Precipitation over the past four centuries in the Dieshan Mountains as inferred from tree rings: An introduction to an HHT-based method

To improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon system, we developed a hydroclimate reconstruction in a marginal monsoon shoulder region for the period prior to the industrial era. Here, we present the first moisture sensitive tree-ring chronology, spanning 501 years for the Dieshan Mountain area, a boundary region of the Asian summer monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. This reconstruction was derived from 101 cores of 68 old-growth Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) trees. We introduce a Hilbert–Huang Transform (HHT) based standardization method to develop the tree-ring chronology, which has the advantages of excluding non-climatic disturbances in individual tree-ring series. Based on the reliable portion of the chronology, we reconstructed the annual (prior July to current June) precipitation history since 1637 for the Dieshan Mountain area and were able to explain 41.3% of the variance. The extremely dry years in this reconstruction were also found in historical documents and are also associated with El Niño episodes. Dry periods were reconstructed for 1718–1725, 1766–1770 and 1920–1933, whereas 1782–1788 and 1979–1985 were wet periods. The spatial signatures of these events were supported by data from other marginal regions of the Asian summer monsoon. Over the past four centuries, out-of-phase relationships between hydroclimate variations in the Dieshan Mountain area and far western Mongolia were observed during the 1718–1725 and 1766–1770 dry periods and the 1979–1985 wet period.

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (−0.52 ± 0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (−0.18 ± 0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.

Characteristics and experiences of past participants in the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses

There are nearly 200,000 licensed practicing nurses in the state of Texas, representing one-tenth of the nations' workforce. The prevalence of substance abuse among nurses is estimated to range between six and 20 percent in this professional group.^ Since March 1987, the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses (TPAPN) has offered intervention, education, support and monitoring to nurses in Texas whose practice has become impaired due to substance abuse and/or mental illness. Since then approximately 44 percent of nurses who voluntarily signed participation agreements successfully completed the program; fifty-six percent have not. One determinant of completion for those nurses identified as chemically dependent is abstinence from mood altering substances. Other helping professions report higher rates of abstinence two years following treatment.^ The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between relapse, demographics, treatment variables, work setting, "stress" indicators and support factors for nurses who participated in TPAPN. A questionnaire was mailed to 1000 randomly selected nurses who had signed agreements since 1987 and were no longer active in the program. More than 41% of the questionnaires were returned undeliverable.^ Recipients of the questionnaire were known only to TPAPN, never to the investigator. All information was received anonymously except when the participant chose to sign the questionnaire. A cover letter explaining the study and inviting participation was enclosed. Completion and return of the questionnaire was considered consent to participate.^ Findings demonstrated a significant relationship between relapse and opiates as the drug of choice for past participants in the Texas Peer Assistance Program for Nurses. Significant associations were found among factors such as control at work, support, physical complaints, job security, self-esteem and employment in this sample. Respondents shared copious written comments about their experiences in TPAPN. These data were analyzed using qualitative methods and compared with similar studies of recovering nurses. Further research with nurses whose practice has been affected by abuse of chemical and mental illness is warranted. ^

Nuclear power plants and childhood leukaemia: lessons from the past and future directions

In the 1980s, leukaemia clusters were discovered around nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom. This raised public concern about the risk of childhood leukaemia near nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, the topic has been well-studied, but methodological limitations make results difficult to interpret. Our review aims to: (1.) summarise current evidence on the relationship between NPPs and risk of childhood leukaemia, with a focus on the Swiss CANUPIS (Childhood cancer and nuclear power plants in Switzerland) study; (2.) discuss the limitations of previous research; and (3.) suggest directions for future research. There are various reasons that previous studies produced inconclusive results. These include: inadequate study designs and limited statistical power due to the low prevalence of exposure (living near a NPP) and outcome (leukaemia); lack of accurate exposure estimates; limited knowledge of the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, particularly of vulnerable time windows and latent periods; use of residential location at time of diagnosis only and lack of data on address histories; and inability to adjust for potential confounders. We conclude that risk of childhood leukaemia around NPPs should continue to be monitored and that study designs should be improved and standardised. Data should be pooled internationally to increase the statistical power. More research needs to be done on other putative risk factors for childhood cancer such as low-dose ionizing radiation, exposure to certain chemicals and exposure to infections. Studies should be designed to allow examining multiple exposures.

Globalized Antiquity: Uses and Perceptions of the Past in South Asia, Mesoamerica, and Europe

„Antike“ ist keine europäische Exklusivität: Das Buch zeigt, wie in Südasien, Mesoamerika und Europa je eigene Antiken konstruiert werden. In den untersuchten vorkolonialen, kolonialen und postkolonialen Zusammenhängen wird die Antike durch die zeitgenössische Geschichtspolitik stark mitbestimmt. Der Vergleich lässt die Verflechtung der Vorstellungen über die Vergangenheit zwischen „klassischer“ europäischer, indischer und mesoamerikanischer Antike von der frühen Neuzeit bis in die Gegenwart erkennen. Das Buch bietet Denkanstöße für Personen, die sich mit historisch interessierter Kulturanthropologie, kritischer Altertumswissenschaft und Globalgeschichte beschäftigen.

