IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Consistency of thromboelastometry analysis under scrutiny: Results of a systematic evaluation within and between analysers.

While the use of thromboelastometry analysis (ROTEM®) in evaluation of haemostasis is rapidly increasing, important validity parameters of testing remain inadequately examined. We aimed to study systematically the consistency of thromboelastometry parameters within individual tests regarding measurements between different analysers, between different channels of the same analyser, between morning and afternoon measurements (circadian variation), and if measured four weeks apart. Citrated whole blood samples from 40 healthy volunteers were analysed with two analysers in parallel. EXTEM, INTEM, FIBTEM, HEPTEM and APTEM tests were conducted. A Bland-Altman comparison was performed and homogeneity of variances was tested using the pitman test. P-value ranges were used to classify the level of homogeneity (p<0.15 - low homogeneity, p = 0.15 to 0.5 - intermediate homogeneity, p>0.5 high homogeneity). Less than half of all comparisons made showed high homogeneity of variances (p>0.5) and in about a fifth of comparisons data distributions were heterogeneous (p<0.15). There was no clear pattern for homogeneity. On average, comparisons of MCF, ML and LI30 measurements tended to be better, but none of the tests assessed outperformed another. In conclusion, systematic investigation reveals large differences in the results of some thromboelastometry parameters and lack of consistency. Clinicians and scientists should take these inconsistencies into account and focus on parameters with a higher homogeneity such as MCF.

Strong-meter and weak-meter rhythm identification in spina bifida meningomyelocele and volumetric parcellation of rhythm-relevant cerebellar regions.

Children with spina bifida meningomyelocele (SBM) are impaired relative to controls in terms of discriminating strong-meter and weak-meter rhythms, so congenital cerebellar dysmorphologies that affect rhythmic movements also disrupt rhythm perception. Cerebellar parcellations in children with SBM showed an abnormal configuration of volume fractions in cerebellar regions important for rhythm function: a smaller inferior-posterior lobe, and larger anterior and superior-posterior lobes.

The Role of Consistency and Diversity in Building Knowledge in Family Preservation

Family preservation has been criticized for implementing programs that are not theoretically founded. One result of this circumstance is a lack of information regarding processes and outcomes of family preservation services. The knowledge base of family preservation is thus rather limited at present and will remain limited unless theory is consistently integrated within individual programs. A model for conceptualizing how theoretical consistency may be implemented within programs is presented and applied to family preservation. It is also necessary for programs to establish theoretical consistency before theoretical diversity, both within individual and across multiple programs, in order to advance the field in meaningful ways. A developmental cycle of knowledge generation is presented and applied to family preservation.

Stakeholder analysis combined with social network analysis provides fine-grained insights into water infrastructure planning processes

Environmental policy and decision-making are characterized by complex interactions between different actors and sectors. As a rule, a stakeholder analysis is performed to understand those involved, but it has been criticized for lacking quality and consistency. This lack is remedied here by a formal social network analysis that investigates collaborative and multi-level governance settings in a rigorous way. We examine the added value of combining both elements. Our case study examines infrastructure planning in the Swiss water sector. Water supply and wastewater infrastructures are planned far into the future, usually on the basis of projections of past boundary conditions. They affect many actors, including the population, and are expensive. In view of increasing future dynamics and climate change, a more participatory and long-term planning approach is required. Our specific aims are to investigate fragmentation in water infrastructure planning, to understand how actors from different decision levels and sectors are represented, and which interests they follow. We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders, but also cantonal and national actors. The network analysis confirmed our hypothesis of strong fragmentation: we found little collaboration between the water supply and wastewater sector (confirming horizontal fragmentation), and few ties between local, cantonal, and national actors (confirming vertical fragmentation). Infrastructure planning is clearly dominated by engineers and local authorities. Little importance is placed on longer-term strategic objectives and integrated catchment planning, but this was perceived as more important in a second analysis going beyond typical questions of stakeholder analysis. We conclude that linking a stakeholder analysis, comprising rarely asked questions, with a rigorous social network analysis is very fruitful and generates complementary results. This combination gave us deeper insight into the socio-political-engineering world of water infrastructure planning that is of vital importance to our well-being.

