Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Discursos y prácticas culturales durante “La revolución en marcha”. Reforma educativa y cambio social

La República Liberal (1930-1946) se reconoce por los intentos de trasforma­ción social, aunque pueda cuestionarse su profundidad e impacto en la socie­dad. Los propósitos de trasformación intentan adaptar el país a los desafíos del capitalismo industrial y la moder­nidad intelectual. En este marco de cambios, se propone también la modifi­cación de los discursos y prácticas cul­turales para la modernización del país y, con ello, el evidente progreso que significaba, de los anhelos en boga, el avance hacia modelos de organización social. Una reforma estructural de la organización social exigía modificacio­nes en la conciencia de los individuos para que incorporasen los nuevos proyectos. Discurso y práctica cultural buscan, de esta forma, la modificación de las ideas de los individuos para su­marlos a los proyectos y reformas que estaban en marcha.

The big four skills: Teachers’ assumptions on measurement of non-native students cognition

The four-skills on tests for young native speakers commonly do not generate correlation incongruency concerning the cognitive strategies frequently reported. Considering the non-native speakers there are parse evidence to determine which tasks are important to assess properly the cognitive and academic language proficiency (Cummins, 1980; 2012). Research questions: It is of high probability that young students with origin in immigration significantly differ on their communication strategies and skills in a second language processing context (1); attached to this first assumption, it is supposed that teachers significantly differ depending on their scientific area and previous training (2). Purpose: This study intends to examine whether school teachers (K-12) as having different origin in scientific domain of teaching and training perceive differently an adapted four-skills scale, in European Portuguese. Research methods: 77 teachers of five areas scientific areas, mean of teaching year service = 32 (SD= 2,7), 57 males and 46 females (from basic and high school levels). Main findings: ANOVA (Effect size and Post-hoc Tukey tests) and linear regression analysis (stepwise method) revealed statistically significant differences among teachers of different areas, mainly between language teachers and science teachers. Language teachers perceive more accurately tasks in a multiple manner to the broad skills that require to be measured in non-native students. Conclusion: If teachers perceive differently the importance of the big-four tasks, there would be incongruence on skills measurement that teachers select for immigrant puppils. Non-balanced tasks and the teachers’ perceptions on evaluation and toward competence of students would likely determine limitations for academic and cognitive development of non-native students. Furthermore, results showed sufficient evidence to conclude that tasks are perceived differently by teachers toward importance of specific skills subareas. Reading skills are best considered compared to oral comphreension skills in non-native students.

REFUGEES AND RESETTLEMENT: A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REFUGEE INTEGRATION THROUGH SOCIAL & SUPPORT SERVICES

This dissertation studies refugee resettlement in the United States utilizing the Integration Indicator’s framework developed by Ager and Strang for the U.S. context. The study highlights the U.S. refugee admissions program and the policies in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts while analyzing the service delivery models and its effects on refugee integration in these locations. Though immigration policy and funding for refugee services are primarily the domain of the federal government, funds are allocated through and services are delivered at the state level. The Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), which operates under the Department of Health and Human Services, was established after the Refugee Act of 1980 to deliver assistance to displaced persons. The ORR provides funds to individual states primarily through The Refugee Social Service and Targeted Assistance Formula Grant programs. Since the inauguration of the ORR three primary models of refugee integration through service delivery have emerged. Two of the models include the publicly/privately administered programs, where resources are allocated to the state in conjunction with private voluntary agencies; and the Wilson/Fish Alternative programs, where states sub-contract all elements of the resettlement program to voluntary agencies and private organizations —in which they can cease all state level participation and voluntary agencies or private organizations contract directly from the ORR in order for all states to deliver refugee services where the live. The specific goals of this program are early employment and economic self-sufficiency. This project utilizes US Census, state, and ORR data in conjunction with interviews of refugee resettlement practitioners involved in the service delivery and refugees. The findings show that delivery models emphasizing job training, English instruction courses, institutional collaboration, and monetary assistance, increases refugee acclimation and adaptation, providing insight into their potential for integration into the United States.

A Fuzzy Decision Strategy for Topic Identification and Dynamic Selection of Language Models

International audience

The Role of Attachment in a Social Cognitive Model of Social Domain Satisfaction in College Students

The study examined a modified social cognitive model of domain satisfaction (Lent, 2004). In addition to social cognitive variables and trait positive affect, the model included two aspects of adult attachment, attachment anxiety and avoidance. The study extended recent research on well-being and satisfaction in academic, work, and social domains. The adjusted model was tested in a sample of 454 college students, in order to determine the role of adult attachment variables in explaining social satisfaction, above and beyond the direct and indirect effects of trait positive affect. Confirmatory factor analysis found support for 8 correlated factors in the modified model: social domain satisfaction, positive affect, attachment avoidance, attachment anxiety, social support, social self-efficacy, social outcome expectations, and social goal progress. Three alternative structural models were tested to account for the ways in which attachment anxiety and attachment avoidance might relate to social satisfaction. Results of model testing provided support for a model in which attachment avoidance produced only an indirect path to social satisfaction via self-efficacy and social support. Positive affect, avoidance, social support, social self-efficacy, and goal progress each produced significant direct or indirect paths to social domain satisfaction, though attachment anxiety and social outcome expectations did not contribute to the predictive model. Implications of the findings regarding the modified social cognitive model of social domain satisfaction were discussed.

