Financial fragility, trade credit and contagion effects during the crisis: a spatial econometric approach to firm-level data

The number of distressed manufacturing firms increased sharply during recessionary phase 2009-13. Financial indebtness traditionally plays a key role in assessing firm solvency but contagion effects that originate from the supply chain are usually neglected in literature. Firm interconnections, captured via the trade credit channel, represent a primary vehicle of individual shocks’ propagation, especially during an economic downturn, when liquidity tensions arise. A representative sample of 11,920 Italian manufacturing firms is considered to model a two-step econometric design, where chain reactions in terms of trade credit accumulation (i.e. default of payments to suppliers) are primarily analyzed by resorting to a spatial autoregressive approach (SAR). Spatial interactions are modeled based on a unique dataset of firm-to-firm transactions registered before the outbreak of the crisis. The second step in instead a binary outcome model where trade credit chains are considered together with data on the bank-firm relationship to assess determinants of distress likelihoods in 2009-13. Results show that outstanding trade debt is affected by the liquidity position of a firm and by positive spatial effects. Trade credit chain reactions are found to exert, in turn, a positive impact on distress likelihoods during the crisis. The latter effect is comparable in magnitude to the one exerted by individual financial rigidity, and stresses the importance to include complex interactions between firms in the analysis of the solvency behavior.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Bathymetric Terrain Model of the Puerto Rico Trench and the Northeastern Caribbean Region for Marine Geological Investigations

Multibeam bathymetric data collected in the Puerto Rico Trench and northeastern Caribbean region are compiled into a seamless bathymetric terrain model for broad-scale geological investigations of the trench system. These data, collected during eight separate surveys between 2002 and 2013 and covering almost 180,000 square kilometers, are published here in large-format map sheet and digital spatial data. This report describes the common multibeam data collection and processing methods used to produce the bathymetric terrain model and corresponding data-source polygon. Details documenting the complete provenance of the data are provided in the metadata in the Data Catalog section.

Response of Catch-Per-Unit-Effort to Spatial and Environmental Factors: an Exploratory Data Analysis Using Generalized Additive Models

Understanding spatial distributions and how environmental conditions influence catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is important for increased fishing efficiency and sustainable fisheries management. This study investigated the relationship between CPUE, spatial factors, temperature, and depth using generalized additive models. Combinations of factors, and not one single factor, were frequently included in the best model. Parameters which best described CPUE varied by geographic region. The amount of variance, or deviance, explained by the best models ranged from a low of 29% (halibut, Charlotte region) to a high of 94% (sablefish, Charlotte region). Depth, latitude, and longitude influenced most species in several regions. On the broad geographic scale, depth was associated with CPUE for every species, except dogfish. Latitude and longitude influenced most species, except halibut (Areas 4 A/D), sablefish, and cod. Temperature was important for describing distributions of halibut in Alaska, arrowtooth flounder in British Columbia, dogfish, Alaska skate, and Aleutian skate. The species-habitat relationships revealed in this study can be used to create improved fishing and management strategies.

Feedbacks between vegetation pattern and resource loss dramatically decrease ecosystem resilience and restoration potential in a simple dryland model

Conceptual frameworks of dryland degradation commonly include ecohydrological feedbacks between landscape spatial organization and resource loss, so that decreasing cover and size of vegetation patches result in higher water and soil losses, which lead to further vegetation loss. However, the impacts of these feedbacks on dryland dynamics in response to external stress have barely been tested. Using a spatially-explicit model, we represented feedbacks between vegetation pattern and landscape resource loss by establishing a negative dependence of plant establishment on the connectivity of runoff-source areas (e.g., bare soils). We assessed the impact of various feedback strengths on the response of dryland ecosystems to changing external conditions. In general, for a given external pressure, these connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease vegetation cover at equilibrium, which indicates a decrease in ecosystem resistance. Along a gradient of gradual increase of environmental pressure (e.g., aridity), the connectivity-mediated feedbacks decrease the amount of pressure required to cause a critical shift to a degraded state (ecosystem resilience). If environmental conditions improve, these feedbacks increase the pressure release needed to achieve the ecosystem recovery (restoration potential). The impact of these feedbacks on dryland response to external stress is markedly non-linear, which relies on the non-linear negative relationship between bare-soil connectivity and vegetation cover. Modelling studies on dryland vegetation dynamics not accounting for the connectivity-mediated feedbacks studied here may overestimate the resistance, resilience and restoration potential of drylands in response to environmental and human pressures. Our results also suggest that changes in vegetation pattern and associated hydrological connectivity may be more informative early-warning indicators of dryland degradation than changes in vegetation cover.

