Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Political Legitimacy and Ethnocultural Justice. Essays on Public Reason, Democratic Citizenship, and the Rights of Cultural Minorities

In this thesis, I argue that there are public cultural reasons that can underpin public justifications of minority rights of indigenous and national minorities in a constitutionaldemocracy. I do so by tackling diverse issues facing a liberal theory of multiculturalism. In the first essay, I criticize Will Kymlicka’s comprehensive liberal theory of minority rights and propose a political liberal alternative. The main problem of Will Kymlicka’s theory is that it builds on the contestable liberal value of individual autonomy and thus fails to take diversity seriously. In the second essay, I elaborate on the Rawlsian political liberalism assumed here by criticizing Chandran Kukathas’s version of political liberalism as overly accommodating to diversity. In the third essay, I discuss questions of method that arise for a political liberal approach to the moral-political foundations of multiculturalism, and propose a certain understanding of the political liberal enterprise and its crucial standard of reasonableness. In the fourth essay, I dwell on the political liberal ethic of citizenship and propose a strongly inclusionist interpretation of the duty of civility. In the fifth and last essay, I introduce a certain understanding of ethnocultural justice and propose a view on certain cultural reasons as public cultural reasons. Cultural reasons are public when they are based on necessarily established cultural marks of a democratic polity, as specified by the cultural establishment view; and when they are crucial for the societal cultural bases of self-respect of citizens. The arguments in this thesis support, and help to spell out, moral-political rights of indigenous and national minorities as formulated in international legal documents, such as the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (United Nations 2007) or the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (United Nations 1966).

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARCTIC Strategic opportunities and threats for Finnish companies

The Arctic environment is changing constantly. There are several factors that constitute to the rate and immensity of the development. The region differs from the surrounding markets that most of the countries in the region have been used to. Therefore the purpose of the study was to understand how the political environment affects Finnish companies’ strategies and business operations. The issues analyzed were the political environment in the region, the business environment and economic development, and the opportunities and threats that the Finnish companies have in Arctic. The main theories were found from strategic management and market analysis tools. The different theories and definitions were gone through in order to understand the context of the study. This is a qualitative study that uses content analysis as its main method of analyzing the data. Therefore the data analyzed was gathered from already existing material and it was analyzed until the saturation point was found. This was done in order to minimize the risks related to using secondary data. The data collected was then categorized into themes accordingly. First the general political environment in the Arctic was studied, especially the Arctic Council and its work as the main political entity. From there the focus shifted to the business environment and the general opportunities and threats that are found from Arctic economic development. China offered another point of view to this as it represented a non-Arctic state with a keen interest on the region. Lastly the two previous objectives were combined and looked through from a Finnish perspective. Finnish companies have a great starting point to Arctic business and the operational business environment gives them the framework with which they have to operate in. As a conclusion it can be said that there are three main factors leading the Arctic economic development; the climate change, the development of technology, and the political environment. These set the framework with which the companies operating in the region must comply with. The industry that is likely to lead the development is the marine industry. Furthermore it became evident that the Finnish companies operating in the Arctic face many opportunities as well as threats which can be utilized, taken advantage of or controlled through effective strategic management. The key characteristics needed in the region are openness and understanding of the challenging environment and the ability to face and manage the arising challenges.

The battle over deficits : the struggle to maintain Canada's social welfare state : a thesis /

Abstract This thesis seeks to answer a number of questions concerning the deficit and debt in Canada. It focuses pri.arily on the federal level of government but with SOBe discussion of provincial governaent policy as well. In ~997, Canada's federal debt caae close ro six hundred billion dollars - $594 billion or 74.4 % of Gross Do.estic Product (GDP) to be exact. The purpose of this theses is threefold: To find out why Canada accu.ulated such a debt, to discover if there is a so-called debt crisis; and to discover if it is possible to preserve Canada's national welfare state given the financial restraints that have been adopted by both federal and provincial governments. Politicians are torn between economist' two contrasting views regarding deficits: Neo-Keynesian and neo-conservative. The neoKeynesian school focuses al1llOst exclusively on the short term stability of the economy and tends to dismiss concerns regarding the level of debt. Neo conservatives focus almost exclusively on the perceived costs of growth in the national debt and are willing to forego any stabilization benefits to ensure that the debt is controlled. These polar view do have one thing in coa.on; both confix-. that deficits influence govermaent policies. Both of these econoBic theories will have far-reaching influences on the federal gover1lJlJent's decision-making process. These economic theories will be discussed throughout this thesis.

