudo da reidratação do feijão verde (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp) desidratado por micro-ondas com e sem pré-tratamento osmótico

The green bean has organoleptic and nutritional characteristics that make it an important food source in tropical regions such as the Northeast of Brazil. It is a cheap source of protein and important for nutrition of rural population contributing significantly in subsistence farming of the families from Brazil s northeast. It is consumed in entire region and together with the dry meat and other products composes the menu of typical restaurants, being characterized as an important product for economy of Northeast. The green bean is consumed freshly harvested and has short cycle, being characterized as a very perishable food, which hampers your market. The drying method is an alternative to increase the lifetime and provide a reduction volume of this product making easier your transportation and storage. However is necessary to search ways of drying which keep the product quality not only from the nutritional standpoint but also organoleptic. Some characteristics may change with the drying process such as the coloring, the rehydration capacity and the grains cooking time. The decrease of drying time or of exposure of the grains to high temperature minimizes the effects related with the product quality loss. Among the techniques used to reduce the drying time and improve some characteristics of the product, stands out the osmotic dehydration, widely used in combined processes such as the pretreatment in drying food. Currently the use of the microwaves has been considered an alternative for drying food. The microwave energy generates heat inside of materials processed and the heating is practically instantaneous, resulting in shorter processing times and product quality higher to that obtained by conventional methods. Considering the importance of the green beans for the Northeast region, the wastefulness of production due to seasonality of the crop and your high perishability, the proposal of this thesis is the study of drying grain by microwaves with and without osmotic pretreatment, focusing on the search of conditions of processes which favor the rehydration of the product preserving your organoleptic characteristics. Based on the analysis of the results of osmotic dehydration and dielectric properties was defined the operating condition to be used in pretreatment of the green bean, with osmotic concentration in saline solution containing 12,5% of sodium chloride, at 40°C for 20 minutes. The drying of green bean by microwave was performed with and without osmotic pretreatment on the optimized condition. The osmotic predehydration favored the additional drying, reducing the process time. The rehydration of dehydrated green bean with and without osmotic pretreatment was accomplished in different temperature conditions and immersion time according to a factorial design 22, with 3 repetitions at the central point. According to results the better condition was obtained with the osmotically pretreated bean and rehydrated at a temperature of 60°C for 90 minutes. Sensory analysis was performed comparing the sample of the green bean in natura and rehydrated in optimized conditions, with and without osmotic pretreatment. All samples showed a good acceptance rate regarding the analyzed attributes (appearance, texture, color, odor and taste), with all values above 70%. Is possible conclude that the drying of green bean by microwave with osmotic pretreatment is feasible both in respect to technical aspects and rehydration rates and sensory quality of the product

Distribution of stream macroalgal communities from the mid-western region of Paraná state, southern Brazil: importance of local scale variation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)