Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Essays on administrative protection and trade deflection

This dissertation analyzes the trading effects and the politics of antidumping. The first essay empirically examines the influence of partisanship on antidumping. I show that an increase in the leftist orientation of the government makes labor intensive industries less likely to file an antidumping petition. I also demonstrate that the increase in the leftist orientation of the government is associated with an increase in the likelihood of an affirmative antidumping outcome for the petitions of labor intensive industries. The second essay investigates the effect of past exporting relationships of the firms, whose products are targeted by antidumping duties, on their export flows to alternative markets. My estimations show that facing an antidumping duty on a product leads to a 18% increase in the exports of the firm for that product to the alternative countries where the firms previously exported the same product and a 8% increase to the countries where the firms exported another product. On the contrary, I fail to find a significant effect of antidumping duties on the exports of the particular product to third countries to which the firm did not export before. Further, I show that a firm’s probability to start exporting the duty imposed product in a different destination increases by 8–10% if the firm already exported another product to that destination. However, I find no such evidence for the countries to which the firm did not export before. The third essay empirically analyzes the effect of potential antidumping claims, resulting from an antidumping investigation in the domestic market, on the quality of exported products to the target countries. My findings suggest that retaliation threats increase the quality of firms’ shipments for the named industries’ products to the target countries by 11%. This effect is also significantly increasing in the share of the exports of the named industries’ products shipped to the target country in the firms’ total exports. Further, I show that this effect is 4% higher for the exporters serving the developed countries and 3% higher for ones serving the heavy antidumping users.

Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Development and verification of control and protection strategies in hybrid AC/DC power systems for smart grid applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

Non -traded goods, product differentiation and integration of factor markets

This research sought to determine the implications of a non-traded differentiated commodity produced with increasing returns to scale, for the welfare of countries that allowed free international migration. We developed two- and three-country Ricardian models in which labor was the only factor of production. The countries traded freely in homogeneous goods produced with constant returns to scale. Each also had a non-traded differentiated good sector where production took place using increasing returns to scale technology. Then we allowed for free international migration between two of the countries and observed what happened to welfare in both countries as indicated by their per capita utilities in the new equilibrium relative to their pre-migration utilities. ^ Preferences of consumers were represented by a two-tier utility function [Dixit and Stiglitz 1977]. As migration took place it impacted utility in two ways. The expanding country enjoyed the positive effect of increased product diversity in the non-traded good sector. However, it also suffered adverse terms-of-trade as its production cost declined. The converse was true for the contracting country. To determine the net impact on welfare we derived indirect per capita utility functions of the countries algebraically and graphically. Then we juxtaposed the graphs of the utility functions to obtain possible general equilibria. These we used to observe the welfare outcomes. ^ We found that the most likely outcomes were either that both countries gained, or one country lost while the other gained. We were, however, able to generate cases where both countries lost as a result of allowing free inter-country migration. This was most likely to happen when the shares of income spent on each country's export good differed significantly. In the three country world when we allowed two of the countries to engage in preferential trading arrangements while imposing a prohibitive tariff on imports from the third country welfare of the partner countries declined. When inter-union migration was permitted welfare declined even further. This we showed was due to the presence of the non-traded good sector. ^

Genetic Algorithms and Investment Strategies: A Global Perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: 1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, 2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, 3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and 4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

The influence of gene environment interaction on the risk of cognitive impairment: Reducing sexual risk behaviors and alcohol use in HIV-infected adults

Memory deficits and executive dysfunction are highly prevalent among HIV-infected adults. These conditions can affect their quality of life, antiretroviral adherence, and HIV risk behaviors. Several factors have been suggested including the role of genetics in relation to HIV disease progression. This dissertation aimed to determine whether genetic differences in HIV-infected individuals were correlated with impaired memory, cognitive flexibility and executive function and whether cognitive decline moderated alcohol use and sexual transmission risk behaviors among HIV-infected alcohol abusers participating in an NIH-funded clinical trial comparing the efficacy of the adapted Holistic Health Recovery Program (HHRP-A) intervention to a Health Promotion Control (HPC) condition in reducing risk behaviors. ^ A total of 267 individuals were genotyped for polymorphisms in the dopamine and serotonin gene systems. Results yielded significant associations for TPH2, GALM, DRD2 and DRD4 genetic variants with impaired executive function, cognitive flexibility and memory. SNPs TPH2 rs4570625 and DRD2 rs6277 showed a risk association with executive function (odds ratio = 2.5, p = .02; 3.6, p = .001). GALM rs6741892 was associated with impaired memory (odds ratio = 1.9, p = .006). At the six-month follow-up, HHRP-A participants were less likely to report trading sex for food, drugs and money (20.0%) and unprotected insertive or receptive oral (11.6%) or vaginal and/or anal sex (3.2%) than HPC participants (49.4%, p^

