Variations of surface boundary layer parameters associated with Cyclone Gonu over the Arabian Sea using QuikSCAT data

This study attempted to quantify the variations of the surface marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) parameters associated with the tropical Cyclone Gonu formed over the Arabian Sea during 30 May–7 June 2007 (just after the monsoon onset). These characteristics were evaluated in terms of surface wind, drag coefficient, wind stress, horizontal divergence, and frictional velocity using 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ resolution Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The variation of these different surface boundary layer parameters was studied for three defined cyclone life stages: prior to the formation, during, and after the cyclone passage. Drastic variations of the MABL parameters during the passage of the cyclone were observed. The wind strength increased from 12 to 22 m s−1 in association with different stages of Gonu. Frictional velocity increased from a value of 0.1–0.6 m s−1 during the formative stage of the system to a high value of 0.3–1.4 m s−1 during the mature stage. Drag coefficient varied from 1.5 × 10−3 to 2.5 × 10−3 during the occurrence of Gonu. Wind stress values varied from 0.4 to 1.1 N m−2. Wind stress curl values varied from 10 × 10−7 to 45 × 10−7 N m−3. Generally, convergent winds prevailed with the numerical value of divergence varying from 0 to –4 × 10−5 s−1. Maximum variations of the wind parameters were found in the wall cloud region of the cyclone. The parameters returned to normally observed values in 1–3 days after the cyclone passage

Anomaly Detection Using System Call Sequence Sets.

This paper discusses our research in developing a generalized and systematic method for anomaly detection. The key ideas are to represent normal program behaviour using system call frequencies and to incorporate probabilistic techniques for classification to detect anomalies and intrusions. Using experiments on the sendmail system call data, we demonstrate that concise and accurate classifiers can be constructed to detect anomalies. An overview of the approach that we have implemented is provided.

Code clones in program test sequence identification

Code clones are portions of source code which are similar to the original program code. The presence of code clones is considered as a bad feature of software as the maintenance of software becomes difficult due to the presence of code clones. Methods for code clone detection have gained immense significance in the last few years as they play a significant role in engineering applications such as analysis of program code, program understanding, plagiarism detection, error detection, code compaction and many more similar tasks. Despite of all these facts, several features of code clones if properly utilized can make software development process easier. In this work, we have pointed out such a feature of code clones which highlight the relevance of code clones in test sequence identification. Here program slicing is used in code clone detection. In addition, a classification of code clones is presented and the benefit of using program slicing in code clone detection is also mentioned in this work.

DNA Sequence Representation methods

DNA sequence representation methods are used to denote a gene structure effectively and help in similarities/dissimilarities analysis of coding sequences. Many different kinds of representations have been proposed in the literature. They can be broadly classified into Numerical, Graphical, Geometrical and Hybrid representation methods. DNA structure and function analysis are made easy with graphical and geometrical representation methods since it gives visual representation of a DNA structure. In numerical method, numerical values are assigned to a sequence and digital signal processing methods are used to analyze the sequence. Hybrid approaches are also reported in the literature to analyze DNA sequences. This paper reviews the latest developments in DNA Sequence representation methods. We also present a taxonomy of various methods. A comparison of these methods where ever possible is also done

Genetic algorithm based indicator sequence method for exon prediction

Considerable research effort has been devoted in predicting the exon regions of genes. The binary indicator (BI), Electron ion interaction pseudo potential (EIIP), Filter method are some of the methods. All these methods make use of the period three behavior of the exon region. Even though the method suggested in this paper is similar to above mentioned methods , it introduces a set of sequences for mapping the nucleotides selected by applying genetic algorithm and found to be more promising

Characterization and Pathogenicity of Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio vulnificus from Marine environments

