Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Multiyear measurements of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers at the Brazil-Malvinas confluence region

This study analyzes and discusses data taken from oceanic and atmospheric measurements performed simultaneously at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This area is one of the most dynamical frontal regions of the world ocean. Data were collected during four research cruises in the region once a year in consecutive years between 2004 and 2007. Very few studies have addressed the importance of studying the air-sea coupling at the BMC region. Lateral temperature gradients at the study region were as high as 0.3 degrees C km(-1) at the surface and subsurface. In the oceanic boundary layer, the vertical temperature gradient reached 0.08 degrees C m(-1) at 500 m depth. Our results show that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) at the BMC region is modulated by the strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients present at the sea surface. The mean MABL structure is thicker over the warmside of the BMC where Brazil Current (BC) waters predominate. The opposite occurs over the coldside of the confluence where waters from the Malvinas (Falkland) Current (MC) are found. The warmside of the confluence presented systematically higher MABL top height compared to the coldside. This type of modulation at the synoptic scale is consistent to what happens in other frontal regions of the world ocean, where the MABL adjusts itself to modifications along the SST gradients. Over warm waters at the BMC region, the MABL static instability and turbulence were increased while winds at the lower portion of the MABL were strong. Over the coldside of the BC/MC front an opposite behavior is found: the MABL is thinner and more stable. Our results suggest that the sea-level pressure (SLP) was also modulated locally, together with static stability vertical mixing mechanism, by the surface condition during all cruises. SST gradients at the BMC region modulate the synoptic atmospheric pressure gradient. Postfrontal and prefrontal conditions produce opposite thermal advections in the MABL that lead to different pressure intensification patterns across the confluence.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Approximations of modal logics: K and beyond

Inspired by the recent work on approximations of classical logic, we present a method that approximates several modal logics in a modular way. Our starting point is the limitation of the n-degree of introspection that is allowed, thus generating modal n-logics. The semantics for n-logics is presented, in which formulas are evaluated with respect to paths, and not possible worlds. A tableau-based proof system is presented, n-SST, and soundness and completeness is shown for the approximation of modal logics K, T, D, S4 and S5. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Investigating The Sources Of Fresh Water Affecting The Hydrological Balance Of Lakes Enriquillo And Azuei (Hispaniola) – Data Analysis

The Enriquillo and Azuei are saltwater lakes located in a closed water basin in the southwestern region of the island of La Hispaniola, these have been experiencing dramatic changes in total lake-surface area coverage during the period 1980-2012. The size of Lake Enriquillo presented a surface area of approximately 276 km2 in 1984, gradually decreasing to 172 km2 in 1996. The surface area of the lake reached its lowest point in the satellite observation record in 2004, at 165 km2. Then the recent growth of the lake began reaching its 1984 size by 2006. Based on surface area measurement for June and July 2013, Lake Enriquillo has a surface area of ~358 km2. Sumatra sizes at both ends of the record are 116 km2 in 1984 and 134 km2in 2013, an overall 15.8% increase in 30 years. Determining the causes of lake surface area changes is of extreme importance due to its environmental, social, and economic impacts. The overall goal of this study is to quantify the changing water balance in these lakes and their catchment area using satellite and ground observations and a regional atmospheric-hydrologic modeling approach. Data analyses of environmental variables in the region reflect a hydrological unbalance of the lakes due to changing regional hydro-climatic conditions. Historical data show precipitation, land surface temperature and humidity, and sea surface temperature (SST), increasing over region during the past decades. Salinity levels have also been decreasing by more than 30% from previously reported baseline levels. Here we present a summary of the historical data obtained, new sensors deployed in the sourrounding sierras and the lakes, and the integrated modeling exercises. As well as the challenges of gathering, storing, sharing, and analyzing this large volumen of data in a remote location from such a diverse number of sources.

