The uncertainty enabled model web (UncertWeb)

UncertWeb is a European research project running from 2010-2013 that will realize the uncertainty enabled model web. The assumption is that data services, in order to be useful, need to provide information about the accuracy or uncertainty of the data in a machine-readable form. Models taking these data as imput should understand this and propagate errors through model computations, and quantify and communicate errors or uncertainties generated by the model approximations. The project will develop technology to realize this and provide demonstration case studies.

The production of a framework of competences for pharmacy practice in the European Union:the PHAR-QA project

Background and objectives: The goal of the PHAR-QA (Qualityassurance in European pharmacy education and training) project isthe production of a European framework of competences for pharmacypractice. This PHAR-QA framework (www.phar-qa.eu) will beEuropean and consultative i.e. it will be used for harmonization—butwill not to replace existing national QA systems.Methods: Using the proposals for competences produced by the previousPHARMINE(Pharmacy education in Europe; www.pharmine.eu) project, together with those of other sources, the authors produced a listof 68 personal and patient care competencies. Using internet surveytools the stakeholders—European pharmacy community (universitydepartment staff and students, community, hospital and industrialpharmacists, as well as pharmacists working in clinical biology andother branches, together with representatives of chambers and associations)—were invited to rank the proposals and add comments.Results and conclusions: Pharmacology and pharmacotherapy togetherwith competences such as ‘‘supply of appropriate medicinestaking into account dose, correct formulation, concentration, administrationroute and timing’’ ranked high. Other topics such as ‘‘currentknowledge of design, synthesis, isolation, characterisation and biologicalevaluation of active substances’’ ranked lower.Implications for practice: In the short term, it is anticipated that thissurvey will stimulate a productive discussion on pharmacy educationand practice by the various stakeholders. In the long term, thisframework could serve as a European model framework of competencesfor pharmacy practice.Acknowledgements: With the support of the Lifelong Learningprogramme of the European Union: 527194-LLP-1-2012-1-BEERASMUS-EMCR. This publication reflects the views only of theauthors; the Commission cannot be held responsible for any usewhich may be made of the information contained therein.

A magyar hallgatók vállalkozásindító szándékát befolyásoló tényezők modellje - Ajzen tervezett magatartás elméletének kiterjesztése (Model of the Hungarian students’ business start-up intention influencing factors – Extending of Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior)

A vállalkozási tevékenység a munkahelyteremtés és a gazdasági növekedés egyik döntő tényezője. Ennek a jövőbeli kedvező alakulását a fiatalok mai attitűdjei határozzák meg. Ha be tudjuk azonosítani a legfontosabb tényezőket, amelyek a fiatalok vállalkozásindítási szándékát befolyásolják, el tudjuk dönteni azt is, mely területen lehet és érdemes beavatkozni annak érdekében, hogy minél több új, életképes vállalkozás szülessen. A cikk a GUESSS kutatási projekt magyarországi adatbázisának köszönhetően közel 6000 hallgató válaszait elemezve rendszerezi a felsőoktatásban résztvevők vállalkozásindítási szándékára ható legfontosabb tényezőcsoportokat. Első lépésben Ajzen tervezett magatartás elméletének alkalmazásával vizsgálja a vállalkozásindítási szándék alakítóit, majd további tényezők, így a felsőoktatási intézmények által nyújtott szolgáltatások, a családi háttér és a demográfiai jellemzők bevonásával igyekszik minél pontosabban leírni a szándék alakulását. _____ Entrepreneurial activity is a decisive factor in the dynamics of job creation and economic growth. The future level of this activity highly depends on the attitudes of today’s youth towards this. If the most important factors influencing attitudes are identified and the entrepreneurial intentions towards entrepreneurship are determined, the fields of intervention targeting the creation of as many new and viable enterprises as possible can be defined. This article aims to systematise the most important factor groups that influence the decisions of students studying in higher education in terms of start-up activities and is based on the Hungarian database of the GUESSS research project, containing almost 6000 respondents. Firstly, it tests Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior. Then such factors as supportive services provided by higher education institutions, family background and demographic factors are analysed in order to improve the explanatory power of the model.

