904 resultados para risk theory


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Introduction Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries. Method A survey of 2,532 Queensland adults who had ridden at least once in the past year was conducted from October 2009 to March 2010, with most responses received online (99.3%). Riders were asked where they rode (footpath, bike path, road etc.), average travel speed, purpose of riding, type of bike ridden, how far and how often they rode in. Measures of rider experience, skill, safety perceptions, safety behaviours, crash involvement and demographic characteristics were also collected. RESULTS Increasing exposure and having more expensive bicycles were shown to reduce the risk per km of crash and non-crash injury rates, and to reduce perceived risk. Never wearing bright coloured clothing related to increased crash risk, use of fluorescent and reflective clothing had no effect on crash risk. Riding in low-speed environments, never using a front light, and riding in low-speed environments were associated with reduced non-crash injury risk. Perceived risk was influenced by exposure, use of conspicuity aids and helmets, riding for utilitarian reasons, and group-riding behaviours. DISCUSSION Perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates and injury rates do not appear to influence the perceived risk of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling to be risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding and always wear helmets. Not all measures of conspicuity were associated with risk, with rear lights found to have no relationship to injury. The risks of experiencing a crash or non-crash injury were similar, therefore injury prevention strategies should expand their scope to include other factors such as the importance of bicycle set-up.

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Injury is the leading cause of death among young people, and involvement in health risk behaviors, such as alcohol use and transport-related risks, is related to increased risk for injury. Effective health promotion programs for adolescents focus on multiple levels, including relationships with peers and parents, student knowledge, behavior and attitudes, and school-level factors such as school connectedness. This study describes the pilot evaluation of a comprehensive, multi-level injury prevention program for 13-14 year old adolescents, targeting change in injury associated with transport and alcohol risks. The program, called Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), incorporates two primary elements: an 8-week, teacher delivered attitude and behavior change curriculum with peer protection and first aid messages; and professional development for program teachers focusing on strategies to increase students’ connectedness to school. Five Australian high schools were recruited for the pilot evaluation research, with three being assigned to receive intervention components and two assigned as curriculum-as-usual controls. In the intervention schools, 118 Year 8 students participated in surveys at baseline, with 105 completing surveys at follow up, six months following the intervention. In the control schools, 196 Year 8 students completed surveys at baseline and 207 at follow up. Survey measures included self-reported injury, risk taking behavior and school connectedness. Results showed that students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report riding bikes without helmets, riding with dangerous drivers, having driven cars on the road, and using alcohol six months after the program, while the intervention group showed no such increase in these behaviors. Additionally, students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report having had pedestrian-related injuries at follow up than they were at the baseline measurement, while intervention school students showed no change. There was also a trend observed in terms of a decrease in bicycle related injuries among intervention school students, compared with a slight increasing trend in bicycle injuries among control students. Overall, scores on the school connectedness scale decreased significantly from baseline to follow up for both intervention and control students, however measurement limitations may have impacted on results relating to students’ connectedness. Overall, the SPIY program has shown promising results in regards to prevention of students’ health risk behavior and injuries. Evidence suggests that the curriculum component was important; however there was limited evidence to suggest that teacher training in school connectedness strategies contributed to these promising results. While school connectedness may be an important factor to target in risk and injury prevention programs, programs may need to incorporate whole-of-school strategies or target a broader range of teachers than were selected for the current research.

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The management of risks in business processes has been a subject of active research in the past few years. Many benefits can potentially be obtained by integrating the two traditionally-separated fields of risk management and business process management, including the ability to minimize risks in business processes (by design) and to mitigate risks at run time. In the past few years, an increasing amount of research aimed at delivering such an integrated system has been proposed. However, these research efforts vary in terms of their scope, goals, and functionality. Through systematic collection and evaluation of relevant literature, this paper compares and classifies current approaches in the area of risk-aware business process management in order to identify and explain relevant research gaps. The process through which relevant literature is collected, filtered, and evaluated is also detailed.