Avaliação da contaminação das águas subterrâneas na área de influência da usina de tratamento de resíduos s.a. UTRESA, em Estância Velha (RS)

Este trabalho objetiva avaliar a contaminação das águas subterrâneas em uma área de disposição de resíduos, originados, principalmente, nas indústrias pertencentes ao ramo coureiro-calçadista, a partir da comparação dos resultados das análises físicas e químicas realizadas em amostras de água subterrânea do aquífero freático à jusante da área, com os padrões de potabilidade da água estabelecidos na legislação vigente e com as características das águas subterrâneas do aquífero à montante da área de disposição de resíduos, através da determinação dos seguintes parâmetros: condutividade, SDT, Eh, pH, OD, temperatura, DQO, alcalinidade, turbidez, SST, cloreto, sulfato, nitrato, ferro, manganês, cromo, sódio, magnésio, potássio, cálcio, cádmio, cobre, chumbo, zinco e níquel. Objetiva, também, quantificar os diferentes tipos de resíduos dispostos na área e fornecer subsídios técnicos para o Sistema de Gerenciamento de Resíduos Sólidos Industriais da FEPAM, no que tange ao monitoramento da qualidade das águas subterrâneas em áreas de disposição de resíduos sólidos. A área estudada é a UTRESA - Usina de Tratamento de Resíduos S/A, que abrange 29 ha e está localizada no extremo sudoeste do município de Estância Velha- RS. A metodologia utilizada consistiu das seguintes etapas: quantificação dos resíduos depositados na área, seleção e instalação de nove poços de monitoramento, realização de quatro amostragens das águas subterrâneas, no período compreendido entre junho de 1999 e março de 2000 e tratamento dos dados, com a determinação de índices de qualidade de água subterrânea para cada poço de monitoramento. O monitoramento demonstrou que alguns parâmetros amostrados nos diferentes poços de monitoramento não atenderam os valores recomendados para a potabilidade das águas pelo Ministério da Saúde e pela Organização Mundial da Saúde, bem como apresentaram valores superiores quando comparados ao ponto controle, localizado à montante da área, observando-se o pior índice de qualidade das águas subterrâneas no PM 05, devido a presença de cromo, nitrato, sulfato, cloreto, sódio e SDT.

Evaluation of tear production with modified Schirmer tear test-1 during the neonatal period in cats

Objetivou-se avaliar a produção lacrimal, por meio do teste da lágrima de Schirmer-1 modificado (TLS-1m) em gatos neonatos. Outrossim, estabelecer in vitro a existência de correlação entre o TLS e o TLS-1m. Tiras pa-dronizadas para realização do TLS foram partidas ao meio e após a abertura das pálpebras, a produção lacrimal dos neonatos (n=15) foi aferida em ambos os olhos (TLS-1m), diariamente, até o sétimo e aos 14, 21 e 28 dias. Os animais foram pesados diariamente até os 28 dias de idade. Os resultados foram comparados estatisticamente (p<0,05). Durante os primeiros sete dias de avaliação, a média geral obtida pelo TLS-1m foi de 0,76±0,08 mm/minuto. Não se constatou diferença significativa entre os olhos direito e esquerdo, em nenhum dos períodos avaliados (p=1,00). A produção lacrimal elevou-se significativamente, do 14º até o 28º dia, comparativamente aos primeiros sete dias (p<0,05). Observou-se correlação positiva entre parâmetros de maturidade e a produção lacrimal (p<0,0001). A distância entre as linhas de cada tira foi significativa (p<0,0001). Conclui-se que a produção lacrimal no período neonatal em gatos é bem inferior aos valores de referência descritos para adultos e jovens da mesma espécie. Não é possível extrapolar valores obtidos com o TLS-1 modificado para o TLS-1 padrão.

Remoção de matéria orgânica, de nutrientes e de coliformes no processo anaeróbio em dois estágios (reator compartimentado seguido de reator UASB) para o tratamento de águas residuárias de suinocultura

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Processamento mínimo em goiabas 'Paluma' e 'Pedro Sato': 2. Avaliação química, sensorial e microbiológica