Trading Democracy for Security? The Effects of the International Drug War on the Quality of Democracy in the Dominican Republic, 1996 -2008

The purpose of the research is to study the relationship between international drug interdiction policies and domestic politics in fragile democracies, and to demonstrate how international drug control policies and the use of force fit the rhetoric of war, are legitimized by the principles of a just war, but may also cause collateral damage and negative unintended consequences. The method used is a case study of the Dominican Republic. The research has found that international drug control regimes, primarily led by the U.S. and narrowly focused on interdiction, have influenced an increasingly militarized approach to domestic law enforcement in the Dominican Republic. The collateral damage caused by militarized enforcement comes in the form of negative perceptions of citizen security, loss of respect for the rule of law and due process, and low levels of civil society development. The drug war has exposed the need for significant reform of the institutions charged with carrying out enforcement, the police force and the judicial system in particular. The dissertation concludes that the extent of drug trafficking in the Dominican Republic is beyond the scope of domestic reform efforts alone, but that the programs implemented do show some potential for future success. The dissertation also concludes that the framework of warfare is not the most appropriate for the international problems of drug traffic and abuse. A broader, multipronged approach should be considered by world policy makers in order to address all conditions that allow drugs to flourish without infringing upon democratic and civil rights in the process.

Computer assisted synthesis and in-vitro cytotoxic evaluation of new pyrazole-fused isoquinolinoquinones derivatives as PI3K receptor antagonist with promising antitumoral activity

The importance of pyrazole and isoquinoline-5,8-dione scaffolds in medical chemistry is underlined by the high number of drugs currently on trading that contains these active ingredients. Due to their cytotoxic capability, the interest of medicinal chemists in these heterocyclic rings has grown exponentially especially, for cancer therapy. In this project, the first synthesis of pyrazole-fused isoquinoline-5,8-diones has been developed. 1,3-Dipolar cycloaddition followed by oxidative aromatization, established by our research group, has been employed. Screening of reaction conditions and characterization studies about the regioselectivity have been successfully performed. A remote control of regioselectivity, to achieve the two possible regioisomers has been accomplished. Through Molecular Docking studies, Structure-Activity relationship of differently substituted scaffolds containing our central core proved that a family of PI3K inhibitors have been discovered. Finally, in order to verify the promising antitumor activity, a first test of cell viability in vitro on T98G cell line of a solid brain tumor, the Glioblastoma Multiforme, showed cytotoxic inhibition comparable to currently trade anticancer drugs.

Efficient Prices at Any Cost: Does Algorithmic Trading Deter Information Acquisition?

I demonstrate a powerful tension between acquiring information and incorporating it into asset prices, the two core elements of price discovery. As a salient case, I focus on the transformative rise of algorithmic trading (AT) typically associated with improved price efficiency. Using a measure of the relative information content of prices and a comprehensive panel of 37,325 stock-quarters of SEC market data, I establish instead that algorithmic trading strongly decreases the net amount of information in prices. The increase in price distortions associated with the AT “information gap” is roughly $42.6 billion/year for U.S. common stocks around earnings announcement events alone. Information losses are concentrated among stocks with high shares of algorithmic liquidity takers relative to algorithmic liquidity makers, suggesting that aggressive AT powerfully deters fundamental information acquisition despite its importance for translating available information into prices.

Representation and participation in child care proceedings: what about the voice of the parents?

In Ireland, the Constitution guarantees very strong rights to parents and the family, and there has been a long and unfortunate history of failures to adequately protect children at risk. As a result, there has been much discussion in recent years about the need to improve legal mechanisms designed to protect the rights of children. By comparison, little attention has been given to establishing whether the theoretically strong rights of parents translate into strongly protected rights in practice. This paper presents new empirical evidence on the manner in which child care proceedings in Ireland balance the rights and interests of children and parents, including the rates at which orders are granted, the frequency of and conditions in which legal representation is provided, and the extent to which parents are able to actively participate in proceedings. A number of systemic issues are identified that restrict the capacity of the system to emphasise parental rights and hear the voice of parents to the extent that would be expected when looking at the legal provisions in isolation.