ADVERTISEMENT ALLOCATION AND TRUST MECHANISMS DESIGN IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Social network sites (SNS), such as Facebook, Google+ and Twitter, have attracted hundreds of millions of users daily since their appearance. Within SNS, users connect to each other, express their identity, disseminate information and form cooperation by interacting with their connected peers. The increasing popularity and ubiquity of SNS usage and the invaluable user behaviors and connections give birth to many applications and business models. We look into several important problems within the social network ecosystem. The first one is the SNS advertisement allocation problem. The other two are related to trust mechanisms design in social network setting, including local trust inference and global trust evaluation. In SNS advertising, we study the problem of advertisement allocation from the ad platform's angle, and discuss its differences with the advertising model in the search engine setting. By leveraging the connection between social networks and hyperbolic geometry, we propose to solve the problem via approximation using hyperbolic embedding and convex optimization. A hyperbolic embedding method, \hcm, is designed for the SNS ad allocation problem, and several components are introduced to realize the optimization formulation. We show the advantages of our new approach in solving the problem compared to the baseline integer programming (IP) formulation. In studying the problem of trust mechanisms in social networks, we consider the existence of distrust (i.e. negative trust) relationships, and differentiate between the concept of local trust and global trust in social network setting. In the problem of local trust inference, we propose a 2-D trust model. Based on the model, we develop a semiring-based trust inference framework. In global trust evaluation, we consider a general setting with conflicting opinions, and propose a consensus-based approach to solve the complex problem in signed trust networks.

VOX POPULI: THREE ESSAYS ON THE USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA FOR VALUE CREATION IN SERVICES

Prior research shows that electronic word of mouth (eWOM) wields considerable influence over consumer behavior. However, as the volume and variety of eWOM grows, firms are faced with challenges in analyzing and responding to this information. In this dissertation, I argue that to meet the new challenges and opportunities posed by the expansion of eWOM and to more accurately measure its impacts on firms and consumers, we need to revisit our methodologies for extracting insights from eWOM. This dissertation consists of three essays that further our understanding of the value of social media analytics, especially with respect to eWOM. In the first essay, I use machine learning techniques to extract semantic structure from online reviews. These semantic dimensions describe the experiences of consumers in the service industry more accurately than traditional numerical variables. To demonstrate the value of these dimensions, I show that they can be used to substantially improve the accuracy of econometric models of firm survival. In the second essay, I explore the effects on eWOM of online deals, such as those offered by Groupon, the value of which to both consumers and merchants is controversial. Through a combination of Bayesian econometric models and controlled lab experiments, I examine the conditions under which online deals affect online reviews and provide strategies to mitigate the potential negative eWOM effects resulting from online deals. In the third essay, I focus on how eWOM can be incorporated into efforts to reduce foodborne illness, a major public health concern. I demonstrate how machine learning techniques can be used to monitor hygiene in restaurants through crowd-sourced online reviews. I am able to identify instances of moral hazard within the hygiene inspection scheme used in New York City by leveraging a dictionary specifically crafted for this purpose. To the extent that online reviews provide some visibility into the hygiene practices of restaurants, I show how losses from information asymmetry may be partially mitigated in this context. Taken together, this dissertation contributes by revisiting and refining the use of eWOM in the service sector through a combination of machine learning and econometric methodologies.

Procedimento para estudo da escolha modal em viagens realizadas por estudantes de instituições de ensino médio, mediado pela psicologia social

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

COLLEGE STUDENTS’ ATTITUDES TOWARD SEEKING PROFESSIONAL HELP: THE ROLE OF SOCIAL CLASS, CLASSISM, AND STIGMA

Research on attitudes toward seeking professional help among college students has examined the influence of social class and stigma. This study tested 4 theoretically and empirically derived structural equation models of college students’ attitudes toward seeking counseling with a sample of 2230 incoming university students. The models represented competing hypotheses regarding the manners in which objective social class, subjective social class, classism, public stigma, stigma by close others, and self-stigma related to attitudes toward seeking professional help. Findings supported the social class direct and indirect effects model, as well as the notion that classism and stigma domains could explain the indirect relationships between social class and attitudes. Study limitations, future directions for research, and implications for counseling are discussed.