The genus Vibrioof the family Vibrionaceae are Gram negative, oxidasepositive, rod- or curved- rodshaped facultative anaerobes, widespread in marine and estuarine environments. Vibrio species are opportunistic human pathogens responsible for diarrhoeal disease, gastroenteritis, septicaemia and wound infections and are also pathogens of aquatic organisms, causing infections to crustaceans, bivalves and fishes. In the present study, marine environmental samples like seafood and water and sediment samples from aquafarms and mangroves were screened for the presence of Vibrio species. Of the134 isolates obtained from the various samples, 45 were segregated to the genus Vibrio on the basis of phenotypic characterization.like Gram staining, oxidase test, MoF test and salinity tolerance. Partial 16S rDNA sequence analysis was utilized for species level identification of the isolates and the strains were identified as V. cholerae(N=21), V. vulnificus(N=18), V. parahaemolyticus(N=3), V. alginolyticus (N=2) and V. azureus (N=1). The genetic relatedness and variations among the 45 Vibrio isolates were elucidated based on 16S rDNA sequences. Phenotypic characterization of the isolates was based on their response to 12 biochemical tests namely Voges-Proskauers’s (VP test), arginine dihydrolase , tolerance to 3% NaCl test, ONPG test that detects β-galactosidase activity, and tests for utilization of citrate, ornithine, mannitol, arabinose, sucrose, glucose, salicin and cellobiose. The isolates exhibited diverse biochemical patterns, some specific for the species and others indicative of their environmental source.Antibiogram for the isolates was determined subsequent to testing their susceptibility to 12 antibiotics by the disc diffusion method. Varying degrees of resistance to gentamycin (2.22%), ampicillin(62.22%), nalidixic acid (4.44%), vancomycin (86.66), cefixime (17.77%), rifampicin (20%), tetracycline (42.22%) and chloramphenicol (2.22%) was exhibited. All the isolates were susceptible to streptomycin, co-trimoxazole, trimethoprim and azithromycin. Isolates from all the three marine environments exhibited multiple antibiotic resistance, with high MAR index value. The molecular typing methods such as ERIC PCR and BOX PCR revealed intraspecies relatedness and genetic heterogeneity within the environmental isolatesof V. cholerae and V. vulnificus. The 21 strains of V. choleraewere serogroupedas non O1/ non O139 by screening for the presence O1rfb and O139 rfb marker genes by PCR. The virulence/virulence associated genes namely ctxA, ctxB, ace, VPI, hlyA, ompU, rtxA, toxR, zot, nagst, tcpA, nin and nanwere screened in V. cholerae and V. vulnificusstrains.The V. vulnificusstrains were also screened for three species specific genes viz., cps, vvhand viu. In V. cholerae strains, the virulence associated genes like VPI, hlyA, rtxA, ompU and toxR were confirmed by PCR. All the isolates, except for strain BTOS6, harbored at least one or a combination of the tested genes and V. choleraestrain BTPR5 isolated from prawn hosted the highest number of virulence associated genes. Among the V. vulnificusstrains, only 3 virulence genes, VPI, toxR and cps, were confirmed out of the 16 tested and only 7 of the isolates had these genes in one or more combinations. Strain BTPS6 from aquafarm and strain BTVE4 from mangrove samples yielded positive amplification for the three genes. The toxRgene from 9 strains of V. choleraeand 3 strains of V. vulnificus were cloned and sequenced for phylogenetic analysis based on nucleotide and the amino acid sequences. Multiple sequence alignment of the nucleotide sequences and amino acid sequences of the environmental strains of V. choleraerevealed that the toxRgene in the environmental strains are 100% homologous to themselves and to the V. choleraetoxR gene sequence available in the Genbank database. The 3 strains of V. vulnificus displayed high nucleotide and amino acid sequence similarity among themselves and to the sequences of V. cholerae and V. harveyi obtained from the GenBank database, but exhibited only 72% homology to the sequences of its close relative V. vulnificus. Structure prediction of the ToxR protein of Vibrio cholerae strain BTMA5 was by PHYRE2 software. The deduced amino acid sequence showed maximum resemblance with the structure of DNA-binding domain of response regulator2 from Escherichia coli k-12 Template based homology modelling in PHYRE2 successfully modelled the predicted protein and its secondary structure based on protein data bank (PDB) template c3zq7A. The pathogenicity studies were performed using the nematode Caenorhabditiselegansas a model system. The assessment of pathogenicity of environmental strain of V. choleraewas conducted with E. coli strain OP50 as the food source in control plates, environmental V. cholerae strain BTOS6, negative for all tested virulence genes, to check for the suitability of Vibrio sp. as a food source for the nematode;V. cholerae Co 366 ElTor, a clinical pathogenic strain and V. cholerae strain BTPR5 from seafood (Prawn) and positive for the tested virulence genes like VPI, hlyA, ompU,rtxA and toxR. It was found that V. cholerae strain BTOS6 could serve as a food source in place of E. coli strain OP50 but behavioral aberrations like sluggish movement and lawn avoidance and morphological abnormalities like pharyngeal and intestinal distensions and bagging were exhibited by the worms fed on V. cholerae Co 366 ElTor strain and environmental BTPR5 indicating their pathogenicity to the nematode. Assessment of pathogenicity of the environmental strains of V. vulnificus was performed with V. vulnificus strain BTPS6 which tested positive for 3 virulence genes, namely, cps, toxRand VPI, and V. vulnificus strain BTMM7 that did not possess any of the tested virulence genes. A reduction was observed in the life span of worms fed on environmental strain of V. vulnificusBTMM7 rather than on the ordinary laboratory food source, E. coli OP50. Behavioral abnormalities like sluggish movement, lawn avoidance and bagging were also observed in the worms fed with strain BTPS6, but the pharynx and the intestine were intact. The presence of multi drug resistant environmental Vibrio strainsthat constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes are to be dealt with caution as they play a decisive role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer in the marine environments.