A New Approach Model in Post Graduate Training of Local Government Officers

In 2013-15 there was a new type of post graduate training elaborated and piloted in Hungary at the Institute of Executive Training and Continuing Education (VTKI) within the National University of Public Service (NKE). Although the pilot financed by the State Administration Reform Operative Program (ÁROP) had not lacked the previously established attempts to include interactivity in the training, it was the first to observe and apply the actual principles of the European Union 2020 expressed in the threefold criteria of economic growth: smartness, sustainability and inclusiveness. All of them are represented by a pillar of the program like e-learning, class training and field training with the inclusion of local society. According to the objectives of the program there were at least 10 thousand attendees from the civil service sphere set as project indicators, so it has been a large scale training program that took place in 2014 in Hungary. The following article shows the innovations included in this new approach model of post graduate training civil servants.

Investigating positive identity development in a school-based youth development project

Adolescence is a pivotal period offering both opportunities and constraints on individual development. It is during this important time that one decides upon and commits to the values, goals, and beliefs which will form one's identity and guide one throughout the lifespan. Positive youth development programs, such as the Miami Youth Development Project's Changing Lives Program, target the formation of a positive sense of identity as a critical intervention point. Through developing a coherent and positive sense of self, adolescents take control of and responsibility for their lives and their decisions. Furthermore, a positive identity has been found to be a developmental asset and is linked to lower risk behaviors and positive outcomes including increased self-esteem, sense of purpose, and a positive view of the future. Positive youth development programs, which promote positive identity development, have been found to be more strongly tied to positive outcomes including skills, values, and competencies than have contextual opportunities. As such, it is critical to determine what leads to positive identity development. ^ The current study used structural equation modeling to evaluate three potential mediators of identity development. Findings indicated good model fit where change in identity commitment and change in identity exploration were mediated by informational identity style, personal expressiveness, and identity distress. There were also significant differences found between the control and intervention groups indicative of intervention effects. The findings of the current study suggest potential areas of intervention as well as the need for further research including longitudinal study and the use of qualitative methodology. ^

A model of self -transformative identity development in troubled adolescent youth

Within the Stage II program evaluation of the Miami Youth Development Project's (YDP) Changing Lives Program (CLP), this study evaluated CLP intervention effectiveness in promoting positive change in emotion-focused identity exploration (i.e. feelings of personal expressiveness; PE) and a "negative" symptom of identity development (i.e. identity distress; ID) as a first step toward the investigation of a self-transformative model of identity development in adolescent youth. Using structural equation modeling techniques, this study found that participation in the CLP is associated with positive changes in PE (path = .841, p < .002), but not changes in ID. Increase in ID scores was found to be associated with increases in PE (path = .229, p < .002), as well. Intervention effects were not moderated by age/stage, gender, or ethnicity, though differences were found in the degree to which participating subgroups (African-American/Hispanic, male/female, 14-16 years old/17-19 years old) experience change in PE and ID. Findings also suggest that moderate levels of ID may not be deleterious to identity exploration and may be associated with active exploration. ^

Evaluating the Appropriateness of Project Delivery Systems for Different Trenchless Methods

Trenchless methods have been considered to be a viable solution for pipeline projects in urban areas. Their applicability in pipeline projects is expected to increase with the rapid advancements in technology and emerging concerns regarding social costs related to trenching methods. Selecting appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is a key to the success of trenchless projects. To ensure success of the project, the selected project delivery should be tailored to trenchless project specific characteristics and owner needs, since the effectiveness of project delivery systems differs based on different project characteristics and owners requirements. Since different trenchless methods have specific characteristics such rate of installation, lengths of installation, and accuracy, the same project delivery systems may not be equally effective for different methods. The intent of this paper is to evaluate the appropriateness of different PDS for different trenchless methods. PDS are examined through a structured decision-making process called Fuzzy Delivery System Selection Model (FDSSM). The process of incorporating the impacts of: (a) the characteristics of trenchless projects and (b) owners’ needs in the FDSSM is performed by collecting data using questionnaires deployed to professionals involved in the trenchless industry in order to determine the importance of delivery systems selection attributes for different trenchless methods, and then analyzing this data. The sensitivity of PDS rankings with respect to trenchless methods is considered in order to evaluate whether similar project delivery systems are equally effective in different trenchless methods. The effectiveness of PDS with respect to attributes is defined as follows: a project delivery system is most effective with respect to an attribute (e.g., ability to control growth in costs ) if there is no project delivery system that is more effective than that PDS. The results of this study may assist trenchless project owners to select the appropriate PDS for the trenchless method selected.

