Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

Interfaces in the acquisition of syntax

We introduce empirical work on Romance language acquisition with respect to the interfaces of syntax with other modules of grammar (internal interfaces) and other domains of cognition (external interfaces). We do so by choosing specific phenomena within the following interfaces: syntax-morphology, syntax-semantics and syn-tax-pragmatics. In the domain of syntax-morphology we focus on grammatical gender, with respect to the syntax-semantics interface we focus on adjectival placement (pre- and post-nominal) and with regard to the syntax-discourse/pragmatics interface we review work on the null/overt subject distribution. Finally, we summarize research on articles, suggesting that articles represent a multiple interface. We provide examples from different types of learners and across the four major Romance languages French, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish. While our central goal is to summarize and generalize across major findings, we will also point to potential problems concerning the interface approach, e.g. the association of particular phenomena with a specific interface and the assumption that internal interfaces are less problematic than external ones.

Processing coordinate subject-verb agreement in L1 and L2 Greek

The present study examines the processing of subject-verb (SV) number agreement with coordinate subjects in pre-verbal and post-verbal positions in Greek. Greek is a language with morphological number marked on nominal and verbal elements. Coordinate SV agreement, however, is special in Greek as it is sensitive to the coordinate subject's position: when pre-verbal, the verb is marked for plural while when post-verbal the verb can be in the singular. We conducted two experiments, an acceptability judgment task with adult monolinguals as a pre-study (Experiment 1) and a self-paced reading task as the main study (Experiment 2) in order to obtain acceptance as well as processing data. Forty adult monolingual speakers of Greek participated in Experiment 1 and a hundred and forty one in Experiment 2. Seventy one children participated in Experiment 2: 30 Albanian-Greek sequential bilingual children and 41 Greek monolingual children aged 10–12 years. The adult data in Experiment 1 establish the difference in acceptability between singular VPs in SV and VS constructions reaffirming our hypothesis. Meanwhile, the adult data in Experiment 2 show that plural verbs accelerate processing regardless of subject position. The child online data show that sequential bilingual children have longer reading times (RTs) compared to the age-matched monolingual control group. However, both child groups follow a similar processing pattern in both pre-verbal and post-verbal constructions showing longer RTs immediately after a singular verb when the subject was pre-verbal indicating a grammaticality effect. In the post-verbal coordinate subject sentences, both child groups showed longer RTs on the first subject following the plural verb due to the temporary number mismatch between the verb and the first subject. This effect was resolved in monolingual children but was still present at the end of the sentence for bilingual children indicating difficulties to reanalyze and integrate information. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that (a) 10–12 year-old sequential bilingual children are sensitive to number agreement in SV coordinate constructions parsing sentences in the same way as monolingual children even though their vocabulary abilities are lower than that of age-matched monolingual peers and (b) bilinguals are slower in processing overall.

On the Relationship between Zaprionus spinipilus Chassagnard & McEvey and Z. vittiger Coquillett, the Type Species of the Genus Zaprionus (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Zaprionus vittiger Coquillett is the type species of the genus Zaprionus Coquillett. However, the species is only known from five old museum specimens collected from South Africa and Malawi. It has often been confused with many other Zaprionus species, especially with Z. spinipilus Chassagnard & McEvey, a widespread species in Africa known from Madagascar, Malawi, Ethiopia and Cameroon. We have recently collected flies from the type localities of both species (South Africa and Madagascar, respectively). This has prompted us to test the taxonomic boundaries of these two nominal species using molecular (the mitochondrial COII and the nuclear Amyrel genes), chromosomal, morphological (internal and external genitalia), and reproductive isolation analyses. The results suggest Z. spinipilus to be a junior synonym to Z. vittiger.

The invasive hydromedusae Blackfordia virginica Mayer, 1910 (Cnidaria: Blackfordiidae) in southern Brazil, with comments on taxonomy and distribution of the genus Blackfordia

The invasive brackish-water hydrozoan Blackfordia virginica is reported from estuaries and harbours in southeastern and southern Brazil. Medusae of the species were collected for the first time in Cananeia, Guaratuba Bay, and Babitonga Bay. They were also found in Paranagua Bay where they were previously known to occur. Based on material examined here, a comparative redescription is given of B. virginica, and its distribution worldwide is reviewed. The three nominal species of Blackfordia are assessed.