Study on period search methods of variable stars: Application to ASAS and CRTS databases

Study on variable stars is an important topic of modern astrophysics. After the invention of powerful telescopes and high resolving powered CCD’s, the variable star data is accumulating in the order of peta-bytes. The huge amount of data need lot of automated methods as well as human experts. This thesis is devoted to the data analysis on variable star’s astronomical time series data and hence belong to the inter-disciplinary topic, Astrostatistics. For an observer on earth, stars that have a change in apparent brightness over time are called variable stars. The variation in brightness may be regular (periodic), quasi periodic (semi-periodic) or irregular manner (aperiodic) and are caused by various reasons. In some cases, the variation is due to some internal thermo-nuclear processes, which are generally known as intrinsic vari- ables and in some other cases, it is due to some external processes, like eclipse or rotation, which are known as extrinsic variables. Intrinsic variables can be further grouped into pulsating variables, eruptive variables and flare stars. Extrinsic variables are grouped into eclipsing binary stars and chromospheri- cal stars. Pulsating variables can again classified into Cepheid, RR Lyrae, RV Tauri, Delta Scuti, Mira etc. The eruptive or cataclysmic variables are novae, supernovae, etc., which rarely occurs and are not periodic phenomena. Most of the other variations are periodic in nature. Variable stars can be observed through many ways such as photometry, spectrophotometry and spectroscopy. The sequence of photometric observa- xiv tions on variable stars produces time series data, which contains time, magni- tude and error. The plot between variable star’s apparent magnitude and time are known as light curve. If the time series data is folded on a period, the plot between apparent magnitude and phase is known as phased light curve. The unique shape of phased light curve is a characteristic of each type of variable star. One way to identify the type of variable star and to classify them is by visually looking at the phased light curve by an expert. For last several years, automated algorithms are used to classify a group of variable stars, with the help of computers. Research on variable stars can be divided into different stages like observa- tion, data reduction, data analysis, modeling and classification. The modeling on variable stars helps to determine the short-term and long-term behaviour and to construct theoretical models (for eg:- Wilson-Devinney model for eclips- ing binaries) and to derive stellar properties like mass, radius, luminosity, tem- perature, internal and external structure, chemical composition and evolution. The classification requires the determination of the basic parameters like pe- riod, amplitude and phase and also some other derived parameters. Out of these, period is the most important parameter since the wrong periods can lead to sparse light curves and misleading information. Time series analysis is a method of applying mathematical and statistical tests to data, to quantify the variation, understand the nature of time-varying phenomena, to gain physical understanding of the system and to predict future behavior of the system. Astronomical time series usually suffer from unevenly spaced time instants, varying error conditions and possibility of big gaps. This is due to daily varying daylight and the weather conditions for ground based observations and observations from space may suffer from the impact of cosmic ray particles. Many large scale astronomical surveys such as MACHO, OGLE, EROS, xv ROTSE, PLANET, Hipparcos, MISAO, NSVS, ASAS, Pan-STARRS, Ke- pler,ESA, Gaia, LSST, CRTS provide variable star’s time series data, even though their primary intention is not variable star observation. Center for Astrostatistics, Pennsylvania State University is established to help the astro- nomical community with the aid of statistical tools for harvesting and analysing archival data. Most of these surveys releases the data to the public for further analysis. There exist many period search algorithms through astronomical time se- ries analysis, which can be classified into parametric (assume some underlying distribution for data) and non-parametric (do not assume any statistical model like Gaussian etc.,) methods. Many of the parametric methods are based on variations of discrete Fourier transforms like Generalised Lomb-Scargle peri- odogram (GLSP) by Zechmeister(2009), Significant Spectrum (SigSpec) by Reegen(2007) etc. Non-parametric methods include Phase Dispersion Minimi- sation (PDM) by Stellingwerf(1978) and Cubic spline method by Akerlof(1994) etc. Even though most of the methods can be brought under automation, any of the method stated above could not fully recover the true periods. The wrong detection of period can be due to several reasons such as power leakage to other frequencies which is due to finite total interval, finite sampling interval and finite amount of data. Another problem is aliasing, which is due to the influence of regular sampling. Also spurious periods appear due to long gaps and power flow to harmonic frequencies is an inherent problem of Fourier methods. Hence obtaining the exact period of variable star from it’s time series data is still a difficult problem, in case of huge databases, when subjected to automation. As Matthew Templeton, AAVSO, states “Variable star data analysis is not always straightforward; large-scale, automated analysis design is non-trivial”. Derekas et al. 2007, Deb et.al. 2010 states “The processing of xvi huge amount of data in these databases is quite challenging, even when looking at seemingly small issues such as period determination and classification”. It will be beneficial for the variable star astronomical community, if basic parameters, such as period, amplitude and phase are obtained more accurately, when huge time series databases are subjected to automation. In the present thesis work, the theories of four popular period search methods are studied, the strength and weakness of these methods are evaluated by applying it on two survey databases and finally a modified form of cubic spline method is intro- duced to confirm the exact period of variable star. For the classification of new variable stars discovered and entering them in the “General Catalogue of Vari- able Stars” or other databases like “Variable Star Index“, the characteristics of the variability has to be quantified in term of variable star parameters.

