Chemical contaminants in the coral Porites astreoides from southwest Puerto Rico

This report presents an initial characterization of chemical contamination in coral tissues (Porites astreoides) from southwest Puerto Rico. It is the second technical report from a project to characterize chemical contaminants and assess linkages between contamination and coral condition. The first report quantified chemical contaminants in sediments from southwest Puerto Rico. This document summarizes the analysis of nearly 150 chemical contaminants in coral tissues. Although only eight coral samples were collected, some observations can be made on the correlations between observed tissue and sediment contaminant concentrations. The concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), typically associated with petroleum spills and the combustion of fossil fuels, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the coral tissues were comparable to concentrations found in adjacent sediments. However, the concentration of a chemical contaminant (e.g., PAHs) in the coral tissues at a particular site was not a good predictor of what was in the adjacent sediments. In addition, the types of PAHs found in the coral tissues were somewhat different (higher ratios of alkylated PAHs) than in sediments. The levels of PCBs and DDT in coral tissues appeared higher just outside of Guanica Bay, and there was evidence of a downstream concentration gradient for these two contaminant classes. The trace elements copper, zinc and nickel were frequently detected in coral tissues, and the concentration in the corals was usually comparable to that found in adjacent sediments. Chromium was an exception in that it was not detected in any of the coral tissues analyzed. Additional work is needed to assess how spatial patterns in chemical contamination affect coral condition, abundance and distribution.

A statistical model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We describe an empirical-statistical model of climates of the southwestern United States. Boundary conditions include sea surface temperatures, atmospheric transmissivity, and topography. Independent variables are derived from the boundary conditions along 1000-km paths of atmospheric circulation. ... Predictor equations are derived over a larger region than the application area to allow for the increased range of paleoclimate. This larger region is delimited by the autocorrelation properties of climatic data.

The influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variations on runoff in California and southwestern Oregon

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There is considerable seasonal-to-interannual variability in the runoff of major watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, Coastal, and Cascade ranges of California and southwestern Oregon. This variability is reflected in both the amount and timing of runoff. This study examines that variability using long historical streamflow records and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation. ... Precipitation is the only significant predictor for both amount and timing of runoff in the low elevation basins. As elevation increases, the models rely more and more on temperature to explain amount and timing of runoff.

Transient growth and triggering in the horizontal Rijke tube Matthew

This theoretical paper examines a non-normal and non-linear model of a horizontal Rijke tube. Linear and non-linear optimal initial states, which maximize acoustic energy growth over a given time from a given energy, are calculated. It is found that non-linearity and non-normality both contribute to transient growth and that, for this model, linear optimal states are only a good predictor of non-linear optimal states for low initial energies. Two types of non-linear optimal initial state are found. The first has strong energy growth during the first period of the fundamental mode but loses energy thereafter. The second has weaker energy growth during the first period but retains high energy for longer. The second type causes triggering to self-sustained oscillations from lower energy than the first and has higher energy in the fundamental mode. This suggests, for instance, that low frequency noise will be more effective at causing triggering than high frequency noise.

A simple prediction model for asphalt surface texture incorporating mix gradation and air voids

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study that seeks to show how asphalt grading and air voids are related to the texture depth of asphalt. The fiftieth percentile particle size (D50) is shown to be a good predictor of texture depth measurements from a collected database of field and laboratory studies. The D50 is used to normalise collected texture data and this 'relative texture' is shown to correlate with air voids. Regression analyses confirm that air voids should be included along with a measure of gradation in the interpretation of asphalt surface texture.The derived formulae are used to develop correlation charts.

Ranking binder creep performance using the arrb elastometer

This paper discusses a laboratory study used to characterize bituminous binders based on their dynamic creep resistance. Laboratory testing using four different loading regimes on asphalt mixes with six different bituminous binders was undertaken. Creep cycles to 2% accumulated strain were used to define the creep resistance of the asphalt mixes with the various binders. Underlying viscosities of the bitumens were derived using the Australian Road Research Board (ARRB) Elastometer. Marshall stability was measured on the specimens that were prepared using gyratory compaction. Regression plots were prepared that link creep resistance, underlying viscosity, and Marshall stability. It was found that the ARRB Elastometer is able to measure underlying viscosity, which is a reasonable predictor of dynamic creep resistance. Marshall stability was also shown to be a good indicator of dynamic creep resistance. Therefore, simpler tests such as Marshall stability and Elastometer can be used to rank bituminous materials for asphalt mix design purposes in the laboratory. © 2010 ASCE.