EU trade agreements and their impacts on human rights: study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

The European Union’s (EU) trade policy has a strong influence on economic development and the human rights situation in the EU’s partner countries, particularly in developing countries. The present study was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) as a contribution to further developing appropriate methodologies for assessing human rights risks in development-related policies, an objective set in the BMZ’s 2011 strategy on human rights. The study offers guidance for stakeholders seeking to improve their knowledge of how to assess, both ex ante and ex post, the impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on poverty reduction and the right to food in ACP countries. Currently, human rights impacts are not yet systematically addressed in the trade sustainability impact assessments (trade SIAs) that the European Commission conducts when negotiating trade agreements. Nor do they focus specifically on disadvantaged groups or include other benchmarks relevant to human rights impact assessments (HRIAs). The EU itself has identified a need for action in this regard. In June 2012 it presented an Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy that calls for the inclusion of human rights in all impact assessments and in this context explicitly refers to trade agreements. Since then, the EU has begun to slightly adapt its SIA methodology and is working to define more adequate human rights–consistent procedures. It is hoped that readers of this study will find inspiration to help contribute to this process and help improve human rights consistency of future trade options.

Strong Southward Transport Events Due to Typhoons in the Taiwan Strait

Transport through the Taiwan Strait under the influence of five typhoons was investigated using both buoy observations and numerical model simulations during the period of 27 August to 5 October 2005. The results show that the effects of typhoons on the Taiwan Strait and its adjacent sea area caused strong southward transport events in the Taiwan Strait, which changed the direction of the Taiwan Strait northward transport temporarily. Typhoon-generated local wind stress and/or along-strait water level gradient were the direct driving factors in these southward transport events. The numerical results show that the Coriolis force made a negative contribution to these events and the contribution of the along-strait momentum gradient was insignificant.

Modulation of corticospinal activity by strong emotions evoked by pictures and classical music: a transcranial magnetic stimulation study.

Using transcranial magnetic stimulation and skin conductance responses, we sought to clarify if, and to what extent, emotional experiences of different valences and intensity activate the hand-motor system and the associated corticospinal tract. For that purpose, we applied a newly developed method to evoke strong emotional experiences by the simultaneous presentation of musical and pictorial stimuli of congruent emotional valence. We uncovered enhanced motor-evoked potentials, irrespective of valence, during the simultaneous presentation of emotional music and picture stimuli (Combined conditions) compared with the single presentation of the two modalities (Picture/Music conditions). In contrast, vegetative arousal was enhanced during both the Combined and Music conditions, compared with the Picture conditions, again irrespective of emotional valence. These findings strongly indicate that arousal is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for triggering the motor system of the brain. We offer a potential explanation for this discrepant, but intriguing, finding in the paper.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Leukemic stem cell frequency: a strong biomarker for clinical outcome in acute myeloid leukemia.

INTRODUCTION Treatment failure in acute myeloid leukemia is probably caused by the presence of leukemia initiating cells, also referred to as leukemic stem cells, at diagnosis and their persistence after therapy. Specific identification of leukemia stem cells and their discrimination from normal hematopoietic stem cells would greatly contribute to risk stratification and could predict possible relapses. RESULTS For identification of leukemic stem cells, we developed flow cytometric methods using leukemic stem cell associated markers and newly-defined (light scatter) aberrancies. The nature of the putative leukemic stem cells and normal hematopoietic stem cells, present in the same patient's bone marrow, was demonstrated in eight patients by the presence or absence of molecular aberrancies and/or leukemic engraftment in NOD-SCID IL-2Rγ-/- mice. At diagnosis (n=88), the frequency of the thus defined neoplastic part of CD34+CD38- putative stem cell compartment had a strong prognostic impact, while the neoplastic parts of the CD34+CD38+ and CD34- putative stem cell compartments had no prognostic impact at all. After different courses of therapy, higher percentages of neoplastic CD34+CD38- cells in complete remission strongly correlated with shorter patient survival (n=91). Moreover, combining neoplastic CD34+CD38- frequencies with frequencies of minimal residual disease cells (n=91), which reflect the total neoplastic burden, revealed four patient groups with different survival. CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVE Discrimination between putative leukemia stem cells and normal hematopoietic stem cells in this large-scale study allowed to demonstrate the clinical importance of putative CD34+CD38- leukemia stem cells in AML. Moreover, it offers new opportunities for the development of therapies directed against leukemia stem cells, that would spare normal hematopoietic stem cells, and, moreover, enables in vivo and ex vivo screening for potential efficacy and toxicity of new therapies.