Sedimentology and Geochemistry of core sediments from the Ashtamudi estuary and the adjoining coastal plain,central Kerala,India

The evolution of coast through geological time scale is dependent on the transgression-regression event subsequent to the rise or fall of sea level. This event is accounted by investigation of the vertical sediment deposition patterns and their interrelationship for paleo-enviornmental reconstruction. Different methods like sedimentological (grain size and micro-morphological) and geochemical (elemental relationship) analyses as well as radiocarbon dating are generally used to decipher the sea level changes and paleoclimatic conditions of the Quaternary sediment sequence. For the Indian coast with a coastline length of about 7500 km, studies on geological and geomorphological signatures of sea level changes during the Quaternary were reported in general by researchers during the last two decades. However, for the southwest coast of India particularily Kerala which is famous for its coastal landforms comprising of estuaries, lagoons, backwaters, coastal plains, cliffs and barrier beaches, studies pertaining to the marine transgression-regression events in the southern region are limited. The Neendakara-Kayamkulam coastal stretch in central Kerala where the coast is manifested with shore parallel Kayamkulam Lagoon on one side and shore perpendicular Ashtamudi Estuary on the other side indicating existence of an uplifted prograded coastal margin followed by barrier beaches, backwater channels, ridge and runnel topography is an ideal site for studying such events. Hence the present study has been taken up in this context to address the gap area. The location for collection of core samples representing coastal plain, estuarylagoon and offshore regions have been identified based on published literature and available sedimentary records. The objectives of the research work are:  To study the lithological variations and depositional environments of sediment cores along the coastal plain, estuary-lagoon and offshore regions between Kollam and Kayamkulam in the central Kerala coast  To study the transportation and diagenetic history of sediments in the area  To investigate the geochemical characterization of sediments and to elucidate the source-sink relationship  To understand the marine transgression-regression events and to propose a conceptual model for the region The thesis comprises of 8 chapters. The first chapter embodies the preamble for the selection and significance of this research work. The study area is introduced with details on its physiographical, geological, geomorphological, rainfall and climate information. A review of literature, compiling the research on different aspects such as physico-chemical, geomorphological, tectonics, transgression-regression events are presented in the second chapter and they are broadly classified into three viz:- International, National and Kerala. The field data collection and laboratory analyses adopted in the research work are discussed in the third chapter. For collection of sediment core samples from the coastal plains, rotary drilling method was employed whereas for the estuary-lagoon and offshore locations the gravity/piston corer method was adopted. The collected subsurficial samples were analysed for texture, surface micro-texture, elemental analysis, XRD and radiocarbon dating techniques for age determination. The fourth chapter deals with the textural analysis of the core samples collected from various predefined locations of the study area. The result reveals that the Ashtamudi Estuary is composed of silty clay to clayey type of sediments whereas offshore cores are carpeted with silty clay to relict sand. Investigation of the source of sediments deposited in the coastal plain located on either side of the estuary indicates the dominance of terrigenous to marine origin in the southern region whereas it is predominantly of marine origin towards the north. Further the hydrodynamic conditions as well as the depositional enviornment of the sediment cores are elucidated based on statistical parameters that decipher the deposition pattern at various locations viz., coastal plain (open to closed basin), Ashtamudi Estuary (partially open to restricted estuary to closed basin) and offshore (open channel). The intensity of clay minerals is also discussed. From the results of radiocarbon dating the sediment depositional environments were deciphered.The results of the microtextural study of sediment samples (quartz grains) using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) are presented in the fifth chapter. These results throw light on the processes of transport and diagenetic history of the detrital sediments. Based on the lithological variations, selected quartz grains of different environments were also analysed. The study indicates that the southern coastal plain sediments were transported and deposited mechanically under fluvial environment followed by diagenesis under prolonged marine incursion. But in the case of the northern coastal plain, the sediments were transported and deposited under littoral environment indicating the dominance of marine incursion through mechanical as well as chemical processes. The quartz grains of the Ashtamudi Estuary indicate fluvial origin. The surface texture features of the offshore sediments suggest that the quartz grains are of littoral origin and represent the relict beach deposits. The geochemical characterisation of sediment cores based on geochemical classification, sediment maturity, palaeo-weathering and provenance in different environments are discussed in the sixth chapter. In the seventh chapter the integration of multiproxies data along with radiocarbon dates are presented and finally evolution and depositional history based on transgression–regression events is deciphered. The eighth chapter summarizes the major findings and conclusions of the study with recommendation for future work.