A finite element model of perforated panel absorbers including viscothermal effects

Most of the analytical models devoted to determine the acoustic properties of a rigid perforated panel consider the acoustic impedance of a single hole and then use the porosity to determine the impedance for the whole panel. However, in the case of not homogeneous hole distribution or more complex configurations this approach is no longer valid. This work explores some of these limitations and proposes a finite element methodology that implements the linearized Navier Stokes equations in the frequency domain to analyse the acoustic performance under normal incidence of perforated panel absorbers. Some preliminary results for a homogenous perforated panel show that the sound absorption coefficient derived from the Maa analytical model does not match those from the simulations. These differences are mainly attributed to the finite geometry effect and to the spatial distribution of the perforations for the numerical case. In order to confirm these statements, the acoustic field in the vicinities of the perforations is analysed for a more complex configuration of perforated panel. Additionally, experimental studies are carried out in an impedance tube for the same configuration and then compared to previous methods. The proposed methodology is shown to be in better agreement with the laboratorial measurements than the analytical approach.

Correlation between SD-OCT, immunocytochemistry and functional findings in an animal model of retinal degeneration

Purpose: The P23H rhodopsin mutation is an autosomal dominant cause of retinitis pigmentosa (RP). The degeneration can be tracked using different anatomical and functional methods. In our case, we evaluated the anatomical changes using Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography (SD-OCT) and correlated the findings with retinal thickness values determined by immunocytochemistry.Methods: Pigmented rats heterozygous for the P23H mutation, with ages between P18 and P180 were studied. Function was assessed by means of optomotor testing and ERGs. Retinal thicknesses measurements, autofluorescence and fluorescein angiography were performed using Spectralis OCT. Retinas were studied by means of immunohistochemistry. Results: Between P30 and P180, visual acuity decreased from 0.500 to 0.182 cycles per degree (cyc/deg) and contrast sensitivity decreased from 54.56 to 2.98 for a spatial frequency of 0.089 cyc/deg. Only cone-driven b-wave responses reached developmental maturity. Flicker fusions were also comparable at P29 (42 Hz). Double flash-isolated rod-driven responses were already affected at P29. Photopic responses revealed deterioration after P29.A reduction in retinal thicknesses and morphological modifications were seen in OCT sections. Statistically significant differences were found in all evaluated thicknesses. Autofluorescence was seen in P23H rats as sparse dots. Immunocytochemistry showed a progressive decrease in the outer nuclear layer (ONL), and morphological changes. Although anatomical thickness measures were significantly lower than OCT values, there was a very strong correlation between the values measured by both techniques.Conclusions: In pigmented P23H rats, a progressive deterioration occurs in both retinal function and anatomy. Anatomical changes can be effectively evaluated using SD-OCT and immunocytochemistry, with a good correlation between their values, thus making SD-OCT an important tool for research in retinal degeneration.