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Creativity plays an increasingly important role in our personal, social, educational, and community lives. For adolescents, creativity can enable self-expression, be a means of pushing boundaries, and assist learning, achievement, and completion of everyday tasks. Moreover, adolescents who demonstrate creativity can potentially enhance their capacity to face unknown future challenges, address mounting social and ecological issues in our global society, and improve their career opportunities and contribution to the economy. For these reasons, creativity is an essential capacity for young people in their present and future, and is highlighted as a priority in current educational policy nationally and internationally. Despite growing recognition of creativity’s importance and attention to creativity in research, the creative experience from the perspectives of the creators themselves and the creativity of adolescents are neglected fields of study. Hence, this research investigated adolescents’ self-reported experiences of creativity to improve understandings of their creative processes and manifestations, and how these can be supported or inhibited. Although some aspects of creativity have been extensively researched, there were no comprehensive, multidisciplinary theoretical frameworks of adolescent creativity to provide a foundation for this study. Therefore, a grounded theory methodology was adopted for the purpose of constructing a new theory to describe and explain adolescents’ creativity in a range of domains. The study’s constructivist-interpretivist perspective viewed the data and findings as interpretations of adolescents’ creative experiences, co-constructed by the participants and the researcher. The research was conducted in two academically selective high schools in Australia: one arts school, and one science, mathematics, and technology school. Twenty adolescent participants (10 from each school) were selected using theoretical sampling. Data were collected via focus groups, individual interviews, an online discussion forum, and email communications. Grounded theory methods informed a process of concurrent data collection and analysis; each iteration of analysis informed subsequent data collection. Findings portray creativity as it was perceived and experienced by participants, presented in a Grounded Theory of Adolescent Creativity. The Grounded Theory of Adolescent Creativity comprises a core category, Perceiving and Pursuing Novelty: Not the Norm, which linked all findings in the study. This core category explains how creativity involved adolescents perceiving stimuli and experiences differently, approaching tasks or life unconventionally, and pursuing novel ideas to create outcomes that are not the norm when compared with outcomes by peers. Elaboration of the core category is provided by the major categories of findings. That is, adolescent creativity entailed utilising a network of Sub-Processes of Creativity, using strategies for Managing Constraints and Challenges, and drawing on different Approaches to Creativity – adaptation, transfer, synthesis, and genesis – to apply the sub-processes and produce creative outcomes. Potentially, there were Effects of Creativity on Creators and Audiences, depending on the adolescent and the task. Three Types of Creativity were identified as the manifestations of the creative process: creative personal expression, creative boundary pushing, and creative task achievement. Interactions among adolescents’ dispositions and environments were influential in their creativity. Patterns and variations of these interactions revealed a framework of four Contexts for Creativity that offered different levels of support for creativity: high creative disposition–supportive environment; high creative disposition–inhibiting environment; low creative disposition–supportive environment; and low creative disposition–inhibiting environment. These contexts represent dimensional ranges of how dispositions and environments supported or inhibited creativity, and reveal that the optimal context for creativity differed depending on the adolescent, task, domain, and environment. This study makes four main contributions, which have methodological and theoretical implications for researchers, as well as practical implications for adolescents, parents, teachers, policy and curriculum developers, and other interested stakeholders who aim to foster the creativity of adolescents. First, this study contributes methodologically through its constructivist-interpretivist grounded theory methodology combining the grounded theory approaches of Corbin and Strauss (2008) and Charmaz (2006). Innovative data collection was also demonstrated through integration of data from online and face-to-face interactions with adolescents, within the grounded theory design. These methodological contributions have broad applicability to researchers examining complex constructs and processes, and with populations who integrate multimedia as a natural form of communication. Second, applicable to creativity in diverse domains, the Grounded Theory of Adolescent Creativity supports a hybrid view of creativity as both domain-general and domain-specific. A third major contribution was identification of a new form of creativity, educational creativity (ed-c), which categorises creativity for learning or achievement within the constraints of formal educational contexts. These theoretical contributions inform further research about creativity in different domains or multidisciplinary areas, and with populations engaged in formal education. However, the key contribution of this research is that it presents an original Theory and Model of Adolescent Creativity to explain the complex, multifaceted phenomenon of adolescents’ creative experiences.

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An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

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Purpose: Young novice drivers experience significantly greater risk of being injured or killed in car crashes than older more experienced drivers. This research utilised a qualitative approach guided by the framework of Akers’ social learning theory. It explored young novice drivers’ perspectives on risky driving including rewards and punishments expected from and administered by parents, friends, and police, imitation of parents’ and friends’ driving, and advantages and disadvantages of risky driving. Methods: Twenty-one young drivers (12 females, 9 males) aged 16–25 years (M = 17.71 years, SD = 2.15) with a Learner (n = 11) or Provisional (n = 10) driver licence participated in individual or small group interviews. Findings and conclusions: Content analysis supported four themes: (1) rewards and (2) punishments for risky driving, and the influence of (3) parents and (4) friends. The young novice drivers differed in their vulnerability to the negative influences of friends and parents, with some novices advising they were able to resist risky normative influences whilst others felt they could not. The authority of the police as enforcers of road rules was either accepted and respected or seen as being used to persecute young novices. These findings suggest that road safety interventions should consider the normative influence of parents and friends on the risky and safe behaviour of young novices. Police were also seen as influential upon behaviour. Future research should explore the complicated relationship between parents, friends, the police, young novices, and their risky driving behaviour.

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The purpose of this study was to challenge the broadly based focus of injury prevention strategies towards concern with the needs of young adolescents who engage in multiple anti-social and delinquent behaviours. Five hundred and forty 13-14 year olds reported on injuries and truancy, violence, illegal road behaviours, drug, and alcohol use. Engagement in these behaviours was found to contribute to the likelihood of an injury. Those engaging in the most anti-social and delinquent behaviours were around five times more likely to report medically-treated injuries in the past three months. Their likelihood of future injury was 1.8 times more likely when they were followed up three months later. The engagement in multiple delinquent and illegal behaviours thus significantly increased the likelihood of injury and identifies a particularly vulnerable group. The findings also suggest that reaching these young people represents a key target for change strategies in injury prevention programs.