Systematics and phylogeny of Cristacoxidae (Copepoda, Harpacticoida): a review

Both sexes of a new species of Noodtorthopsyllus Lang, 1965 (Harpacticoida, Cristacoxidae) from a sandy beach in Sao Paulo State (Brazil) are described using light and scanning electron microscopy. Noodtorthopsyllus tageae sp. nov. displays a mosaic of characters drawn from both Noodtorthopsyllus and Cristacoxa Huys, 1990, blurring the boundaries between both genera. Consequently, Cristacoxa, the type genus of the nominal family-group taxon Cristacoxidae Huys, 1990, is relegated to a junior subjective synonym of Noodtorthopsyllus, and its type species is transferred to the latter as N. petkovskii (Huys, 1990) comb. nov. A new genus Acuticoxa is proposed to accommodate A. ubatubaensis sp. nov. (type species), collected on the northern continental shelf of Sao Paulo State, and A. biarticulata sp. nov., previously identified as Laophontisochra sp., from the Northern Magellan Straits. Amended diagnoses are provided for Noodtorthopsyllus and Laophontisochra. Autapomorphies supporting the monophyly of the Cristacoxidae are re-evaluated, including new data on P3 endopod sexual dimorphism and caudal ramus development. It is concluded that a recently published hypothesis of a deeply rooted split of the family into two highly divergent lineages cannot be supported. Consequently, both Laophontisochra and Acuticoxa gen. nov. are removed from the Cristacoxidae and tentatively assigned to the Nannopodidae (ex Huntemanniidae), forming a clade with three other genera displaying coxal modifications on leg 1 (Rosacletodes Wells, 1985; Huntemannia Poppe, 1884; and an as yet undescribed genus from Brazil). Based on the sexual dimorphism of the P4 endopod, we propose to transfer Metahuntemannia Smirnov, 1946 and Pottekia Huys, 2009 from the Nannopodidae to the Canthocamptidae (subfamily Hemimesochrinae) where they are probably most closely related to Psammocamptus Mielke, 1975; Bathycamptus Huys & Thistle, 1989; Perucamptus Huys & Thistle, 1989; and Isthmiocaris George & Schminke, 2003. An identification key to the genera of the Nannopodidae is presented.

Hypotheses Testing on a Multivariate Null Intercept Errors-in-Variables Model

Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.

Ni-Zn-Sm nanopowder ferrites: Morphological aspects and magnetic properties

Ni-Zn ferrites have been widely used in components for high-frequency range applications due to their high electrical resistivity, mechanical strength and chemical stability. Ni-Zn ferrite nanopowders doped with samarium with a nominal composition of Ni0.5Zn0.5Fe2-xSmxO4 (x = 0.0, 0.05, and 0.1 mol) were obtained by combustion synthesis using nitrates and urea as fuel. The morphological aspects of Ni-Zn-Sm ferrite nanopowders were investigated by X-ray diffraction, nitrogen adsorption by BET, sedimentation, scanning electron microscopy and magnetic properties. The results indicated that the Ni-Zn-Sm ferrite nanopowders were composed of soft agglomerates of nanoparticles with a high surface area (55.8-64.8 m(2)/g), smaller particles (18-20 nm) and nanocrystallite size particles. The addition of samarium resulted in a reduction of all the magnetic parameters evaluated, namely saturation magnetization (24-40 emu/g), remanent magnetization (2.2-3.5 emu/g) and coercive force (99.3-83.3 Oe). (c) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic interaction in exchange-biased bilayers: a first-order reversal curve analysis

The distributions of coercivities and magnetic interactions in a set of polycrystalline Ni(0.8)Fe(0.2)/FeMn bilayers have been determined using the first-order reversal curve (FORC) formalism. The thickness of the permalloy (Py) film was fixed at 10 nm (nominal), while that of the FeMn film varied within the range 0-20 nm. The FORC diagrams of each bilayer displayed two clearly distinguishable regions. The main region was generated by Py particles whose coercivities were enhanced in comparison with those in which the FeMn film was absent (sample O). The minor region was produced by Py particles with coercivities similar to or slightly higher than those of particles in the Py film of sample O. Each sample presented two distributions of interaction fields, one for each region, and both were centred slightly below the exchange-bias field, thus indicating a prevalence of magnetizing interactions. These results are consistent with a grain size distribution in the Py layer and the presence of uncompensated antiferromagnetic moments.