Integrated construction project delivery system in the U.S. public sector: An information modeling framework

Integrated project delivery (IPD) method has recently emerged as an alternative to traditional delivery methods. It has the potential to overcome inefficiencies of traditional delivery methods by enhancing collaboration among project participants. Information and communication technology (ICT) facilitates IPD by effective management, processing and communication of information within and among organizations. While the benefits of IPD, and the role of ICT in realizing them, have been generally acknowledged, the US public construction sector is very slow in adopting IPD. The reasons are - lack of experience and inadequate understanding of IPD in public owner as confirmed by the results of the questionnaire survey conducted under this research study. The public construction sector should be aware of the value of IPD and should know the essentials for effective implementation of IPD principles - especially, they should be cognizant of the opportunities offered by advancements in ICT to realize this.^ In order to address the need an IPD Readiness Assessment Model (IPD-RAM) was developed in this research study. The model was designed with a goal to determine IPD readiness of a public owner organization considering selected IPD principles, and ICT levels, at which project functions were carried out. Subsequent analysis led to identification of possible improvements in ICTs that have the potential to increase IPD readiness scores. Termed as the gap identification, this process was used to formulate improvement strategies. The model had been applied to six Florida International University (FIU) construction projects (case studies). The results showed that the IPD readiness of the organization was considerably low and several project functions can be improved by using higher and/or advanced level ICT tools and methods. Feedbacks from a focus group comprised of FIU officials and an independent group of experts had been received at various stages of this research and had been utilized during development and implementation of the model. Focus group input was also helpful for validation of the model and its results. It was hoped that the model developed would be useful to construction owner organizations in order to assess their IPD readiness and to identify appropriate ICT improvement strategies.^

An interactive environmental site assessment audit for Wagner Creek river basin clean up project

The primary purpose of this thesis was to design and create an Interactive Audit to conduct Environmental Site Assessments according to American Society of Testing Material's (ASTM) Phase I Standards at the Wagner Creek study area. ArcPad and ArcIMS are the major software that were used to create the model and ArcGIS Desktop was used for data analysis and to export shapefile symbology to ArcPad. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is an effective tool to deploy these purposes. This technology was utilized to carry out data collection, data analysis and to display data interactively on the Internet. Electronic forms, customized for mobile devices were used to survey sites. This is an easy and fast way to collect and modify field data. New data such as land use, recognized environmental conditions, and underground storage tanks can be added into existing datasets. An updated map is then generated and uploaded to the Internet using ArcIMS technology. The field investigator has the option to generate and view the Inspection Form at the end of his survey on site, or print a hardcopy at base. The mobile device also automatically generates preliminary editable Executive Reports for any inspected site.

A model of self-transformative identity development in troubled adolescent youth

Within the Stage II program evaluation of the Miami Youth Development Project's (YDP) Changing Lives Program (CLP), this study evaluated CLP intervention effectiveness in promoting positive change in emotion-focused identity exploration (i.e. feelings of personal expressiveness; PE) and a "negative" symptom of identity development (i.e. identity distress; ID) as a first step toward the investigation of a self-transformative model of identity development in adolescent youth. Using structural equation modeling techniques, this study found that participation in the CLP is associated with positive changes in PE (path = .841, p < .002), but not changes in ID. Increase in ID scores was found to be associated with increases in PE (path = .229, p < .002), as well. Intervention effects were not moderated by age/stage, gender, or ethnicity, though differences were found in the degree to which participating subgroups (African- American/Hispanic, male/female, 14-16 years old/17-19 years old) experience change in PE and ID. Findings also suggest that moderate levels of ID may not be deleterious to identity exploration and may be associated with active exploration.