Entwicklung eines Windleistungprognosemodells zur Verbesserung der Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung

Die Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Windenergie in Deutschland haben wichtige Anstöße zur technologischen Weiterentwicklung geliefert und die Grundlagen für den enormen Anlagenzubau geschaffen. Die installierte Windleistung hat heute eine beachtliche Größenordnung erreicht und ein weiteres Wachstum in ähnlichen Dimensionen ist auch für die nächsten Jahre zu erwarten. Die aus Wind erzeugte elektrische Leistung deckt bereits heute in einigen Netzbereichen die Netzlast zu Schwachlastzeiten. Dies zeigt, dass die Windenergie ein nicht mehr zu vernachlässigender Faktor in der elektrischen Energieversorgung geworden ist. Im Rahmen der Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung sind Betrag und Verlauf der Windleistung des folgenden Tages mittlerweile zu wichtigen und zugleich schwierig zu bestimmenden Variablen geworden. Starke Schwankungen und falsche Prognosen der Windstromeinspeisung verursachen zusätzlichen Bedarf an Regel- und Ausgleichsleistung durch die Systemführung. Das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelte Prognosemodell liefert die zu erwartenden Windleistungen an 16 repräsentativen Windparks bzw. Gruppen von Windparks für bis zu 48 Stunden im Voraus. Aufgrund von prognostizierten Wetterdaten des deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) werden die Leistungen der einzelnen Windparks mit Hilfe von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen (KNN) berechnet. Diese Methode hat gegenüber physikalischen Verfahren den Vorteil, dass der komplexe Zusammenhang zwischen Wettergeschehen und Windparkleistung nicht aufwendig analysiert und detailliert mathematisch beschrieben werden muss, sondern anhand von Daten aus der Vergangenheit von den KNN gelernt wird. Das Prognosemodell besteht aus zwei Modulen. Mit dem ersten wird, basierend auf den meteorologischen Vorhersagen des DWD, eine Prognose für den Folgetag erstellt. Das zweite Modul bezieht die online gemessenen Leistungsdaten der repräsentativen Windparks mit ein, um die ursprüngliche Folgetagsprognose zu verbessern und eine sehr genaue Kurzzeitprognose für die nächsten drei bis sechs Stunden zu berechnen. Mit den Ergebnissen der Prognosemodule für die repräsentativen Standorte wird dann über ein Transformationsmodell, dem so genannten Online-Modell, die Gesamteinspeisung in einem größeren Gebiet berechnet. Das Prognoseverfahren hat seine besonderen Vorzüge in der Genauigkeit, den geringen Rechenzeiten und den niedrigen Betriebskosten, da durch die Verwendung des bereits implementierten Online-Modells nur eine geringe Anzahl von Vorhersage- und Messstandorten benötigt wird. Das hier vorgestellte Prognosemodell wurde ursprünglich für die E.ON-Netz GmbH entwickelt und optimiert und ist dort seit Juli 2001 im Einsatz. Es lässt sich jedoch auch leicht an andere Gebiete anpassen. Benötigt werden dazu nur die Messdaten der Leistung ausgewählter repräsentativer Windparks sowie die dazu gehörenden Wettervorhersagen, um die KNN entsprechend zu trainieren.