Phase synchronization between stratospheric and tropospheric quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations

A combination of singular systems analysis and analytic phase techniques are used to investigate the possible occurrence in observations of coherent synchronization between quasi-biennial and semi-annual oscillations (QBOs; SAOs) in the stratosphere and troposphere. Time series of zonal mean zonal winds near the Equator are analysed from the ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets over a ∼ 50-year period. In the stratosphere, the QBO is found to synchronize with the SAO almost all the time, but with a frequency ratio that changes erratically between 4:1, 5:1 and 6:1. A similar variable synchronization is also evident in the tropical troposphere between semi-annual and quasi-biennial cycles (known as TBOs). Mean zonal winds from ERA-40 and ERA-interim, and also time series of indices for the Indian and West Pacific monsoons, are commonly found to exhibit synchronization, with SAO/TBO ratios that vary between 4:1 and 7:1. Coherent synchronization between the QBO and tropical TBO does not appear to persist for long intervals, however. This suggests that both the QBO and tropical TBOs may be separately synchronized to SAOs that are themselves enslaved to the seasonal cycle, or to the annual cycle itself. However, the QBO and TBOs are evidently only weakly coupled between themselves and are frequently found to lose mutual coherence when each changes its frequency ratio to its respective SAO. This suggests a need to revise a commonly cited paradigm that advocates the use of stratospheric QBO indices as a predictor for tropospheric phenomena such as monsoons and hurricanes. © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Two-orbit switch-pitch structures

The Hoberman 'switch-pitch ' ball is a transformable structure with a single folding and unfolding path. The underlying cubic structure has a novel mechanism that retains tetrahedral symmetry during folding. Here, we propose a generalized class of structures of a similar type that retain their full symmetry during folding. The key idea is that we require two orbits of nodes for the structure: within each orbit, any node can be copied to any other node by a symmetry operation. Each member is connected to two nodes, which may be in different orbits, by revolute joints. We will describe the symmetry analysis that reveals the symmetry of the internal mechanism modes for a switch-pitch structure. To follow the complete folding path of the structure, a nonlinear iterative predictor-corrector algorithm based on the Newton method is adopted. First, a simple tetrahedral example of the class of two-orbit structures is presented. Typical configurations along the folding path are shown. Larger members of the class of structures are also presented, all with cubic symmetry. These switch-pitch structures could have useful applications as deployable structures.

Visual search near threshold: Some features are more equal than others.

While searching for objects, we combine information from multiple visual modalities. Classical theories of visual search assume that features are processed independently prior to an integration stage. Based on this, one would predict that features that are equally discriminable in single feature search should remain so in conjunction search. We test this hypothesis by examining whether search accuracy in feature search predicts accuracy in conjunction search. Subjects searched for objects combining color and orientation or size; eye movements were recorded. Prior to the main experiment, we matched feature discriminability, making sure that in feature search, 70% of saccades were likely to go to the correct target stimulus. In contrast to this symmetric single feature discrimination performance, the conjunction search task showed an asymmetry in feature discrimination performance: In conjunction search, a similar percentage of saccades went to the correct color as in feature search but much less often to correct orientation or size. Therefore, accuracy in feature search is a good predictor of accuracy in conjunction search for color but not for size and orientation. We propose two explanations for the presence of such asymmetries in conjunction search: the use of conjunctively tuned channels and differential crowding effects for different features.

Human pavlovian-instrumental transfer.

The vigor with which a participant performs actions that produce valuable outcomes is subject to a complex set of motivational influences. Many of these are believed to involve the amygdala and the nucleus accumbens, which act as an interface between limbic and motor systems. One prominent class of influences is called pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT), in which the motivational characteristics of a predictor influence the vigor of an action with respect to which it is formally completely independent. We provide a demonstration of behavioral PIT in humans, with an audiovisual predictor of the noncontingent delivery of money inducing participants to perform more avidly an action involving squeezing a handgrip to earn money. Furthermore, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that this enhanced motivation was associated with a trial-by-trial correlation with the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the nucleus accumbens and a subject-by-subject correlation with the BOLD signal in the amygdala. Our data dovetails well with the animal literature and sheds light on the neural control of vigor.