Apoptosis in experimental cerebral malaria: spatial profile of cleaved caspase-3 and ultrastructural alterations in different disease stages

Cerebral malaria (CM) is associated with high mortality and morbidity as a certain percentage of survivors suffers from persistent neurological sequelae. The mechanisms leading to death and functional impairments are yet not fully understood. This study investigated biochemical and morphological markers of apoptosis in the brains of mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA. Cleaved caspase-3 was detected in the brains of animals with clinical signs of CM and immunoreactivity directly correlated with the clinical severity of the disease. Caudal parts of the brain showed more intense immunoreactivity for cleaved caspase-3. Double-labelling experiments revealed processing of caspase-3 primarily in neurons and oligodendrocytes. These cells also exhibited apoptotic-like morphological profiles in ultrastructural analysis. Further, cleavage of caspase-3 was found in endothelial cells. In contrast to neurons and oligodendrocytes, apoptosis of endothelial cells already occurred in early stages of the disease. Our results are the first to demonstrate processing of caspase-3 in different central nervous system cells of animals with CM. Apoptosis of endothelial cells may represent a critical issue for the development of the disease in the mouse model. Neurological signs and symptoms might be attributable, at least in part, to apoptotic degeneration of neurons and glia in advanced stages of murine CM.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.

Tidal and spatial variations of DI13C and aquatic chemistry in a temperate tidal basin during winter time

Here, the pelagic carbonate system and the ?13C signature of dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC) were investigated in a tidal basin of the southern North Sea, the Jade Bay, with respect to tidal cycles and a transect towards the North Sea in winter time (January and November, 2010). Physical parameters, major and trace elements, and nutrient concentrations were considered, too. Primary production and pelagic organic matter respiration were negligible during winter time. Both, the compositional variations on the transects as well as during the tidal cycles indicate the mixing of North Sea with fresh water. The combined spatial co-variations of different parameters indicate an introduction of fresh water that was enriched in DI12C, metabolites (e.g., ammonia), protons, and dissolved redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Mn2+). During the January campaign, the discharge via the flood gates was limited due to ice cover of the hinterland drainage ditches, allowing for an observation of tidal variations without significant mixing contributions from surface water discharges. Considering a binary mixing model with North Sea and fresh water as end-members, the extrapolated fresh water end-member composition for this campaign is estimated to contain about 3.8 mmol/kg DIC , and enhanced concentrations of NH4+, Mn2+, and protons compared to North Sea water. The fast temporal response of dissolved geochemical tracers on tidal variations in the Jade Bay indicates a continuous supply of a fresh water component. The measured composition of fresh waters entering the Jade Bay via flood gates (end of October, 2010) did not match the values estimated by the binary mixing model. Therefore, the overall fresh water component likely is a mixture between sources originating from flood gates and (in January) dominating submarine groundwater discharge entering the Jade Bay. This model is consistent with the results obtained during the November campaign, when a more important contribution from flood gates is expected and a more variable fresh water end-member is estimated. The co-variations of the concentrations and the stable carbon isotope composition of DIC are applied to evaluate possible superimposed sink-source-transformation processes in the coastal waters and a general co-variation scheme is suggested.

Modelled spatial and seasonal distribution of Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) larvae in the North-East Atlantic (1951 to 2005)

Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

Spatial and temporal characteristics of summer precipitation over Central Europe in a suite of high-resolution climate models

High-impact, localized intense rainfall episodes represent a major socio-economic problem for societies worldwide, and at the same time these events are notoriously difficult to simulate properly in climate models. Here, the authors investigate how horizontal resolution and model formulation influence this issue by applying the HARMONIE regional climate model (HCLIM) with three different setups; two using convection parameterization at 15 and 6.25 km horizontal resolution (the latter within the “grey-zone” scale), with lateral boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim reanalysis and integrated over a pan-European domain, and one with explicit convection at 2 km resolution (HCLIM2) over the Alpine region driven by the 15 km model. Seven summer seasons were sampled and validated against two high-resolution observational data sets. All HCLIM versions underestimate the number of dry days and hours by 20-40%, and overestimate precipitation over the Alpine ridge. Also, only modest added value were found of “grey-zone” resolution. However, the single most important outcome is the substantial added value in HCLIM2 compared to the coarser model versions at sub-daily time scales. It better captures the local-to-regional spatial patterns of precipitation reflecting a more realistic representation of the local and meso-scale dynamics. Further, the duration and spatial frequency of precipitation events, as well as extremes, are closer to observations. These characteristics are key ingredients in heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods, and the outstanding results using HCLIM in convection-permitting setting are convincing and encourage further use of the model to study changes in such events in changing climates.