Why are people liberal? : a motivated social cognition perspective

The present dissertation examined why people adopt or endorse certain political ideologies (i.e., liberal or conservative). According to a motivated social cognition perspective (Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, & Sulloway, 2003a; Kruglansl

Fade to black : picturing mortality in contemporary popular film /

This thesis attempts to understand representations of death in contemporary popular film within a framework that posits mortality as a category of particular social and political importance for the way we understand both individual subjectivity and social responsibility in the postmodern cultural moment. It addresses concerns over the social organizing categories of time and space, and performs a sustained consideration of predominant themes related to the popular representation of death, such as contingency, existential.meaning, and temporal finitude. Death consciousness and social consciousness are shown to be not just intertwined, but also vitally dependent on one another, and the analyses undertaken are ultimately aimed at making these intersections explicit in order • l to think through their potential implications for challenging consumer capitalist hegemony and envisioning the possibility of progressive social change through the lens of our mortality.

Rhapsodes of social science : Herodotus' performance of politeic inquiry

Herodotus' logos represents many examples ofthe relationship between political and paradigmatic authority, and the synthesis ofthese examples in a community characterized by free and equal speech. Herodotus' walkabout narrator sets forth an inquiry into knowledge-seeking he extends the isegoria principle from Athenian politics to the broader world. The History demonstrates (a) various modes of constructing meaning, (b) interacting notions ofhow people have lived and living questions as to how we ought to live, and (c) an investigation ofthe nature and limits ofhuman knowledge. Representing diverse wisdom, publicly and privately discovered and presented, Herodotus sets forth Solon's wise advice and law-making, the capital punishment of the learned Anacharsis, the investigative outrages of Cambyses and Psammetichus' more pious experiments. Their stories challenge and complement their communities' characters - the relative constraint under which the Egyptians and Persians make their investigations, the Scythians' qualified openness and the relative fearlessness and freedom in which the Greeks set forth their inquiries. Setting forth the investigator-storykeeper as a poetic historian, Herodotus shows that history as poetry thwarts natural decay by allowing custom to be reformed in an open milieu, and thus win through and survive. Despite the potential dangers that openness shares with tyranny, Herodotus' inquiry sets up a contest ofworld-views in which it is mutability that openness affords a community that ensures its survival.

Native women, theory and research : contexts and contestations

In this thesis I outline a critical approach to interpreting the considerable academic literature on Aboriginal women in North America. I locate the scholarship concerning Native women within an understanding of three developments related to a philosophy of science: (I) paradigmatic shifts concerning the philosophy of science, (2) materialist-idealist debates and (3) transitions in feminist theory characterized by what is tenned the shift from second to third wave feminism. My exploration of emergent themes suggests that the elements indicated above provide overlapping frameworks within which most scholarship about Indigenous women is positioned. I illustrate my finding that employing critical discourse analysis and postcolonial feminism as both method and theory provides a useful approach in attending to intersecting experiences of 'race, class, and gender.' I view these intersecting experiences as central to the socio-political positioning of Indigenous women within contemporary feminist theorizing. I conclude my thesis by reflecting on the conceptual struggles I experienced in fonnulating and organizing the thesis and the significance of my underlying epistemological position and value-orientation as both a feminist and Native woman.