N-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation: An empirical study

We report an empirical study of n-gram posterior probability confidence measures for statistical machine translation (SMT). We first describe an efficient and practical algorithm for rapidly computing n-gram posterior probabilities from large translation word lattices. These probabilities are shown to be a good predictor of whether or not the n-gram is found in human reference translations, motivating their use as a confidence measure for SMT. Comprehensive n-gram precision and word coverage measurements are presented for a variety of different language pairs, domains and conditions. We analyze the effect on reference precision of using single or multiple references, and compare the precision of posteriors computed from k-best lists to those computed over the full evidence space of the lattice. We also demonstrate improved confidence by combining multiple lattices in a multi-source translation framework. © 2012 The Author(s).

Statistics anxiety, trait anxiety, learning behavior, and academic performance

The present study investigated the relationship between statistics anxiety, individual characteristics (e.g., trait anxiety and learning strategies), and academic performance. Students enrolled in a statistics course in psychology (N=147) filled in a questionnaire on statistics anxiety, trait anxiety, interest in statistics, mathematical selfconcept, learning strategies, and procrastination. Additionally, their performance in the examination was recorded. The structural equation model showed that statistics anxiety held a crucial role as the strongest direct predictor of performance. Students with higher statistics anxiety achieved less in the examination and showed higher procrastination scores. Statistics anxiety was related indirectly to spending less effort and time on learning. Trait anxiety was related positively to statistics anxiety and, counterintuitively, to academic performance. This result can be explained by the heterogeneity of the measure of trait anxiety. The part of trait anxiety that is unrelated to the specific part of statistics anxiety correlated positively with performance.

Probability-Matching Predictors for Extreme Extremes

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the three-parameter {\mu, \sigma, \xi} Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The predictor is designed to provide matching probability exactly for the GPD in both the extreme heavy-tailed limit and the extreme bounded-tail limit, whilst giving a good approximation to probability matching at all intermediate values of the tail parameter \xi. The predictor is valid even for small sample sizes N, even as small as N = 3. The main purpose of this paper is to present the somewhat lengthy derivations which draw heavily on the theory of hypergeometric functions, particularly the Lauricella functions. Whilst the construction is inspired by the Bayesian approach to the prediction problem, it considers the case of vague prior information about both parameters and model, and all derivations are undertaken using sampling theory.

Temporal Coherence of Chlorophyll a during a Spring Phytoplankton Bloom in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir, China

Algal bloom phenomenon was defined as "the rapid growth of one or more phytoplankton species which leads to a rapid increase in the biomass of phytoplankton", yet most estimates of temporal coherence are based on yearly or monthly sampling frequencies and little is known of how synchrony varies among phytoplankton or of the causes of temporal coherence during spring algal bloom. In this study, data of chlorophyll a and related environmental parameters were weekly gathered at 15 sampling sites in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) to evaluate patterns of temporal coherence for phytoplankton during spring bloom and test if spatial heterogeneity of nutrient and inorganic suspended particles within a single ecosystem influences synchrony of spring phytoplankton dynamics. There is a clear spatial and temporal variation in chlorophyll a across Xiangxi Bay. The degree of temporal coherence for chlorophyll a between pairs of sites located in Xiangxi Bay ranged from -0.367 to 0.952 with mean and median values of 0.349 and 0.321, respectively. Low levels of temporal coherence were often detected among the three stretches of the bay (Down reach, middle reach and upper reach), while high levels of temporal coherence were often found within the same reach of the bay. The relative difference of DIN between pair sites was the strong predictor of temporal coherence for chlorophyll a in down and middle reach of the bay, while the relative difference in Anorganic Suspended Solids was the important factor regulating temporal coherence in middle and upper reach. Contrary to many studies, these results illustrate that, in a small geographic area (a single reservoir bay of approximately 25 km), spatial heterogeneity influence synchrony of phytoplankton dynamics during spring bloom and local processes may override the effects of regional processes or dispersal.

Low-rank optimization with trace norm penalty

The paper addresses the problem of low-rank trace norm minimization. We propose an algorithm that alternates between fixed-rank optimization and rank-one updates. The fixed-rank optimization is characterized by an efficient factorization that makes the trace norm differentiable in the search space and the computation of duality gap numerically tractable. The search space is nonlinear but is equipped with a Riemannian structure that leads to efficient computations. We present a second-order trust-region algorithm with a guaranteed quadratic rate of convergence. Overall, the proposed optimization scheme converges superlinearly to the global solution while maintaining complexity that is linear in the number of rows and columns of the matrix. To compute a set of solutions efficiently for a grid of regularization parameters we propose a predictor-corrector approach that outperforms the naive warm-restart approach on the fixed-rank quotient manifold. The performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated on problems of low-rank matrix completion and multivariate linear regression. © 2013 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.