Genetic variation and inference of demographic histories in non-model species

Both long-term environmental changes such as those driven by the glacial cycles and more recent anthropogenic impacts have had major effects on the past demography in wild organisms. Within species, these changes are reflected in the amount and distribution of neutral genetic variation. In this thesis, mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA was analysed to investigate how environmental and anthropogenic factors have affected genetic diversity and structure in four ecologically different animal species. Paper I describes the post-glacial recolonisation history of the speckled-wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria) in Northern Europe. A decrease in genetic diversity with latitude and a marked population structure were uncovered, consistent with a hypothesis of repeated founder events during the postglacial recolonisation. Moreover, Approximate Bayesian Computation analyses indicate that the univoltine populations in Scandinavia and Finland originate from recolonisations along two routes, one on each side of the Baltic. Paper II aimed to investigate how past sea-level rises affected the population history of the convict surgeonfish (Acanthurus triostegus) in the Indo-Pacific. Assessment of the species’ demographic history suggested a population expansion that occurred approximately at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, the results demonstrated an overall lack of phylogeographic structure, probably due to the high dispersal rates associated with the species’ pelagic larval stage. Populations at the species’ eastern range margin were significantly differentiated from other populations, which likely is a consequence of their geographic isolation. In Paper III, we assessed the effect of human impact on the genetic variation of European moose (Alces alces) in Sweden. Genetic analyses revealed a spatial structure with two genetic clusters, one in northern and one in southern Sweden, which were separated by a narrow transition zone. Moreover, demographic inference suggested a recent population bottleneck. The inferred timing of this bottleneck coincided with a known reduction in population size in the 19th and early 20th century due to high hunting pressure. In Paper IV, we examined the effect of an indirect but well-described human impact, via environmental toxic chemicals (PCBs), on the genetic variation of Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra) in Sweden. Genetic clustering assignment revealed differentiation between otters in northern and southern Sweden, but also in the Stockholm region. ABC analyses indicated a decrease in effective population size in both northern and southern Sweden. Moreover, comparative analyses of historical and contemporary samples demonstrated a more severe decline in genetic diversity in southern Sweden compared to northern Sweden, in agreement with the levels of PCBs found.

Digital surface model, hillshade and orthophoto of the world's largest fossil oyster reef, links to GeoTIFFs

The world's largest fossil oyster reef, formed by the giant oyster Crassostrea gryphoides and located in Stetten (north of Vienna, Austria) is studied by Harzhauser et al., 2015, 2016; Djuricic et al., 2016. Digital documentation of the unique geological site is provided by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) at the millimeter scale. Obtaining meaningful results is not merely a matter of data acquisition with a suitable device; it requires proper planning, data management, and postprocessing. Terrestrial laser scanning technology has a high potential for providing precise 3D mapping that serves as the basis for automatic object detection in different scenarios; however, it faces challenges in the presence of large amounts of data and the irregular geometry of an oyster reef. We provide a detailed description of the techniques and strategy used for data collection and processing in Djuricic et al., 2016. The use of laser scanning provided the ability to measure surface points of 46,840 (estimated) shells. They are up to 60-cm-long oyster specimens, and their surfaces are modeled with a high accuracy of 1 mm. In addition to laser scanning measurements, more than 300 photographs were captured, and an orthophoto mosaic was generated with a ground sampling distance (GSD) of 0.5 mm. This high-resolution 3D information and the photographic texture serve as the basis for ongoing and future geological and paleontological analyses. Moreover, they provide unprecedented documentation for conservation issues at a unique natural heritage site.