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This report describes the Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) pilot project run at Gladstone Central State School from September to December 2010. The report describes the aims, budget, and timeline of the project and its findings in relation to each of the three major objectives of the project, namely (a) build awareness of, interest in, and familiarity with trades as a future vocation and opportunity for advancement; (b) enhance literacy, numeracy and science knowledge and performance; and (c) provide motivation and engagement to stay on at school and build towards a productive future. The clear findings of the GIVE Gladstone Year 4 pilot project are that, for students at risk in terms of school attendance, engagement and learning: (1) awareness of trades, literacy, mathematics and science knowledge, and motivation and engagement all improve and, in most cases, dramatically improve, in the GIVE structure; (2) this improvement involves transfer to situations and concepts not directly addressed in the project; and (3) the crucial factor in the GIVE structure that gives the improvement is the integration of classroom work with trades experiences and not the classroom and trades experiences themselves (although it is better if these are good).

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This report describes the Get Into Vocational Education (GIVE) pilot project run in the Rockhampton Region at two schools in 2011. The report includes a description of the project, including its aims, budget, and timeline; and the findings in relation to each of the three major objectives of the project, namely (a) build awareness of, interest in, and familiarity with, trades as a future vocation and opportunity for advancement; (b) enhance literacy, numeracy and science knowledge and performance; and (c) provide motivation and engagement to stay on at school and build towards a productive future. The clear findings of the GIVE Rockhampton Region pilot project are that, for students at risk in terms of school attendance, engagement and learning: (1) awareness of trade practices in horticulture, hospitality, retail, and design and engineering, literacy, mathematics and science knowledge, and motivation and engagement all improve and, in most cases, dramatically improve, in the GIVE structure; and (2) the crucial factor in the GIVE structure that gives the improvement is the integration of classroom work with trades experiences and not the classroom and trades experiences themselves (although it is better if these are good).

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A managed team of discipline-experienced and trained later year students are used as Student Success Advisors (SSAs) in the Student Success Program, an intervention program that manages student engagement by identifying and supporting first year students at-risk of disengaging from learning. This report focuses on the recruitment and training of SSAs and the day-to-day challenges they and their managers face. The Nuts & Bolts session provides participants with opportunities to discuss the applicability to their institutional contexts of the recruitment and training processes and the “solutions” to the challenges used at QUT.

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Information communication and technology (ICT) systems are almost ubiquitous in the modern world. It is hard to identify any industry, or for that matter any part of society, that is not in some way dependent on these systems and their continued secure operation. Therefore the security of information infrastructures, both on an organisational and societal level, is of critical importance. Information security risk assessment is an essential part of ensuring that these systems are appropriately protected and positioned to deal with a rapidly changing threat environment. The complexity of these systems and their inter-dependencies however, introduces a similar complexity to the information security risk assessment task. This complexity suggests that information security risk assessment cannot, optimally, be undertaken manually. Information security risk assessment for individual components of the information infrastructure can be aided by the use of a software tool, a type of simulation, which concentrates on modelling failure rather than normal operational simulation. Avoiding the modelling of the operational system will once again reduce the level of complexity of the assessment task. The use of such a tool provides the opportunity to reuse information in many different ways by developing a repository of relevant information to aid in both risk assessment and management and governance and compliance activities. Widespread use of such a tool allows the opportunity for the risk models developed for individual information infrastructure components to be connected in order to develop a model of information security exposures across the entire information infrastructure. In this thesis conceptual and practical aspects of risk and its underlying epistemology are analysed to produce a model suitable for application to information security risk assessment. Based on this work prototype software has been developed to explore these concepts for information security risk assessment. Initial work has been carried out to investigate the use of this software for information security compliance and governance activities. Finally, an initial concept for extending the use of this approach across an information infrastructure is presented.

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The objective of this chapter is to provide rail practitioners with a practical approach for determining safety requirements of low-cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) on an Australian railway by way of a case study. LCLCWDs, in theory, allow railway operators to improve the safety of passively controlled crossing by upgrading a larger number of level crossings with the same budget that would otherwise be used to upgrade these using the conventional active level crossing control technologies, e.g. track circuit initiated flashing light systems. The chapter discusses the experience and obstacles of adopting LCLCWDs in Australia, and demonstrates how the risk-based approach may be used to make the case for LCLCWDs.

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An extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) was used to predict young people’s intentions to donate money to charities in the future. Students (N = 210; 18-24 years) completed a questionnaire assessing their attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control [PBC], moral obligation, past behavior and intentions toward donating money. Regression analyses revealed the extended TPB explained 61% of the variance in intentions to donate money. Attitude, PBC, moral norm, and past behavior predicted intentions, representing future targets for charitable giving interventions.