A constructivist grounded theory of firefighter perceptions of stress, coping and the relationship to health

This qualitative research was a constructivist grounded theory designed to develop an understanding of how firefighters perceive and cope with stressful situations and the impact this has on their perceptions of health. This study was framed in a social ecological perspective with the community of firefighting providing the environment within which to explore stress and coping. Of particular concern here are the stressors associated with firefighting. Prior research with firefighters has often been epidemiological and statistical in nature, focusing on measures of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and depression (Baker & Williams, 2001 ; Brown et al., 2002; Murphy et al.,1999; Regehr et al., 2002; Regehr et al., 2003). Qualitative research examining the perception of stress among firefighters that includes personal stories allows firefighters the opportunity to describe what it is like to be met with physically and mentally challenging situations on a daily basis. Twelve in-depth, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with a brief questionnaire were conducted with firefighters from a Southern Ontario Fire Department. Four main themes emerged describing the persona of the firefighter, the stressors of firefighters, coping strategies of firefighters, and firefighters' perceptions of health. Stressors include requirements of the job, traumatic calls, tensions with co-workers, the struggle between the family at home and the family at work, political stressors with the City, and the inner struggle. Avoidance coping, approach coping, and gaining perspective emerged as the three coping styles of firefighters. Health was defined as including physical, mental, social and spiritual aspects. A model of the findings is provided that depicts the cyclical nature of the stress-coping-health relationship among firefighters.

A crisis of social democracy : organized labour and the NDP in an era of neoliberalism

The NDP was founded out of the ashes of the Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation to cooperate with the Canadian Labour Congress to become the 'political arm of organized labour' in Canada. The NDP has long claimed they are the party which represents the policy goals of organized labour in Canada: that the NDP alone will fight for trade union rights, and will fight for Canadian workers. Divergent Paths is an examination of the links between the labour movement and the ND P in an era ofneo-liberalism. Provincial NDP governments have become increasingly neoliberal in their ideological orientation, and have often proved to be no friend to the labour movement when they hold office. The Federal party has never held power, nor have they ever formed the Official Opposition. This thesis charts the progress of the federal NDP as they become more neoliberal from 1988 to 2006, and shows how this trend effects the links between the NDP and labour. Divergent Paths studies each federal election from 1988 to 2006, looking at the interactions between Labour and the NDP during these elections. Elections provide critical junctions to study discourse - party platforms, speeches, and other official documents can be used to examine discourse. Extensive newspaper searches were used to follow campaign events and policy speeches. Studying the party's discourse can be used to determine the ideological orientation of the party itself: the fact that the party's discourse has become neoliberal is a sure sign that the party itself is neoliberal. The NDP continues to drive towards the centre of the political spectrum in an attempt to gain multi-class support. The NDP seems more interested in gaining seats at any cost, rather then promoting the agenda of Labour. As the party attempts to open up to more multi-class support, Labour becomes increasingly marginalised in the party. A rift which arguably started well before the 1988 election was exacerbated during that election; labour encouraged the NDP to campaign solely on the issue of Free Trade, and the NDP did not. The 1993 election saw the rift between the two grow even further as the Federal NDP suffered major blowbacks from the actions of the Ontario NDP. The 1997 and 2000 elections saw the NDP make a deliberate move to the centre of the political spectrum which increasingly marginalised labour. In the 2004 election, Jack Layton made no attempt to move the party back to the left; and in 2006 the link between labour and the NDP was perhaps irreparably damaged when the CAW endorsed the Liberal party in a strategic voting strategy, and the CLC did not endorse the NDP. The NDP is no longer a reliable ally of organized labour. The Canadian labour movement must decide wether the NDP can be 'salvaged' or if the labour movement should end their alliance with the NDP and engage in a new political project.