Teachers' legitimacy: Effects of justice perception and social comparison processes

Background. Teachers’ legitimacy is central to school functioning. Teachers’ justice, whether distributive or procedural, predicts teachers’ legitimacy. Aims. What is still do be found, and constitutes the goal of this paper, is whether unjust treatment by a teacher affects the legitimacy of the teacher differently when the student knows that the teacher was fair to a peer (comparative judgement) or when the student does not have that information (autonomous judgement). Samples. A total of 79 high school students participated in Study 1; 75 high school students participated in Study 2. Methods. Two experimental studies with a 2 justice valence (just, unjust) 9 2 social comparison processes (autonomous judgements, comparative judgements) betweenparticipants design were conducted. Study 1 addressed distributive justice and Study 2 addressed procedural justice. The dependent variable was teachers’ legitimacy. Results. In both studies, situations perceived as just led to higher teachers’ legitimacy than situations perceived as unjust. For the distributive injustice conditions, teachers’ legitimacy was equally lower for autonomous judgement and comparative judgement conditions. For procedural injustice, teachers’ legitimacy was lower when the peer was treated justly and the participant was treated unfairly, compared with the condition when the participants did not know how the teacher treated the peer. Conclusions. We conclude that teachers’ injustice affects teachers’ legitimacy, but it does it differently according to the social comparisons involved and the type of justice involved. Moreover, these results highlight that social comparisons are an important psychological process and, therefore, they should be taken into account in models of justice.

Social security status and mortality in Belgian and Spanish male workers

Objective: To assess differences in mortality rates between social security statuses in two independent samples of Belgian and Spanish male workers. Methods: Study of two retrospective cohorts (Belgium, n = 23,607; Spain, n = 44,385) of 50-60 year old male employees with 4 years of follow-up. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: Mortality for subjects with permanent disability was higher than for the employed, for both Belgium [MRR = 4.56 (95% CI: 2.88-7.21)] and Spain [MRR = 7.15 (95% CI: 5.37-9.51)]. For the unemployed/early retirees, mortality was higher in Spain [MRR = 1.64 (95% CI: 1.24-2.17)] than in Belgium [MRR = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.46-1.71)]. Conclusion: MRR differences between Belgium and Spain for unemployed workers could be partly explained because of differences between the two social security systems. Future studies should further explore mortality differences between countries with different social security systems.

Determinants of engagement in virtual social networks in Singapore

The use of virtual social networks (VSNs) has been prevalent among consumers worldwide. Numerous studies have investigated various aspects of VSNs. However, these studies have mainly focused on students and young adults as they were early adopters of these innovative networks. A search of the literature revealed there has been a paucity of research on adult consumers’ use of VSNs. This research study addressed this gap in the literature by examining the determinants of engagement in VSNs among adult consumers in Singapore. The objectives of this study are to empirically investigate the determinants of engagement in VSNs and to offer theoretical insights into consumers’ preference and usage of VSNs. This study tapped upon several theories developed in the discipline of technology and innovation adoption. These were Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation, Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), Conceptual Framework of Individual Innovation Adoption by Frambach and Schillewaert (2002), Enhanced Model of Innovation Adoption by Talukder (2011), Extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) and the Information Systems (IS) Success Model. The proposed research model, named the Media Usage Model (MUM), is a framework rooted in innovation diffusion and IS theories. The MUM distilled the essence of these established models and thus provides an updated, lucid explanation of engagement in VSNs. A cross-sectional, online social survey was conducted to collect quantitative data to examine the validity of the proposed research model. Multivariate data analysis was carried out on a data set comprising 806 usable responses by utilizing SPSS, and for structural equation modeling AMOS and SmartPLS. The results indicate that consumer attitude towards VSNs is significantly and positively influenced by: three individual factors – hedonic motivation, incentives and experience; two system characteristics – system quality and information quality; and one social factor – social bonding. Consumer demographics were found to influence people’s attitudes towards VSNs. In addition, consumer experience and attitude towards VSNs significantly and positively influence their usage of VSNs. The empirical data supported the proposed research model, explaining 80% of variance in attitude towards VSNs and 45% of variance in usage of VSNs. Therefore, the MUM achieves a definite contribution to theoretical knowledge of consumer engagement in VSNs by deepening and broadening our appreciation of the intricacies related to use of VSNs in Singapore. This study’s findings have implications for customer service management, services marketing and consumer behavior. These findings also have strategic implications for maximizing efficient utilization and effective management of VSNs by businesses and operators. The contributions of this research are: firstly, shifting the boundaries of technology or innovation adoption theories from research on employees to consumers as well as the boundaries of Internet usage or adoption research from students to adults, which is also known as empirical generalization; secondly, highlighting the issues associated with lack of significance of social factors in adoption research; and thirdly, augmenting information systems research by integrating important antecedents for success in information systems.

Social Mobility and Demand for Redistribution. A Comparative Analysis

The literature on preferences for redistribution has paid little attention to the effect of social mobility on the demand for redistribution, which is in contrast with the literature on class-voting, where studies on the effect of social mobility has been very common. Some works have addressed this issue but no systematic test of the hypotheses connecting social mobility and preferences has been done. In this paper we use the diagonal reference models to estimate the effect of origin and destination class on preferences for redistribution in a sample of European countries using data from the European Social Survey. Our findings indicate that social origin matters to a little extent to explain preferences, as newcomers tend to adopt the preferences of the destination class. Moreover, we have found only limited evidence supporting the acculturation hypothesis and not support for the status maximization hypothesis. Furthermore, the effect of social origin varies largely between countries. In a second step of the analysis we investigate what are the national factors explaining this variation. The empirical evidence we present leads to conclude that high rates of upward social mobility sharply reduce the effect of social origin on preferences for redistribution