Growth of EuTe islands on SnTe by molecular beam epitaxy

Semiconductor magnetic quantum dots are very promising structures, with novel properties that find multiple applications in spintronic devices. EuTe is a wide gap semiconductor with NaCl structure, and strong magnetic moments S=7/2 at the half filled 4f(7) electronic levels. On the other hand, SnTe is a narrow gap semiconductor with the same crystal structure and 4% lattice mismatch with EuTe. In this work, we investigate the molecular beam epitaxial growth of EuTe on SnTe after the critical thickness for island formation is surpassed, as a previous step to the growth of organized magnetic quantum dots. The topology and strain state of EuTe islands were studied as a function of growth temperature and EuTe nominal layer thickness. Reflection high energy electron diffraction (RHEED) was used in-situ to monitor surface morphology and strain state. RHEED results were complemented and enriched with atomic force microscopy and grazing incidence X-ray diffraction measurements made at the XRD2 beamline of the Brazilian Synchrotron. EuTe islands of increasing height and diameter are obtained when the EuTe nominal thickness increases, with higher aspect ratio for the islands grown at lower temperatures. As the islands grow, a relaxation toward the EuTe bulk lattice parameter was observed. The relaxation process was partially reverted by the growth of the SnTe cap layer, vital to protect the EuTe islands from oxidation. A simple model is outlined to describe the distortions caused by the EuTe islands on the SnTe buffer and cap layers. The SnTe cap layers formed interesting plateau structures with easily controlled wall height, that could find applications as a template for future nanostructures growth. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

First-order-reversal-curve analysis of Pr-Fe-B-based exchange spring magnets

Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H (c) = 12.5 kOe and (BH)(max) = 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains (diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The microstructure is discussed in terms of a calculation by Skomski and Coey. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a poorly coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the poorly coupled sample and for the well-coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests magnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure.

First-order-reversal-curve analysis of Pr-Fe-B-based nanocomposites

Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H(c)=12.5 kOe and (BH)(max)= 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed that the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains(diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a partially-coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the partially-coupled sample and for the well coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests demagnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microstructural, structural and dielectric properties of Er(3+)-modified BaTi(0.85)Zr(0.15)O(3) ceramics

The (micro)structural and electrical properties of undoped and Er(3+)-doped BaTi(0.85)Zr(0.15)O(3) ceramics were studied in this work for both nominal Ba(2+) and Ti(4+) substitution formulations. The ceramics were produced from solid-state reaction and sintered at 1400 degrees C for 3 h. For those materials prepared following the donor-type nominal Ba(1-x)Er(x)(Ti(0.85)Zr(0.15))O(3) composition, especially, Er(3+) however showed a preferential substitution for the (Ti,Zr)(4+) lattice sites. This allowed synthesis of a finally acceptor-like, highly resistive Ba(Ti,Zr,Er)O(3-delta)-like system, with a solubility limit below but close to 3 cat.% Er(3+). The overall phase development is discussed in terms of the amphoteric nature of Er(3+), and appears to mainly or, at least, partially also involve a minimization of stress effects from the ion size mismatch between the dopant and host cations. Further results presented here include a comparative analysis of the behavior of the materials` grain size, electrical properties and nature of the ferroelectric-to-paraelectric phase transition upon variation of the formulation and Er(3+) content. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthesis optimization, structural evolution and optical properties of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) nanopowders obtained by soft chemistry methods

This paper describes the structural evolution of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) nanopowders using two soft chemistry routes, the sol-gel and the polymeric precursor methods. Differential scanning calorimetry, differential thermal analyses, thermogravimetric analyses, X-ray diffraction, Fourier-transform infrared, and Raman spectroscopy techniques have been used to study the chemical reactions between 700 and 1200 degrees C temperature range. From both methods the Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) (Er:YAB) solid solution was obtained almost pure when the powdered samples were heat treated at 1150 degrees C. Based on the results, a schematic phase formation diagram of Er:YAB crystalline solid solution was proposed for powders from each method. The Er:YAB solid solution could be optimized by adding a small amount of boron oxide in excess to the Er:YAB nominal composition. The nanoparticles are obtained around 210 nm. Photoluminescence emission spectrum of the Er:YAB nanocrystalline powders was measured on the infrared region and the Stark components of the (4)I(13/2) and (4)I(15/2) levels were determined. Finally, for the first time the Raman spectrum of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) crystalline phase is also presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.