I must walk through the gate : an ontological necessity

This research is a self-study into my life as an athlete, elementary school teacher, leamer, and as a teacher educator/academic. Throughout the inquiry, I explore how my beliefs and values infused my lived experiences and ultimately influenced my constructivist, humanist, and ultimately my holistic teaching and learning practice which at times disrupted the status quo. I have written a collection of narratives (data generation) which embodied my identity as an unintelligent student/leamer, a teacher/learner, an experiential learner, a tenacious participant, and a change agent to name a few. As I unpack my stories and hermeneutically reconstruct their intent, I question their meaning as I explore how I can improve my teaching and learning practice and potentially effect positive change when instructing beginning teacher candidates at a Faculty of Education. At the outset I situate my story and provide the necessary political, social, and cultural background information to ground my research. I follow this with an in depth look at the elements that interconnect the theoretical framework of this self-study by presenting the notion of writing at the boundaries through auto ethnography (Ellis, 2000; Ellis & Bochner, 2004) and writing as a method of inquiry (Richardson, 2000). The emergent themes of experiential learning, identity, and embodied knowing surfaced during the data generation phase. I use the Probyn' s (1990) .. metaphor of locatedness to unpack these themes and ponder the question, Where is experience located? I deepen the exploration by layering Drake's (2007) KnowlDo/Be framework alongside locatedness and offer descriptions of learning moments grounded in pedagogical theories. In the final phase, I introduce thirdspace theory (Bhabha, 1994; Soja, 1996) as a space that allowed me to puzzle educational dilemmas and begin to reconcile the binaries that existed in my life both personally, and professionally. I end where I began by revisiting the questions that drove this study. In addition, Ireflect upon the writing process and the challenges that I encountered while immersed in this approach and contemplate the relevance of conducting a self-study. I leave the reader with what is waiting for me on the other side of the gate, for as Henry James suggested, "Experience is never limited, and it is never complete."

A Study of One Living School Partnership

Abstract The purpose of this paper was to explore the ways one partnership evaluated its partners and relationships using Gray‟s model of collaboration (2000). The model consists of five approaches that are made up of: problem-focused, relational, cognitive, structural, and political. These approaches were tested at one „Living School‟ partnership that was constituted by a school, a public health department, the City‟s Park and Recreation Department, commercial enterprises, and organizations from the non-profit sector. Eight pre-arranged interviews were conducted using conversational interview technique, with three additional interviews on-site. The results of the research revealed that based on Gray‟s five approaches, this one Living School partnership was found to be successful. Consistent with partnership research, trust, social capital and structure were found to be key ingredients, as well as new themes of leadership, role clarity, and a shared vision were also found to be vital.

Wild Civility: Cultivating the Foundations of Social Justice through Participation in a Wilderness Program

This heuristic inquiry examined if the foundations of social justice knowledge and beliefs were developed as a result of participation in a wilderness program and what knowledge and beliefs were developed. There were six participants in this study. Data collection involved participants completing pre- and post- program interviews and daily journals during the program. Through inductive analysis six themes emerged. Three of these were related to the development of certain foundations of social justice: (a) experienced conflict development and resolution; (b) experienced relationship change and development; and (c) shift from “me” to “we” mentality. The remaining three themes were included as additional findings: (a) experienced personal change and development; (b) identification of specific factors of the program responsible for changes; and (c) bringing learning back to everyday life. Results highlight wilderness program impacts on participants’ social justice knowledges and beliefs and inform wilderness program providers and social justice educators.

Developing Life Skills through Physical Activity: A Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility Model Approach

Ethnographic methods were used to study a weekly after-school physical activity program over an eight-month period. Based on Hellison’s Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) model, the program sought to foster positive life skills amongst youth. The study investigated how the developed program influenced this life skills education experience. Several themes were identified from the data revolving around culture, life skills, pedagogy, and lessons learned. Data suggests that the positive environment developed within the program positively influenced youths’ life skill education experience. The topic of ethnicity as it relates to the experience of marginalized youth in physical activity settings is also discussed. This study supports TPSR literature and suggests that effort to establish caring relationships and empower youth contribute to the establishment of a positive atmosphere where life skills education can occur. Beyond this, practical tools were developed through this study to help others deliver life skill education.