Selection of a network of large lakes and reservoirs suitable for global environmental change analysis using Earth Observation

The GloboLakes project, a global observatory of lake responses to environmental change, aims to exploit current satellite missions and long remote-sensing archives to synoptically study multiple lake ecosystems, assess their current condition, reconstruct past trends to system trajectories, and assess lake sensitivity to multiple drivers of change. Here we describe the selection protocol for including lakes in the global observatory based upon remote-sensing techniques and an initial pool of the largest 3721 lakes and reservoirs in the world, as listed in the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database. An 18-year-long archive of satellite data was used to create spatial and temporal filters for the identification of waterbodies that are appropriate for remote-sensing methods. Further criteria were applied and tested to ensure the candidate sites span a wide range of ecological settings and characteristics; a total 960 lakes, lagoons, and reservoirs were selected. The methodology proposed here is applicable to new generation satellites, such as the European Space Agency Sentinel-series.

Spatial overlap of grey seals and fisheries in Irish waters, some new insights using telemetry technology and VMS

Seals and humans often target the same food resource, leading to competition. This is of mounting concern with fish stocks in global decline. Grey seals were tracked from southeast Ireland, an area of mixed demersal and pelagic fisheries, and overlap with fisheries on the Celtic Shelf and Irish Sea was assessed. Overall, there was low overlap between the tagged seals and fisheries. However, when we separate active (e.g. trawls) and passive gear (e.g. nets, lines) fisheries, a different picture emerged. Overlap with active fisheries was no different from that expected under a random distribution, but overlap with passive fisheries was significantly higher. This suggests that grey seals may be targeting the same areas as passive fisheries and/or specifically targeting passive gear. There was variation in foraging areas between individual seals suggesting habitat partitioning to reduce intra-specific competition or potential individual specialisation in foraging behaviour. Our findings support other recent assertions that seal/fisheries interactions in Irish waters are an issue in inshore passive fisheries, most likely at the operational and individual level. This suggests that seal population management measures would be unjustifiable, and mitigation is best focused on minimizing interactions at nets.

The Influence of Gene Environment Interaction on the Risk of Cognitive Impairment: Reducing Sexual Risk Behaviors and Alcohol Use in HIV-infected Adults

Memory deficits and executive dysfunction are highly prevalent among HIV-infected adults. These conditions can affect their quality of life, antiretroviral adherence, and HIV risk behaviors. Several factors have been suggested including the role of genetics in relation to HIV disease progression. This dissertation aimed to determine whether genetic differences in HIV-infected individuals were correlated with impaired memory, cognitive flexibility and executive function and whether cognitive decline moderated alcohol use and sexual transmission risk behaviors among HIV-infected alcohol abusers participating in an NIH-funded clinical trial comparing the efficacy of the adapted Holistic Health Recovery Program (HHRP-A) intervention to a Health Promotion Control (HPC) condition in reducing risk behaviors. A total of 267 individuals were genotyped for polymorphisms in the dopamine and serotonin gene systems. Results yielded significant associations for TPH2, GALM, DRD2 and DRD4 genetic variants with impaired executive function, cognitive flexibility and memory. SNPs TPH2 rs4570625 and DRD2 rs6277 showed a risk association with executive function (odds ratio = 2.5, p = .02; 3.6, p = .001). GALM rs6741892 was associated with impaired memory (odds ratio = 1.9, p = .006). At the six-month follow-up, HHRP-A participants were less likely to report trading sex for food, drugs and money (20.0%) and unprotected insertive or receptive oral (11.6%) or vaginal and/or anal sex (3.2%) than HPC participants (49.4%, p

A Market Study of Organic and Fair Trade Coffee in Bolivia

The purpose of this research is to study the commercialization of Fairtrade and Organic coffee in the Bolivia. Fairtrade and Organic coffee are alternative trade systems designed to promote the equitable and environmentally sustainable production of coffee. However, these alternative trading systems often fail to meet these goals. The producers and environment these systems are intended to protect remain marginalized. These failures are due to a number of local institutions. In order to better understand these institutions, this research conducted interviews of various stakeholders including producers, cooperative leaders, organic/Fair Trade certifiers, government agencies and private buyers. All these stakeholders influence the success of the alternative trade systems. By better understanding how these stakeholders impact the commercialization of coffee in Bolivia; new policies can be develop to improve the outcomes of alternative trade, to benefit both producers and the environment. This is especially critical in Bolivia because of the environmentally sensitive area in which coffee is grown, the potentially damaging impact of coca on the region and, the devastating economic impact to farmers.