Ground state correlation energy of the Be-sequence for Z = 4-20 in MCDF approximation

The ground state (J = 0) electronic correlation energy of the 4-electron Be-sequence is calculated in the Multi-Configuration Dirac-Fock approximation for Z = 4-20. The 4 electrons were distributed over the configurations arising from the 1s, 2s, 2p, 3s, 3p and 3d orbitals. Theoretical values obtained here are in good agreement with experimental correlation energies.

Protein Folding Simulations: Confinement, External Fields and Sequence Design

The present Thesis looks at the problem of protein folding using Monte Carlo and Langevin simulations, three topics in protein folding have been studied: 1) the effect of confining potential barriers, 2) the effect of a static external field and 3) the design of amino acid sequences which fold in a short time and which have a stable native state (global minimum). Regarding the first topic, we studied the confinement of a small protein of 16 amino acids known as 1NJ0 (PDB code) which has a beta-sheet structure as a native state. The confinement of proteins occurs frequently in the cell environment. Some molecules called Chaperones, present in the cytoplasm, capture the unfolded proteins in their interior and avoid the formation of aggregates and misfolded proteins. This mechanism of confinement mediated by Chaperones is not yet well understood. In the present work we considered two kinds of potential barriers which try to mimic the confinement induced by a Chaperon molecule. The first kind of potential was a purely repulsive barrier whose only effect is to create a cavity where the protein folds up correctly. The second kind of potential was a barrier which includes both attractive and repulsive effects. We performed Wang-Landau simulations to calculate the thermodynamical properties of 1NJ0. From the free energy landscape plot we found that 1NJ0 has two intermediate states in the bulk (without confinement) which are clearly separated from the native and the unfolded states. For the case of the purely repulsive barrier we found that the intermediate states get closer to each other in the free energy landscape plot and eventually they collapse into a single intermediate state. The unfolded state is more compact, compared to that in the bulk, as the size of the barrier decreases. For an attractive barrier modifications of the states (native, unfolded and intermediates) are observed depending on the degree of attraction between the protein and the walls of the barrier. The strength of the attraction is measured by the parameter $\epsilon$. A purely repulsive barrier is obtained for $\epsilon=0$ and a purely attractive barrier for $\epsilon=1$. The states are changed slightly for magnitudes of the attraction up to $\epsilon=0.4$. The disappearance of the intermediate states of 1NJ0 is already observed for $\epsilon =0.6$. A very high attractive barrier ($\epsilon \sim 1.0$) produces a completely denatured state. In the second topic of this Thesis we dealt with the interaction of a protein with an external electric field. We demonstrated by means of computer simulations, specifically by using the Wang-Landau algorithm, that the folded, unfolded, and intermediate states can be modified by means of a field. We have found that an external field can induce several modifications in the thermodynamics of these states: for relatively low magnitudes of the field ($<2.06 \times 10^8$ V/m) no major changes in the states are observed. However, for higher magnitudes than ($6.19 \times 10^8$ V/m) one observes the appearance of a new native state which exhibits a helix-like structure. In contrast, the original native state is a $\beta$-sheet structure. In the new native state all the dipoles in the backbone structure are aligned parallel to the field. The design of amino acid sequences constitutes the third topic of the present work. We have tested the Rate of Convergence criterion proposed by D. Gridnev and M. Garcia ({\it work unpublished}). We applied it to the study of off-lattice models. The Rate of Convergence criterion is used to decide if a certain sequence will fold up correctly within a relatively short time. Before the present work, the common way to decide if a certain sequence was a good/bad folder was by performing the whole dynamics until the sequence got its native state (if it existed), or by studying the curvature of the potential energy surface. There are some difficulties in the last two approaches. In the first approach, performing the complete dynamics for hundreds of sequences is a rather challenging task because of the CPU time needed. In the second approach, calculating the curvature of the potential energy surface is possible only for very smooth surfaces. The Rate of Convergence criterion seems to avoid the previous difficulties. With this criterion one does not need to perform the complete dynamics to find the good and bad sequences. Also, the criterion does not depend on the kind of force field used and therefore it can be used even for very rugged energy surfaces.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.