Database of the GLAMAP project

A uniform chronology for foraminifera-based sea surface temperature records has been established in more than 120 sediment cores obtained from the equatorial and eastern Atlantic up to the Arctic Ocean. The chronostratigraphy of the last 30,000 years is mainly based on published d18O records and 14C ages from accelerator mass spectrometry, converted into calendar-year ages. The high-precision age control provides the database necessary for the uniform reconstruction of the climate interval of the Last Glacial Maximum within the GLAMAP-2000 project.

Deterministic and probabilistic verification of multi-model meteorological forecasts on the subseasonal timescale

In questo studio, un multi-model ensemble è stato implementato e verificato, seguendo una delle priorità di ricerca del Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S). Una regressione lineare è stata applicata ad un insieme di previsioni di ensemble su date passate, prodotte dai centri di previsione mensile del CNR-ISAC e ECMWF-IFS. Ognuna di queste contiene un membro di controllo e quattro elementi perturbati. Le variabili scelte per l'analisi sono l'altezza geopotenziale a 500 hPa, la temperatura a 850 hPa e la temperatura a 2 metri, la griglia spaziale ha risoluzione 1 ◦ × 1 ◦ lat-lon e sono stati utilizzati gli inverni dal 1990 al 2010. Le rianalisi di ERA-Interim sono utilizzate sia per realizzare la regressione, sia nella validazione dei risultati, mediante stimatori nonprobabilistici come lo scarto quadratico medio (RMSE) e la correlazione delle anomalie. Successivamente, tecniche di Model Output Statistics (MOS) e Direct Model Output (DMO) sono applicate al multi-model ensemble per ottenere previsioni probabilistiche per la media settimanale delle anomalie di temperatura a 2 metri. I metodi MOS utilizzati sono la regressione logistica e la regressione Gaussiana non-omogenea, mentre quelli DMO sono il democratic voting e il Tukey plotting position. Queste tecniche sono applicate anche ai singoli modelli in modo da effettuare confronti basati su stimatori probabilistici, come il ranked probability skill score, il discrete ranked probability skill score e il reliability diagram. Entrambe le tipologie di stimatori mostrano come il multi-model abbia migliori performance rispetto ai singoli modelli. Inoltre, i valori più alti di stimatori probabilistici sono ottenuti usando una regressione logistica sulla sola media di ensemble. Applicando la regressione a dataset di dimensione ridotta, abbiamo realizzato una curva di apprendimento che mostra come un aumento del numero di date nella fase di addestramento non produrrebbe ulteriori miglioramenti.

Age model of firn core DML03C98_09

The influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on sea salt aerosol deposition in the study area of the new EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) deep drilling in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, has been investigated. Comparison of ice core records with reanalysis data showed that recent sea salt concentrations are strongly influenced by the occurrence of a blocking high pressure ridge over the eastern and enhanced storm activity over the western Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (SO) leading to marine intrusions, thus enhanced sea salt export, into DML. These variations occur with periods of 4-5 and 12-14 yr, the prior being associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The prevalence of these periodicities in a 2000 year ice core record from DML shows for the first time that the ACW is a prevalent feature of SO atmosphere dynamics over the last two millennia.

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice-willow crops in Britain

Acknowledgements This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Using high resolution tracer data to constrain water storage, flux and age estimates in a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Jonathan Dick, Josie Geris, Jason Lessels, and Claire Tunaley for data collection and Audrey Innes for lab sample preparation. We also thank Christian Birkel for discussions about the model structure and comments on an earlier draft of the paper. Climatic data were provided by Iain Malcolm and Marine Scotland Fisheries at the Freshwater Lab, Pitlochry. Additional precipitation data were provided by the UK Meteorological Office and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC).We thank the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding the VeWa project.