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

There were several centennial-scale fluctuations in the climate and oceanography of the North Atlantic region over the past 1,000 years, including a period of relative cooling from about AD 1450 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age1. These variations may be linked to changes in solar irradiance, amplified through feedbacks including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation2. Changes in the return limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are reflected in water properties at the base of the mixed layer south of Iceland. Here we reconstruct thermocline temperature and salinity in this region from AD 818 to 1780 using paired δ18O and Mg/Ca ratio measurements of foraminifer shells from a subdecadally resolved marine sediment core. The reconstructed centennial-scale variations in hydrography correlate with variability in total solar irradiance. We find a similar correlation in a simulation of climate over the past 1,000 years. We infer that the hydrographic changes probably reflect variability in the strength of the subpolar gyre associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, in the simulation, low solar irradiance promotes the development of frequent and persistent atmospheric blocking events, in which a quasi-stationary high-pressure system in the eastern North Atlantic modifies the flow of the westerly winds. We conclude that this process could have contributed to the consecutive cold winters documented in Europe during the Little Ice Age.

A 2600-year record of past polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) deposition at Holzmaar (Eifel, Germany)

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a proxy for climate- and human-related historical fire activity which has rarely been used beyond 1800 AD. We explored the concentration and composition patterns of PAHs together with other proxies (charcoal, C, N, S, δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S) in a sediment core of Holzmaar as indicators of variations in climate and anthropogenic activity over the past 2600 years. The concentrations of pyrogenic PAHs remained low (< 500 ng g− 1) from the pre-Roman Iron Age (600 BC) until the first significant increases to ca. 1000–1800 ng g− 1 between 1700 and 1750 AD related to regional iron production. The highest increases in pyrogenic PAH concentrations occurred with industrialization peaking in the 1960s. PAH concentrations in most recent sediments decreased to pre-industrial levels because of emission control measures and the switch from coal to oil and gas as major fuel sources. Fluxes of PAHs (mg km− 2 yr− 1) increased in the order Migration Period and Early Middle Ages < pre-Roman Iron Ages < Roman era < High Middle Ages and Renaissance < pre-industrial modern period < industrial modern period. The changes of PAHs fluxes in pre-industrial times parallel known changes in local, regional and continental anthropogenic activity and climatic variations or their interactions across these historical periods. Perylene, a mainly biologically produced compound, was the dominant PAH in pre-industrial times. The Migration Period and the Early Middle Ages witnessed the most profound and simultaneous changes to the sedimentary organic matter properties in the past 2600 years including the lowest PAH fluxes because of reduced human activity and more negative δ13C and δ15N values probably in response to colder and wetter conditions.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Summer Temperature Trend Over the Past Two Millennia Using Air Content in Himalayan Ice

Two Himalayan ice cores display a factor-two decreasing trend of air content over the past two millennia, in contrast to the relatively stable values in Greenland and Antarctica ice cores over the same period. Because the air content can be related with the relative frequency and intensity of melt phenomena, its variations along the Himalayan ice cores provide an indication of summer temperature trend. Our reconstruction point toward an unprecedented warming trend in the 20th century but does not depict the usual trends associated with "Medieval Warm Period" (MWP), or "Little Ice Age" (LIA).

The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae Eruption Signal Derived from Multiple Ice Core Records: Greatest Volcanic Sulfate Event of the Past 700 Years

We combined 33 ice core records, 13 from the Northern Hemisphere and 20 from the Southern Hemisphere, to determine the timing and magnitude of the great Kuwae eruption in the mid-15th century. We extracted volcanic deposition signals by applying a high-pass loess filter to the time series and examining peaks that exceed twice the 31 year running median absolute deviation. By accounting for the dating uncertainties associated with each record, these ice core records together reveal a large volcanogenic acid deposition event during 1453 - 1457 A. D. The results suggest only one major stratospheric injection from the Kuwae eruption and confirm previous findings that the Kuwae eruption took place in late 1452 or early 1453, which may serve as a reference to evaluate and improve the dating of ice core records. The average total sulfate deposition from the Kuwae eruption was 93 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 25 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland. The deposition in Greenland was probably underestimated since it was the average value of only two northern Greenland sites with very low accumulation rates. After taking the spatial variation into consideration, the average Kuwae deposition in Greenland was estimated to be 45 kg SO4/km(2). By applying the same technique to the other major eruptions of the past 700 years our result suggests that the Kuwae eruption was the largest stratospheric sulfate event of that period, probably surpassing the total sulfate deposition of the Tambora eruption of 1815, which produced 59 kg SO4/km(2) in Antarctica and 50 kg SO4/km(2) in Greenland.

Antarctic Temperatures Over the Past Two Centuries from Ice Cores

We present a reconstruction of Antarctic mean surface temperatures over the past two centuries based on water stable isotope records from high-resolution, precisely dated ice cores. Both instrumental and reconstructed temperatures indicate large interannual to decadal scale variability, with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the main Antarctic continent and the Antarctic Peninsula region. Comparative analysis of the instrumental Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean temperature record and the reconstruction suggests that at longer timescales, temperatures over the Antarctic continent vary in phase with the SH mean. Our reconstruction suggests that Antarctic temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees C since the late nineteenth century. The variability and the long-term trends are strongly modulated by the SH Annular Mode in the atmospheric circulation.