Foram utilizados frutos de goiabeiras das cultivares Pedro Sato e Paluma, provenientes de pomar comercial, no estádio de maturação de vez, correspondente à coloração verde-mate e considerados ótimo para o consumo. Os frutos foram inicialmente imersos em solução de hipoclorito de sódio (150mg de cloro.L-1) por 5 minutos, para desinfecção superficial. Pessoas treinadas, utilizando proteção adequada e equipamentos desinfetados descascaram os frutos, cortaram-nos longitudinalmente ao meio e eliminaram a polpa com as sementes, em ambiente a 12°C. Após enxágüe com água clorada (20mg de cloro.L-1) foram embalados em contentores de tereftalato de polietileno (PET) com tampa. Estas unidades foram armazenadas a 3°C por 10 dias. Foram realizadas análises microbiológicas ao longo do período. Determinaram-se quimicamente os conteúdos de lignina, ácido ascórbico, acidez total titulável, sólidos solúveis totais e porcentagem de solubilização das pectinas, bem como as variáveis sensoriais de textura, sabor e preferência. A textura tornou-se mais frágil e os conteúdos de ácido ascórbico se reduziram, ao longo do período de armazenamento, nos produtos de ambas as cultivares. Durante este período houve aumento no conteúdo de lignina e manutenção dos conteúdos de sólidos solúveis totais (SST), acidez total titulável (ATT) e da relação SST/ATT. O produto da cultivar Pedro Sato apresentou menor perda de textura que o da 'Paluma', sendo considerado pelos provadores como o mais saboroso e, portanto, o mais preferido. Devido aos cuidados higiênicos tomados durante o processamento o produto apresentou baixa contagem microbiana (< 10³ UFC.g-1), em todas as avaliações efetuadas.

Electrical conductivity of soybean seeds after storage in several environments

Membrane integrity, as measured by electrical conductivity (EC), is suggested as an indicator of seed vigor in soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] seeds. This study evaluated the effect of storage time and temperature on EC of six soybean seed lots (two lots each of high, medium and low vigor). All seed lots were adjusted to 120 g kg(-1) seed moisture, sealed in aluminum foil packets and placed in storage at 10 and 20 degreesC or stored unsealed in multi-wall paper bags in warehouse (WH) conditions at Lexington, KY, USA for 486 days. Four of the six seed lots were also stored unsealed at 10 degreesC. All seed lots were sampled at 3-month intervals and evaluated for seed moisture (SMC), standard germination (SG) and vigor [accelerated aging (AA) and EC]. After 91 and 204 days in storage, samples initially stored at 20 degreesC and WH were moved to 10 degreesC and sampled at the same intervals. Seed moisture content for unsealed samples equilibrated at 107 g kg(-1) (+/-9 g kg(-1)) in both the WH and 10 degreesC environments. No change in SG occurred for seeds stored sealed (120 g kg(-1)) at 10 degreesC, except for the low vigor seed lots which declined significantly at the last sample date. The AA germination declined significantly for all, seed lots stored sealed at 10 degreesC, however the EC did not change during the same storage period. Seeds stored sealed at 20 degreesC and unsealed in the WH showed rapid declines in AA and SG and significant increases in EC. When these seeds were moved to 10 degreesC, however, the AA continued to decline while the EC remained at the same level (no significant change) for the remainder of the seed storage period. Thus whilst the AA declined in all environments, the EC only increased at higher temperatures (20 degreesC, WH) but showed little change during storage at 10 degreesC. Thus, precautions must be taken if using EC to measure soybean seed vigor following storage at 10 degreesC.

Accelerated ageing test to evaluate seed vigor in pumpkin and zucchini seeds

The accelerated ageing (AA) test is widely used to evaluate seed vigor in various species including vegetable crops. The objective of this work was to study procedures for conducting AA to evaluate seed vigor of pumpkin and zucchini seed lots. Five seed lots of commercially acceptable quality (germination) standards were selected from both cv. `Menina Brasileira' (zucchini) and `Barbara' Hybrid (pumpkin). The following tests were conducted: standard germination, the first count of germination, and AA with and without saline solution (periods of 48, 72 and 96 hours). For each combination of temperature and ageing period, seeds were placed in a single layer on a screen in a germination plastic box with either 40 mL deionized water or 40g NaCl/100mL of water. Both AA methods identified lots 2 and 5 of `Menina Brasileira' and lot 10 of `Barbara' hybrid as having the lowest physiological quality. The temperature 41 C promoted a more drastic reduction in germination than did 38 C. This observation was more marked after 96 hours. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the combination 41 degrees C/96 hours should be used to evaluate the physiological potential of pumpkin and zucchini seeds; however, additional studies are necessary to evaluate other combinations and confirm this indication.